Predict the Mets, 2012

Master Index of Archived Threads

Predict the Mets, 2012

bmfc1
Mar 25 2012 11:52 AM

Just the Mets:

1. Where they will finish in the NL East
2. What the final record will be
3. If you predict a wild card spot, say so
4. If you predict a playoff appearance, how far will they go?

Last year's winner was Transmonk.
Please don't be a J.J. Putz and predict "162-0" or "0-162".

bmfc1
Mar 25 2012 11:53 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

1. 5th
2. 77-85
3. No
4. No

themetfairy
Mar 25 2012 11:53 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

1. Third
2. 81-81
3. No
4. N/A

metirish
Mar 25 2012 11:54 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

1. Where they will finish in the NL East - last
2. What the final record will be - 74-88
3. If you predict a wild card spot, say so - none
4. If you predict a playoff appearance, how far will they go?

Ceetar
Mar 25 2012 12:05 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

1. Second
2. 85-77
3. No playoffs.

Chad Ochoseis
Mar 25 2012 12:25 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

5th place

69-93

No playoffs

I'd love to be wrong.

Benjamin Grimm
Mar 25 2012 12:49 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

4th place. 76-86. No playoffs.

Mets Guy in Michigan
Mar 25 2012 12:53 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

1. Where they will finish in the NL East: Third
2. What the final record will be: 87-75
3. If you predict a wild card spot, say so: Alas, no.
4. If you predict a playoff appearance, how far will they go? Sniff.

Gwreck
Mar 25 2012 02:13 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

5th Place
63-99
No Wildcard
No Playoffs

HahnSolo
Mar 25 2012 03:13 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

4th place
75-87
No playoffs, nothing.

G-Fafif
Mar 25 2012 03:30 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

1. 74-88, with alternating dollops of Pollyannish BS when they play well and overwrought doom and gloom when they don't filling the Metscape

2. 5th place, because I can't quite picture anybody in this division crumbling enough to let us have fourth

The revised playoff structure hasn't expanded enough to include the 2012 Mets given the above parameters.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Mar 25 2012 04:55 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

1. 5th
2. 76-86
3. No
4. N/A

batmagadanleadoff
Mar 26 2012 04:11 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Their Golden anniversary won't be as memorable as their Silver one.

Vic Sage
Mar 26 2012 08:53 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

1. 5th - they'd finish 6th if they could
2. 72-90
3. No, the league would have needed to add 10 WCs for it to be a relevant issue for the 2012 Mets
4. oh, puleez

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Mar 26 2012 08:59 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

I can't see them winning with that defense and the thin starting pitching, not to mention the injuries. Could be a really bad year.

That said I'm constitutionally unable to predict doom during spring, so will say if it all clicks, we could go 84-78 and challenge for 3rd.

Benjamin Grimm
Mar 26 2012 09:09 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Losing record in April. Winning records in May and June will stir some fleeting hope. July will be a bit under .500, and August and September will be horrific.

Vic Sage
Mar 26 2012 09:39 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

i agree... except for the parts about May and June.

Mets – Willets Point
Mar 26 2012 10:04 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

1. First
2. 102-60
3. Not needed
4. World Series champions

metsmarathon
Mar 26 2012 10:10 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

82 - 80

third

no playoffs

no playoffs

i believe the NL east to be in a spectacularly transitional mode this year, with no team really stepping up and taking the reins. i expect miami to be a mess, the braves and nats to be competitive, and the phillies to get old. i think the mets will be in the thick of things, to some extent, and will at least keep the season interesting.

or i need my coffee and am hallucinating from a decaffeinated monday morning. whichev's.

TransMonk
Mar 26 2012 04:21 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

78-84
Fourth in the NL East
No playoffs

Ashie62
Mar 26 2012 08:50 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

An NL East Clusterfuck will help the Mets.

I'm going with the Mets having a healthy year and..

82-80

No

and no

El Segundo Escupidor
Mar 26 2012 10:06 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

70-92, the rest is self-explanatory.

Edgy MD
Mar 27 2012 06:56 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

I don't like to get into specifics. It'll be a positive, positive year. Many steps forward. Many enemies vanquished.

Ceetar
Mar 27 2012 07:18 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Edgy DC wrote:
I don't like to get into specifics. It'll be a positive, positive year. Many steps forward. Many enemies vanquished.

