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Eastern Lineups

Edgy MD Jan 19 2012 08:46 PM

A dispute over the viability of the Met offense came up in the outfield thread. I had actually done some wrestling with this question. Giving guys five points for being the class of the division at his position and one point for hauling up the rear, the Phils seem to have the best O. The Mets came in fourth, but it's really the Phils and everybody else. (I don't think the lineups have changed much.) A couple of points: [list][*]Most of these projections come from the Bill James projection system. Where I couldn't find projections from him for an athlete or two, I tried to draw from some other authoritative system offered by Baseball Ingestus or Fartgaphs. [/*:m] [*]We're arguing about runs in the outfield thread, but here we're measuring the everyday lineups in their totality, offense and defense included. [/*:m] [*]Obviously, the final tallies don't account for the degree of difference between two players. The top guy earns his team five points and the next guy earns four whether there are 2.0 or 0.2 WAR between them. You hope most of that comes out in the wash, but I didn't count that. (Maybe somebody would like to add the raw WAR up.) [/*:m] [*]Clearly, Washington could sign Fielder tomorrow and invalidate this whole thing. [/*:m] [*]I tried to arbitrarily tweek the numbers up or down a few decimal points based on the quality of the available backups, especially if the guy is only projected to play 120 or so games. [/*:m] [*]The Mets actually look better than a lot of teams healthwise, being younger and with a chronic guy like Murphy never having been operated on. But who knows if Wright and Davis come back whole. And so much of these health factors go out the window once the shooting starts (to mix a metaphor). [/*:m] [*]I nonetheless feel like the Phils are kinda maybe getting shorted at first, with Howard out for at least the first month, but having Jim Thome and Ty Wigginton to bail him out. [/*:m] [*]Strange in general to see such low projections at first. The Mets win by virtue of having far and away the best fielder, I think. [/*:m] [*]So much depends on thinks breaking well healthwise for the Phils. They may project the highest, but they are easily older and have they're firstbaseman beginning the season broken and rightfield and leftfield recovering from herniae. [/*:m] [*]Sucks that Duda is so outclassed by the competition in right, but his defense drops him out of the running right out of the gate. I guess right is the opposite of first. In both cases, the glove separates the Mets from the field, but in different directions. [/*:m] [*]Bay, on the other hand, is barely on the map in left. Outfield doesn't look to be our strong suit. (Wasn't in 2000, either.) [/*:m] [*]I think the Braves are going with Pastornicky at short, but they've signed two experienced shortstops, so they may open with one of them. I kinda hope that they do. [/*:m] [*]Basing the projections on what players in similar stages of their careers have done in the past, they kind of account for psychological variables, but I wonder how much. Do Heyward's number reflect just how miserable it must be to be about to rocket to stardom and have an awful sophomore year? Moreover, there are broader context psychological factors at play: [list][*]The Braves' utter collapse;[/*:m] [*]The Mets' financial disarray;[/*:m] [*]The Marlins' financial rebirth;[/*:m] [*]The Nats' ramping up the pitching;[/*:m] [*]The Mets' new walls.[/*:m][/list:u] Who knows? [/*:m] [*]While I tried to factor in the backups, where most relevant, I haven't bothered ranking benches. That's beyond my pay grade. I'll just add that some teams have invested in them more than others. [/*:m] [*]Ryan Zimmerman is the best player in the division? Really?[/*:m][/list:u] Anyhow, here's your National League East. Team Catcher AVG OBP SLG OpS WAR Rank Atlanta McCann .276 .360 .484 .844 5.3 1 Miami Buck .239 .309 .409 .718 2.0 5 New York Thole/Nickeas .278/.214 .353/.286 .369/.304 .722/.590 2.5 4 Philadelphia Ruiz .271 .360 .400 .760 2.8 3 Washington Ramos/Flores .270/.209 .326/.305 .419/.314 .745/.619 3.3 2 Team First Base AVG OBP SLG OpS WAR Rank Atlanta Freeman .286 .350 .459 .809 2.4 4 Miami Sanchez .276 .360 .452 .812 2.9 2 New York Davis .288 .377 .504 .881 4.1 1 Philadelphia Howard .266 .360 .525 .885 2.5 3 Washington Laroche/Marrero .255/.280 .333/.339 .445/.400 .778/.739 1.3 5 Team Second Base AVG OBP SLG OpS WAR Rank Atlanta Uggla .251 .334 .473 .807 3.6 4 Miami Infante .291 .335 .401 .736 3.0 5 New York Murphy/Turner .302/.271 .355./.335 .456/.369 .811/.704 3.8 2 Philadelphia Ultley .280 .375 .475 .850 5.3 1 Washington Espinosa .248 .329 .445 .774 3.8 2 Team Third Base AVG OBP SLG OpS WAR Rank Atlanta Jones .278 .378 .461 .839 3.6 4 Miami Ramirez .298 .379 .489 .868 5.1 3 New York Wright .286 .375 .487 .862 5.3 2 Philadelphia Polanco .284 .337 .370 .707 2.7 5 Washington Zimmerman .291 .363 .486 .849 7.0 1 Team Shortstop AVG OBP SLG OpS WAR Rank Atlanta Pastornicky .294 .329 .374 .703 3.0 3 Miami Reyes .303 .358 .447 .805 4.8 1 New York Tejada .256 .330 .323 .653 2.6 4 Philadelphia Rollins .262 .328 .417 .745 3.7 2 Washington Desmond .268 .317 .394 .711 2.0 5 Team Left Field AVG OBP SLG OpS WAR Rank Atlanta Prado .289 .339 .423 .762 2.7 3 Miami Morrison .265 .363 .475 .838 3.2 2 New York Bay .257 .355 .436 .791 1.9 5 Philadelphia Mayberry/Brown .275/.275 .313/.355 .439/.455 .752/.810 3.5 1 Washington Morse .291 .347 .505 .852 2.5 4 Team Center Field AVG OBP SLG OpS WAR Rank Atlanta Bourn .273 .339 .353 .692 4.1 2 Miami Bonifacio .276 .338 .354 .692 3.4 4 New York Torres .255 .332 .405 .737 3.5 3 Philadelphia Victorino .277 .344 .441 .785 5.0 1 Washington Bernadina .261 .327 .399 .726 2.5 5 Team Right Field AVG OBP SLG OpS WAR Rank Atlanta Heyward .269 .374 .457 .831 5.0 2 Miami Stanton .273 .366 .568 .934 5.5 1 New York Duda .279 .364 .488 .852 3.0 5 Philadelphia Pence .292 .349 .486 .835 4.9 3 Washington Werth .259 .360 .451 .811 4.5 4 Team Total Philadelphia 29 Atlanta 25 Miami 25 New York 22 Washington 20

