Standings, Twenty-Twelve

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Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Edgy MD
Apr 12 2012 02:44 PM

Nats win on wild pitch in 10th. Mets fall into second place.

East W L PCT GB NGB L10 Away Home Away
Washington 5 2 .714 - - 5-2 W3 1-0 4-2
=#0000FF]NY Mets 4 2 .667 0.5 0.5 4-2 L2 4-2 0-0
=#BF0000]Philadelphia 2 3 .400 2.0 3.5 2-3 W1 1-1 1-2
=#000080]Atlanta 2 4 .333 2.5 5.0 2-4 W2 0-0 2-4
=#FF4000]Miami 2 4 .333 2.5 5.0 2-4 L1 0-1 2-3

Benjamin Grimm
Apr 12 2012 02:56 PM
Re: Standings

BOOOOOOOOOOO![/bigpurple]

Edgy MD
Apr 12 2012 03:16 PM
Re: Standings

Dude, we still qualify for a wild card spot.

Benjamin Grimm
Apr 12 2012 03:30 PM
Re: Standings

I'm just trying to get a jump on the negativity.

Ceetar
Apr 12 2012 03:30 PM
Re: Standings

Edgy DC wrote:
Dude, we still qualify for a wild card spot.

division or bust. Wild Card is a crap shoot. None of this "well, maybe we can snag that second spot" stuff.

Edgy MD
Apr 12 2012 03:34 PM
Re: Standings

Well, it's where we are now, not what I'm rooting for.

TransMonk
Apr 12 2012 03:35 PM
Re: Standings

I'll be overjoyed if this team is good enough to clinch the second wildcard spot this season.

Frayed Knot
Apr 12 2012 03:36 PM
Re: Standings

The Nats win today was 3-2 on a 10th inning wild pitch. This was all after Lidge blew a 2-0 lead in the 9th.

So while I don't want to say the Nats are getting lucky here cuz they're certainly getting good starting pitching (7 shut-out innings from Gio Gonzalez today on the heels of 6 from Strasburg & 5 from Detwiler) but, geez, that's 5 of their last 7 runs scored (and 7 of their last 11) that were "driven in" via walks, errors, short fly balls, ground outs, and WPs

TransMonk
Apr 12 2012 03:41 PM
Re: Standings

It will be hard for them to sustain these type of wins over the next 6 months. Eventually, they will need to start stringing hits together.

Ceetar
Apr 12 2012 04:01 PM
Re: Standings

The counter argument is that if you can steal wins that way while not hitting, it minimizes the losses while you're offense is slumping.

Edgy MD
Apr 29 2012 08:10 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Don't know how or when Atlanta snuck in there. I guess it has something to do with sweeping the Mets.

East W L PCT GB NGB L10 Away Home Away
Atlanta 14 8 .636 -- -- 7-3 W1 7-2 7-6
=#FF0000]Washington 14 8 .636 -- -- 5-5 L4 8-2 6-6
=#0000FF]NY Mets 13 9 .591 1.0 2.0 6-4 W2 8-5 5-4
=#BF0000]Philadelphia 10 12 .455 11.0 3.5 5-5 L1 4-5 6-7
=#FF4000]Miami 8 13 .381 5.5 17.0 3-7 L1 6-4 2-9

Gwreck
Apr 29 2012 08:57 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Edgy DC wrote:
I guess it has something to do with sweeping the Mets.

Wasn't a sweep; Mets lost 2 of 3 in Atlanta.

soupcan
Apr 30 2012 08:41 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm pleasantly surprised.

Not getting caught up in it though as I can't believe they'll even finish .500.

Would love to see it, but can't believe it....yet.

Edgy MD
Apr 30 2012 08:44 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Believe it. And not just because it's the only article of faith for Met fans. Really, things certainly could fall apart in the next two months, but as the season progresses, they have a good chance to get better, not worse.

TransMonk
Apr 30 2012 08:56 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The longer they stay over .500, the more I believe. Honestly, they have more-or-less looked better than I thought they would through the first month. I'd be happier if Pelfrey wasn't lost for the year, but I do like this team.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Apr 30 2012 10:44 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

I can't be the only one breathing a sigh of relief after nearly every win that the opposition played as badly as they did.

I'm not saying that's a bad thing, as beating bad teams is what good teams do.

Edgy MD
Apr 30 2012 10:51 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

My thinking is that young teams get better as the season progresses, and Terry has the team grinding hard enough to keep at it even after they screw up, instead of drowning in despondency. (They're a team of Daniel Murphys in this regard.)

He did last year, too. And it's a real contrast with Doghouse Manuel, from my perspective.

TransMonk
Apr 30 2012 11:14 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Edgy DC wrote:
My thinking is that young teams get better as the season progresses...

I agree with this. This team is really thin and really can't afford any more injuries anywhere.

Benjamin Grimm
Apr 30 2012 11:20 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Yeah, but they may also not deal with adversity as well as a more experienced team would.

I'm still very much wait-and-see with this year's Mets. I don't expect any October excitement, but I'd be delighted with a finish above .500.

Edgy MD
Apr 30 2012 11:37 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Injuries suck. They've undermined many a recent season, so it certainly makes sense that we are constantly conscious of them. But I'm not so sure this team is any more vulnerable to them than most. Younger players get hurt less frequently, recover faster, and recover more fully, and these Mets are younger than most. Meanstwhile, the Phillies await the return of their two best hitters, and wonder where Utley is going to play, because they don't think he'll come back with the range to play second, and they're waiting for Howard to play first. Poorly.

Meanwhile, Buffalo is 14-10, so there must be some dudes who can help down there. Mike Baxter has gone from being an embarrassing load at the end of the bench to being Rusty Staub's little brother. Washington has played their ace in Bryce Harper, but our aces (particularly Harvey) remain in the hole. Nice.

The longer Schwinnie, Hefner, Young, et al. can keep us from having to play that ace, the better, so that's certainly something to watch.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Apr 30 2012 11:44 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

I feel like I'm talking to myself here but afaic, Schwinny ought to be on a very short leash here. Did not pitch nearly well enough in his first start, especially given the fact he had a nice lead, and taxed the crap out of the bullpen too. And I think it is important that he pretty much did the same thing last year too. If 4+ IP, 5 ER is what we can expect, he's got no biz interfering with what little mo we have now. I'd put him at the back of the line.

Edgy MD
Apr 30 2012 11:49 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Oh, certainly. Schwinstone is pitching for his life. I'm willing to write off the Coors start to the Coors factor if he's willing to isolate it in his performance. Another offensive park in Houston, but show me something.

Hefner has certainly done a better job of capturing my imagination --- an all-important measurement of success.

attgig
Apr 30 2012 12:00 PM
Re: Standings

Frayed Knot wrote:
The Nats win today was 3-2 on a 10th inning wild pitch. This was all after Lidge blew a 2-0 lead in the 9th.

So while I don't want to say the Nats are getting lucky here cuz they're certainly getting good starting pitching (7 shut-out innings from Gio Gonzalez today on the heels of 6 from Strasburg & 5 from Detwiler) but, geez, that's 5 of their last 7 runs scored (and 7 of their last 11) that were "driven in" via walks, errors, short fly balls, ground outs, and WPs

They're doing this with Zimmerman out. Morse has been out since the beginning of the year and was expected to be a middle of the lineup hitter. Now they got Bryce up. They'll be interesting come late May/early June when Zimmerman comes back and Morse could come back around then as well.

Their offense could match their pitching at that point...and they may be scary good.

attgig
Apr 30 2012 12:01 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Edgy DC wrote:
Oh, certainly. Schwinstone is pitching for his life. I'm willing to write off the Coors start to the Coors factor if he's willing to isolate it in his performance. Another offensive park in Houston, but show me something.

Hefner has certainly done a better job of capturing my imagination --- an all-important measurement of success.

yeah, MinuteMaid's an offensive park, but it is the Astros....

Edgy MD
Apr 30 2012 12:10 PM
Re: Standings

attgig wrote:
Their offense could match their pitching at that point...and they may be scary good.

Let's pass them now to be safe.

batmagadanleadoff
May 01 2012 09:02 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The Mets phenomenal record in one and two run games this season coupled with Bill James' Pythagorean theorem, suggests that the Mets are a very lucky last place team.

Ceetar
May 01 2012 09:05 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

batmagadanleadoff wrote:
The Mets phenomenal record in one and two run games this season coupled with Bill James' Pythagorean theorem, suggests that the Mets are a very lucky last place team.

I don't think it suggests that at all. I don't think it's predictive.

batmagadanleadoff
May 01 2012 09:12 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Ceetar wrote:
batmagadanleadoff wrote:
The Mets phenomenal record in one and two run games this season coupled with Bill James' Pythagorean theorem, suggests that the Mets are a very lucky last place team.

I don't think it suggests that at all. I don't think it's predictive.

If the Mets keep on winning one and two run games at the current pace, well yeah, they're not gonna finish in last place. But a one or two run game is likelier to be decided by luck than a five or six run game. A team's record in games decided by larger margins is a more reliable measure of its true talent. The '69 Mets were 40-19 in one run games.