Put a number on it!

Edgy MD
Mar 27 2012 07:19 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

97-65.

Vic Sage
Mar 27 2012 07:40 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

well THAT'S a relief. for a minute there i thought you'd predict 100 wins and we'd have to criticize you for being hopelessly optimistic bordering on utterly deranged. thank goodness we don't have to go there. now come inside; it's raining and you'll catch your death. sit by the fire, here's some tea...

Benjamin Grimm
Mar 27 2012 07:41 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

When you're more optimistic than Ceetar, there's cause for alarm.

Edgy MD
Mar 27 2012 07:43 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

I thought it conservative.

Ceetar
Mar 27 2012 07:46 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Benjamin Grimm wrote:
When you're more optimistic than Ceetar, there's cause for alarm.

Santana is Santana of old, just through 30 starts instead of 33.

Jason Bay sticks to his old swing, re-finds his stroke, and hits 30 home runs.

Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch both pitch more good than bad, and Acosta and Ramirez remain very good.

Jon Niese, Ruben Tejada, Lucas Duda, Ike Davis and even Dillon Gee and Josh Thole take small but steady steps forward in their growth.

That team could win 97 games. Would any of those things happen really surprise you? Would you really say "Never in a million years would I have thought Bay would hit 30 home runs again"? Obviously these things don't always all happen, but neither does one make the other one less likely to happen.

Edgy MD
Mar 27 2012 07:54 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

I don't know quite what the scenario is that'll unfold. There are 1,000 ways it could play itself out. Scenarios involving Havens discovering health. Duda becoming an indefensible maniac. Pelfrey finding his out pitch. Parnell becoming deadly. Maybe the guy who really exploits the shorter fences is an unanticipated dude like Murphy. A mid-season trade for some goofball sidearmer that is suddenly un-httable. It happens all the time.

Looked at more closely, there are 10,000 scenarios. Infinite ways, really. I just think there are more positive scenarios out there than people are willing to acknowledge. Understandably so, but I think the dice can and perhaps should land on one of them. So a guy puts a gun to my head, asks for a number, and I say 97. I dunno.

TransMonk
Mar 27 2012 07:58 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Overall, I think the 4th place/under .500 predicitions will be closer to the mark than 97 wins, but obviously, anything's possible. This team has more potential than those of the past few years, so if nothing else they should be exciting and fun.

I do believe the Mets will finish (with a cluster of other teams) within 10 games of the 2nd wildcard, providing what some will call meaningful games in September.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Mar 27 2012 12:48 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

I'm rooting for my child, too. But I'm not banking on her being able to read Ulysses by the end of the summer.

Hope for something vaguely realistic, and you won't be so disappointed that you end up, say, wanting to throw out $5 million dollar assets for having a bad Spring Training, or shitting on a knuckleballer/bearded good/decent guy just because.

metirish
Mar 27 2012 12:52 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

" Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane"

Vic Sage
Mar 27 2012 01:05 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

"Hope" is the thing with feathers
That perches in the soul
And sings the tune without the words
And never stops at all

And sweetest in the Gale is heard
And sore must be the storm
That could abash the little Bird
That kept so many warm

I've heard it in the chillest land
And on the strangest Sea
Yet, never, in Extremity,
It asked a crumb of Me.

- Emily Dickinson

"How wrong Emily Dickinson was! Hope is not "the thing with feathers". The thing with feathers has turned to be my nephew. I must take him to a specialist in Zurich." - Woody Allen

Edgy MD
Mar 27 2012 01:19 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote:
I'm rooting for my child, too. But I'm not banking on her being able to read Ulysses by the end of the summer.

Hope for something vaguely realistic, and you won't be so disappointed that you end up, say, wanting to throw out $5 million dollar assets for having a bad Spring Training, or shitting on a knuckleballer/bearded good/decent guy just because.

I'm more or less cool with the notion that it might not play out to 97 wins. Baseball wins are a zero-sum game. All the kids can't be above average. One man's glory is another's disappointment. Cultural advancement, though, that can happen anywhere and any time. So, strive to win, yeah, but don't be a douchebag under any circumstances.

