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Michael Martinez, who played quite a bit of second base for the Phillies while Utley was out last year, has been playing there this spring and is hitting .310/.375/.483 in a small-sample-size 29 at-bats. In 2011, though, he hit just .196/.258/.282 in 234 plate appearances. A repeat of that certainly wouldn't replace Utley's production. The Phillies could just plug Wilson Valdez in there... except they traded Valdez to the Reds in January.
So the Phillies, who are aging at quite a number of positions, now face the prospect of opening yet another season without Chase Utley and without a suitable replacement. The Phillies still have that great pitching staff, but their offense could be another story.[/quote:1czde8s1]
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Edgy MD
Mar 19 2012 08:16 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Martinez has a real noodlebat, and I'd be surprised if they weren't at least tempted to go with Wigginton at second and Thome at first, at least a few times per week.
Widget played 40 games at second in 2010, the year he made the All Star team as a utility pole.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket
Mar 19 2012 08:19 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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I'll take Cliff Lee for Justin Tyrna.
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Ceetar
Mar 19 2012 08:39 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote:
I'll take Cliff Lee for Justin Tyrna. |
I'd rather their top pitching prospect.
Worth noting I think, is that their top three all posted career low ERAs. Lee and Halladay aren't exactly spring chickens.
And they lost Oswalt.. really hoping on Vance Worley there.
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Vic Sage
Mar 19 2012 09:10 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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yes to everything here about the phucking phils... aging, overrated, due for a fall, yadda yadda yadda.
But they've got a top 3 in their rotation all of whom are better than the top starter of most every other team in the league (except maybe DODGERS & GIANTS), much less the division. And other than typical ST gossip, there is no reliable indicator suggesting this is no longer true. And as long as it is, they're the team to beat. Hell, they could play ME at 2b ("put me in coach!"), and still win the division. What difference does it make who plays 2b if practically no hitter will make solid contact against the majority of their rotation?
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Ceetar
Mar 19 2012 09:16 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Vic Sage wrote:
yes to everything here about the phucking phils... aging, overrated, due for a fall, yadda yadda yadda.
But they've got a top 3 in their rotation all of whom are better than the top starter of most every other team in the league (except maybe DODGERS & GIANTS), much less the division. And other than typical ST gossip, there is no reliable indicator suggesting this is no longer true. And as long as it is, they're the team to beat. Hell, they could play ME at 2b ("put me in coach!"), and still win the division. What difference does it make who plays 2b if practically no hitter will make solid contact against the majority of their rotation? |
Because you still have to score runs and all three of those guys let up 2 runs a game. (often more) And because Vance Worley might not actually be that good and Blanton/Kendrick definitely aren't.
Because they play in a bandbox, all three of their top pitchers are almost a given to regress from career low ERAs, and two of them are on the backend of 'prime pitching age', and they have no pitching depth.
They've also been able to maximize bullpen effectiveness by having those guys go deep into games. Will age limit that? Will the backend of the rotation limit that? Will injuries? They added Papelbon but lost Madsen (and Lidge) Look at what happened when the Braves had to lean too heavily on their (better) bullpen.
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Edgy MD
Mar 19 2012 09:20 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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The main thing I can say is, sure, but quality pitching tends to be ephemeral. It's everywhere then it's nowhere.
I think there's some talk of Philies shortstop-of-the-future Freddy Galvis getting a Tejada-like intro to the bigs as a phil-in secondbaseman.
He's 21 and looks to be have been getting some Bernazard-like aggressive promotion, and hasn't quite learned to hit yet.
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Vic Sage
Mar 19 2012 09:30 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Ceetar wrote:
Because you still have to score runs and all three of those guys let up 2 runs a game. (often more) And because Vance Worley might not actually be that good and Blanton/Kendrick definitely aren't.
Because they play in a bandbox, all three of their top pitchers are almost a given to regress from career low ERAs, and two of them are on the backend of 'prime pitching age', and they have no pitching depth.