Ceetar
May 01 2012 09:26 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

A team's record in games decided by larger margins is a more reliable measure of its true talent.

There a write up on this somewhere?

We're still in the small sample size space. Duda and Davis aren't really hitting for instance. The offense clearly isn't playing to potential. The Mets reasonably projected to have one of the best offense in the league, and they've scored more than 3 runs in an inning what..twice? this year. That will change. I think the one-run wins is a reflection of the Mets possessing quality players that both keep the offense from bottoming out completely, and manage to hold down leads via good pitching. There record probably is better than it should've been in 1-run games, and they probably have some luck, and some Heath Bell to thank for things like that, but while we can't always expect the Mets to win every 1-run game, we can't reasonably expect the Mets to play as many 1-run games either.

batmagadanleadoff
May 01 2012 09:43 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The Mets phenomenal record in one and two run games this season coupled with Bill James' Pythagorean theorem, suggests that the Mets are a very lucky last place team.

Did Megdal copy my post again -- 11 minutes ago?

As I thought more about last night�s 4-3 loss to the Astros, a game lost by the bullpen, the phrase kept coming back to me- wasted opportunity.

Let�s put it this way: the Mets are 13-10, but they haven�t really played like a 13-10 team. Their Pythagorean record, based on runs scored and runs allowed, is actually 9-14. They are actually playing at a 63-win pace per production, but winning at a 91-win pace. If you are betting on what is likelier to happen going forward- continuing to outpace production, or regressing to that production in their results- the smart money is on the latter.

So really, they must, must win those games like Monday night to bank wins. Inherent in even the performance to date is an offense that really might be overachieving. So far, the Mets have received better than league average production (an OPS+ of greater than 100) at every position but first base-at some positions, much more than league average. Six Mets are at 114 or better. ZIPS projections, however, had just five Mets above 100, and none above 116. So either ZIPS is way off, or the Met offense is due to regress in a big way.

In the rotation so far, three of the five Mets starters have an ERA+ 126 or better, and one of those three, Mike Pelfrey, won�t throw another pitch this season. ZIPS had Santana at 108, Dickey at 102, and everyone else below league average.

But the bullpen: that�s performing just about as expected. And that�s too bad.

If the bullpen had held, New York would be 14-9. That�s not enough to guard against all that regression. But if at least some of the early production is for real- and for my money, Ruben Tejada and Lucas Duda are two examples of players who appear ready to bull through their mean projections- they�ll need to bank all the wins they can get. It�s still going to be hard in this division.

Fman99
May 01 2012 09:52 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Ceetar wrote:
The Mets reasonably projected to have one of the best offense in the league

Really? That's some wild eyed optimism and/or meth rock smoking. I was and still am hopeful that guys like Tejada and Duda can take the next step, that Murphy can continue to hit for average and that Jason Bay could manage to not kill any one who was hitting successfully. But I don't think many people reasonably projected the Mets hitters as a group to be much better than average, aside from you.

I'm just saying.

Ceetar
May 01 2012 09:53 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

we're also leaving out in our 'the Mets have to regress' arguments, that the Mets are HORRIBLE with the bases loaded. That will regress too. It's not so much that the Mets haven't been getting on base at a good clip, it's that they've been failing to drive them in. Luck has created a lot of baserunners but less RBIs. More solo home runs than 3-run home runs.

Fman99 wrote:
Ceetar wrote:
The Mets reasonably projected to have one of the best offense in the league

Really? That's some wild eyed optimism and/or meth rock smoking. I was and still am hopeful that guys like Tejada and Duda can take the next step, that Murphy can continue to hit for average and that Jason Bay could manage to not kill any one who was hitting successfully. But I don't think many people reasonably projected the Mets hitters as a group to be much better than average, aside from you.

I'm just saying.

I'm by far not the only one, and the math works too. They should be better than last year, in which they were in the top bunch, and part of that projection was David Wright being much better, which appears to be true.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
May 01 2012 12:11 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

"Good" offense, yes. "One of the best... in the league?" One of the 9 or 10 best, certainly. Otherwise... not really.

That the Mets are looking better than predicted is great... but it doesn't change the fact that most didn't expect the bats to be more than league-average-y.

Edgy MD
May 01 2012 12:15 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Looking worse than I expected.

TransMonk
May 01 2012 12:30 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

This is a team that leads the league in Ks and has little-to-no speed...and these are things that are not going to improve much as the sample size gets bigger. The offense is flawed, but they've shown their ability to get on base and win close games.

Yes, they have been lucky. But so what? A 162 game baseball season eliminates most of the luck that any one team can acquire. I'm happy that they are where they are for now. This is a team that should be looking to improve game by game and not worry about regression to the mean or pythagorean winning percentages or what their record is going to be in September. Build, improve, sustain. Enjoy the ride. We're obviously not there yet.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
May 01 2012 12:34 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The one thing that's changed for me this year is that I feel the Mets can not be particularly great but can still contend: The division and league seems to have rolled back to them a bit so far.

Particularly if they can solve the No. 5 starter thing and Dickey can stop giving up HRs like they were book signings at film openings.

Ceetar
May 01 2012 12:43 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote:
"Good" offense, yes. "One of the best... in the league?" One of the 9 or 10 best, certainly. Otherwise... not really.

That the Mets are looking better than predicted is great... but it doesn't change the fact that most didn't expect the bats to be more than league-average-y.

I understand we lost Reyes and Beltran, but Duda and Davis and more of a better Wright and also less AB from Justin Turner. (and Willie Harris)

Should that not be better than last year? Obviously health plays in, but health always plays in.

They were 6th last year in runs scored, best in the division. second in OBP with all reasonable projections putting them at more power leading to more runs out of that OBP (which is what hasn't happened yet)

They scored 718 runs. here's a poll that suggests many people think they'll score more than 700.

http://www.tedquarters.net/2012/03/01/m ... -under-14/

Ceetar
May 01 2012 12:49 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

TransMonk wrote:
This is a team that leads the league in Ks and has little-to-no speed...and these are things that are not going to improve much as the sample size gets bigger.

Ike Davis is not going to strike out nearly 200 times.

Lucas Duda is not going to strike out the 150+ times he's on pace for.

Torres WILL add more speed than Hairston and Baxter. And the team's not necessarily slow. Duda's slow and Davis and Thole are below average, but that's it. everyone else is serviceable. Murphy's not fast but he's not an anchor, and he certainly has plenty of defensive range and probably shouldn't be stealing anyway. I imagine if i went to look up the stats you'd find he goes first to third as much as anyone.

TransMonk
May 01 2012 12:55 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Who is going to lead the team in steals this season and how many will they swipe?

OE: And I'm not looking at individuals and their Ks. I'm talking about Tejada striking out when the situation calls for a groundball to the right side or Thole striking out when a long fly ball will score a run. IMO, this team will finish in the top 5 of the NL in Ks.

Ceetar
May 01 2012 01:13 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

TransMonk wrote:
Who is going to lead the team in steals this season and how many will they swipe?

OE: And I'm not looking at individuals and their Ks. I'm talking about Tejada striking out when the situation calls for a groundball to the right side or Thole striking out when a long fly ball will score a run. IMO, this team will finish in the top 5 of the NL in Ks.

yes, but all that's minor stuff (and fluky) they're going to score a ton of runs.

batmagadanleadoff
May 01 2012 01:30 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

I wasn't trying to predict where the Mets would finish this season. I merely observed that given their quality of play to date, they're extremely fortunate. Things could be a lot worse. Should be a lot worse. The Mets are still mathematically alive if the playoffs started today.

Ceetar wrote:
batmagadanleadoff wrote:
The Mets phenomenal record in one and two run games this season coupled with Bill James' Pythagorean theorem, suggests that the Mets are a very lucky last place team.

I don't think it suggests that at all. I don't think it's predictive.

James' Theorem is highly predictive and correlates powerfully to a team's won-loss record. But even without getting into the simple junior high school math behind the theorem, it's plainly obvious that a team that allows more than 20% of the number of runs it scores will almost always be among the league's worst. There's no way to get around this fact.

Edgy MD
May 01 2012 01:31 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Well, there's the sample size thing. It's early.

batmagadanleadoff
May 01 2012 01:33 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Edgy DC wrote:
Well, there's the sample size thing. It's early.

Yeah. And that's why I wasn't predicting the rest of the season.

Ceetar
May 01 2012 01:37 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

batmagadanleadoff wrote:
Edgy DC wrote:
Well, there's the sample size thing. It's early.

Yeah. And that's why I wasn't predicting the rest of the season.

calling them lucky, and a last place team, is predicting.

