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You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Mar 09 2012 09:03 AM

Proceeding alphabetically from yesterday's entry, consider the prospects of Mike Pelfrey.

Often, it's said that Spring Training starts don't matter much but if I recall it, Pelfrey was shitty last spring training too but got the opening day start anyway. He went on to have a year even worse than his dreadful 2009, 78 ERA+, his whiff rate went down, the whole league hit him pretty well.

He's tended to be better in even-numbered years if that's any consolation.

What do you expect from Pelfrey this year?

TransMonk
Mar 09 2012 09:13 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

He is what he is...I'm past hoping he'll get much better.

200 IP, 10-12, 4.34 ERA, 110 K, 70 BB

Ashie62
Mar 09 2012 09:18 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

210 IP 9-13 4.88 1.41 Comp

Edgy MD
Mar 09 2012 09:20 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

You've (TM, that is) dialed down his already limp K/BB ratio just a little bit from last year. To me that's past the tipping point of effectiveness. I'd be at least a little impressed if he keeps his ERA and W/L record that modestly respectable with those K/BB numbers.

But I hear ya.

Ceetar
Mar 09 2012 09:23 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

He had a pretty awful 2010 Spring Training as well, and then didn't really allow more than a run or two in April. Means nothing.

anyway, I'm hopeful for better results from Pelf this year. I think he's working hard to have better command of his sinker, which will help, even if not much. His xFIP has barely changed year to year, so I'm not expecting any marked improvement from him, just some slight adjustments and better luck that lead to a better ERA.


I'll guess close to his 162 game average over the last four years:

15-8, 4.4 ERA, 201 IP, 114 K and 69 BB.

MFS62
Mar 09 2012 09:29 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

Pelfrey has been remarkably consistent the past 4 seasons. 4.40 Career ERA with 100 decisions now.... Career 1.46 WHIP...

He's always hittable. Always strikes out 5 per 9, always walks 3 per 9.

The only thing that has varied his counting stats results has been his HR%. And with the fences being moved in, I'm not getting a warm fuzzy feeling that this will be a good year, even though he has a good/bad/good/bad pattern awaiting a good year.

And I don't think he has any confidence that his stuff is good enough to consistently get hitters out. So he hesitates, nervously licks his fingers, and aims for the corners.

"Lick lick, nibble nibble" shouldn't be a pitching approach.

Its better suited for the title of an adult movie.


As for prediction, I expect more of the same this year.

12-13 4.53 ERA 194 IP 123K 84BB

Later

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Mar 09 2012 09:31 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

He's due for a little BABIP variance, but tempered somewhat by the moved-in fences.

I'll go 3.77 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 209 IP, 121 K/67 BB, 17 HR allowed... and... um... 12-14 record.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Mar 09 2012 09:33 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

Part of me wants to still believe he can make something of his strength and fastball; the more sensible part of me figures he's about 3 innings from turning into this year's Oliver Perez, one of those guys who the fans are never going to forgive or support, fair or not.

With that in mind I'm afraid the mediocrity continues and he's the one traded or relegated to bullpen work when Harvey arrives in July.

He'll get 20 starts/120 IP and go 6-11, 4.60 in them, then get 13 saves as the closer of the Houston Astros.

Ceetar
Mar 09 2012 09:41 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

One thing to note is that it's thought that HR rate isn't closely tied to a pitcher's skill. Pelfrey, being a guy that usually works down in the zone, has usually had better numbers than the league average FB/HR rate he had last year. He also posted his lowest ever GB% last year. He was probably barely above replacement level last year and imminently replaceable if you can find a replacement level guy (not always that easy) but if he can have a better handle on that sinker his ERA should also sink to more of a very serviceable innings eater keep them in the game type guy.