smg58 Jan 19 2012 09:09 PM Re: Eastern Lineups

In terms of WAR, we're about three wins behind the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins, and on an even keel with the Nats. Apparently, the difference could be made up simply by Duda being close to average in right field. In other words, I hope he's worked like hell on his defense over the offseason. Bay's bat showing up would erase the difference, too.

Edgy MD Jan 19 2012 09:22 PM Re: Eastern Lineups

Only spots in the division profiling as below 2.0 WAR is the Mets in left (1.9) and the Nats at first (1.3). They really should take a second look at their Prince Fielder Fund. Either of the The Phils backups at first could do better than that. The Mets, of course, more or less have firstbasemen at catcher, second, and right.

Ceetar Jan 19 2012 09:42 PM Re: Eastern Lineups

see, now this list at least makes sense to me, unlike the ESPN one. Even if I disagree with the value placed on defense. Or more specifically, the expectations of defense. I think at the end of the day, Duda will be the second most valuable RFer, but it'll be close with Stanton. Left field also looks up for grabs.I don't think I'd be surprised if any of those five came out on top. Well a little if it's Bay maybe.

Edgy MD Jan 20 2012 07:29 AM Re: Eastern Lineups

That's a big assertion. But I think the WAR projections can be pretty volatile, as they don't come directly from James, I think, but from fan projections informed by James' projections. They're informed fans, but the biases probably don't cancel each other out.

attgig Jan 20 2012 08:45 AM Re: Eastern Lineups

in terms of just summing up wars: [table:3lpwyqu6][tr:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]philly[/td:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]30.4[/td:3lpwyqu6][/tr:3lpwyqu6] [tr:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]miami[/td:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]29.9[/td:3lpwyqu6][/tr:3lpwyqu6] [tr:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]atl[/td:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]29.7[/td:3lpwyqu6][/tr:3lpwyqu6] [tr:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]nationals[/td:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]26.9[/td:3lpwyqu6][/tr:3lpwyqu6] [tr:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]mets[/td:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]26.7[/td:3lpwyqu6][/tr:3lpwyqu6][/table:3lpwyqu6]

attgig Jan 20 2012 08:47 AM Re: Eastern Lineups

Ceetar wrote: Left field also looks up for grabs.I don't think I'd be surprised if any of those five came out on top. Well a little if it's Bay maybe. WOW! a bit of reality in Ceetar! (though just a little :-P)

Ceetar Jan 20 2012 08:52 AM Re: Eastern Lineups

attgig wrote: Left field also looks up for grabs.I don't think I'd be surprised if any of those five came out on top. Well a little if it's Bay maybe. WOW! a bit of reality in Ceetar! (though just a little :-P) It's not reality either way if it hasn't happened yet. If you really think about it, it's sort of insane to have spirited arguments about future events. Are we all Miss Cleo's around here?

attgig Jan 20 2012 09:05 AM Re: Eastern Lineups

YA MON!

Edgy MD Jan 20 2012 09:11 AM Re: Eastern Lineups

Ceetar wrote: Ceetar wrote: Left field also looks up for grabs.I don't think I'd be surprised if any of those five came out on top. Well a little if it's Bay maybe. WOW! a bit of reality in Ceetar! (though just a little :-P) It's not reality either way if it hasn't happened yet. If you really think about it, it's sort of insane to have spirited arguments about future events. Are we all Miss Cleo's around here? Bullshit. It's awesome.

Ceetar Jan 20 2012 09:12 AM Re: Eastern Lineups

I didn't say it wasn't awesome.