Frayed Knot
May 01 2012 01:39 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

End of April snapshot

--- RS/G BA OBA SLG WkRate IsoP K
NL-Avg 4.00 .247 .314 .383 .067 .136 170
METS 3.96 .268 .341 .390 .073 .122 196
Place 9th 2nd 2nd T-7th --- --- 1st

--- RA/G WHiP Ks HRs OPS-A
NL-Avg 4.00 1.281 170 19 .687
METS 4.83 1.366 185 23 .735
Place 14th 13th 5th 13th 12th

Edgy MD
May 01 2012 01:56 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

batmagadanleadoff wrote:
batmagadanleadoff wrote:
The Mets phenomenal record in one and two run games this season coupled with Bill James' Pythagorean theorem, suggests that the Mets are a very lucky last place team.

Did Megdal copy my post again -- 11 minutes ago?

By the way, you ever invite Howard to post here?

John Cougar Lunchbucket
May 01 2012 02:08 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

To the point I think Ceetar's trying to make the numbers would suggest the Mets aren't too many adjustments away from showing a better offense. For example, you'd think if OBP stayed where it was all year we'd move up in that runs scored category if only by by accident eventually and that of course would improve the pythagorean figures.

The HRs allowed, really the pitching in general, is the bigger concern in most every way. I have less expectation of it continuing to be as good as its been and it hasn't been great.

batmagadanleadoff
May 01 2012 02:28 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Ceetar wrote:
batmagadanleadoff wrote:
Edgy DC wrote:
Well, there's the sample size thing. It's early.

Yeah. And that's why I wasn't predicting the rest of the season.

calling them lucky, and a last place team, is predicting.

Uh, no. I was suggesting that they were lucky in April and that they should be in last place. But you'll be happy to know that I'm enjoying the hell out of this year's team, flaws and all and Pythagorean Theorem, and remain as hopeful and optimistic as even a nine year old baseball fan oughtta be.

metsmarathon
May 01 2012 03:06 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

for what it's worth, baseball prospectus has our third-order winning percentage at 0.541 (12.4/10.6 W/L)

that appears to take into account underlying statistics and what-nots, but also quality of opponent, whatever that means.

as a comparison, the nats sit at 0.596, the braves at 0.511, the phillies at 0.477, and the marlins all the way down there at 0.384

poor marlins.

batmagadanleadoff
May 03 2012 09:33 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

If the playoffs started today, the Schwinden Mets would still be mathematically alive, three game losing streak to the Astros and all.

Mets � Willets Point
May 03 2012 10:01 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

batmagadanleadoff wrote:
If the playoffs started today, the Schwinden Mets would still be mathematically alive, three game losing streak to the Astros and all.

So the Mets would have to play Arizona for a Second Wild Card tiebreaker and then play Atlanta in the one-game Wild Card Playoff. Seeing that it's entirely possible for this scenario to play out at the end of the season makes the poorly-conceived-let's-let-even-more-teams-into-the-playoffs-Bud-Selig-cash-bonanza-second-wild-card-team plan even stupider.

batmagadanleadoff
May 03 2012 11:18 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

batmagadanleadoff wrote:
If the playoffs started today, the Schwinden Mets would still be mathematically alive, three game losing streak to the Astros and all.

OE - If the playoffs started today, the Schwinden Mets would still be mathematically alive, three game losing streak to the Astros and worst run differential in the National League, better only than the 6-18 Twins.

G-Fafif
May 04 2012 06:48 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Schwinden Mets visiting Atlanta to open premature, hypothetical postseason today.

G-Fafif
May 06 2012 04:54 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Rottino Mets still loom as the one-game visitors for the season that is exactly one-sixth complete.

G-Fafif
May 06 2012 02:31 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Batista Mets guarantee they'll travel to Philly with a one-game date Atlanta awaiting them in early October.

batmagadanleadoff
May 08 2012 08:47 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

ESPN's playoff odds gives the Mets a 15.8% of qualifying -- the Mets best odds so far, this season. Though I'm not sure whether those are odds for the Mets being one of the final four teams or final five teams in the league. (I'm guessing last five).

G-Fafif
May 08 2012 08:50 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Whatever the odds, the Valdespin Mets have clinched a spot after the 30-game season is complete.

Frayed Knot
May 08 2012 08:51 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

batmagadanleadoff wrote:
ESPN's playoff odds gives the Mets a 15.8% of qualifying -- the Mets best odds so far, this season. Though I'm not sure whether those are odds for the Mets being one of the final four teams or final five teams in the league.

Add up the odds for ALL the teams (in one league).
If those odds add up to 500% then it's for five teams. If they only total 400% then they never got around to updating things to the new format.

batmagadanleadoff
May 08 2012 08:55 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Frayed Knot wrote:
batmagadanleadoff wrote:
ESPN's playoff odds gives the Mets a 15.8% of qualifying -- the Mets best odds so far, this season. Though I'm not sure whether those are odds for the Mets being one of the final four teams or final five teams in the league.

Add up the odds for ALL the teams (in one league).
If those odds add up to 500% then it's for five teams. If they only total 400% then they never got around to updating things to the new format.

The odds for all NL teams, cumulatively, equals exactly 500%. Good idea.

batmagadanleadoff
May 08 2012 09:57 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

G-Fafif wrote:
Whatever the odds, the Valdespin Mets have clinched a spot after the 30-game season is complete.

With the Reds loss tonight, the Mets are guaranteed a playoff spot even after the end of the 31 game season. (Mets playoffs odds now 16.1% - a .3% increase in just the last hour).

Benjamin Grimm
May 09 2012 07:16 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

I know that this is completely arbitrary, but I remember thinking last month that I'd allow myself to start getting excited about the Mets playoff chances this year if they had a .550 or better winning percentage on May 15.

I just did the math. Assuming no rainouts in the next week or so, to clinch .550 by May 15 the Mets will have to win three of their next six games.

Sounds pretty doable to me.

G-Fafif
May 09 2012 10:47 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The Starting Shortstop Justin Turner Mets indeed solidified their 31-game second Wild Card while moving to within a half-game of Washington and Atlanta for a share of first place/first Wild Card.

Man, the flight to Miami must have been caliente.

Frayed Knot
May 10 2012 06:19 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Houston tied Wednesday night's game w/the Marlins in the 9th and had a chance to win it before finally losing it anyway in the 11th, thus wrecking our chance for a rare '+5' day (we win, the rest of the east loses).
Still, a couple of +3's in a row, particularly at this time of year, moves you up in a hurry and is currently good enough for 1/2 game behind both Washington & Atlanta.

Nats at Pittsburgh is the only NL game to be played today.

Edgy MD
May 10 2012 07:42 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Big bloody weekend happening.

East W L PCT GB NGB L10 Streak Home Away
Washington 18 12 .600 -- -- 4-6 L3 12-4 6-8
=#000080]Atlanta 19 13 .594 -- -- 5-5 L1 8-5 11-8
=#0000FF]NY Mets 18 13 .581 0.5 1.0 6-4 W5 10-6 8-7
=#FF4000]Miami 16 15 .516 2.5 7.0 8-2 W1 6-5 10-10
=#BF0000]Philadelphia 14 18 .438 5.0 17.0 6-4 L3 5-8 9-10

Wow, look what they did to Philadelphia.

Benjamin Grimm
May 10 2012 07:46 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Yeah, if the Mets can fend off the Marlins this weekend it would be pretty big. A sweep would be fantastic, but I'd be quite happy with two out of three.

TransMonk
May 10 2012 07:47 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Mets 13-5 against the NL East.

Benjamin Grimm
May 10 2012 07:52 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

TransMonk
May 10 2012 07:56 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Stupid Houston...

Frayed Knot
May 10 2012 08:03 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Divisions as a whole to date:

[table:3lyyhqba][tr:3lyyhqba][td:3lyyhqba]AL EAST[/td:3lyyhqba][td:3lyyhqba]+ 16[/td:3lyyhqba][td:3lyyhqba]NL EAST[/td:3lyyhqba][td:3lyyhqba]+ 14[/td:3lyyhqba][/tr:3lyyhqba][tr:3lyyhqba][td:3lyyhqba]AL CENT[/td:3lyyhqba][td:3lyyhqba]- 20[/td:3lyyhqba][td:3lyyhqba]NL CENT[/td:3lyyhqba][td:3lyyhqba]- 4[/td:3lyyhqba][/tr:3lyyhqba][tr:3lyyhqba][td:3lyyhqba]AL WEST[/td:3lyyhqba][td:3lyyhqba]+ 4[/td:3lyyhqba][td:3lyyhqba]NL WEST[/td:3lyyhqba][td:3lyyhqba]- 10[/td:3lyyhqba][/tr:3lyyhqba][/table:3lyyhqba]

A Boy Named Seo
May 10 2012 09:11 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Run Diff:

WASH +11
ATL +24
NYM =#FF0000]-18
MIA +1
PHI =#FF0000]-9

They still give up too many runs, but it seems that when they lose, they're just really getting their asses kicked by alot. Of the 13 losses, 9 of those have been by 4 runs or more (we got beat two times each by margins of 4, 5, 6, and 8 freaking runs, and have one 7-run ass kicking, too).

In games decided by 3 runs or less, though, the Mets are good.

Record in 1-run games: 7-3
Record in 2-run games: 4-0
Record in 3-run games: 3-1

That's what good baseball teams do, right? Right??