It's worth noting that they won only 11 of his starts last year. So while he's not going to suddenly become the ace he was drafted to be, he's also a spot to look for big team improvement with just slight improvement from him helping the team stay closer, and a better bullpen keeping it from getting away.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Mar 09 2012 10:00 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

Ceetar wrote:
One thing to note is that it's thought that HR rate isn't closely tied to a pitcher's skill. Pelfrey, being a guy that usually works down in the zone, has usually had better numbers than the league average FB/HR rate he had last year. He also posted his lowest ever GB% last year. He was probably barely above replacement level last year and imminently replaceable if you can find a replacement level guy (not always that easy) but if he can have a better handle on that sinker his ERA should also sink to more of a very serviceable innings eater keep them in the game type guy.


HR rate is one of the aspects of pitcher performance that IS tied directly to a pitcher's skill-- the more hard-hit fly balls he tends to surrender, the more he lets up home runs.

That Pelf, an ostensible "sinkerball" pitcher who works "down in the zone," generally achieves slightly-better-than-average GB rates while inducing far fewer-than-average swing-and-misses, and gives up an above-average FB rate in 2 of his 5 years as a starter and a league-average HR/FB rate... well, that's a pretty significant indictment of his skill level, isn't it?

Edgy MD
Mar 09 2012 10:03 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote:
HR rate is one of the aspects of pitcher performance that IS tied directly to a pitcher's skill

Yeah, I was unable to bend my mind around that one also.

Ceetar
Mar 09 2012 10:09 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote:
Ceetar wrote:
One thing to note is that it's thought that HR rate isn't closely tied to a pitcher's skill. Pelfrey, being a guy that usually works down in the zone, has usually had better numbers than the league average FB/HR rate he had last year. He also posted his lowest ever GB% last year. He was probably barely above replacement level last year and imminently replaceable if you can find a replacement level guy (not always that easy) but if he can have a better handle on that sinker his ERA should also sink to more of a very serviceable innings eater keep them in the game type guy.


HR rate is one of the few things that IS tied directly to a pitcher's skill-- the more hard-hit fly balls he tends to surrender, the more he lets up home runs.

That Pelf, an ostensible "sinkerball" pitcher who works "down in the zone," generally achieves slightly-better-than-average GB rates while inducing far fewer-than-average swing-and-misses, and gives up an above-average FB rate in 2 of his 5 years as a starter and a league-average HR/FB rate... well, that's a pretty significant indictment of his skill level, isn't it?


it's not. or at least, not closely correlated. This isn't something I'm making up, it's based on statistical analysis I've read, multiple places. You can look at many Hall of Fame pitchers and see big fluctuations. Halladay 11.3% in 2010. Oh, but that's CBP right? well, was only 5.1% last year. 6.5% in 2002 to 14.3 in 2003. Granted the data only goes back to 2002. Seaver gave up 15 HR in '68, 24 in '69. roughly the same IP and actually 22 less total hits.

The biggest swing in Pelfrey's results are the Home Runs, and one of his worst rates was last year. Usually he's a tick or two better than league average with the FB/HR rate. I'm not saying this is just luck though, it's still in some way tied to his ability. Last year he had a lower GB%, which obviously was because of his own admittance on not having his Sinker. He's working on it, and he already claims he's having a better feel for it so far this spring. There's evidence that he can make this adjustment, and if he does the GB% rises and his HRs go down making his numbers somewhat better.

metirish
Mar 09 2012 10:13 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

TransMonk wrote:
He is what he is...I'm past hoping he'll get much better.

200 IP, 10-12, 4.34 ERA, 110 K, 70 BB




hard to argue with this .......that is Pelfrey right there, closing for the Astros is gold......imagine?

Fman99
Mar 09 2012 10:27 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

Dies in a grease fire.

Benjamin Grimm
Mar 09 2012 10:35 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

3-8, 4.80 ERA.

