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The Next To Fall

Newt Gingrich

1 votes

John Huntsman

2 votes

Ron Paul

0 votes

Rick Perry

6 votes

Mitt Romney

0 votes

Rick Santorum

0 votes

None of the Above

4 votes

Mets – Willets Point Jan 09 2012 09:10 PM

Just a quick poll about which candidate(s) will drop out of the Republican Party presidential campaign after New Hampshire. Apparently, Hunstman is surging in the polls in the Granite State.

Edgy DC Jan 09 2012 09:11 PM Re: The Next To Fall

Perry's the best bet, but I think he's focusing on South Carolinny, anyhow. I'm going with none-of-the-above. Perry's definitely my number two choice. Go, Hunty.

Nymr83 Jan 09 2012 09:25 PM Re: The Next To Fall

None. Huntsman is the only possibility because I think that Gingrich, Perry, and Santorum are all waiting for South Carolina. Huntsman could drop with a particularly poor showing in NH, but I'd think he'd be incentivized to hang around at least through Florida. Paul is in it for ideology even if he can't win votes, I'd expect he'll be the 2nd to last guy out of the race only once it becomes crystal clear that its Romney vs X. Its even possible that if Romney "locks it up" early that Paul will outlast everyone else here, he is probably at 80 years old the only one without an incentive to call it quits at some point just to save face for future attempts at office (or a job at FOX news.) Romney is in it until the convention (I think if he doesn't win the nomination outright, he goes to the convention without having officially conceded yet.) Of the Santorum/Perry/Gingrich trio, I could see Gingrich gone if he doesn't win (or at least finish ahead of these other two) in SC or FL... He'll be gone once its clear he won't be the "Conservative Anti-Romney (tm)". I think Perry also wants to see Florida through, but could go even further without a victory (he has the dough.) If I'm predicting the order they drop out in: Gingrich (after SC), Huntsman (after Florida), Perry (after "super tuesday"), Santorum (after Romney can't lose mathmatically but before the convention), Paul (just before the convention which he won't attend in protest), Romney (nominee)

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 09 2012 10:10 PM Re: The Next To Fall

It would really take, what, a win or near-win for Huntsman to stick around through Florida, no? Do you really think that happens? (Hell, I hope it does, but... well, not bloody likely, in Romney's kindasorta backyard.)

Edgy DC Jan 09 2012 10:25 PM Re: The Next To Fall

Momentum is everything. If you do better in State B than you did in State A, you'd be a fool to quit. A fool! So now, with the field taking turns beating on Romney, Huntsman has a chance at an improved finish, which, after a weak seventh in Iowa, would mean anything. But a second or third would mean serious ka-ching coming into his coffers. A respectable fourth would still demonstrate enough mo to keep him fighting for another day. I, personally, would love to debate Ron Paul.

TransMonk Jan 10 2012 07:18 AM Re: The Next To Fall

I went none as well. I imagine many of these peeps are waiting to see what the Southerners say about them in SC.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 10 2012 07:26 AM Re: The Next To Fall

Yeah, Huntsman was the only one of them banking on New Hampshire. Even if Perry only gets 1% he's gonna stick around through South Carolina. So... maybe Huntsman will drop out, but I don't think he will. He's really the only possibility I see for an exit this week. I think there's a good chance that South Carolina will finish off Perry.

Ashie62 Jan 10 2012 09:27 PM Re: The Next To Fall

Good call Perry 1 percent 17 for Huntsman

Mets – Willets Point Jan 15 2012 08:45 PM Re: The Next To Fall

Hunstman out.

Frayed Knot Jan 15 2012 09:47 PM Re: The Next To Fall

I'm surprised at the timing of this coming, as it does, on the heels of his decent showing in NH, but hardly at the inevitable decision. Huntsman started with poor name recognition, had his decision to "sleep with the enemy" by accepting an ambassadorship in the Obama administration held against him by some, and finally I just don't think he had the personality required to break out of a large pack like the Repubs have now even though his conservative credentials - supposedly in demand from the party faithful these days - are as solid as anyone's. Being the 'other Mormon' in the race probably didn't help either. 3rd place in NH = a 'Ticket to Ride'? ... more like 'Nowhere Man' Plus I guess the tea leaves in SC weren't giving him good signs. My prediction is that Newt is next out after his jugular gets accidently sliced open by the sharp edge of his wife's hair when he bends down to give her a peck on the cheek.

Mets – Willets Point Jan 15 2012 11:52 PM Re: The Next To Fall

Frayed Knot wrote: My prediction is that Newt is next out after his jugular gets accidently sliced open by the sharp edge of his wife's hair when he bends down to give her a peck on the cheek. With another divorce for the "family values" candidate to follow?

Edgy DC Jan 16 2012 06:31 AM Re: The Next To Fall

If he's the family values candidate, we all in trouble. But he's rebranded himself four of five times already in the campaign, so why not? Being the second Mormon is a real killer for Huntsman. I thought maybe he'd stay in, just because there's no real hope of a gracious bow getting his profile raised as a VP candidate. Romney has no real likelihood of choosing him.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 16 2012 07:06 AM Re: The Next To Fall

I think Perry is most likely to be the next to leave.