Fman99
Mar 27 2012 07:43 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

123-39. Win every fucking thing. BOOK IT.

bmfc1
Apr 02 2012 07:37 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Bump.

Nymr83
Apr 03 2012 12:06 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

70-92
last in the NL East.
no playoffs

MFS62
Apr 03 2012 10:03 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Where they will finish in the NL East - Fourth
What the final record will be - 78-84

But I'm as excited as a Pointer Sister about this season.
I think the Mets will both play exciting baseball with a lot of offense, as well as begin to show us more than a peek at some of the good prospects emerging from the minors.

Side note - good job, Edgy, in the BP DePodesta interview, even if he dwelt too much on your handle and didn't fully answer what you were asking to my satisfaction.
I thought you were asking if there is going to be a top-to-bottom organizational "playbook" such as the one Frank Cashen brought from Baltimore, from which things (like where to station the cutoff man, defending bunt plays, etc) are taught uniformly across all levels of the organization. He seemed to indicate different coaching will be permitted. Not what I wanted to hear.

Later

Edgy MD
Apr 14 2012 08:41 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

This 6-2 team is:

A. large illusion
B. a slight illusion
C. just a thang
D. a brief departure from an otherwise sad reality
E. an ephemeral tease before a cataclysmic disaster

Any re-assessments, or do we wait for game 10?

Benjamin Grimm
Apr 15 2012 04:59 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

I'd wait until May 15 or so.

This has been a lot of fun, but there's a long way to go.

TransMonk
Apr 15 2012 10:28 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Where they are at Memorial Day will be a good indicator to me.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Apr 15 2012 10:34 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

We've been helped by the opposition in 2 of 3 series being pretty underwhelming themselves so far. I think it's possible what we'ree guilty of is overrating the competition as much as underrating the Mets.

OTOH, Washington looks to have some mojo going themselves. Be great if the 2 of us ran and hid.

Edgy MD
May 26 2012 08:58 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Poster W L Pct Games off
Fman99 123 39 .759 29
Willets Point 102 60 .630 8
Edgy DC 97 65 .599 3
Current Met Pace 94 68 .578 --
metsguyinmichigan 87 75 .537 7
Ceetar 85 77 .525 9
John Cougar Lunchbucket 84 78 .519 10
metsmarathon 82 80 .506 12
Ashie62 82 80 .506 12
themetfairy 81 81 .500 13
Transmonk 78 84 .481 16
MFS62 78 84 .481 16
bfmc1 77 85 .475 17
Benjamin Grimm 76 86 .469 18
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr 76 86 .469 18
HahnSolo 75 87 .463 19
G-Fafif 74 88 .457 20
metirish 74 88 .457 20
Vic Sage 72 90 .444 22
The Second Spitter 70 92 .432 24
Nymr83 70 92 .432 24
Chad Ochoseis 69 93 .426 25
Gwreck 63 99 .389 31

bmfc1
May 26 2012 09:41 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Nice job with the chart Edgy.

Ceetar
May 26 2012 11:37 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

TransMonk wrote:
Where they are at Memorial Day will be a good indicator to me.

at worst, a 3 over team.

batmagadanleadoff
May 27 2012 02:24 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

It's no coincidence that I didn't predict the Mets. I usually avoid participating in these threads. Because ya never know.

Fman99
May 27 2012 09:27 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Edgy DC wrote:
Poster W L Pct Games off
Fman99 123 39 .759 29
Willets Point 102 60 .630 8
Edgy DC 97 65 .599 3
Current Met Pace 94 68 .578 --
metsguyinmichigan 87 75 .537 7
Ceetar 85 77 .525 9
John Cougar Lunchbucket 84 78 .519 10
metsmarathon 82 80 .506 12
Ashie62 82 80 .506 12
themetfairy 81 81 .500 13
Transmonk 78 84 .481 16
MFS62 78 84 .481 16
bfmc1 77 85 .475 17
Benjamin Grimm 76 86 .469 18
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr 76 86 .469 18
HahnSolo 75 87 .463 19
G-Fafif 74 88 .457 20
metirish 74 88 .457 20
Vic Sage 72 90 .444 22
The Second Spitter 70 92 .432 24
Nymr83 70 92 .432 24
Chad Ochoseis 69 93 .426 25
Gwreck 63 99 .389 31

This just proves how much more awesome I am than all of you negative Nellies.

