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You Make the Call: Jason Bay

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 20 2012 07:38 AM

I don't think his problem was the fences.

metirish Mar 20 2012 07:42 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

.256 - 16 HR - 69 RBI SO Over 100 and an attainable option to work on 2014 option guaranteed with 600 PAs in 2013 or 500 PAs in both 2012, 2013 full no-trade clause

Ceetar Mar 20 2012 07:44 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

I haven't really believed in the fences argument much either, but I do hope he'll just pull the ball more normally this year. I dunno..at least he finished strong right? I'm been..I guess hoping more than predicting, that he can have a 33% bounce back from his 2011 career low, towards his career averages. That'd give him about a .750 OPS. .260/.350/.400, 21 HR, 101 RBI (batting 5th or 6th), 10 SB and 10 SF.

Edgy MD Mar 20 2012 07:50 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

There's two fences arguments. The first was the notion that the ballpark is holding in his best efforts. The second was that the ballpark dimensions so threatened to hold in his best efforts that he changed his mental and physical approach from what was working for him and never found another. I know I don't believe in the first. The second is annoying, but is harder to dismiss, as a few players seemed to give voice to it after the team announced they were bringing the walls. in. .271-22-88.

smg58 Mar 20 2012 07:55 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

I hope he proves me wrong, but I'm not expecting any improvement.

Benjamin Grimm Mar 20 2012 08:16 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Maybe a little improvement, but not nearly enough to come close to justifying his salary. If he plays more or less every day, I'm figuring about 15 homers, .250 batting average and 70-something RBI. He'll have a few hot streaks, but for the most part, the disappointment will continue. There's virtually no way that the Mets will allow that 2014 option to vest. The only scenario I can see where that would happen is if Bay is playing like a superstar in 2013 and the Mets are strong contenders. But that seems to be very much a longshot. I'd like to think that it's possible that Bay will lose his starting job before the year is out if he continues to muddle along as he has been, but I'm not sure how likely that is to happen. It seems that the Mets rarely (if ever) cut bait while there's more than a year remaining on a contract.

Edgy MD Mar 20 2012 08:22 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

I'm not going to get too vest-conscious at this point. Certainly no fun rooting for a guy to stay off the field. They dodged the Rodriguez option and it wasn't worth the drama around it.

Vic Sage Mar 20 2012 08:40 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

it ain't gonna get much better. With a decent glove, good base-running instincts, and a positive clubhouse presence, nonetheless Bay's .250/15hr/70rbi/10sb line (while a slight improvement over last year) will remain an anchor dragging down the Met offense. We need more production from a LFer than that. When Mets fall out of contention early and Sandy wants to see more Captain Kirk, hopefully Bay gets relegated to the bench to prevent the option from vesting and we can divest ourselves of this bad deal with minimum machinations.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 20 2012 08:44 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

260/340/390 15 dings, 60 ribs, loses job

batmagadanleadoff Mar 20 2012 08:49 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Edgy DC wrote: Certainly no fun rooting for a guy to stay off the field. I dunno. Playing time's a zero sum game. Every PA Jason Bay takes is a PA someone else isn't taking. Root for Bay and you're rooting against every other LF'er. If Bay's not the best LF'er on the team, he should sit.

Edgy MD Mar 20 2012 08:56 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Root for Bay and I'm rooting for homeruns and stolen bases, doubles to the power alley and great jolly catches at the fence. If I want somebody else there, I'll root for him directly, not for Bay's demise but for the ascendancy of another. But 40 homers from Bay or 40 from Cesar Puello will thrill me either way.

Vic Sage Mar 20 2012 09:36 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

the ascendency of another can only come if (1) another gets playing time to produce, and (2) Bay underperforms (yet again), getting either benched or platooned to allow for another's playing time, so i don't get the distinction your making. I mean i GET it, i just think it's a distinction without a difference. If Bay is playing at replacement level yet again, and if there is another possible option with which to replace him, then it's in the Mets long-term interest (and mine, as a fan) for them to try out such other option(s), while minimizing Bay's chance to do further harm to the payroll and roster, thereby making the most rational distribution of limited resources. I don't root for or against Bay per se... he's just another guy whose passing through Queens wearing the orange an blue. I'm rooting for good management, which has been so hard to come by around here (rarer even then a slugging LFer), but can ultimately yield our best chance for a winning team.

