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You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey
John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 09 2012 09:03 AM |
Proceeding alphabetically from yesterday's entry, consider the prospects of Mike Pelfrey.
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TransMonk Mar 09 2012 09:13 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
He is what he is...I'm past hoping he'll get much better.
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Ashie62 Mar 09 2012 09:18 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
210 IP 9-13 4.88 1.41 Comp
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Edgy MD Mar 09 2012 09:20 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
You've (TM, that is) dialed down his already limp K/BB ratio just a little bit from last year. To me that's past the tipping point of effectiveness. I'd be at least a little impressed if he keeps his ERA and W/L record that modestly respectable with those K/BB numbers.
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Ceetar Mar 09 2012 09:23 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
He had a pretty awful 2010 Spring Training as well, and then didn't really allow more than a run or two in April. Means nothing.
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MFS62 Mar 09 2012 09:29 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
Pelfrey has been remarkably consistent the past 4 seasons. 4.40 Career ERA with 100 decisions now.... Career 1.46 WHIP...
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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 09 2012 09:31 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
He's due for a little BABIP variance, but tempered somewhat by the moved-in fences.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 09 2012 09:33 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
Part of me wants to still believe he can make something of his strength and fastball; the more sensible part of me figures he's about 3 innings from turning into this year's Oliver Perez, one of those guys who the fans are never going to forgive or support, fair or not.
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Ceetar Mar 09 2012 09:41 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
One thing to note is that it's thought that HR rate isn't closely tied to a pitcher's skill. Pelfrey, being a guy that usually works down in the zone, has usually had better numbers than the league average FB/HR rate he had last year. He also posted his lowest ever GB% last year. He was probably barely above replacement level last year and imminently replaceable if you can find a replacement level guy (not always that easy) but if he can have a better handle on that sinker his ERA should also sink to more of a very serviceable innings eater keep them in the game type guy.
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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 09 2012 10:00 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
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HR rate is one of the aspects of pitcher performance that IS tied directly to a pitcher's skill-- the more hard-hit fly balls he tends to surrender, the more he lets up home runs. That Pelf, an ostensible "sinkerball" pitcher who works "down in the zone," generally achieves slightly-better-than-average GB rates while inducing far fewer-than-average swing-and-misses, and gives up an above-average FB rate in 2 of his 5 years as a starter and a league-average HR/FB rate... well, that's a pretty significant indictment of his skill level, isn't it?
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Edgy MD Mar 09 2012 10:03 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
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Yeah, I was unable to bend my mind around that one also.
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Ceetar Mar 09 2012 10:09 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
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it's not. or at least, not closely correlated. This isn't something I'm making up, it's based on statistical analysis I've read, multiple places. You can look at many Hall of Fame pitchers and see big fluctuations. Halladay 11.3% in 2010. Oh, but that's CBP right? well, was only 5.1% last year. 6.5% in 2002 to 14.3 in 2003. Granted the data only goes back to 2002. Seaver gave up 15 HR in '68, 24 in '69. roughly the same IP and actually 22 less total hits. The biggest swing in Pelfrey's results are the Home Runs, and one of his worst rates was last year. Usually he's a tick or two better than league average with the FB/HR rate. I'm not saying this is just luck though, it's still in some way tied to his ability. Last year he had a lower GB%, which obviously was because of his own admittance on not having his Sinker. He's working on it, and he already claims he's having a better feel for it so far this spring. There's evidence that he can make this adjustment, and if he does the GB% rises and his HRs go down making his numbers somewhat better.
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metirish Mar 09 2012 10:13 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
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hard to argue with this .......that is Pelfrey right there, closing for the Astros is gold......imagine?
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Fman99 Mar 09 2012 10:27 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
Dies in a grease fire.
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Benjamin Grimm Mar 09 2012 10:35 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
3-8, 4.80 ERA.
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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 09 2012 01:36 PM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
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Sorry, I think we were talking past each other; HR/FB shows more variance than you'd like, yes, but I meant the overall likelihood of giving up home runs, or HR/9. This one sees some static-- thanks to the relative vagaries of HR/FB rate-- but tends to see somewhat less variance overall, and paint a fuller picture when you look at, say, 3-4 years of data. (Funny, though, that you bring up Halladay-- he's been one of the league's more consistent guys in terms of HR/FB-- 7 of his 10 measured seasons fall between 9.4% and 12.5%.)
Again, though... for a guy who throws nothing but the two pitches he generally throws... even when he's "on," he's not all that worm-kill-y (compare to guys like Lowe and Webb during their peaks, e.g.).
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Edgy MD Mar 09 2012 01:51 PM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
I just want Pelfrey to come up and in when he gets two strikes instead of bouncing trashy breaking balls away all the time. Nobody's chasing. Maybe they might if they know what it's like to feel a big badass like him in their wheelhouse.
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TransMonk Mar 09 2012 01:55 PM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
Get mad, Mike. Get mad!
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Ceetar Mar 09 2012 02:03 PM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
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Well no, but I'm talking about him maybe pitching to a 4 ERA and keeping them in games. Not becoming Brandon Webb and dominating for a MVP. Get back to getting a few more ground balls, keep the ball in the park, and expecting the Mets to win more of your games than lose them doesn't seem farfetched. He was at career lows, so it should be doable. More GB means less FB means less HR which should hopefully lead to less runs (Unless the defense is just completely porous) He really did have a stretch for the first half of 2010 where he was having a nice run of it. It'd be a revelation at this point just to see a couple of starts in a row like that. Maybe Ricky Bones can help. he seems smart.
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Frayed Knot Mar 09 2012 02:29 PM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
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Kind of not though: Good seasons in 2008 [3.72 ERA; 1.36 WHiP] and in 2010 [3.66; 1.38] with a winning record both times not good years in 2009 [5.03; 1.51] or in 2011 [4.74; 1.47] while going a combined 17-25 You are right about the K/9 & BB/9 rates staying right about the same, while others point out the biggest difference being his HR/9 yo-yo-ing back and forth [0.5, 0.9, 0.5, 1.0] marking his good seasons from bad.
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smg58 Mar 10 2012 06:42 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
He could do a better job of getting his pitches down this year, but the possibility also exists that the new fences will hurt him more than they help any of our hitters. The error bars are large, but I'll say 10-12 with a 4.50 ERA.
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Edgy MD Mar 10 2012 07:03 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
Can anybody find us one of those awesome hit graph thingies, so we can see if he's had an inordinate amount of warning track flies at Citifield that are now potential homers?
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batmagadanleadoff Mar 30 2012 02:16 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
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Pelfrey is an enigma. Wrapped inside of a riddle. Wrapped inside of a jellied Madrilene.
Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseb ... z1qaOJsaOV
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TheOldMole Mar 30 2012 06:57 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
Still rooting for Pelf to pull it all together.
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metirish Mar 30 2012 06:59 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
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bullshit Mr. NL East player who has faced Pelfrey I think our expectations for Pelfrey are quite modest in fact
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Edgy MD Mar 30 2012 07:32 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
I think they interchange "expectations" and "demands" a little recklessly but I think that's a really good article.
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Frayed Knot Mar 30 2012 07:46 AM Re: You Make the Call: Mike Pelfrey |
The 'change of scenery' argument seems to be becoming a catch-all one pulls out when stuck for other explanations.
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