They've also been able to maximize bullpen effectiveness by having those guys go deep into games. Will age limit that? Will the backend of the rotation limit that? Will injuries? They added Papelbon but lost Madsen (and Lidge) Look at what happened when the Braves had to lean too heavily on their (better) bullpen. |
they'll score plenty in their "bandbox"; meanwhile their top 3 have yet to have any difficulty pitching there. The rest is wishful thinking. Yeah, they're getting older, so maybe they'll have injuries, or pitch less deeply into games, or "regress" (despite having brilliant careers to date)... or maybe they'll pitch exactly like they have to date for another year. I'll bet on the former until i see concrete reasons to project the latter.
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batmagadanleadoff
Mar 19 2012 09:33 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Good pitching is more valuable in a smaller stadium. A top pitcher can pitch in any stadium. And the Phillies have lotsa tops. That's why the Phillies are formidable.
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Ceetar
Mar 19 2012 09:43 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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How about the career low HR rate, the career high K/9 rate last year. Think he can duplicate that in his age 35 season?
His velocity is falling, 92 in 2010 and to 91.3 in 2011 and rumors that it's falling further this Spring.
GB/FB rate also a career low, and I think it's easy to see what more FB in that park could mean.
This aren't "concrete" reasons, but it's definitely food for thought.
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Frayed Knot
Mar 19 2012 09:43 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Phils Runs Scored:
2009 - 820
2010 - 772
2011 - 713
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Vic Sage
Mar 19 2012 09:48 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Ceetar wrote:
How about the career low HR rate, the career high K/9 rate last year. Think he can duplicate that in his age 35 season?
His velocity is falling, 92 in 2010 and to 91.3 in 2011 and rumors that it's falling further this Spring.
GB/FB rate also a career low, and I think it's easy to see what more FB in that park could mean.
This aren't "concrete" reasons, but it's definitely food for thought. |
The Philly 3 don't need to duplicate "career lows", just career averages. And i have more reason to think they can duplicate those averages at 35 than you have reason to think they can't, other than the fact that, ultimately, time will in fact catch up with them, and your wish that this is that year.
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Ceetar
Mar 19 2012 09:50 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Vic Sage wrote:
The Philly 3 don't need to duplicate "career lows", just career averages. And i have more reason to think they can duplicate those averages at 35 than you have reason to think they can't, other than the fact that, ultimately, time will in fact catch up with them, and your wish that this is that year. |
It remains to be seen what they 'need' to duplicate to win the division. And I'm merely suggesting age could catch up, not that it will. With an offense almost a lock to score less runs, how many more games do they step back with a regression from career lows to career averages for the top three, especially if Worley-Blanton is likely to be a big step down from Oswalt-Worley last year?
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Vic Sage
Mar 19 2012 09:53 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Frayed Knot wrote:
Phils Runs Scored:
2009 - 820
2010 - 772
2011 - 713 |
I'm not sure i get your point, FK.
Yes, they're scoring less and preventing more. that's called "winning".
In the early part of the last decade, they were scoring more and giving up more. that was called "not winning".
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batmagadanleadoff
Mar 19 2012 09:56 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Phillies Run Differential:
2009 +111
2010 +132
2011 +184
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Frayed Knot
Mar 19 2012 12:21 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Vic Sage wrote:
Phils Runs Scored:
2009 - 820
2010 - 772
2011 - 713 |
I'm not sure i get your point, FK.
Yes, they're scoring less and preventing more. that's called "winning".
In the early part of the last decade, they were scoring more and giving up more. that was called "not winning". |
Wasn't really responding to the ongoing pitching discussion specifically, just throwing in some info to the thread in general which points out that their offense has been slipping for several years now and with it injured and aging they're going to need to rely on that pitching all the more.
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Vic Sage
Mar 19 2012 12:26 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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| Wasn't really responding to the ongoing pitching discussion specifically, just throwing in some info to the thread in general which points out that their offense has been slipping for several years now and with it injured and aging they're going to need to rely on that pitching all the more |
.
Yes, i'd agree they are more pitching reliant. With Utley out indefinitely and Howard out till June, they'd need a pitching staff the likes of Halladay, Lee and Hamels to make up the differ... oh, wait. They HAVE those guys. never mind.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket
Apr 22 2012 08:22 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Cliff Lee to the DL with an oblique strain.