If he pitches reasonably well, I think he'll be traded. And if he doesn't, he'll be bumped by Matt Harvey or someone else. My prediction is that he's out of the Mets rotation before August 1.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Mar 09 2012 01:36 PM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

Ceetar wrote:
it's not. or at least, not closely correlated. This isn't something I'm making up, it's based on statistical analysis I've read, multiple places. You can look at many Hall of Fame pitchers and see big fluctuations. Halladay 11.3% in 2010. Oh, but that's CBP right? well, was only 5.1% last year. 6.5% in 2002 to 14.3 in 2003. Granted the data only goes back to 2002. Seaver gave up 15 HR in '68, 24 in '69. roughly the same IP and actually 22 less total hits.


Sorry, I think we were talking past each other; HR/FB shows more variance than you'd like, yes, but I meant the overall likelihood of giving up home runs, or HR/9. This one sees some static-- thanks to the relative vagaries of HR/FB rate-- but tends to see somewhat less variance overall, and paint a fuller picture when you look at, say, 3-4 years of data. (Funny, though, that you bring up Halladay-- he's been one of the league's more consistent guys in terms of HR/FB-- 7 of his 10 measured seasons fall between 9.4% and 12.5%.)

The biggest swing in Pelfrey's results are the Home Runs, and one of his worst rates was last year. Usually he's a tick or two better than league average with the FB/HR rate. I'm not saying this is just luck though, it's still in some way tied to his ability. Last year he had a lower GB%, which obviously was because of his own admittance on not having his Sinker. He's working on it, and he already claims he's having a better feel for it so far this spring. There's evidence that he can make this adjustment, and if he does the GB% rises and his HRs go down making his numbers somewhat better.


Again, though... for a guy who throws nothing but the two pitches he generally throws... even when he's "on," he's not all that worm-kill-y (compare to guys like Lowe and Webb during their peaks, e.g.).

Edgy MD
Mar 09 2012 01:51 PM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

I just want Pelfrey to come up and in when he gets two strikes instead of bouncing trashy breaking balls away all the time. Nobody's chasing. Maybe they might if they know what it's like to feel a big badass like him in their wheelhouse.

TransMonk
Mar 09 2012 01:55 PM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

Get mad, Mike. Get mad!

Ceetar
Mar 09 2012 02:03 PM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote:

Again, though... for a guy who throws nothing but the two pitches he generally throws... even when he's "on," he's not all that worm-kill-y (compare to guys like Lowe and Webb during their peaks, e.g.).


Well no, but I'm talking about him maybe pitching to a 4 ERA and keeping them in games. Not becoming Brandon Webb and dominating for a MVP. Get back to getting a few more ground balls, keep the ball in the park, and expecting the Mets to win more of your games than lose them doesn't seem farfetched. He was at career lows, so it should be doable. More GB means less FB means less HR which should hopefully lead to less runs (Unless the defense is just completely porous)

He really did have a stretch for the first half of 2010 where he was having a nice run of it. It'd be a revelation at this point just to see a couple of starts in a row like that.

Maybe Ricky Bones can help. he seems smart.

Frayed Knot
Mar 09 2012 02:29 PM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

MFS62 wrote:
Pelfrey has been remarkably consistent the past 4 seasons.


Kind of not though:
Good seasons in 2008 [3.72 ERA; 1.36 WHiP] and in 2010 [3.66; 1.38] with a winning record both times
not good years in 2009 [5.03; 1.51] or in 2011 [4.74; 1.47] while going a combined 17-25

You are right about the K/9 & BB/9 rates staying right about the same, while others point out the biggest difference being his HR/9 yo-yo-ing back and forth [0.5, 0.9, 0.5, 1.0] marking his good seasons from bad.

smg58
Mar 10 2012 06:42 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

He could do a better job of getting his pitches down this year, but the possibility also exists that the new fences will hurt him more than they help any of our hitters. The error bars are large, but I'll say 10-12 with a 4.50 ERA.

Edgy MD
Mar 10 2012 07:03 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

Can anybody find us one of those awesome hit graph thingies, so we can see if he's had an inordinate amount of warning track flies at Citifield that are now potential homers?

batmagadanleadoff
Mar 30 2012 02:16 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

Pelfrey is an enigma. Wrapped inside of a riddle. Wrapped inside of a jellied Madrilene.

