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Olney on David Wright

Gwreck Jan 18 2012 11:30 AM

Today at ESPN: Olney wrote: A longtime agent who has had clients in the free-agent market this winter was asked recently about how much he had heard from the New York Mets. "Not a lot," he said. "It's like they're in a holding pattern." They have virtually no money to spend as their ownership wades through its legal morass. But the future of their most prominent player, David Wright, can't be placed on hold for much longer; soon, the Mets will face a crossroads on what to do with the third baseman. Wright is 29 years old and will make $15 million during the 2012 season; the Mets hold a $16 million option for 2013. Last season, Wright hit .254 with 14 homers and a .771 OPS, the worst of his career. But keep in mind that the lineup around Wright has been thin, generally, and he has played all the home games of his career in parks favorable toward pitchers -- first in Shea Stadium and then, in the last three seasons, Citi Field. The Mets have reconstructed the dimensions of their home ballpark, and Wright and other hitters should be helped by this. Wright's OPS+ has always been good; it was 114 in 2011. The Mets have three options for how to handle Wright: 1. They could keep him with the intent of re-signing him beyond 2013 and using him as a rebuilding block and a legacy player. Wright is the franchise's most recognizable and most marketable player, and in the next few seasons he may well accumulate the 250th homer, 1,500th hit and 1,000th RBI of his career. If the Mets want to re-sign Wright beyond the 2013 season, he figures to cost them something in the neighborhood of $15 million-$20 million annually. 2. The Mets could keep Wright through the end of the 2013 season, and then re-evaluate his status as he reaches free agency. This is how they handled Jose Reyes, who left the Mets to sign with the Miami Marlins. 3. The Mets could attempt to trade Wright sometime in the next 18 months -- although they may be frustrated with the quality of the offers they receive. In recent years, the Milwaukee Brewers had no success in trying to get an acceptable package for Prince Fielder, as he neared free agency, and this winter, the Chicago White Sox and the Chicago Cubs have been disappointed with the offers they got for John Danks and Matt Garza, respectively. The White Sox decided to re-sign Danks rather than taking 50 cents on the dollar in trade value; the Cubs are still trying to decide what to do with Garza. Generally speaking, the quality of third basemen around the majors is weak; teams have demonstrated interest in Wright, and it's possible that the Mets could get at least one young player they like in return, as they did in trading Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler. The guess here is that Wright will be marketed and traded in July. For the readers: if you were in Sandy Alderson's position, what would you do? I emailed some talent evaluators for their assessments of Wright, and these are their responses: From an AL evaluator: "He will have value at the trade deadline if healthy and performing as usual. He will bring compensation as a free agent, so his value to Mets is fairly high, and a team acquiring him will have to give up more than the value of a couple of high draft picks. He's a very good player, but not consistent enough to be a star on offense and defense. His defense has gone backwards and get into funks offensively. He'll produce numbers, and most every team would want him, but not as a No. 3 or a No. 4 hitter on a good team." From an NL evaluator: "Wright's value is limited by the lack of control and expensive salary. He's not a great defender and hasn't cleared 20 HR in two of the past three seasons. He's been trending downward by most statistical metrics and our scouts are concerned his swing has gotten long and slow, leading to a high strikeout ratio. Think about it this way: Aramis Ramirez just signed a 3-year, $36 million deal with the Brewers. Ramirez is a better hitter and similar defender to Wright -- who is due $31 million for the next two seasons if his option is exercised -- so what are you paying for? Make-up? Fame?" From an AL scout: "David Wright is a potential coup. He's eerily similar in value to the Seattle version of Adrian Beltre, although he (and everyone else in baseball) is not the defender that Beltre is. He and Beltre both were suffocated by their home parks, Citi Field and Safeco Field, respectively. Teams should have pounced and offered Beltre a premium multi-year deal when he left Seattle originally. If available, I'd trade and sign Wright now. Another caveat with Wright is that he's performed and handled himself admirably in New York, which bodes well for any type of market going forward."