Edgy MD
May 10 2012 09:31 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Seoie giving us his first post in a week.

Edgy MD
May 10 2012 10:03 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Hey, check it out. My Net Games Back has been adopted by baseball-reference as GBsum.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagu ... ings.shtml

G-Fafif
May 12 2012 12:03 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Sole possession of the second Wild Card spot on the line for the Closer Frank Francisco Mets today.

G-Fafif
May 12 2012 03:26 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The battle-hardened veteran pinch-hitter Mike Baxter Mets maintain their playoff status through the 33-game season.

G-Fafif
May 13 2012 03:46 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The walked-off Mets nevertheless slink out of Miami with the second Wild Card at the end of the 34-game National League season.

G-Fafif
May 14 2012 08:15 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The suicide-squeezing Mets maintain their grip on Wild Card No. 2 through the 35-game season.

G-Fafif
May 15 2012 09:10 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Star-hiding Mets hold tight to the 36-game season's second Wild Card, though as Batmags noted in IGT the Reds are coming in for a showdown -- plus the Marlins and Giants are closing in...and it isn't really a 36-game season.

We just lost 8-0, Terry had a strange postgame presser and it's the middle of May, yet somehow I find myself thinking, "I wouldn't bet against us in a one-game playoff."

Ceetar
May 15 2012 09:23 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

G-Fafif wrote:

We just lost 8-0, Terry had a strange postgame presser and it's the middle of May, yet somehow I find myself thinking, "I wouldn't bet against us in a one-game playoff."

If there is one thing I've learned, it's NEVER bet against Santana.

G-Fafif
May 17 2012 04:37 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Carrasco-free Mets have been tied by the Jose-ful Marlins for the second WC spot, with the Todd Frazier Reds still lurking at Citi Field, a half-game behind. The 37-game season has been a relative success. Let us see where the 38-game season takes us.

G-Fafif
May 17 2012 06:19 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Rob Johnson and the rally-igniting Mets guarantee they'll have to declare their at least partial share of a 38-game Wild Card as they go through customs.

G-Fafif
May 18 2012 08:25 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Eighth-inning specialist Rob Johnson's Mets tied for the 39-game second Wild Card with Miami Marlins, who defeated Cleveland tonight, fooling their 1997 World Series foils who were obviously expecting to see the Florida Marlins.

batmagadanleadoff
May 19 2012 05:54 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Some clusterfuck there'd be if the season ended today.

NL Wild Card Race (First place teams excluded):

There's a four-way tie for the road wild card spot. The Phillies game is still in progress. Therefore, the Phillies could break the tie with a win. But a Phillies loss would ensure a three way tie for the last spot. I haven't bothered to look up just how the three way tie would be broken, but I can't imagine a straight round-robin to determine the Nats opponent because that round robin could go on indefinitely if the three teams continue to go 1-1 in each round robin round. As is, I'm guessing that at least four days would be needed to break this tie no matter what the method. I shoulda looked this up because I woulda probably found the answer in less time than it's taking me to write this post.

batmagadanleadoff
May 19 2012 06:06 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Some clusterfuck there'd be if the season ended today.

NL Wild Card Race (First place teams excluded):

There's a four-way tie for the road wild card spot. The Phillies game is still in progress. Therefore, the Phillies could break the tie with a win. But a Phillies loss would ensure a three way tie for the last spot. I haven't bothered to look up just how the three way tie would be broken, but I can't imagine a straight round-robin to determine the Nats opponent because that round robin could go on indefinitely if the three teams continue to go 1-1 in each round robin round. As is, I'm guessing that at least four days would be needed to break this tie no matter what the method. I shoulda looked this up because I woulda probably found the answer in less time than it's taking me to write this post.

One round-robin round. That's it. Seeding of teams in a three way tie to be resolved by combination of head to head in=season record and luck (random drawing) to determine which of three teams has first game bye in two game playoff to break three-way tie.

Ties between three teams
Three-way tie for the division or wildcard

If the three teams have identical records against each other in the regular season, the office of the commissioner conducts a draw with the teams designated as teams A, B, and C. First, team A plays team B with team A as the home team. The following day, the winner of the that game plays team C with team C as the away team. The winner of the game on the second day advances to the playoffs. The team designations are determined as follows:

If the teams do not have identical records against one another, and one team has a best record against both other teams, and another team has a winning record against the final team, the first team shall get the first pick of their team designation, the second team gets the second pick, and the last team is assigned the remaining designation.

If one team has a better record against both of the other teams, and the two other teams have the same record against each other, then the first team would get the first pick for team designation, and the other teams would draw lots. The winner of the draw would get the second pick, and the loser of the draw would be assigned the remaining designation.

If two teams have the same record against each other, and both have a better record than the last team, then the first two teams draw lots, with the winner choosing their designation first, the loser of the draw picking their designation second and the final team being assigned the remaining designation.

If each team has a winning record against one other team in the three team group, and a losing record against the other team in the three team group, the priority for choosing designations shall be chosen based on overall winning percentage within the three team group, any ties in winning percentage within the three team group will be broken by drawing lots.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_Leag ... procedures

Number of days needed to determine WC where there's a three way tie for road WC slot: at least three, assuming no rain-outs and no off days in between the three games required.

Benjamin Grimm
May 19 2012 07:03 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

I'd love to see this happen. How about a seven-way tie for that last spot? The more screwed up, the better.

G-Fafif
May 20 2012 06:50 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

With the Phillies losing to Boston, the Hefnerian Mets maintain their place in a three-way tie for the last Wild Card spot, with Miami and San Francisco, in the 40-game season. Take a tiny little felt pennant out of petty cash, fellas.

G-Fafif
May 20 2012 03:41 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The Giants-A's game will determine whether there's a two- or three-team tie for the final Wild Card spot in the National League, but rest assured that the Baxter Mike and the Mysterians are one of the teams involved at the completion of the 41-game season.

G-Fafif
May 21 2012 11:18 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The Ike Davis Mets have fallen one game out of the second Wild Card, currently held by the Miami Mercenaries; tied for third in the mythical race with San Francisco, each team a half-game behind Cincinnati, whose two wins over the MFYs were worth it anyway.

G-Fafif
May 22 2012 09:35 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The Race for the Selig Card, 5/22

Miami --
Cincy 0.5
METS 1.0
Giants 1.0

G-Fafif
May 23 2012 08:06 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The Race for the Selig Card, 5/23

Cincy --
METS 0.5
Miami 0.5
Giants 1.5

G-Fafif
May 25 2012 05:29 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The Race for the Selig Card, 5/24

St. Loo --
METS 1
Miami 1
Giants 1

G-Fafif
May 25 2012 09:37 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The Race for the Selig Card, 5/25

METS --
Miami --
St. Loo --
Giants 1
Phila. 1.5

Mets � Willets Point
May 26 2012 07:28 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Five games over .500 during Memorial Day Weekend and they haven't been below .500 at any time during this season. No one predicted that.

Edgy MD
May 26 2012 08:28 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Well, not explictly, but a few of us predicted a decidedly winning season.

G-Fafif
May 27 2012 05:05 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The Bannerific Mets currently eschew the Selig Card and hold the traditional Wild Card. Pending tonight's ATL-WAS game, the lead will be a half-game or one game going into Decoration Day.

So that's good.

batmagadanleadoff
May 27 2012 05:20 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

G-Fafif wrote:
The Bannerific Mets currently eschew the Selig Card and hold the traditional Wild Card. Pending tonight's ATL-WAS game, the lead will be a half-game or one game going into Decoration Day.

So that's good.

I don't know about this one. If the season ended today, the Mets would first have to beat the Selig Wild Card team before claiming the traditional Wild Card slot. Still, ESPN now gives the Mets a 21.1% chance of making the playoffs; their best odds this season, to date. Bannerific, indeed!

G-Fafif
May 27 2012 05:46 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Oh yeah, that's right, that one-game playoff.

Well let's go win the division!

(Giddy from the sun or something...and the 27-21 record.)

G-Fafif
May 27 2012 09:36 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Wild Things, 5/27

1st WC: METS (1 GA)
---
2nd WC:
Miami --
St. Loo --
Braves 0.5
Giants 1.0
Phila 1.5
Pirates 2.5

Mets trail Nats by 2.5 in the East.

Mets � Willets Point
May 27 2012 10:52 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The Mets are six games above .500 for the first time this season.

Frayed Knot
May 28 2012 05:49 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Mets � Willets Point wrote:
The Mets are six games above .500 for the first time this season.

First time since July 2010

Benjamin Grimm
May 28 2012 07:25 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Frayed Knot wrote:
First time since July 2010

And that's a bit of a buzzkill, since that season ended with 83 losses.

Frayed Knot
May 28 2012 07:34 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Benjamin Grimm wrote:
Frayed Knot wrote:
First time since July 2010

And that's a bit of a buzzkill, since that season ended with 83 losses.

Yup.
Were six games above .500 as late as July 18th - after being as many as 11-over at several points in June.
After 7/18 they went 30-40 over the final 70 that year.

