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Sequences

Edgy MD Apr 06 2012 04:12 PM

I was thinking of a sequence from yesterday's game in the eighth inning. It's one you see in most games these days. A team has a chance to break the game open in the late innings. Some guys get on and the middle of the order is coming up. The opposing manager goes to his lefty specialist with the same instructions: 1) Work the lefties by alternating the fastball inside and the slider away. 2) There'll be a righty coming up between the lefties. Pitch around that guy. If you can get him to chase, great. Otherwise, it's OK to lose him. Usually a team only needs two outs here. The Mets had one out and Murphy on second and Wright on third. Not much speed there. Davis-Bay-Duda comign up, but Venters, already in the game, knew the sequence. He fanned Ike Davis with the slider, he walked Bay on four pitches, then got Duda on three pitches. Swinging at the slider. As I said, it's a common enough sequence. We've seen the Mets pull it off enough, send in Feliciano to get Howard and Utley, while pitching around Werth or somebody. John Rocker was so effective in such situations --- going after Olerud, pitching around Piazza, then going after Ventura --- that Bobby Valentine chose the post-season to change the lineup he had been using all year, to bat Olerud second and put Alfonzo third as a second righty in between the lefties. Rocker had to pitch to somebody. But it's a strategy that's got a thin margin of error, and I'm thinking that one of the things that separates good teams from bad is the vulnerability to this. Will Davis and Duda continue to be as hapless against lefty specialists as they were yesterday? Will Bay be able to intimidate them in between, at least enough to get a walk and increase the pressure? I do know I sure don't want them batting back to back after what I saw yesterday, and if Bay continues to perform poorly, I'd like them maybe to move both Davis and Duda up in the lineup, so as to put Wright in between 'em.

Ceetar Apr 06 2012 06:12 PM Re: Sequences

Well, this wasn't really a lefty specialist. This was Johnny Venters. Sure, he holds lefties to a .402 OPS last season, but he held righties to a .545 OPS too. but I get what you're saying. It's funny how we didn't worry about this stuff as much when we had Reyes and Beltran. The Mets are VERY lefty heavy now. Tejada, Wright, Bay. From that stance I might agree with moving 'em around in the lineup. Get the real lefty-masher in Wright right in the middle of the mess. Still, I like Duda behind Bay right now. Yes, both Davis and Duda need to hit lefties, but we saw yesterday even with Venters they were willing to pitch around Bay. So let them. I honestly trust Duda being the guy to get the shot than pitching around Duda to get to Bay with a righty reliever. While I want Duda to get the chance against the southpaws, you also give yourself the option to use Hairston as both the lefty-mashing bench guy pinchhitting for duda, but then leave him in for defense in RF. efficient.

Fman99 Apr 06 2012 06:39 PM Re: Sequences

If only Jason Bay had some kind of pedigree as a MLB hitter.

Edgy MD Apr 06 2012 08:16 PM Re: Sequences

A guy who gets people out at that rate wouldn't throw Bay a strike. I guess it's worth something. It'll be interesting to see how managers choose their poison going forward. And speaking of choosing your poison, I can say enough what a wimpy move it was for Girardi to go walking Sean Rodriguez in the first. You're the New York Yankees for Pete's sake. Show some pride.

Ceetar Apr 06 2012 09:28 PM Re: Sequences

Edgy DC wrote: And speaking of choosing your poison, I can say enough what a wimpy move it was for Girardi to go walking Sean Rodriguez in the first. You're the New York Yankees for Pete's sake. Show some pride. No you can't, nor should you. The Yankees market pride, they don't play with it.