G-Fafif Jan 16 2012 07:26 AM Re: The Next To Fall

Something about a candidate who had no shot making a show of dropping out and endorsing the front-runner, while it's perfectly accepted protocol in politics, is strange. Like the Nationals calling a press conference in July and throwing their support to the Phillies.

themetfairy Jan 16 2012 08:46 AM Re: The Next To Fall

G-Fafif wrote: Something about a candidate who had no shot making a show of dropping out and endorsing the front-runner, while it's perfectly accepted protocol in politics, is strange. Like the Nationals calling a press conference in July and throwing their support to the Phillies. Well, it's not like the Phillies have the potential power to give the Nationals an ambassadorship or anything.

G-Fafif Jan 16 2012 05:32 PM Re: The Next To Fall

The Philadelphia Phillies today appointed the Washington Nationals as their Special Envoy to the National League Central. Observers dismissed the move as political payback for the Nationals laying down for the Phillies on the final Sunday of the 2007 season.

Mets – Willets Point Jan 19 2012 08:42 AM Re: The Next To Fall

Now Perry is out too. Those of you who picked both Huntsman and Perry are winners! Of course, theoretically, someone else could drop before the next primary in SC.

Valadius Jan 19 2012 08:46 AM Re: The Next To Fall

Santorum's the only one who might, and he won't.

Ashie62 Jan 19 2012 01:08 PM Re: The Next To Fall

Valadius wrote: Santorum's the only one who might, and he won't. Romney and Paul in FL. thats it.

TransMonk Jan 19 2012 01:12 PM Re: The Next To Fall

If you mean Tampa, FL in August...then Romney. That's it.

Frayed Knot Jan 19 2012 01:48 PM Re: The Next To Fall

Mets – Willets Point wrote: Those of you who picked both Huntsman and Perry are winners! I picked Huntsman and Perry as my next two ... I just had them in the opposite order. Down to four now but seeing how each has his own mini-constituency there won't be the temptation to bug out at the first downturn in the polls.

Edgy DC Jan 19 2012 02:18 PM Re: The Next To Fall

Not to be smart, but what's Gingrich's constituency? If Romney is "Most Electable Guy" (and, relatedly, "Most Moderate Guy"), and Santurum is "Most Socially Conservative Guy," and Paul is "Libertarian Flagbearer," what's Gingrich? "Idea guy"? "Proven-on-the-National-Stage Guy"? Maybe the "Little-of-Each Guy"?

TransMonk Jan 19 2012 02:22 PM Re: The Next To Fall

Just today Perry said that Newt Gingrich has "the heart of a conservative reformer" and gave him his endorsement. I call Newt the most likely to cheat on the U.S. with Canada.

Valadius Jan 19 2012 02:24 PM Re: The Next To Fall

Gingrich is "Angry Firebrand Guy." And that's what a lot of Republicans are looking for.

Frayed Knot Jan 19 2012 02:39 PM Re: The Next To Fall

Edgy DC wrote: Not to be smart, but what's Gingrich's constituency? Yeah, even as I was writing that one I was thinking that his was most difficult to define. He never was the most conservative guy on the block even back during the brief span when he was the face of the party as the one who led them out of the 40-year minority status in the House. But he still retains some good-will among at least some conservatives for that period and that, plus being the most electable* non-Romney remaining on the board, gives him a base. * I don't think he's electable in the general but there are those who do and would certainly prefer to see him rather than the Mittster battling one-on-one against Obama.

Mets – Willets Point Jan 19 2012 02:41 PM Re: The Next To Fall

Gingrich essentially shared a dual-Presidency with Clinton in the 90s. Peeps would like to see him in the big chair all on his own without a "socialist" partner interfering.

Nymr83 Jan 19 2012 03:19 PM Re: The Next To Fall

The other positive, I think, for Gingrich is that he has better debate skills than the other Republican candidates. His constituency is probably being between Romney and Santorum while painting both as less experienced. Oh, and his second wife came out today saying he wanted an 'open marriage', I don't think he's at all electable.

Edgy DC Jan 19 2012 06:15 PM Re: The Next To Fall

So I guess we're coalescing around "Proven-on-the-National-Stage Guy" for his attempted selling label. Or, maybe, more broadly, "Proven-on-the-National-Stage Conservative-ish Guy with Ideas." I'm going to give Rick Santorum an attack line and I won't even charge him for it: "I'm the real and proven conservative here. This guy just plays one on TV!" Help the candidates! Write their zingers for them!

TransMonk Jan 20 2012 07:44 AM Re: The Next To Fall

"Mr. Gingrich's second wife has come out in the press recently saying that the former speaker asked her to have an open marriage... It seems as if he may have more insights into polygamy than I do as a Mormon."

Nymr83 Jan 20 2012 07:52 AM Re: The Next To Fall

haha nice

metirish Jan 20 2012 07:56 AM Re: The Next To Fall

Not a fan of Newt but I will say this, none of this stuff seems to faze him at all, he's a talker that fella.

Edgy DC Jan 20 2012 07:59 AM Re: The Next To Fall

"We need to once again be a nation of entrepreneurs. It's a French word, Newt. I'm sorry, I know how those upset you."