Mets � Willets Point
May 28 2012 08:51 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Frayed Knot wrote:
Frayed Knot wrote:
First time since July 2010

And that's a bit of a buzzkill, since that season ended with 83 losses.

Yup.
Were six games above .500 as late as July 18th - after being as many as 11-over at several points in June.
After 7/18 they went 30-40 over the final 70 that year.

Of course, a majority of us predicted that the Mets would win fewer games than they did in 2010, so again this defies expectations.

Edgy MD
May 28 2012 11:59 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Yeah, 79 wins is still comfortably above prediction levels for most posters.

G-Fafif
May 28 2012 08:22 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

It's the NBA of yore on May 28, 2012, as we're in a three to make two situation: Mets, Marlins and Cardinals are tied for the Wild Card spots. Giants a half-game back, Braves and Phillies 1.5 behind. We trail Washington by 2.5 for first place.

G-Fafif
May 29 2012 10:16 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The Hefnanillas and the Marlins in a WC tie through May 29. Home field to be decided by success of 8 and 9 hitters on May 29.

Edgy MD
May 29 2012 10:27 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

I imagine some time in the next few weeks, we'll see a five-way tie in the NL East.

Pythagoras-inclined Baseball Prospectus still real pessimistic about our post-season chances.

G-Fafif
May 31 2012 04:32 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Despite what scientists are calling the Schwinden Effect, your New York Metropolitans will enter June holding the second Wild Card spot, one game behind the Miami Marlins, one half-game ahead of the Atlanta Braves, with the Cardinals, Giants and Phillies bunched up directly behind. Mets trail Washington by 1.5 for first in the N.L. East.

G-Fafif
Jun 02 2012 12:01 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Us and Marlins tied for the two WC spots, one game behind rained-out Nats.

And we have a no-hitter.

G-Fafif
Jun 02 2012 11:25 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Mets and Marlins remain tied for both WC spots, one up on throwback-dressing Giants; one behind Nats for first in East.

One-third mark is reached after Sunday night's game. And we're still sort of seriously talking about this, kinda, huh?

G-Fafif
Jun 04 2012 02:04 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Mets held a GB/GA share of first place in the N.L. East entering Monday's action. And they might hold one again, even a full share, before this thing is over.

But at the moment, they're the second Wild Card...not bad if not optimal for what could have been.

G-Fafif
Jun 06 2012 06:41 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Tied for second WC with SF. Could have been so much more.

And could still be again.

Nymr83
Jun 06 2012 10:29 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Buster Olney says that 25 or so teams are close enough that they aren't ready to be sellers yet, so who are the 5 potential sellers?

I'm seeing the Cubs, A's, Mariners, Twins, and Padres as the best possibilities.

Any Metly interest in their guys?

Ceetar
Jun 06 2012 11:51 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Nymr83 wrote:
Buster Olney says that 25 or so teams are close enough that they aren't ready to be sellers yet, so who are the 5 potential sellers?

I'm seeing the Cubs, A's, Mariners, Twins, and Padres as the best possibilities.

Any Metly interest in their guys?

Garza?

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 06 2012 12:00 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

I'm more curious, I think, about who they would trade rather than who they would get.

I don't think the Mets are inclined to deal their top prospects (nor should they be) and beyond that, who can they trade? Maybe they have a few guys who are not quite blue chip, but who would have some trade value. (Nieuwenhuis? Gee?) But I don't see that players of that caliber can be traded for a real difference maker.

Ceetar
Jun 06 2012 12:02 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Benjamin Grimm wrote:
I'm more curious, I think, about who they would trade rather than who they would get.

I don't think the Mets are inclined to deal their top prospects (nor should they be) and beyond that, who can they trade? Maybe they have a few guys who are not quite blue chip, but who would have some trade value. (Nieuwenhuis? Gee?) But I don't see that players of that caliber can be traded for a real difference maker.

would resolve some 40man issues though. I thought they'd pull of some prospects for help moves this offseason for that reason.

But I don't think they'll necessarily be moving guys that are helping.

G-Fafif
Jun 07 2012 04:28 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

First place was oh so close. As for the Wild Cards the morning of June 7...

SFG --
---
MIA -- (1/2 GB SF)
ATL -- (1/2 GB SF)
--
NYM 1/2 GB MIA/ATL

metirish
Jun 07 2012 07:42 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

4th place , but only 2.5 out, if things fall a certain way today we could end up in 2nd place.......stay strong....I was initially worried that Dickey was not going to pitch in the Bronx but now I'm glad he's going today.

Frayed Knot
Jun 07 2012 07:30 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

- Pulled back a game on Washington today
- also stuck one more between us and Philly as they lost their four-straight to the Dodgers this week
- and we will leap-frog past tonight's loser between Miami & Atlanta (Braves lead 3-1 in the 8th) while staying within a half-game of the winner

In all, not a bad day.

G-Fafif
Jun 08 2012 05:40 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

NL EAST, THROUGH GAMES OF 6/7

WSH --
ATL 1
NYM 1.5
MIA 2

NL WCs, THROUGH GAMES OF 6/7

SFG -- (0.5 GA ATL)
---
ATL --
NYM 0.5
MIA 1
PIT 2.5
STL 2.5

Notice who doesn't rate a mention at all at this time, but if they did, they'd be tied with Arizona for sixth place in the race for the second Wild Card, 5 GB of Atlanta...and last in the N.L. East, 6 GB of Washington.

duan
Jun 08 2012 06:54 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Ceetar wrote:
Benjamin Grimm wrote:
I'm more curious, I think, about who they would trade rather than who they would get.

I don't think the Mets are inclined to deal their top prospects (nor should they be) and beyond that, who can they trade? Maybe they have a few guys who are not quite blue chip, but who would have some trade value. (Nieuwenhuis? Gee?) But I don't see that players of that caliber can be traded for a real difference maker.

would resolve some 40man issues though. I thought they'd pull of some prospects for help moves this offseason for that reason.

But I don't think they'll necessarily be moving guys that are helping.

We'll know more come July, but the dynamic that creating an extra wild card has probably generated is that it keeps more teams in the race, more teams in the race means that prices for pieces are higher and so on.

Who're the likely guys that could move due to a combination of redundancy in our org but upside sufficient to generate interest? Valedespin/Newey & Murphy seem like the most likely to be flipped to me. I don't think they're swapping out any of the young pitchers any time soon.

G-Fafif
Jun 09 2012 09:46 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

2.5 GB of WSH for NLE; 1 GB of SFG for NL WC-2.

Edgy MD
Jun 09 2012 11:46 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Gotta beat those damn Yankees.

TransMonk
Jun 10 2012 05:41 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

All the vampires walkin' through the valley
Move west down Ventura Blvd.
And all the bad boys are standing in the shadows
All the good girls are home with broken hearts

And I'm free...

G-Fafif
Jun 10 2012 09:26 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

A couple games out of WC-2, somehow. Will seem more meaningful, Junewise, when some wins are strung together.

G-Fafif
Jun 10 2012 09:44 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Pirates pull into first-place tie with Reds.

G-Fafif
Jun 13 2012 06:47 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Despite 1-6 week last week (with each loss to MFYs feeling like three apiece), we are tied with Pittsburgh one behind Atlanta for second WC. All it takes is a hot streak (or a cold streak -- five behind Nats for first in the division) to shake things up.

MFYs in first, with best record in AL. Funny how quickly that happened.

G-Fafif
Jun 14 2012 03:02 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

We'll end Flag Day in competition for the flag as the second Wild Card.

G-Fafif
Jun 16 2012 12:05 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Half-game behind the Braves for 2nd WC.

G-Fafif
Jun 17 2012 08:52 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

G-Fafif wrote:
Half-game behind the Braves for 2nd WC.

Same.

G-Fafif
Jun 17 2012 03:05 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

G-Fafif wrote:
G-Fafif wrote:
Half-game behind the Braves for 2nd WC.

Same.

Mostly same, except we're a percentage point behind the Pirates in a virtual tie for a half-game out.

Our division sucks this weekend.

Frayed Knot
Jun 18 2012 07:45 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Only the Braves playing tonight in the NL East and they're in the process of losing in the Bronx.
So we'll gain a half-game on everyone and once again leap-frog the Braves from 1/2 game back to 1/2 ahead.

I'd sprain my brain if I had to figure out the WC possibilities. I'll start paying closer attention to that stuff after the AS break.

G-Fafif
Jun 19 2012 04:38 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

2nd in NL East, 4 GB WSH.

1st for 2nd NL WC, 1/2 GA ATL.

And a big four games over .500.

Ceetar
Jun 19 2012 08:30 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

3 out of first, half game up on the Braves for second wild card. (1.5 behind the Giants/first WC)

G-Fafif
Jun 21 2012 05:50 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

NL EAST
WSH --
NYM 3.0
ATL 3.5

NL WCs
NYM --
SFG --
ATL 0.5
PIT 1.5
STL 2.5
ARI 3.5
MIA 4.0
PHI 5.0
MIL 5.5

Edgy MD
Jun 21 2012 06:49 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Four up on the Marlins and five up on the Phils is cool.