Edgy MD Apr 26 2012 09:49 PM Re: Sequences

So, you're Heath Bell. You have David Wright on second with one out after you just got Lucas Duda on a groundout. Ike Davis is up. [list:1iadnxvo][*:1iadnxvo]On the one hand, Davis is slumping as much as anybody on earth. [/*:m:1iadnxvo] [*:1iadnxvo]On the other, he's historically a dangerous hitter and a threat to hit a two-run homer to win it. [/*:m:1iadnxvo] [*:1iadnxvo]On the one hand, you just got Duda, another lefthanded slugger, on a meek grounder. [/*:m:1iadnxvo] [*:1iadnxvo]On the other, Davis has the type of loop to his swing that can get under your sinker. [/*:m:1iadnxvo] [*:1iadnxvo]On the one hand, you can set up the double play by putting Davis on. [/*:m:1iadnxvo] [*:1iadnxvo]On the other, you'd be bringing up Josh Thole, who nobody is getting out. Not with any regularity. [/*:m:1iadnxvo] [*:1iadnxvo]On the one hand, the book says to not put the winning run on base intentionally. [/*:m:1iadnxvo] [*:1iadnxvo]On the other hand, the book also says to play for the win on the road and the tie at home, which suggests that you don't worry about the winning run, but worry about keeping that runner on second, and to keep him from scoring.[/*:m:1iadnxvo][/list:u:1iadnxvo] We know how this turned out. Bell pitched around him. Maybe he hoped Ike would chase, but Ike was too bright and he really pitched around him with seemingly no plan at all --- missing up, down, in, and out with the four pitches. Did he and Ozzie play it right? I think it all unraveled on Bell right there. Thole is just such a tough out, and he's got this loft-a-soft-liner-into-left thing going. He's been getting under the ball against righties, and he seems an unlikely doubleplay candidate there, and while the Turner battle was epic, he already had the tying run on third with less than two out. It all came down to Ike vs. Thole, or at least Ike vs. Thole-plus-a-double-play-possibility. And the way Ike is hitting, I think they made the wrong choice. And the pitcharound was just fugly. Bell looked lost from there on out --- and I was watching on Gameday.

Fman99 Apr 27 2012 05:53 AM Re: Sequences

Edgy DC wrote: So, you're Heath Bell. You have David Wright on second with one out after you've just got Lucas Duda on a groundout. Ike Davis is up. [list][*]On the one hand, Davis is slumping as much as anybody on earth. [/*:m] [*]On the other, he's historically a dangerous hitter and a threat to hit a two-run homer to win it. [/*:m] [*]On the one hand, you just got Duda, another lefthanded slugger, on a meek grounder. [/*:m] [*]On the other, Davis has the type of loop to his swing that can get under your sinker. [/*:m] [*]On the one hand, you can set up the double play by putting Davis on. [/*:m] [*]On the other, you'd be bringing up Josh Thole, who nobody is getting out. Not with any regularity. [/*:m] [*]On the one hand, the book says to not put the winning run on base intentionally. [/*:m] [*]On the other hand, the book also says to play for the win on the road and the tie at home, which suggests that you don't worry about the winning run, but worry about keeping that runner on second, and to keep him from scoring.[/*:m][/list:u] Heath Bell is some kind of octopus then?

Edgy MD May 07 2012 08:26 PM Re: Sequences

So, I tuned in just as Josh Thole was getting run down and now I'm reviewing this great game. Juan Pierre leads off the seventh and he's the go-ahead run. Juan Pierre, through his career, has derived a large percentage of his value from his legs. He's older now, but he's 4-6 in stolen bases already. [list=1:2nvgz6vx][*:2nvgz6vx]Bobby Parnell throws over before his first pitch. Pierre doesn't run on pitch one, a fastball [/*:m:2nvgz6vx] [*:2nvgz6vx]Parnell throws over twice before pitch two. Pierre doesn't run on pitch two, a fastball. [/*:m:2nvgz6vx] [*:2nvgz6vx]Parnell doesn't throw over before pitch three. Pierre doesn't run on pitch three, a slider. [/*:m:2nvgz6vx] [*:2nvgz6vx]Parnell doesn't throw over before pitch four. Pierre doesn't run on pitch four, a fastball, which Rollins lofts into center for a single. [/*:m:2nvgz6vx] [*:2nvgz6vx]Pierre doesn't go to third on the hit. [/*:m:2nvgz6vx] [*:2nvgz6vx]Pierre also fails to advance as John Mayberry flies out to Lucas Duda. [/*:m:2nvgz6vx] [*:2nvgz6vx]Pierre advances to third on an infield hit by Shane Victorino. [/*:m:2nvgz6vx] [*:2nvgz6vx]Pierrre is left stranded as Hunter Pence grounds into a double play.[/*:m:2nvgz6vx][/list:o:2nvgz6vx] This game may have an entirely different complexion if Pierre does what you look to him to do in any of three situations there: stealing, taking the extra base, or tagging on a fly to right. Again, I tuned in late, and last two may have been absolute non-starters, but kudos to the Mets for playign crisply enough to keep the guy in neutral.

