Master Index of Archived Threads
Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games Ever
batmagadanleadoff May 20 2012 03:15 AM |
|
50 years from the Mets junk drawer
History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... nk-drawer/
|
Edgy MD May 20 2012 11:44 AM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
|
Not to take anything away from Harkness, but the greatest one-man/one-day freak show was Fonzie's 6-6, right?
|
batmagadanleadoff May 20 2012 12:45 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
||
Not according to WPA. Most of Fonzie's six hits probably came with the Mets already up, thus generating low marginal WPA #'s. Harkness's three extra inning hits were highly valuable WPA-wise, given the sudden death nature of being the home team in a tied extra-inning game. WPA is a bullshit stat, though, if you ask me; a by-product of randomness. Unless you can prove that hitters are clutch, and are able to elevate their skills in key game situations, another bullshit concept, if you ask me.
|
Edgy MD May 20 2012 01:46 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
That's the grace of it, though, right?
|
batmagadanleadoff May 20 2012 02:27 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
|
Not sure what you're getting at, or whether you're for or against the existence of the clutch hitter. A little help?
|
Edgy MD May 20 2012 02:37 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
I'm neither for nor against the existence.
|
HahnSolo May 20 2012 02:44 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
Nice list.
|
batmagadanleadoff May 20 2012 02:55 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
|
I didn't ask for any evidence. I already know that there is no evidence to support the existence of the clutch hitter. And evidence aside, the existence of a clutch hitter, from a logical standpoint, from an intuitive standpoint, doesn't hold water. Because if a batter had the ability to elevate his hitting in order to bring home the runner on third base, then he'd know enough about the importance of being that runner on third base in the first place. And so therefore, he'd try just as hard in those at bats when no one was on base to get to third base on his own. If a batter had the ability to bat better at key moments, why wouldn't he use those "magic clutch powers" to hit safely at all times, instead of limiting his use of the clutch to RISP's. Wouldn't he wanna bat 1.000 for the season? Wouldn't he wanna hit a homer every time up? And where the hell is the pitcher in all of this? Clutch hitting proponents act as if the pitcher is a superfluous bystander in all of this, without the ability to clutch up himself, and offset the batter's clutchness. With no say or sway in how the at bat ends up. It's all supposedly on the batter's clutchness, who apparently has total control of the at bat. It's absurd. And illogical.
|
RealityChuck May 20 2012 03:18 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
|||
But batters are human beings. Some get nervous in clutch situations. Some love being in them. If a batter gets flustered by the situation, then he's going to be worse when they come up. And if he seeks out the situation, he's going to be better. Choking in sports is a known psychological issue. Just ask Rick Ankiel why he's not on the mound these days. It has to do with thinking about things you should be doing automatically. Ankiel forgot how to throw a baseball -- a talent he'd been doing for years -- and started to think about the aspects of it instead of just throwing the ball. He is an extreme case, but clearly there are players who overthink matters when faced with pressure. On the other hand, there should be players who are more comfortable when the pressure is on, and are thus able to hit better in those situations. There are no numbers, not because it doesn't exist, but because no one has yet devised a way to quantify a clutch situation. RISP is not necessarily clutch (if you team is ahead by ten runs, it doesn't matter if you drive in anyone else).
|
Benjamin Grimm May 20 2012 03:20 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
|
Well, if that's your definition of clutch, then yes, it's absurd to think it exists. I think of clutch as a situation more than a personality trait. But if a player is "clutch" I think it means that his knees won't get wobbly when the game is on the line. It's not that he's likely to do better in such situations, but he's also less likely to do worse. Keith Hernandez was clutch. So was Mike Piazza. Is there a stat that can prove it? I would doubt it. But they had a fire in their eye when the game was on the line. They wanted to be at the plate at that big moment. I don't know that that's true of everyone.
|
batmagadanleadoff May 20 2012 03:47 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
|||||
I would've wanted Keith or Piazza up in a key situation at least as much as you would've. Not because I thought they were clutch hitters. But because I thought that, at least in their primes anyway, they were great hitters. They were all-stars, frequently generating MVP caliber seasons. And they hit will in the clutch, however that term is defined, not because they were clutch hitters, but because they were great hitters. They hit well in the clutch and in the non-clutch and on Tuesday afternoons and Saturday evenings and in May and August, too. Great hitters outhit their peers in most situations. If clutch hitting --again, however you choose to define that term -- is truly its own independent skill, apart from regular old hitting, then over the course of 100+ years of MLB, and all of the thousands and thousands of hitters who played the game, you'd find many, many hitters that were terrific in the clutch over a statistically meaningful number of AB's, yet who sucked everywhere else. Essentially, there'd be a boatload of players with lifetime .325 BA's in the clutch and higher RBi/PA rates in the clutch than in the non-clutch, who were overall .250, .260 lifetime hitters. These combined traits don't exist.