Interesting to see what could happen if the division spreads out a little.

G-Fafif
Jun 21 2012 10:16 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

NL EAST
WSH --
NYM 3.5
ATL 4.0

NL WCs
NYM --
SFG --
ATL 0.5
PIT 1.0
STL 3.0
ARI 3.5
MIA 4.5
PHI 5.5
MIL 5.5

G-Fafif
Jun 23 2012 05:25 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

NL EAST
WSH --
NYM 2.5
ATL 3.0

NL WCs
NYM --
SFG --
ATL 0.5
PIT 1.0
STL 3.0
ARI 3.5
MIL 5.5
MIA 5.5
PHI 6.0

G-Fafif
Jun 24 2012 12:36 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jun 24 2012 12:14 PM

NL EAST
WSH --
NYM 3.5
ATL 4.0

NL WCs
SFG -- (1 GA PIT/NYM)
PIT --
NYM --
ATL 0.5
STL 3.0
ARI 3.5
PHI 6.0
MIL 6.5
MIA 6.5

Edgy MD
Jun 24 2012 11:37 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Five teams within a game for the wild card at this point in the season is a little, I don't know. It's something of a concern. The further back in the pack you go for your playoff teams, the less distinct from each other they grow.

G-Fafif
Jun 24 2012 12:15 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Four teams: I mistakenly had PIT listed twice. But yeah.

Ceetar
Jun 24 2012 12:23 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Edgy DC wrote:
Five teams within a game for the wild card at this point in the season is a little, I don't know. It's something of a concern. The further back in the pack you go for your playoff teams, the less distinct from each other they grow.

well..it's not even the halfway point.

Edgy MD
Jun 24 2012 08:52 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Do you really think it's necessary to tell me that?

Ceetar
Jun 24 2012 09:59 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Edgy DC wrote:
Do you really think it's necessary to tell me that?

if you're going to assert that it's a concern. yeah. The reason there's 90 or so more games to go is so that the teams can discern themselves from each other.

and Interleague and the ability for teams near each other to win and lose together plays in too. Now that we get back to them playing each other, probably more opportunity for discernment.

G-Fafif
Jun 25 2012 05:20 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jun 26 2012 07:05 AM

That part of the schedule where we can suck but not lose ground appears to be over. But we sucked and didn't lose ground.

NL EAST
WSH --
NYM 3.5
ATL 4.0

NL WCs
SFG -- (1 GA PIT/NYM)
PIT --
NYM --
ATL 0.5
STL 1.0
ARI 2.5
MIA 5.5
PHI 6.5
MIL 6.5

Edgy MD
Jun 25 2012 06:44 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Ceetar wrote:
Edgy DC wrote:
Do you really think it's necessary to tell me that?

if you're going to assert that it's a concern. yeah.

Well, you really really really didn't.

G-Fafif
Jun 26 2012 07:05 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

NL EAST
WSH --
ATL 3.5 (.001 ahead of NYM)
NYM 3.5

NL WCs
SFG -- (2 GA PIT/ATL/NYM/STL)
---
PIT --
ATL --
NYM -- (.001 behind PIT/ATL)
STL --
ARI 1.0
PHI 4.5
MIA 4.5
MIL 5.5

batmagadanleadoff
Jun 26 2012 10:49 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

TheNL Wild Card Race:

G-Fafif
Jun 27 2012 05:44 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

NYM, with PIT, 1 behind ATL and STL for last WC spot, 4.5 out of first in East.

SFG, with first WC in hand, suddenly 1 behind LAD for West lead.

CIN lead over STL is 2.

Ceetar
Jun 27 2012 06:45 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

G-Fafif wrote:
SFG, with first WC in hand, suddenly 1 behind LAD for West lead.

This means the Mets have the chance to take matters into their own hands this weekend/tomorrow.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 27 2012 07:28 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Ceetar wrote:
G-Fafif wrote:
SFG, with first WC in hand, suddenly 1 behind LAD for West lead.

This means the Mets have the chance to take matters into their own hands this weekend/tomorrow.

Hahahahahaha!

Oh, wait, you're serious.

Ceetar
Jun 27 2012 07:48 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Of course I'm serious. Why wouldn't this team be able to beat LA?

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 27 2012 07:55 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Just a commentary on the recent results. Fielding bad, pitching pretty bad, not hitting home runs and encountering a good starting staff in a tough park on the Coast doesn't sound promising recipe for this team to "take things into their own hands." Let's see if we can maintain.

Ceetar
Jun 28 2012 06:50 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Mets remain 3 back of the Dodgers/Giants for that first spot, and one back of the Braves for the second. (tied with Braves)

Would need to sweep the Dodgers to swipe that one.

G-Fafif
Jun 29 2012 06:28 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

NL East
WSH --
ATL 3.5 (.533)
NYM 3.5 (.532)

NL Wild Card
LAD -- (2.5 GA)
***
ATL -- (.533)
PIT -- (.533)
NYM -- (.532)
STL 0.5
ARI 2.0

G-Fafif
Jun 30 2012 09:04 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

N.L. East

WSH --
NYM 3.5
ATL 4.5

N.L. Wild Card

LAD -- (1 GA PIT/NYM}
***
PIT -- (.539)
NYM -- (.538)
ATL 1.0
STL 1.5
ARI 2.0

G-Fafif
Jul 02 2012 10:59 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

N.L. East

WSH --
NYM 3.5
ATL 4.5

N.L. Wild Card

LAD -- (1 GA PIT/NYM)
***
PIT -- (.53846)
NYM -- (.53750)
ATL 1.0
STL 1.5
ARI 3.0
MIA 4.0
MIL 6.0

G-Fafif
Jul 03 2012 05:45 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

N.L. East

WSH --
NYM 3.5
ATL 5.0

N.L. Wild Card

PIT -- (.544)
LAD -- (.543)
***
NYM 0.5
STL 1.5
ATL 2.0
ARI 4.0
MIA 5.0
MIL 6.0

SFG leads LAD by 1.5 in NL West
CIN leads PIT by 1.0 in NL Central

G-Fafif
Jul 04 2012 07:05 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

You know what they say about the Fourth of July: The team in first place wins the pennant -- except I don't think they actually say that anymore.

N.L. East

WSH --
NYM 3.5
ATL 5.0

N.L. Wild Card

PIT/CIN -- (.550)
LAD -- (.549)
***
NYM 0.5
ATL 2.0
STL 2.5
ARI 5.0
MIL 5.0
MIA 6.0

SFG leads LAD by 0.5 in NL West
PIT AND CIN tied in NL Central

Ceetar
Jul 04 2012 07:42 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

i'm only halfway annoyed that these teams we're chasing are coordinating winning streaks with us. (to be fair, they seem to coordinate the losing streaks too). Keeps seeming like the mets play well, but only gain like 1 game.

Edgy MD
Jul 04 2012 09:09 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Baseball Prosectus is only giving Pittsburgh an 8.7 % chance of winning the division they're currently sitting on top of. Texas, on the other hand, is given a 100.0% (after rounding, I guess) chance of a post-season life.

NL East
Team W L % GB Net GB M#/E# BP % Champs
Washington 46 32 .590 --- --- 80 55.1%
New York 44 37 .543 3.5 3.5 80 18.1%
Atlanta 42 38 .525 5.0 6.5 79 24.8%
Miami 38 42 .475 9.0 18.5 75 1.2%
Philadelphia 36 46 .439 12.0 30.5 71 0.8%

NL Wildcard
Team W L % GB Net GB M#/E# BP % WC
Washington 46 32 .590 Div. Lead. --- 25.6%
San Francisco 45 36 .556 Div. Lead. --- 11.0%
Pittsburgh 44 36 .550 Div. Lead. --- 21.7%
Cincinnati 44 36 .550 --- --- 81 17.7%
Los Angeles 45 37 .549 --- --- 81 23.6%
New York 44 37 .543 0.5 0.5 81 24.8%
Atlanta 42 38 .525 2.0 3.5 80 24.8%
St. Louis 42 39 .519 2.5 5.0 79 24.4%
Arizona 39 41 .488 5.0 15.0 77 8.3%
Milwaukee 38 42 .475 6.0 20.0 76 7.1%
Miami 38 42 .475 6.0 20.0 76 3.9%
Philadelphia 36 46 .439 9.0 41.0 72 1.2%
Houston 32 49 .395 12.5 69.0 69 0.0%
Colorado 31 49 .388 13.0 73.5 69 0.0%
San Diego 32 50 .390 13.0 73.5 68 0.0%
Chicago 30 50 .375 14.0 84.5 68 0.0%

G-Fafif
Jul 04 2012 11:29 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 05 2012 11:14 PM

N.L. East

WSH --
NYM 4.5
ATL 6.0

N.L. Wild Card

SFG -- (1/2 GA CIN)
CIN --
***
NYM 0.5
STL 1.0
ATL 2.0
ARI 5.0
MIA 5.0
MIL 6.0

LAD leads SFG by 0.5 in NL West
PIT leads CIN by 1.0 in NL Central

Mets � Willets Point
Jul 05 2012 12:02 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The Nationals are starting to pull ahead of the pack.