Ceetar Mar 20 2012 09:45 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

But rooting for Bay means rooting for a full LF season of productivity, rooting for another means ~half a season of crappy Bay, and then plugging in an unknown. The first wins more games.

Ashie62 Mar 20 2012 10:07 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

.265 18 hr 67 rbi 9 sb 2 trips to dl.

Edgy MD Mar 20 2012 10:20 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

I think you understand me perfectly well. Enough goofiness.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 20 2012 12:29 PM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

450 PAs, 17 HR, 31 XBH, 49 R, 61 RBI, .268/.344/.418

Vic Sage Mar 20 2012 12:37 PM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Edgy DC wrote: I think you understand me perfectly well. Enough goofiness. you constantly overestimate my understanding and underestimate my goofiness.

MFS62 Mar 20 2012 09:49 PM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Bay will like the new home field dimensions. .275 - 23 HR - 78 RBI. Later

Lefty Specialist Mar 21 2012 08:46 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Fences won't help Bay much as he's developed a disturbing tendency to beat the ball into the ground. Traded back to Boston mid-season where he enjoys a career renaissance.

TheOldMole Mar 21 2012 08:52 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

.280, 25 HR, 85 RBI

TheOldMole Mar 27 2012 01:34 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

something good about Jason Bay.

metirish Mar 27 2012 05:45 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

TheOldMole wrote: something good about Jason Bay. Haven't clicked on the link yet but I'm guessing the something good is not him forfeiting his contract?

MFS62 Mar 27 2012 07:20 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Let's put the chances for trading Bay in the proper perspective. Which of the following doesn't belong with the others? A) AIDS B) Herpes C) Gonorrhea D) Jason Bay. The answer is "C". You can get rid of Gonorrhea. Later

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 27 2012 07:29 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Ranier Wolfcastle, ladies and gentlemen. The article details how Bay earned superior scores over Alfonso Soriano in a metric ranking outfielders by poor plays committed (for example, failing to properly field a single in front of him etc). Makes sense to me as an eyewitness; Bay makes up what he may lack in spectacular plays or great range by reliably making the plays he ought to.

Edgy MD Mar 27 2012 07:30 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Maybe the Mets did such good work scouting his defense that they didn't put enough thought into the long-term viability of his bat. I just sometimes wonder if concussions just take the fire out of your punch.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 27 2012 12:43 PM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: The article details how Bay earned superior scores over Alfonso Soriano in a metric ranking outfielders by poor plays committed (for example, failing to properly field a single in front of him etc). "He's better than Soriano" : Defensive evaluation :: "At least you're not dead" : Health evaluation

Edgy MD Mar 27 2012 01:10 PM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Well said, and the Wolfcastle line is one I was really grasping at, but in fairness, the article had Bay as the best leftfielder in beesball, according to that metric.

Benjamin Grimm Apr 02 2012 02:16 PM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Non-news from Mike Puma in the New York Post: PORT ST. LUCIE — Jason Bay won’t lose his starting job this week or likely even this month, but it doesn’t mean the Mets left fielder is untouchable. Though the idea has not yet reached the discussion stage among team executives, a club official yesterday floated the possibility that if Bay is struggling six or seven weeks into the season, the Mets could explore other options, including a platoon in left. Nobody's talking about it, but maybe it will happen. Was anybody thinking that Jason Bay was untouchable?

Edgy MD Apr 02 2012 02:33 PM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

I can't imagine why they wouldn't. Go, Puma.

Fman99 Apr 02 2012 07:48 PM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Batting .197 this spring, with no RBI's. NONE. Jesus H. Tap Dancing Fucking Christ, that's bad.

metirish Apr 03 2012 06:18 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Fman99 wrote: Batting .197 this spring, with no RBI's. NONE. Jesus H. Tap Dancing Fucking Christ, that's bad. Christ is right ,yes it's ST yyybbb but still , none?

TransMonk Apr 03 2012 07:50 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

I'd trade him for a used jock strap or cut him if this continues more than a few weeks into the season. Platooning him is not going to make him any better even though it will help the team. At this point, he's never going to get back to replacement level without a little cahnfidence. The cascade of boos that he will hear during every at bat as a $16MM playoon player is going to ruin any cahnfidence he has left. I try to hold off judging any player's season until Memorial Day, but Jason's spring has been downright awful.