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The Second Spitter
May 08 2012 05:33 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on May 08 2012 05:38 AM
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Cole Hamels the cowardly cunt gets banned for 5 games for being a cowardly cunt, the cowardly cunt, but he won't miss a turn in the rotation because Lee returns. Keep up the good work, Bud.
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Ceetar
May 08 2012 05:38 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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does 5 games even disrupt...anything? they have a day off Thursday. they could start Halladay on normal rest Saturday and have Hamels go Sunday and not miss a beat.
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bmfc1
May 08 2012 06:04 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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The Second Spitter wrote:
Cole Hamels the cowardly cunt gets banned for 5 games for being a cowardly cunt, the cowardly cunt, but he won't miss a turn in the rotation because Lee returns. Keep up the good work, Bud. |
A 5 day suspension of a starting pitcher is worthless. If it's a position player or a reliever, the next opponent that the suspended player's team is playing benefits. Hamels suspension should have begun the next time the MFPs play the Nationals.
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The Second Spitter
May 08 2012 06:18 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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How difficult is it to multiple a starting pitchers suspension by 5?
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Edgy MD
May 08 2012 06:29 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Suspensions also have more teeth when teams aren't permitted to fill the suspended player's roster spot.
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Edgy MD
May 08 2012 07:46 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Phillies phans who supported Josh Thole in Philadephia, honoring him with silence while he was down, and applauding when he sat up, stood, and was helped to the dugout, are in contrast with their fellow tribesmen who travel to Washington for a weekend series, according to Jayson Werth.
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Ceetar
May 08 2012 07:53 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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That Philly-Washington rivalry is really heating up isn't it?
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Gwreck
May 08 2012 02:37 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Edgy DC wrote:
Suspensions also have more teeth when teams aren't permitted to fill the suspended player's roster spot. |
Isn't that how suspensions work now?
Hamels' suspension doesn't have teeth because the Phillies are essentially giving him an extra game off so that he doesn't miss a start.
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Ceetar
May 11 2012 01:47 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Phillies OBP leaderboard, in order: Juan Pierre, Laynce Nix, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Joe Blanton.
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Edgy MD
May 11 2012 01:52 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Ka-pow.
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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
May 11 2012 01:59 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Without seeking them out, I've run across 2-3 sets of rumors over the last 24 hours regarding the Phils potentially being in "sell mode."
Short of a playoff run, leaving a trail of broken franchises-- staring at "Is this it?" headlines in their local newspapers, wondering about their swings/pitching mechanics/the trustworthiness of their relievers-- in our wake is something to which this team can aspire, can't it?
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Ceetar
May 11 2012 02:09 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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that was prompted by a Ruben Amaro Jr quote which I think was basically "if we're playing like this we'd be sellers"
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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
May 11 2012 02:15 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Also, there's scuttlebutt about team-specific inquiries (probably, if true, spurred by that quote) regarding Hamels and Victorino.
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Edgy MD
May 11 2012 02:28 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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One wonders if they have a chance of signing those guys after all they've invested in Howard, Utley, Rollins, Lee, and Halladay. Pence too, for that matter.
Oh, one mustn't think of such things!
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Ceetar
May 11 2012 02:32 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Edgy DC wrote:
One wonders if they have a chance of signing those guys after all they've invested in Howard, Utley, Rollins, Lee, and Halladay. Pence too, for that matter.
Oh, one mustn't think of such things! |
their payroll has skyrocked and their income, if not stagnating, has come close since they already sell out every game.
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Benjamin Grimm
May 11 2012 02:46 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Just for the sake of argument, what meat, if any, would we want to pick off their corpse?
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Ceetar
May 11 2012 02:55 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Benjamin Grimm wrote:
Just for the sake of argument, what meat, if any, would we want to pick off their corpse? |
Whatever we want, we can feed the fish in the aquarium in Miami with it.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket
May 11 2012 03:02 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Benjamin Grimm wrote:
Just for the sake of argument, what meat, if any, would we want to pick off their corpse? |
For real? I'd take Halladay if they're selling, though the Mets would probably be shopping for Blanton.
Polanco would be a nice guy to have. Pence?