G-Fafif Jan 18 2012 11:35 AM Re: Olney on David Wright

They could keep him with the intent of re-signing him beyond 2013 and using him as a rebuilding block and a legacy player. Legacy player...is that a thing?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 18 2012 11:37 AM Re: Olney on David Wright

G-Fafif wrote: They could keep him with the intent of re-signing him beyond 2013 and using him as a rebuilding block and a legacy player. Legacy player...is that a thing? I think it means that they promise to draft all his kids, regardless of how lazy they are or how bad their strikeout rate is.

Edgy MD Jan 18 2012 11:39 AM Re: Olney on David Wright

But the future of their most prominent player, David Wright, can't be placed on hold for much longer; soon, the Mets will face a crossroads on what to do with the third baseman. They have control of him for two more seasons, meaning 1.67 seasons to decide whether or not to trade him and two seasons to decide whether or not to extend/re-sign him. The only real pressure here is on writers needing to write about something.

Mets – Willets Point Jan 18 2012 11:41 AM Re: Olney on David Wright

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: G-Fafif wrote: They could keep him with the intent of re-signing him beyond 2013 and using him as a rebuilding block and a legacy player. Legacy player...is that a thing? I think it means that they promise to draft all his kids, regardless of how lazy they are or how bad their strikeout rate is. His brother was a '59, Fred Dorfman.

Edgy MD Jan 18 2012 11:42 AM Re: Olney on David Wright

Ding! Two hundred and control of the board to Willets.

Mets – Willets Point Jan 18 2012 11:48 AM Re: Olney on David Wright

Edgy DC wrote: Ding! Two hundred and control of the board to Willets. Oh no, I deserve no praise for lifting dialogue from Animal House.

metirish Jan 18 2012 11:53 AM Re: Olney on David Wright

I guess a lot will ride of the silly dimension changes? If Wrighty hits 30 home runs and knocks in 120 then what? big ass contract is what.

Ashie62 Jan 18 2012 01:36 PM Re: Olney on David Wright

David's numbers are in decline and and he's pushing 30..More value signing him NOW, then doing the Reyes dance.

Ashie62 Jan 18 2012 01:37 PM Re: Olney on David Wright

metirish wrote: I guess a lot will ride of the silly dimension changes? If Wrighty hits 30 home runs and knocks in 120 then what? big ass contract is what. Carl Crawford money.

jwmann2 Jan 21 2012 01:54 AM Re: Olney on David Wright

Regardless of what the Mets do with him, I really hope he can return to the David Wright circa 2006-2007. Luckily, there are no third baseman driving up his asking price aside from A-Rod who has had that deal for years.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 21 2012 08:53 AM Re: Olney on David Wright

jwmann2 wrote: Regardless of what the Mets do with him, I really hope he can return to the David Wright circa 2006-2007. Luckily, there are no third baseman driving up his asking price aside from A-Rod who has had that deal for years. There's a few. Ramirez' bat has been more dependable, with a (sadly) comparable glove over the last few. Zimmerman will definitely be using Wright for salary leverage in the next year. [And welcome aBordick, Ohio.]

MFS62 Jan 21 2012 09:11 AM Re: Olney on David Wright

Yeah, newperson from O-Hi-Yuh. (You're far enough South in the state to pronounce it that way) Stand up on that virtual table in the middle of the room and sing your school fight song. Later

metsguyinmichigan Jan 21 2012 10:55 AM Re: Olney on David Wright

Welcome aBordick! I have a special place in my heart for Cincy!

Edgy MD Jan 21 2012 12:54 PM Re: Olney on David Wright

Mike Bordick: also from Ohio.

Ashie62 Jan 21 2012 01:28 PM Re: Olney on David Wright

Marge Schott says hi!

themetfairy Jan 21 2012 03:10 PM Re: Olney on David Wright

Welcome!