Edgy MD May 21 2012 08:49 PM Re: Sequences

I came in late, so forgive me please if this has been discussed. Go-ahead runner on third in the eighth. The Mets play in and get the first out. Up comes Clint Barmes, a giant threat maybe not, but an experienced contact hitter. On deck is banjo-hitting backup catcher Mike McHenry. Don't you want to put Walker on and set up McHenry for the strikeout that inexperienced guys are prone to or the double play that catchers are prone to?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr May 21 2012 09:08 PM Re: Sequences

The prospect of putting Barmes on crossed my mind (or perhaps just pitching around him, hoping he'd roll over for a weak grounder), just because I figured he wasn't going to K there. If you think about it, though, the odds are about the same that he makes weak contact there than they are whatshisface strikes out behind him. (Plus, the catcher HAD hit a home run an inning earlier against a better pitcher, so a sacrifice fly wasn't out of the question from him.)

John Cougar Lunchbucket May 21 2012 09:15 PM Re: Sequences

The big sequence was the one that retired Nickeas without putting the bat on the ball. I'm afraid he just sucks a little bit too much to remain up here.

Edgy MD May 21 2012 09:27 PM Re: Sequences

Yeah, I'm just looking for second-guess points where a manager went left instead of right during the game. That decison point with Nickeas might have been April 1. But yeah, the team might have gone out and pinch hit there. In fact, Jerry probably does it, and does it with Rob Johnson, adding an extra dose of humiliation by sending his backup out to hit for him. (Wait a minute, am I taking Jerry Manuel's part here? I'm not sure.) Don't feel bad for Nickeas. He can get a sweet little job with a boy band. Check out his awesome hair.

Edgy MD May 22 2012 09:06 PM Re: Sequences

So with Torres pinch-hitting for Dickey in the eighth and Hairston pinch-hitting for Byrdak in the ninth, either time, Terry missed an opportunity to sub out Duda for defense. Switching Torres to center and Nieuie to right might indeed have helped in the eighth, as both Tabata's double and McCutcheon's pop single off Murphy's glove might have been corralled by a better outfielder.

Edgy MD Jul 31 2012 06:39 AM Re: Sequences

Tenth inning and two out last night. Tying run on second, and the go-ahead on first. Brandon "Good, Stiff" Belt is up, with the pitcher on deck, and no pinch-hitters available. In fact, the team's best hitting pitcher --- Matt "Adam Raised a" Cain --- has already been burned as a pinch-runner. Belt's rarely knocked anybody out at this level, but he's a major league hitter, and considered to have the talent to succeed. Do you pitch to him, or walk him, putting the tying run on third, and the winning run on second. Yeah, you go from a pro to an amateur at the plate, which is no small thing, but you also (a) make the tying run something that needs a long single or an extra-base hit to score, to one that score on anything, including a walk or a hit batsman, (b) put the winning run in the former position, and (c) leave the likes of Acosta and Johnson working without a net with regards to a pitch bouncing to the backstop. What do you do? What DO you DO?

