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The Leadoff Spot

MFS62 Feb 23 2012 10:03 AM

OPS vs OBP. MPH vs MPG Blonds vs brunetts Aisle vs window seat. Paper vs plastic. There are many decisions we must make. But since this is a baseball board, I'll concentrate on the first. Collins has mentioned that he views Torres as his leadoff hitter. Torres had a .642 OPS last year, .312 of it OBP. Tejada had a .695 OPS last year, .360 of it OBP. Of the two, I'd rather see Tejada leading off. Who do you think will be better in that role? Do any of you numbers guys have any stats that prove the effectiveness to a lineup of one over the other? Later

smg58 Feb 23 2012 10:06 AM Re: The Leadoff Spot

I fully don't expect Torres to cut it in that position. You don't want the most likely guy to make an out (other than the pitcher) to get the most plate appearances, regardless of what other measurements of lineup effectiveness you take into consideration.

Edgy MD Feb 23 2012 10:12 AM Re: The Leadoff Spot

Yeah, but I think they're going to give him a chance to prove he's the most likely guy to make an out. There's a long-term concern at work here. As Murphy and Tejada have alternative ways they need to establish themselves, Torres is the most disposable and the least risky to expose to failure in the role. Five/six weeks into the season, if he's not getting it done, they can try other characters in the position without the burden of having been the guy who broke it.

Frayed Knot Feb 23 2012 10:12 AM Re: The Leadoff Spot

The one thing you can say about Torres is that he takes pitches/walks. His low OBA you cite from last season was tied to his unusually low (for him and for anyone) BA. Now obviously if he's going to be a .200-ish hitter for the foreseeable future then he's not going to cut it at any spot in the lineup, but with his 'walk rate' consistently at 70 - 90 points above his BA if he gets the one up to even mediocre levels then the other isn't bad at all.

Edgy MD Feb 23 2012 10:16 AM Re: The Leadoff Spot

And walk rates tend to stabilize more than batting averages.

RealityChuck Feb 23 2012 11:04 AM Re: The Leadoff Spot

Torres had a bad season last year. The numbers are not as important as what he does in 2012.

Ceetar Feb 23 2012 11:06 AM Re: The Leadoff Spot

Edgy DC wrote: And walk rates tend to stabilize more than batting averages. Yeah, it's easy to just look at 2011 for this (especially since that's basically all Tejada has), but I think you have to look at the whole set to try to figure out what teh 2012 number will be. I think Torres might be the fastest of the bunch as well, although Tejada and Murphy won't clog up the basepaths either. Maybe Tejada learns to be a better basestealer, and maybe Murphy tries to be a basestealer in that role, even though I suspect his uber-aggressiveness paired with a lack of real speed would probably be bad. Tejada's the least likely to hit for any power though, so I wouldn't mind putting him in the leadoff position where he'll have the least amount of guys on base. He's also shown a pretty good ability to foul pitches and see a lot of them. One of those epic 12 pitch AB he seems to get occasionally would be interesting leading off.

G-Fafif Feb 23 2012 11:47 AM Re: The Leadoff Spot

This thread title would be a good name for the first beer concession you see when you walk into a ballpark.

metirish Feb 23 2012 11:59 AM Re: The Leadoff Spot

Mike Francesa told Alderson that it's too much for Tejada to be the everyday SS and lead off hitter...." too much, just too much for him, he's a young guy, too much".... Francesa talks so it must be so

Fman99 Feb 23 2012 12:52 PM Re: The Leadoff Spot

I pick Mary Ann. And when I'm done with her then I pick Ginger. And Mrs. Howell? Well, any port in a storm, as they say.

TransMonk Feb 23 2012 01:07 PM Re: The Leadoff Spot

I agree that Torres should and will get the opportunity to fail there...and if he does, Tejada and Murphy are available as options. I think that Terry proved last year that he is willing to change it up and go with the hot hand. I don't have any reason to believe that he will stick with Torres if he sees someone who will better fill the role. As far as Tejada not being able to handle playing SS everyday AND being the teams leadoff hitter...I think Terry would say it best by pointing out that all of the players that he manages are Major Leaguers.

Frayed Knot Feb 23 2012 01:54 PM Re: The Leadoff Spot

Edgy DC wrote: And walk rates tend to stabilize more than batting averages. Yeah, and the point really is that his walk rate is already pretty stable and at a decent clip: .73, .75, & .91 in his 3 recent ML seasons and .90 over 4,000+ minor league PAs -- all better than average numbers. [ML Avg =~.65-.70] And if he hits .220 again he not only doesn't deserve to lead-off he doesn't deserve to even start on a regular basis. The data on Tejada is much smaller but so, hopefully, is the learning curve/ceiling.

Ceetar Feb 24 2012 08:36 AM Re: The Leadoff Spot

metirish wrote: Mike Francesa told Alderson that it's too much for Tejada to be the everyday SS and lead off hitter...." too much, just too much for him, he's a young guy, too much".... Francesa talks so it must be so Francesa picks one or two talking points and then just repeats them all Spring so he doesn't have to watch or read anything. Then he takes off all summer and spends the end of the season basically discussion the changes in those talking points over the course of the season. Broadcasting for Dummies 101.

Frayed Knot Feb 24 2012 10:00 AM Re: The Leadoff Spot

Gotta love Mushnick's comment today about how, however Mariano Rivera's retirement decision goes at the end of the year, rest assured that Francesa will have known it all along.

TheOldMole Feb 26 2012 04:41 PM Re: The Leadoff Spot

I have no confident feelings about Torres.

Edgy MD Feb 26 2012 05:07 PM Re: The Leadoff Spot

None about his fielding? None about his potential improvement over last year's version of Angel Pagan? None about his ability to fight the good fight against the demons of ADD? None about his ability to at least provide more value to the team than Pagan when combined with Ramirez? Or merely none about his ability to hold down the leadoff spot? I certainly have my doubts. But I'm OK with him being the first guy to get a chance to fail.

smg58 Feb 26 2012 06:28 PM Re: The Leadoff Spot

I will say that I think Ramirez was a super pick up that more than justifies the exchange. I'll consider it a bonus if Torres gives us anything at all with the bat.

Edgy MD Feb 26 2012 06:53 PM Re: The Leadoff Spot

I like that Sandy is so restrained in the trade market, looking fore the right deal in it's own context, and not building up the proverbial blockbuster to put them over the top.