Also, does being in first place on the Fourth of July mean anything?

Frayed Knot
Jul 05 2012 06:47 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Mets � Willets Point wrote:
does being in first place on the Fourth of July mean anything?

Yes, except for the times when it doesn't.

Hard to remember now that the 2005 Nats were rolling at 50-32 coming out of July 4th (compared to 47-32 now).
They finished 81-81 that season.

Ceetar
Jul 05 2012 06:56 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Mets � Willets Point wrote:
The Nationals are starting to pull ahead of the pack.

Also, does being in first place on the Fourth of July mean anything?

Gary mentioned yesterday that only one team has been as far out as the Phillies are on July 4th and won the division.

(you should be able to guess the team)

Mets � Willets Point
Jul 05 2012 07:58 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Frayed Knot wrote:
Mets � Willets Point wrote:
does being in first place on the Fourth of July mean anything?

Yes, except for the times when it doesn't.

Hard to remember now that the 2005 Nats were rolling at 50-32 coming out of July 4th (compared to 47-32 now).
They finished 81-81 that season.

Yes, that's mentioned in the linked article.

G-Fafif
Jul 05 2012 11:14 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

N.L. East

WSH --
NYM 4.5
ATL 6.0

N.L. Wild Card

NYM --
SFG --
***
CIN 0.5
STL 1.0
ATL 1.5
MIA 4.5
ARI 5.5
MIL 6.5

LAD leads SFG by 1.5 in NL West
PIT leads CIN by 2.0 in NL Central

G-Fafif
Jul 07 2012 02:08 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

N.L. East

WSH --
NYM 4.5
ATL 5.0

N.L. Wild Card

SFG -- (0.5 GA CIN)
CIN --
***
NYM 0.5
ATL 1.0
STL 1.5
MIA 4.0
ARI 5.0
MIL 6.0

LAD leads SFG by 0.5 in NL West
PIT leads CIN by 1.0 in NL Central

G-Fafif
Jul 07 2012 11:19 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

N.L. East

WSH --
NYM 4.5
ATL 5.0

N.L. Wild Card

CIN -- (0.5 GA NYM/SFG)
NYM/SFG --
***
ATL 0.5
STL 1.0
MIA 4.5
ARI 4.5
MIL 6.5

LAD leads SFG by 0.5 in NL West
PIT leads CIN by 1.0 in NL Central[

Ceetar
Jul 08 2012 07:12 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Big game today guys, I want all these All-Star Break stories and playoff break downs to have the NYM on them.

bmfc1
Jul 08 2012 07:52 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Ceetar wrote:
Big game today guys, I want all these All-Star Break stories and playoff break downs to have the NYM on them.

Agreed. I don't want to have the last game until Friday be a loss.

G-Fafif
Jul 08 2012 06:39 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

At the slightly more than halfway mark...

N.L. East

WSH --
ATL 4.0
NYM 4.5

N.L. Wild Card

CIN -- (1 GA ATL)
ATL --
***
NYM 0.5
STL 0.5
SFG 0.5
ARI 4.0
MIA 5.0
MIL 6.0

LAD leads SFG by 0.5, ARI by 4.0 in NL West
PIT leads CIN by 1.0, STL by 2.5 in NL Central

All in all, 11 of the 16 teams in the National League have a conceivable shot at one of the playoff spots. Philadelphia is not one of them.

G-Fafif
Jul 14 2012 06:27 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

N.L. East

WSH --
ATL 4.0
NYM 5.5

N.L. Wild Card

PIT/CIN -- (1 GA ATL)
ATL --
***
SFG 0.5
NYM 1.5
STL 1.5
ARI 5.0
MIL 6.0
MIA 6.0

LAD leads SFG by 0.5, ARI by 5.0 in NL West
PIT and CIN tied, lead STL by 2.5 in NL Central

G-Fafif
Jul 15 2012 11:09 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Win a game, then maybe we can track.

Edgy MD
Jul 31 2012 06:50 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Twelve out of first as the deadline comes. Eight and a half off the wild card.

Winners (ugly winners but winners) of three of the last five, which convinces almost nobody that the ship is righted. A lot of teams in between, too, leaving 'em 34 1/2 net games off the card.

Hoping that San Francisco has caught the Mets freefall disease.

Edgy MD
Aug 02 2012 03:29 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Philly's been beating up on the Nats and Miami took Atlanta down a peg last night.

We have a chance to pull within ten games tonight.

Edgy MD
Aug 05 2012 02:30 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

I think the playoff percentages haven't incorporated last night's games.

NL East
Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Winners
Washington 64 43 .598 --- --- --- 68.2%
Atlanta 61 46 .570 3.0 3.0 53 31.6%
New York 53 55 .491 11.5 20.0 44 0.2%
Miami 49 59 .454 15.5 32.0 40 0.0%
Philadelphia 48 59 .449 16.0 34.0 40 0.0%

Wild Card
Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs
Cincinnati 66 41 .617 12.5%
Washington 64 43 .598 25.1%
San Francisco 58 49 .542 7.4%
Atlanta 61 46 .570 --- --- --- 39.8%
Pttsburgh 60 46 .566 --- --- 54 46.8%
St. Louis 58 49 .542 2.5 2.5 53 56.0%
Los Angeles 58 50 .537 3.0 3.5 52 4.8%
Arizona 55 52 .514 5.5 11.0 51 4.5%
New York 53 55 .491 8.0 21.0 49 2.7%
Miami 49 59 .454 12.0 41.0 47 0.0%
Milwaukee 48 58 .453 12.0 41.0 47 0.3%
Philadelphia 48 59 .449 12.5 44.5 46 0.1%
San Diego 45 64 .413 16.5 76.5 45 0.0%
Chicago 43 62 .410 16.5 76.5 42 0.0%
Colorado 38 67 .362 21.5 126.5 39 0.0%
Houston 36 72 .333 25.0 165.0 32 0.0%

Edgy MD
Aug 29 2012 09:33 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Let's finish this tomorrow and stamp third place hard.

NL East
Team W L % GB Net GB M#/E#
Washington 78 51 .605 --- --- 28
Atlanta 74 57 .565 5.0 5.0 28
New York 61 69 .469 17.5 30.0 16
Philadelphia 61 69 .469 17.5 30.0 16
Miami 59 72 .450 20.0 40.0 13

NL Wildcard
Team W L % GB Net GB M#/E#
Cincinnati 80 52 .606 Div. Lead. ---
Washington 78 51 .605 Div. Lead. ---
San Francisco 72 57 .558 Div. Lead. ---
Atlanta 74 57 .565 --- --- 32
St. Louis 71 59 .546 --- --- 32
Pittsburgh 70 60 .538 1.0 1.0 32
Los Angeles 70 61 .534 1.5 2.0 31
Arizona 64 67 .489 7.5 20.0 25
Milwaukee 62 67 .481 8.5 24.0 25
New York 61 69 .469 10.0 31.5 23
Philadelphia 61 69 .469 10.0 31.5 23
San Diego 61 71 .462 11.0 38.5 21
Miami 59 72 .450 12.5 50.5 20
Colorado 53 76 .411 17.5 95.5 16
Chicago 49 80 .380 21.5 135.5 12
Houston 40 89 .310 30.5 234.5 3

Benjamin Grimm
Aug 30 2012 07:13 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

I'm not sure, but I seem to remember a rule change that would allow Atlanta to play Washington, or St. Louis to play Cincinnati, in the NLDS. Is that correct?

Ceetar
Aug 30 2012 07:16 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Benjamin Grimm wrote:
I'm not sure, but I seem to remember a rule change that would allow Atlanta to play Washington, or St. Louis to play Cincinnati, in the NLDS. Is that correct?

yup.

Frayed Knot
Aug 30 2012 07:17 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Correct, the winner of the WC one-game death-match will face the division winner with the best record regardless of what division each came from -- as opposed to the old system where the sole WC team could not face its division rival in the opening round.

Ceetar
Aug 30 2012 07:18 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Frayed Knot wrote:
Correct, the winner of the WC one-game death-match will face the division winner with the best record regardless of what division each came from -- as opposed to the old system where the sole WC team could not face its division rival in the opening round.

and this year only, at HOME if it's the AL.

Frayed Knot
Aug 30 2012 07:23 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Ceetar wrote:
Frayed Knot wrote:
Correct, the winner of the WC one-game death-match will face the division winner with the best record regardless of what division each came from -- as opposed to the old system where the sole WC team could not face its division rival in the opening round.

and this year only, at HOME if it's the AL.

Say what?

Ceetar
Aug 30 2012 07:37 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Frayed Knot wrote:
Frayed Knot wrote:
Correct, the winner of the WC one-game death-match will face the division winner with the best record regardless of what division each came from -- as opposed to the old system where the sole WC team could not face its division rival in the opening round.

and this year only, at HOME if it's the AL.

