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Sac Bunts

Frayed Knot Apr 16 2012 01:25 PM

... are for losers!! Just kidding, that's not what this post is about ... although did you see where the Pads sac-bunted into a triple play in the ninth inning of a tie game the other day? Anyway, BB-Ref has added the stats for all base/out situations to their data-base. So in scanning through the 2011 MLB-wide stats I thought I'd pick some out trying to discover just how often managers sac bunt - always a favorite topic around here. Most common situation? - Runners on [u:3b55p2cm]1st & 2nd with no outs[/u:3b55p2cm]. In 2,373 PAs in that situation last year there were 243 credited [u:3b55p2cm]Sacrifice Hits[/u:3b55p2cm], or about 10.2% of the time. Now that, of course, only counts [u:3b55p2cm]the successful[/u:3b55p2cm] SH's which, as far as I can tell, must be all bunts. Sac Flies are tracked separately (and wouldn't apply to this particular situation anyway) and I can't think of what else would be tagged as an SH. You don't get one simply for moving runners over by swinging. Others: - Runner on 2nd, none out = 7.9% - Runner on 1st, none out = 7.5% - 1st & 3rd, none out = 3.2% (God I hope that's mostly w/pitchers hitting!) And then at ~2% are: - Runner on 1st, one out (1.9%); - 1st & 2nd, one out (1.9%); - 1st & 3rd, 1 out (2.3%) Runner on 3rd w/1 out comes in at a shade less than 1% (0.8%) which can only mean squeeze plays (again, Sac Flies are separate) and all other situations are either zero (no one on base, or there are 2-outs ... Duh!) or so small as to be insignificant.

Edgy MD Apr 16 2012 01:33 PM Re: Sac Bunts

It's pretty frustrating that nobody authoritatively publishes data on failed sacrifice attempts. You've got to assume it's been reliably compiled for years.

Nymr83 Apr 16 2012 02:00 PM Re: Sac Bunts

Edgy DC wrote: It's pretty frustrating that nobody authoritatively publishes data on failed sacrifice attempts. You've got to assume it's been reliably compiled for years. Since we have extensive data on expected AVG by count (you have a lower expected AVG on 0-1 than you do on 0-0 etc), the title could be "Wasting Strikes: failed sacrifice bunt attempts and their negative effects on expected runs", because besides the fact that bunting is generally stupid, it isn't a case of "no harm no foul" when a hitter fails to get the bunt down and is forced to continue the plate appearence with a now worse count. Ps: bunts suck. Laughed my ass off when I saw what happened to the Padres

John Cougar Lunchbucket Apr 16 2012 02:08 PM Re: Sac Bunts

'Twas a weird play for sure. I'm not even sure if everyone runs they wouldn't get the TP. As mentioned in the game thread yesterday, Pelfrey's bunt DP was a killer I thought.

Frayed Knot Apr 16 2012 03:10 PM Re: Sac Bunts

Edgy DC wrote: It's pretty frustrating that nobody authoritatively publishes data on failed sacrifice attempts. You've got to assume it's been reliably compiled for years. There would be all kinds of 'what ifs' to go along with that. - Sac Bunts that are tried once then taken off where the result could be everything from a GiDP to a HR as opposed to those where the mgr keeps putting the sign on the entire way through - Then there'd be sac bunts that were laid down but not recorded as a Sac because they resulted in a force play, or a DP, or a K; but also others that would get scored as a hit because no out was recorded; and still others where an error was made which would be scored as Sacs even though everyone was safe. It still could be done by someone following along closely, it's just that the data wouldn't be very clean.

Frayed Knot Apr 16 2012 08:03 PM Re: Sac Bunts

One thing I didn't know about that Pads Sac/Triple Play (heard about it but didn't see a replay until after I started this thread) was that the HP ump clearly signaled foul ball before calling it fair. The fair call was the right one but the belated correction came after he messed up all the runners with the initial signal.

Edgy MD Apr 16 2012 09:32 PM Re: Sac Bunts

Two successful bunts from Gee tonight in what was a pretty impressive game, execution-wise.