Bill James most definitely is a non-believer. James' philosophy on clutchness can be paraphrased as folllows: "Clutch hits exist. Clutch hitters don't".
I didn't literally mean "triple". I meant that he'd use his clutch powers to get on base to eventually be that runner on third. It's just as important to be the runner in scoring position as it is to be the batter that drives him in.
|
Ceetar May 20 2012 04:04 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
|
Aha, but you can only measure specific cases. What's 'clutch'? Even if we're pretending that there is some mental switch a player can actively flick and not just some unknowing change or adjustment he makes without an active decision to do so it's impossible to know what a given player determines is an important situation. (After all, don't they say players are really processing all these things subconsciously anyway, because to actively think "hmm, looks like a curveball on the inside corner, I should swing" would never be fast enough to actually swing.) So how can you measure what's important? Even the player may not know what's clutch. I know I personally (assuming there is any correlation to "real life" pressure and baseball pressure) have thought I felt calm at moments when I might have cause to be nervous. And exhibiting signs of nervousness despite outwardly thinking i'm fine. (say not sleeping before a big test or presentation) So to think to measure something where we don't even know the qualifications is silly. And the out and out obvious clutch situations are so few and far between that no player truly gets a meaningful sample size of them. Game sevens? do or die elimination games? And then you can be locked in and still subject to the whims of luck. You can hit a blast to the outfield only to have the outfielder there to make the play..but then a fan can grab teh ball over the fence and the umpire can not tell and rule it a home run. Clutch for hitting it that far? unclutch for being likely an out? clutch for it being ruled a home run anyway? or is that not a clutch situation because it was only game on of the ALDS and it was only the 8th inning and the deficit was only one run? Or is it clutch because it's a rookie player on a big market team? How do you measure that? I don't think you can. Doesn't mean clutch doesn't exist.
|
Edgy MD May 20 2012 04:13 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
||
Please don't jerk me around. I'm not young.
|
batmagadanleadoff May 20 2012 04:20 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
||
Does it really matter how clutch is measured? So long as you think that a player can elevate his performance in a certain situation -- whatever that situation is and however you define that situation -- I'd counter with: why won't the player always elevate his performance instead of waiting around for that situation? If everybody waited around for a teammate to get to second or third before they gave it their all, then they'd get shutout every game. I read some of these articles on clutch hitting and I'm supposed to come away believing that the best players get hits whenever they want to, and it's all as easy as flicking the switch that turns on the bathroom light.
|
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr May 20 2012 04:22 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
Well, yeah, it's difficult-- perhaps impossible-- to prove that clutch doesn't exist. It's also difficult to prove that ghosts DON'T exist, there ISN'T any other intelligent life in the universe, and that there is NO soul alive who thought Dillon Gee's goatee looked terrible. But it's fair to say there is no real evidence* proving the positive sides of these arguments, isn't it?
|
Ceetar May 20 2012 05:06 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
but not having real evidence is not the same as evidence for the opposite. (provided of course, that the opposite of clutch hitting is no clutch hitting. Leaving aside the idea that perhaps it's not possible to elevate your game, but maybe it's possible to psych yourself out and play worse)
|
Frayed Knot May 20 2012 05:18 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
** RealityChuck wrote: Most people who study sabermetrics -- including Bill James -- say there is.
|
Edgy MD May 20 2012 08:03 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
There's a debate?
|
Frayed Knot May 20 2012 08:06 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
|
Is that above quote not the basis for most of this thread?
|
Edgy MD May 20 2012 08:11 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
Yes. And the discussion that ensued has taken us far afield from anything remotely relating a Harkness-Alfonzo debate, with nobody really mentioning either player or either performance.
|
Frayed Knot May 20 2012 08:24 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
|
Yes, and I discussed the question about the existence (or not) of clutch hitting and then briefly went back and added my two cents about the Alfonzo v Harkness debate. Would I have been better off using 'discussion', 'question', 'topic' instead of 'debate' or was any term sufficient to send this into one of those threads which devolves into a maddening argument about the argument?
|
Edgy MD May 20 2012 08:42 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
I conceded.
|
Vic Sage May 20 2012 09:33 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
regarding "clutch"...
|
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr May 20 2012 11:58 PM Re: Some of the Quirkiest, Irkiest and Perkiest Mets Games E |
And my point was that it's damn near impossible to PROVE any negative.
|