Edgy MD
May 27 2012 09:36 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

I think I miscalculated and metsguy was closest to correct as of that post. I may be more correct today, though. Will recalc tomorrow.

Rockin' Doc
May 27 2012 11:04 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

I initially missed this thread (along with many others) during my work related hiatus, but I would have been expecting an 81-81 season and hoping for better. I'm not that sure that I expect much different (maybe 85 or 86 wins) from that at this point. It just seems to me that the Mets are winning with "smoke and mirrors" and I wonder how long it can actually last. Hopefully, I'm underestimating their talent and I will be pleasantly surprised come the end of the season.

Nymr83
May 28 2012 09:00 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Fman99 wrote:

This just proves how much more awesome I am than all of you negative Nellies.

While we'd all love for your prediction to come true, you are still further off the pace than all but the single most pessimistic person.

Edgy MD
May 29 2012 10:12 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

metsguyinmichigan is our new leading soothsayer.

Poster W L Pct Games off
Fman99 123 39 .759 32
Willets Point 102 60 .630 11
Edgy DC 97 65 .599 6
Current Met Pace 91 71 .560 --
metsguyinmichigan 87 75 .537 4
Ceetar 85 77 .525 6
John Cougar Lunchbucket 84 78 .519 7
metsmarathon 82 80 .506 9
Ashie62 82 80 .506 9
themetfairy 81 81 .500 10
Rockin' Doc (coming in late) 81 81 .500 10
Transmonk 78 84 .481 13
MFS62 78 84 .481 13
bfmc1 77 85 .475 14
Benjamin Grimm 76 86 .469 15
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr 76 86 .469 15
HahnSolo 75 87 .463 16
G-Fafif 74 88 .457 17
metirish 74 88 .457 17
Vic Sage 72 90 .444 19
The Second Spitter 70 92 .432 21
Nymr 70 92 .432 21
Chad Ochoseis 69 93 .426 22
Gwreck 63 99 .389 28

Edgy MD
Jul 05 2012 11:30 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Records for each predictor represenst their predictions adjusted for the number of games played. Good job MGiM. His W% isn't quite the same as the actual Mets winning percentage as his actual prediction works out to 44.574... before rounding, but otherwise, dead on through 83 games for you.

Poster W L Pct Games off
Fman99 63 20 .759 18
Willets Point 52 31 .630 7
Edgy DC 50 33 .599 5
2012 Mets 45 38 .542 --
metsguyinmichigan 45 38 .537 0
ceetar 44 39 .525 1
John Cougar Luncbucket 43 40 .519 2
metsmarathon 42 41 .506 3
Ashie62 42 41 .506 3
themetfairy 42 42 .500 4
Rockin Doc 42 42 .500 4
Transmonk 40 43 .481 5
MFS62 40 43 .481 5
bfmc1 39 44 .475 6
Benjamin Grimm 39 44 .469 6
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr 39 44 .469 6
HahnSolo 38 45 .463 7
G-Fafif 38 45 .457 7
metirish 38 45 .457 7
Vic Sage 37 46 .444 8
The Second Spitter 36 47 .432 9
Nymr 36 47 .432 9
Chad Ochoseis 35 48 .426 10
Gwreck 32 51 .389 13

Mets Guy in Michigan
Jul 06 2012 05:50 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Well, I did think they'd be better than all those last-place predictions. Would be happy if Fman is eventually correct!

Benjamin Grimm
Jul 26 2012 09:07 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Yikes... I can't believe that it was only 20 days ago that the Mets had a .542 winning percentage. (They're now at .480 and project to 78 wins.)

TransMonk
Jul 26 2012 09:14 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Benjamin Grimm wrote:
(They're now at .480 and project to 78 wins.)

Ugh, that's me.

Benjamin Grimm
Sep 16 2012 03:49 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

The Mets now need to go 16 and 0 to finish with a winning record, 15-1 to end at .500.

They currently project to 73 wins and 89 losses.

Edgy MD
Sep 16 2012 07:38 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Ech.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Sep 16 2012 07:49 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Vic and the Irish/G-Fafif/Hahn crowd are looking smart.