Edgy MD Apr 03 2012 07:53 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Vic Sage wrote: Edgy DC wrote: I think you understand me perfectly well. Enough goofiness. you constantly overestimate my understanding and underestimate my goofiness. Hoping a man prospers is not the same as hoping he continues to garner playing time should he fail to prosper.

Benjamin Grimm Apr 03 2012 07:54 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

I don't imagine that they'll cut him until spring of 2013 at the earliest; they've always had a psychological barrier preventing them from releasing somebody with more than a full year remaining on the contract and I don't expect that to change. But I can see them possibly downgrading him in 2012 if things go as poorly for Bay as most of us expect.

Ceetar Apr 03 2012 08:00 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Even if he does have an even lower career low year, I agree, they won't release him this year. They may find ways to fit Lagaras, or Baxter, or Nieuwenhuis or Den Dekker in RF for some games more and more, but if he continues to degrade he won't make it to Spring of 2013. If he doesn't surpass 2010 levels he'll probably still be here, but have to earn a job in Spring Training.

Edgy MD Apr 03 2012 08:01 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

If a psychological barrier is the issue, I imagine it is lessened due to the fact that the contract is not on this regime's ledger. I don't think it's worth their consideration until it's clear that they have 25 guys better/more useful than him and the pattern suggests it's going to stay that way.

Ceetar Apr 03 2012 08:03 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

I know fans are going to boo and he deserves it, but the actual Bay hatred seems to be somewhat tempered as compared to say Mike Pelfrey who I'd argue probably contributed more value last year.

Fman99 Apr 03 2012 08:14 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Seriously, though, have the Mets ever gotten less on an investment of this size than Bay has delivered thus far? Kevin Appier was a $40 million toilet, he comes to mind, but still, that's less than 2/3 what Bay will make. Same with Ollie at 3/36...

Edgy MD Apr 03 2012 08:20 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

You've got to make COLA calculations, but yeah, it's been a bomb thus far. But you've got to weigh the contracts of guys generally performing poorly also against those of guys generally performing well, but too frequently hurt --- Pedro Martinez and Johan Santana, f'rinstance --- and look at their relative return on investment. It's a depressing exercise, I warn you. It's opening day coming, after all.

metirish Apr 03 2012 08:24 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

And Appier was flipped for Mo, who at least gave us smiles and a few moon shots....that one way up on the Bud sign on the score board was a dinger. Appier for all that is said was excellent down the stretch that year he was here.

Vic Sage Apr 03 2012 10:49 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Edgy DC wrote: Edgy DC wrote: I think you understand me perfectly well. Enough goofiness. you constantly overestimate my understanding and underestimate my goofiness. Hoping a man prospers is not the same as hoping he continues to garner playing time should he fail to prosper. yeah, i don't know why you waited 2 weeks to respond with this gem but whatever, dude. hoping a man prospers is also not the same as expecting him to prosper. I hope he hit like Manny Ramirez; i don't expect him to. Given Bay's age, recent years of unproductivity and a vesting contract option, what i am "ROOTING FOR" is that, when the inevitable occurs and Bay continues to play as he has in NY to date, that instead of just trotting him out to LF every day, he goes either into a platoon or to the bench (or released outright) rather than waiting for him to play up to his contract. Even if the players we run out there instead don't match his mediocre output, they at least have the potential of exceeding it, and every AB he doesn't get inches the Mets towards a future without his bad contract strangling their limited means.

Edgy MD Apr 03 2012 10:56 AM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Vic Sage wrote: hoping a man prospers is also not the same as expecting him to prosper. Which doesn't characterize what I wrote.

Fman99 Apr 03 2012 07:32 PM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Why do you have to fight, why can't you GET ALONG? WHY DO I HAVE TO LISTEN TO THIS, I'M TRYING TO DO MY HOMEWORK HERE!

Ceetar Apr 03 2012 08:33 PM Re: You Make the Call: Jason Bay

Fman99 wrote: Why do you have to fight, why can't you GET ALONG? WHY DO I HAVE TO LISTEN TO THIS, I'M TRYING TO DO MY HOMEWORK HERE! I'm going to slit the cats like cheese then eat the sweet sticky things. And that's my music reference for the year.