NY Mets front office considered releasing Michael Pelfrey before Opening Day



PORT ST. LUCIE — In a recent meeting that included the Mets’ executives and coaches, members of the front office suggested releasing Mike Pelfrey before Opening Day, according to two people with direct knowledge of the situation. None of the uniformed staff was in favor of the idea, and it was downplayed.

Pelfrey further solidified his place in the rotation Thursday night, when he allowed one run in 6.1 innings Thursday night against Houston. His strongest outing of the Grapefruit League season left his ERA at 8.59.

“I saw all the things today that I have heard about,” Terry Collins said. “I saw a power sinker (with) that great movement, beating it in the dirt. He threw his curveball for strikes. Josh (Thole)said his split was outstanding tonight.”

Said Pelfrey: “The command was by far the best it has been all spring training. I did a good job of keeping the ball down.”

One team official characterized the recent discussion about cutting Pelfrey as “just what you do in meetings, throwing (stuff) against the wall, and we throw a lot of (stuff) against the wall,” and went on to predict that Pelfrey would have a strong year for the Mets.

But still: The very consideration of releasing Pelfrey and replacing him in the starting rotation with Chris Schwinden strongly suggests that club brass is not enamored of the seventh-year Met, who might very well be in his final season with the team — if he remains in New York for that long.

The perception of Pelfrey inside the clubhouse is much more positive. Beyond the standard platitudes of support, most Mets players still believe in Pelfrey, and are rooting for a teammate they like and respect. Pitching coach Dan Warthen raved about the revised mechanics that Pelfrey displayed in a recent appearance, which helped his velocity increase to 95 mph.

After that game, one Met made a case for retaining Pelfrey that was representative of how many players feel, saying, “If we got rid of him, he would (stick it to us).”

Teammates also offered genuinely favorable reviews after watching video of Pelfrey’s new mechanics, and felt that he had made an adjustment that could lead to a successful year.

As for the suggestion of releasing Pelfrey, part of the idea was the pitcher’s non-guaranteed contract. If the Mets cut him before Opening Day, they will owe him roughly $1 million of the $5.68 million he will be paid this season.

In the recent meeting, some in the front office wondered if that money would be better spent bolstering the Mets’ 2012 roster depth, with Schwinden in the rotation in place of Pelfrey. Schwinden remains in major-league camp, surviving another round of roster cuts on Thursday.

Pelfrey is an enigma. Talented enough to inspire continued belief among many Mets that he can be a solid starter, the 28-year-old has yet to experience sustained success, save for extended streaks of dominance in 2008 and 2010. A former first-round draft pick, he is 50-54 in his career.

Some of his longtime rivals, observing from a distance, believe that Pelfrey would benefit from pitching in a new city, free of the expectations of a fan base that often expresses its displeasure with him.
“Pelfrey has good stuff,” said an NL East player who has faced Pelfrey for years. “But you wonder if he just needs to get out of New York and start over.”


Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseb ... z1qaOJsaOV

TheOldMole
Mar 30 2012 06:57 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

Still rooting for Pelf to pull it all together.

metirish
Mar 30 2012 06:59 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

Some of his longtime rivals, observing from a distance, believe that Pelfrey would benefit from pitching in a new city, free of the expectations of a fan base that often expresses its displeasure with him.
“Pelfrey has good stuff,” said an NL East player who has faced Pelfrey for years. “But you wonder if he just needs to get out of New York and start over.”


bullshit Mr. NL East player who has faced Pelfrey

I think our expectations for Pelfrey are quite modest in fact

Edgy MD
Mar 30 2012 07:32 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

I think they interchange "expectations" and "demands" a little recklessly but I think that's a really good article.

Frayed Knot
Mar 30 2012 07:46 AM
Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey

The 'change of scenery' argument seems to be becoming a catch-all one pulls out when stuck for other explanations.
It's not even an argument that's exclusive to New York although I think when a big city is involved it does ramp up the odds that the C-of-S card will be played.