Benjamin Grimm
Sep 23 2012 06:46 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

With only ten games remaining, these are the prognosticators who still have a chance at getting it exactly right:

Transmonk 78 84
MFS62 78 84
bfmc1 77 85
Benjamin Grimm 76 86
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr 76 86
HahnSolo 75 87
G-Fafif 74 88
metirish 74 88
Vic Sage 72 90
The Second Spitter 70 92
Nymr83 70 92
Chad Ochoseis 69 93

Assuming all ten remaining games get played, somebody will end up right on the money unless the Mets go 2-8 or 4-6. My hunch is that they'll go 3-7, giving Vic Sage the bragging rights.

Edgy MD
Sep 23 2012 08:42 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Current standings.

Percentages represent the final 162-game percentage predicted at the top of the season. Records represent the final records predicted, adjusted to the current number of games played, rounded off to nearest whole numbers, so the percentages won't be an exact match for the records.

Poster W L Pct Games off
Fman99-E 115 37 .759 46
Willets Point-E 96 56 .630 27
Edgy DC-E 91 61 .599 22
metsguyinmichigan-E 82 70 .537 13
ceetar-E 80 72 .525 11
John Cougar Luncbucket-E 79 73 .519 10
metsmarathon-E 77 75 .506 8
Ashie62-E 77 75 .506 8
themetfairy-E 76 76 .500 7
Rockin Doc-E 76 76 .500 7
Transmonk 73 79 .481 4
MFS62 73 79 .481 4
bfmc1 72 80 .475 3
Benjamin Grimm 71 81 .469 2
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr 71 81 .469 2
HahnSolo 70 82 .463 1
G-Fafif 69 83 .457 0
metirish 69 83 .457 0
2012 Mets 69 83 .454 --
Vic Sage 68 84 .444 1
The Second Spitter 66 86 .432 3
Nymr 66 86 .432 3
Chad Ochoseis 65 87 .426 4
Gwreck-E 59 93 .389 10

Mets – Willets Point
Sep 23 2012 08:50 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

This is why I picked an outlier. If I was right, I'm a genius as opposed to being one of ten people waiting for the roulette wheel to land on their gloomily realistic number in the last week of the season.

Edgy MD
Sep 24 2012 07:07 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Definitely. Play the number that pays off big.

MFS62
Sep 24 2012 09:43 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

How is the attendance prediction contest going?

Later

Edgy MD
Sep 24 2012 09:48 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

That wasn't a contest, so much as a mere poll.

Vic Sage
Oct 01 2012 09:24 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

The prediction thread goes into its final series. Mets currently have 73 wins with 2 games to go.

* if they win 0, no one will have called it exactly, so it will be a 3-way tie between me (at 72) and G-Fafif and Irish (both at 74);
* If they win 1, it's a 2-way tie between G-Fafif and Irish (both at 74); and
* If they win 2, HahnSolo is the Solo winner (at 75).

May the worst team win!

bmfc1
Oct 03 2012 04:53 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Congratulations to G-Fafif and metirish on winning the "Predict the Mets" contest for 2012:
G-Fafif 74 88 .457
metirish 74 88 .457

I'll start the next one in late March.

G-Fafif
Oct 03 2012 05:55 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

bmfc1 wrote:
Congratulations to G-Fafif and metirish on winning the "Predict the Mets" contest for 2012:
G-Fafif 74 88 .457
metirish 74 88 .457

I'll start the next one in late March.

Thank you. Irish and I just finished blowing the nonexistent cash prize on invisible Korbel that we didn't pour over each other's heads.

Vic Sage
Oct 03 2012 09:05 PM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

1 game out of the money, gosh darn it. To think, right now i could not be drinking Korbels i don't have.

HahnSolo
Oct 04 2012 08:29 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

Since I lost by one game and I need someone to blame, I'm sure Frank Frank blew a game along the way. SO I blame him. Or maybe Jeff.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Oct 04 2012 09:02 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

With a shouting-distance finish here and a win in the attendance derby, do I win the sad-predictions all-around?

MFS62
Oct 04 2012 09:28 AM
Re: Predict the Mets, 2012

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote:
With a shouting-distance finish here and a win in the attendance derby, do I win the sad-predictions all-around?

It depends on how many winning and losing IGTs you started. It could cost you some points.

Later