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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
May 11 2012 04:16 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Nothing. It's irrevocably tainted. (And, as far as we're concerned, either prohibitively expensive or redundant, position-wise.)
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G-Fafif
May 11 2012 04:59 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote:
Without seeking them out, I've run across 2-3 sets of rumors over the last 24 hours regarding the Phils potentially being in "sell mode." |
A few days ago, I ran across evidence that the Phils are in "suck mode".
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Ceetar
May 11 2012 05:42 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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G-Fafif wrote:
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote:
Without seeking them out, I've run across 2-3 sets of rumors over the last 24 hours regarding the Phils potentially being in "sell mode." |
A few days ago, I ran across evidence that the Phils are in "suck mode". |
I think that was the ladies from the KTE Marlins thread..
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Chad Ochoseis
May 12 2012 06:05 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Benjamin Grimm wrote:
Just for the sake of argument, what meat, if any, would we want to pick off their corpse? |
Ruiz would be nice if the Mets were contending mid-year. He'd be a great platoon-mate for Thole, and nothing would say "cockpunch" to a Phillies fan like Chooch in a Met uniform. His current salary is $3.7M, and he has a 2013 $5M club option.
I was in Lakewood, NJ last night watching the Phillie-affiliated Class A Blue Claws lose 6-1 to the Marlin-affiliated Greensboro Grasshoppers. Five errors by the appropriately-named Claws, not counting a botched infield popup that was scored a hit. I have seen the phuture, and it ain't pretty.
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Edgy MD
May 20 2012 02:29 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Phillies trying to dig their way out of last with a shovel-full of paranoia.
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Ceetar
May 20 2012 03:37 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Edgy DC wrote:
Phillies trying to dig their way out of last with a shovel-full of paranoia. |
lol. I can just imagine the next course of action is to have him wear a jersey with no name on the back and sneak him from minor league field to minor league field to get his work in.
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Ceetar
May 20 2012 05:25 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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another one on Howard and how the cortisone shot he got in September last year may have ultimately caused the final rupture.
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Frayed Knot
Jun 13 2012 07:18 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Phils now losers of nine of their last ten, have fallen to five games below .500, and currently sit 9-1/2 games out of 1st in the East (losing 7.0 off the pace to Washington just over the last 10 days).
On the bright side for them, Chase Utley played in a Class A rehab game last night.
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Swan Swan H
Jun 13 2012 08:21 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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another one on Howard and how the cortisone shot he got in September last year may have ultimately caused the final rupture.
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From the article:
Within seconds, the syringe's milky mixture of cortisone and painkiller rushed warmly into the tiny, inflamed bursa sac at the base of the slugger's Achilles tendon.
"Mr. Howard," the nurse whispered, "your sac looks inflamed. Is there anything I can do to make it feel better?"
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Edgy MD
Jun 13 2012 10:09 PM
Cole Mining
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Phillie phans of my knowing could. not. be. more pessimistic about the likelihood they can make something of this season, and are already envisioning a dismantling of their championship-powered squad. That's largely the over-stated hopelessness of folks whose team is on a losing streak, but there's one big plum in their pudding, and that's Cole Hamels.
Given that...
... he's an AS caliber pitcher,
... his team is playing their way out of contention,
... he's a free-agent at the end of the year,
... the team is already over-burdened with heavy contracts,
... he's something of a five-tool tool,
I'd call it about even money that he finishes the year as a Yankee.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 14 2012 05:06 AM
Re: Cole Mining
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He's definitely MFY material but the word is he's all but tried on a Dodgers jersey.
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metirish
Jun 14 2012 05:38 AM
Re: Cole Mining
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Would you flip Zack Wheeler for him?
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TransMonk
Jun 14 2012 05:42 AM
Re: Cole Mining
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metirish wrote:
Would you flip Zack Wheeler for him? |
I wouldn't.
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Nymr83
Jun 14 2012 06:14 AM
Re: Cole Mining
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TransMonk wrote:
metirish wrote:
Would you flip Zack Wheeler for him? |
I wouldn't. |
Not unless Hamels signs a nice 5 year extension right away. Wheeler looks great but until a guy shows it in the majors you just don't know what he'll be, so I'd deal him for 5 years of Hamels, but I wouldn't even consider it for a 3 month rental.