Say what?

AL Wild Card team opens the ALDS at home this yaer.

Frayed Knot
Aug 30 2012 07:40 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

OK, why?

Swan Swan H
Aug 30 2012 07:52 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Frayed Knot wrote:
OK, why?

It eliminates a travel day. The series will be played in a 2-3 format, rather than 2-2-1. This was all done to squeeze the wild-card games in after the regular season schedule was locked in.

As far as I can see, both leagues have the same format for the DS.

[url]http://mlb.si.com/2012/08/14/2012-playoff-schedule-major-league-baseball/ See also the link to Jayson Stark's piece in this article.

Ceetar
Aug 30 2012 07:54 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Frayed Knot wrote:
OK, why?

supposedly scheduling. since the schedule was determined before the second wild card was decided, there wasn't enough off days so it's a 2-3 schedule instead of 2-2-1.

At least, that's what they're saying. I'm not sure it actually holds up. It means the Rangers* don't know where they have to travel for the game the next day until the game is over, despite best record. And if the second wild card team wins, they're going to have to travel anyway.

Unless I'm missing something.

So say Oakland plays as the second wild card against Baltimore. if Oakland wins, both teams have to fly to oakland. and if the O's win, one team still has to fly, but it's the best record team instead of the WC team.

Frayed Knot
Aug 30 2012 08:19 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

OK, I originally read that as the WC team having the overall home-field advantage in the first round.

If it's just the order of the games that's moved not only don't I mind but I actually prefer the 2-3 format to the 2-2-1.

Swan Swan H
Aug 30 2012 08:32 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

The point that I have seen made most often is that only if the series goes five games does the team with the home field advantage actually get the home field advantage.

Ceetar
Aug 30 2012 08:43 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

I think there's something to the team with the best record in the league having to sit around and figure out where they're playing instead of sitting cozy at home saying "We're the best, who's going to come take us on?"

batmagadanleadoff
Aug 30 2012 08:45 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Ceetar wrote:
I think there's something to the team with the best record in the league having to sit around and figure out where they're playing instead of sitting cozy at home saying "We're the best, who's going to come take us on?"

If they don't like it, they could switch slots with one of the two wild card teams.

Edgy MD
Aug 30 2012 09:16 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Just to be clear, guys like Houston still have an elimination number but they are actually eliminated, because even should the current leaders were to utterly collapse, and Houston to run the board, the teams that beat Washington and Atlanta would beat them to the top.

NL East
Team W L % GB Net GB M#/E# BP % Champs
Washington 78 51 .605 --- --- 28 86.1%
Atlanta 74 57 .565 5.0 5.0 28 13.9%
New York 61 69 .469 17.5 30.0 16 0.0%
Philadelphia 61 69 .469 17.5 30.0 16 0.0%
Miami 59 72 .450 20.0 40.0 13 0.0%

NL Wildcard
Team W L % GB Net GB M#/E# BP % Champs
Cincinnati 80 52 .606 Div. Lead. --- 2.0%
Washington 78 51 .605 Div. Lead. --- 13.6%
San Francisco 72 57 .558 Div. Lead. --- 4.8%
Atlanta 74 57 .565 --- --- 32 75.8%
St. Louis 71 59 .546 --- --- 32 68.4%
Pittsburgh 70 60 .538 1.0 1.0 32 27.9%
Los Angeles 70 61 .534 1.5 2.0 31 7.9%
Arizona 64 67 .489 7.5 20.0 25 0.1%
Milwaukee 62 67 .481 8.5 24.0 25 0.1%
New York 61 69 .469 10.0 31.5 23 0.0%
Philadelphia 61 69 .469 10.0 31.5 23 0.0%
San Diego 61 71 .462 11.0 38.5 21 0.0%
Miami 59 72 .450 12.5 50.5 20 0.0%
Colorado 53 76 .411 17.5 95.5 16 0.0%
Chicago 49 80 .380 21.5 135.5 12 0.0%
Houston 40 89 .310 30.5 234.5 3 0.0%

Edgy MD
Sep 01 2012 03:43 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Come on... let's re-take third! LET'S ACHIEVE A PLAYOFF LIKELIHOOD THAT IS MEASURABLE BY TENTHS OF A PERCENT!

(Actually, in order to do that latter, we need to root for Philly tonight.)

NL East
Team W L % GB Net GB M#/E# BP % Champs
Washington 80 51 .611 --- --- 25 95.7%
Atlanta 74 58 .561 6.5 6.5 25 4.3%
Philadelphia 63 69 .477 17.5 28.5 14 0.0%
New York 62 70 .470 18.5 31.5 13 0.0%
Miami 59 73 .447 21.5 43.5 10 0.0%

NL Wildcard
Team W L % GB Net GB M#/E# BP % WC
Washington 80 51 .611 Div. Lead. --- 4.3%
Cincinnati 81 52 .609 Div. Lead. --- 0.4%
San Francisco 74 58 .561 Div. Lead. --- 3.3%
Atlanta 74 58 .561 --- --- 31 84.4%
St. Louis 71 61 .538 --- --- 31 63.7%
Pittsburgh 70 61 .534 0.5 0.5 31 33.9%
Los Angeles 70 63 .526 1.5 2.5 29 8.7%
Arizona 66 67 .496 5.5 14.5 25 1.2%
Milwaukee 63 68 .481 7.5 22.5 24 0.1%
Philadelphia 63 69 .477 8.0 25.0 23 0.0%
New York 62 70 .470 9.0 31.0 22 0.0%
San Diego 62 71 .466 9.5 34.5 21 0.0%
Miami 59 73 .447 12.0 54.5 19 0.0%
Colorado 53 77 .408 17.0 99.5 15 0.0%
Chicago 51 80 .389 19.5 124.5 12 0.0%
Houston 40 92 .303 31.0 251.0 0 0.0%

Edgy MD
Sep 01 2012 08:27 PM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Deliriously Optimistic Standings Report:

Tonight we gained a game on: Washington, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and either the Dodgers or the Diamondbacks, who are tied 1-1 in the fourth
Tonight we kept pace with: Philadelphia, St. Louis, Milwaukee and either the Dodgers or the Diamondbacks, who are tied 1-1 in the fourth.

We started the day 31.0 net games out of Wild Card contention, and will finish 27.0 out. Not a bad day's work for a team with a month left to pull of a miracle.

I look forward to tomorrow to see if our playoff odds will be up to 0.1% yet.

Edgy MD
Sep 03 2012 08:28 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

And one brass ring (a piece of third place in the division) denies us another (a visible post-season possibility percentage). Even as our fellow third-placers Philadelphia retain a 0.1% likelihood, ours remains at zero as the phumbln' Phils blow a 7-2 lead and fall to Chipper Jones and the Braves, shaving a game off our elimination number.

The one thing we have going for us is that every team we play in September is ahead of us in the standings. Of course, we've earned that the hard way, by letting them get ahead. But St. Louis is the team we want to be playing right now.

Other teams we need to root for today, in order of importance.

Rockies to beat the Braves.
Padres to beat the Dodgers.
Astros to beat the Pirates.
Marlins to beat the Brews.
Giants to beat the Diamondbacks.
Cubs to beat the Nats.
Phils to beat the Reds.

NL East
Team W L % GB Net GB M#/E# BP % Champs
Washington 81 52 .609 --- --- 23 95.9%
Atlanta 75 59 .560 6.5 6.5 23 4.1%
New York 64 70 .478 17.5 28.5 12 0.0%
Philadelphia 64 70 .478 17.5 28.5 12 0.0%
Miami 59 75 .440 22.5 48.5 7 0.0%

NL Wildcard
Team W L % GB Net GB M#/E# BP % WC
Cincinnati 82 53 .607 Div. Lead. --- 1.2%
Washington 81 52 .609 Div. Lead. --- 4.0%
San Francisco 76 58 .567 Div. Lead. --- 3.9%
Atlanta 75 59 .560 --- --- 28 85.1%
St. Louis 72 62 .537 --- --- 28 67.2%
Los Angeles 72 63 .533 0.5 0.5 28 25.1%
Pittsburgh 70 63 .526 1.5 2.5 28 21.2%
Arizona 66 69 .489 6.5 17.5 22 0.5%
Milwaukee 65 68 .489 6.5 17.5 23 0.2%
New York 64 70 .478 8.0 25.0 21 0.0%
Philadelphia 64 70 .478 8.0 25.0 21 0.1%
San Diego 62 73 .459 10.5 42.5 18 0.0%
Miami 59 75 .440 13.0 62.5 16 0.0%
Colorado 55 77 .417 16.0 89.5 14 0.0%
Chicago 51 82 .383 20.5 134.5 9 0.0%
Houston 41 93 .306 31.0 250.0 E 0.0%

Ceetar
Sep 03 2012 09:14 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Rooting for the Phils to beat Cueto and Reds can be copied to the R.A. Dickey thread as well.

Edgy MD
Sep 25 2012 09:22 AM
Re: Standings, Twenty-Twelve

Magic number for clinching fourth place is six.