Ceetar Jul 31 2012 06:49 AM Re: Sequences

I don't move the winning run up. Maybe if I trusted the defense more, but I don't, and they seem to fade in close spots as well.

Edgy MD Jul 31 2012 06:55 AM Re: Sequences

Yeah, walking Belt is one of those moves I make in a tabletop dice game, but not in weal wife.

Ceetar Jul 31 2012 07:01 AM Re: Sequences

I'd walk him at home though I think. More margin for error.

Frayed Knot Jul 31 2012 07:35 AM Re: Sequences

The biggest problem in walking Belt was Acosta pitching with the bases loaded given his (lack of) control that evening. He had already walked two weak hitters (albeit not relief pitchers) that inning and some of those pitches weren't even close. The upside is that I don't think there's anything Bochy could have done to counter. Like you said, Cain, along with starter Bungarner, are his best hitting pitchers and they were both already used. Plus he was probably out of relievers too making it impossible to even PH one of the other starters (Zito, Lincecum, Vogelsong) who would presumably handle a bat better than Clay (I'm 8 for 87 in my career and no hits since 2008) Hensley.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jul 31 2012 08:42 AM Re: Sequences Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 31 2012 09:26 AM

I do just what was done. I don't know if there's a pitcher in this 'pen-- MAYBE Edgin-- that I'd trust to work with a one-run lead and the bases loaded and NOT walk the guy at the plate.

Frayed Knot Jul 31 2012 08:45 AM Re: Sequences

Kind of a good news/bad news thing that the guy we most trust out of the pen, Edgin, is the one only in the majors about an hour and a half. He, along with Hairston obviously, was the real hero last night.

Edgy MD Jul 31 2012 08:59 AM Re: Sequences

He also ended up with a blown save, mostly because of the mistakes of others he was inheriting.

Ceetar Jul 31 2012 09:02 AM Re: Sequences

Edgy DC wrote: He also ended up with a blown save, mostly because of the mistakes of others he was inheriting. a double a walk and a single is 'mostly'?

Edgy MD Jul 31 2012 09:05 AM Re: Sequences

Are you just gonna argue with me about everything I post the rest of my life? Let me test: The grass looks green.

Ceetar Jul 31 2012 09:10 AM Re: Sequences

Edgy DC wrote: Are you just gonna argue with me about everything I post the rest of my life? Let me test: The grass looks green. Have you felt this crazy heat? all the grass is dead.

Edgy MD Jul 31 2012 09:13 AM Re: Sequences

Yes, I believe the majority of the responsibility for the lost lead belonged to others.

Swan Swan H Jul 31 2012 09:27 AM Re: Sequences

Edgy DC wrote: Yes, I believe the majority of the responsibility for the lost lead belonged to others. Define majority? 51%? 99%? There's a lot of room in there. Also, Pantone lists 394 colors with the word 'green' in their name. Be more specific, would you please? How can Ceetar argue properly if he doesn't have all the facts?

Benjamin Grimm Jul 31 2012 09:45 AM Re: Sequences

I'd argue that there should be no more than 357 shades of green.

Swan Swan H Jul 31 2012 09:49 AM Re: Sequences

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I'd argue that there should be no more than 357 shades of green. If that's the case, Pumpsie Green should be the first to go.

Edgy MD Jul 31 2012 09:53 AM Re: Sequences

Swan Swan H wrote: Edgy DC wrote: Yes, I believe the majority of the responsibility for the lost lead belonged to others. Define majority? 51%? 99%? There's a lot of room in there. Also, Pantone lists 394 colors with the word 'green' in their name. Be more specific, would you please? How can Ceetar argue properly if he doesn't have all the facts? Oh, I'm SO going give you such a pinch.

Frayed Knot Jul 31 2012 11:22 AM Re: Sequences

Edgy DC wrote: He also ended up with a blown save, mostly because of the mistakes of others he was inheriting. He also ended up with his first ML win.