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Gwreck
Jun 14 2012 06:16 AM
Re: Cole Mining
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John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote:
He's definitely MFY material but the word is he's all but tried on a Dodgers jersey. |
The MFYs of the National League, so that makes perfect sense.
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Benjamin Grimm
Jun 14 2012 06:20 AM
Re: Cole Mining
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metirish wrote:
Would you flip Zack Wheeler for him? |
No. If he's a real prospect, I wouldn't trade him for a rental. And I think the Mets need more than Hamels to win a championship, although he'd certainly be a big help.
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Edgy MD
Jun 14 2012 06:38 AM
Re: Cole Mining
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I wouldn't flip a Zach Wheeler baseball card for him.
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Frayed Knot
Jun 14 2012 06:56 AM
Re: Cole Mining
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John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote:
He's definitely MFY material but the word is he's all but tried on a Dodgers jersey. |
Until the winter, of course, he has no say in the matter (unless he finagled a no-trade deal along the way but that would be unusual for a pre-FA guy).
But in the long run, yeah, it's tough to see the Sillies signing the west-coast wannabe when they're already on the hook for so many expensive (and all older) parts.
On the overall question, I doubt the Phils throw in the towel before they see what they look like when (if?) Utley, Howard & Halladay come back.
If nothing else they've got approx six weeks to decide where they at.
And on the Wheeler angle - Hell No! Not for a rental and not when the Mets are in a position where they're more likely to be dealing established players for prospects than the other way around.
Maybe circumstances change in the near future but not now.
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Edgy MD
Jun 15 2012 06:41 AM
Re: Cole Mining
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I'm merging this into the "Division Foes: Philly" thread.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 28 2012 11:08 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Chad Qualls DFA'ed. Been struggling recently ...
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Frayed Knot
Jun 30 2012 04:55 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Thome reportedly to be dealt to the Orioles.
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themetfairy
Jun 30 2012 04:56 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Frayed Knot wrote:
Thome reportedly to be dealt to the Orioles. |
As a result, Jason Pridie left the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs game to hop a plane to Florida to join the Phillies.
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Edgy MD
Jul 02 2012 12:17 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote:
Chad Qualls DFA'ed. Been struggling recently ... |
Chad Qualls, welcome to the Yankees. PtBNL or cash.
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TransMonk
Jul 02 2012 12:36 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Guess who is 3 losses worse than the Kansas City Royals going into today's games?
Yikes!
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G-Fafif
Aug 07 2012 12:04 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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You can no longer call the Phillies a bunch of sellouts at home.
The Phillies' crowd halted the club's consecutive sellout streak, which is the longest ever in the NL and third-longest in MLB history according to the club. The streak started on July 7, 2009.
"You kind of know it's going to happen," Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins said. "You would hope that it wouldn't. You would hope that one bad season wouldn't break it up. But that's the way it goes.
"People aren't going to spend money and come to the game if they don't feel they're getting their money's worth. And this year we've been a little short." |
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Frayed Knot
Aug 07 2012 02:23 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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I'd have figured that there would have been enough seats pre-sold to get them through this season with that streak intact.
It always the season after the season where sales break down, just like the season after the unexpected title or late run is where you see the big ticket increase.
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bmfc1
Aug 07 2012 06:38 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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On tonight's broadcast, Josh said that "the Phillies phony baloney sell-out streak is over."
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Ashie62
Aug 07 2012 07:17 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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Philly is an Eagles town and camp has started.
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G-Fafif
Sep 14 2012 06:29 AM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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All hail the Astros, making themselves useful by coming back on the Wild Card-dreaming Phillies last night! Trailing 4-3, Houston put up a three-spot in the eighth, Jed Lowrie delivering the key blow, a two-run double off Jake Diekman. Brandon Barnes followed with an RBI single.
With the Cardinals' win, the Phillies fall four behind the second WC spot, trailing four teams altogether. Which is about all a Mets fan has left in the National League.
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G-Fafif
Oct 03 2012 02:10 PM
Re: Division Foes 2012: The Phillies
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81-81 Phillies lose last game, finish with first non-winning record in 10 years.
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