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OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Ceetar Aug 13 2012 08:00 AM

Mets are off tonight and have given us a reason to scoreboard watch the other races, so this week starts off with the Yankees hosting the Rangers. Yankees pitching, particularly the starters, looks like June was the fluke 2.99 ERA. 3.97 and 4.41 in July and August since. Rangers are pretty good at that hitting thing, so this could be fun. Dodgers vs Pirates, Dodgers trail them by 2.5 in the 2nd wild card. (although only the giants by 1 for division) Giants get the Nats. Phillies vs. Miami battle for last place in the NL East.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Aug 13 2012 08:41 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

CC onto the DL again, they signed Derek Lowe. That said these pieces of shit nearly came back from a 10-1 deficit yesterday in Toronto.

Ceetar Aug 13 2012 08:45 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: CC onto the DL again, they signed Derek Lowe. That said these pieces of shit nearly came back from a 10-1 deficit yesterday in Toronto. on the flip side their bullpen has nearly (and has) given up a lot of big leads lately. i missed the CC thing, wow. I've been a little unfocused lately.

Ceetar Aug 13 2012 08:56 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

read the news on CC. Elbow pain but MRI is fine. Isn't that what happened to John Maine?

Edgy MD Aug 13 2012 08:58 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Derek Lowe on the Yankees is just so right. It's like the universe self-correcting. It's like water finding its level.

Ceetar Aug 13 2012 09:01 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Edgy DC wrote: Derek Lowe on the Yankees is just so right. It's like the universe self-correcting. It's like water finding its level. He has a 0.91 K/BB rate this year. That's awesome.

Edgy MD Aug 13 2012 09:13 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

2004 Red Sox who became Yankees: [list:2ssqsgig][*:2ssqsgig]Mark Bellhorn[/*:m:2ssqsgig] [*:2ssqsgig]Johnny Damon[/*:m:2ssqsgig] [*:2ssqsgig]Alan Embree[/*:m:2ssqsgig] [*:2ssqsgig]Derek F. Lowe[/*:m:2ssqsgig] [*:2ssqsgig]Ramiro Mendoza[/*:m:2ssqsgig] [*:2ssqsgig]Doug Mientkiewicz[/*:m:2ssqsgig] [*:2ssqsgig]Mike Myers[/*:m:2ssqsgig][/list:u:2ssqsgig]

Ceetar Aug 13 2012 09:22 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Edgy DC wrote: 2004 Red Sox who became Yankees: [list][*]Mark Bellhorn[/*:m] [*]Johnny Damon[/*:m] [*]Alan Embree[/*:m] [*]Derek F. Lowe[/*:m] [*]Ramiro Mendoza[/*:m] [*]Doug Mientkiewicz[/*:m] [*]Mike Myers[/*:m][/list:u] Yankees have always seemed to have an obsession with players that did well against them.

Frayed Knot Aug 13 2012 12:27 PM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Or ones who stole headlines from them: Dwight Gooden Darryl Strawberry Kevin Elster Rafael Santana Sid Fernandez

Ceetar Aug 13 2012 12:30 PM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Frayed Knot wrote: Or ones who stole headlines from them: Dwight Gooden Darryl Strawberry Kevin Elster Rafael Santana Sid Fernandez didn't the Yankees sign like every '86 Met at one point?

Frayed Knot Aug 14 2012 07:49 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

- Atlanta probably thought hosting San Diego was a good time to close the gap in the East while Washington was out in SF Except they acted like us and got out-hit 12-5 while losing 4-1 - Ryan Vogelsong, who had maybe been the Giants best pitcher over the last month or so, got smacked around by the Nats for 8 earned runs in less than 3 innings. The SF defense made it a bit worse than it should have been as the brief half-inning I saw (the 7-run top of the 3rd) included the infield muffing three consecutive plays with 1-out and the bases loaded, although somehow all were scored hits. Nats scored all 14 of their runs by the 5th inning. - Make that two bad outings in three games for Ryan Dempster with Texas. He was perfect thru 2 innings but then started the 3rd: Single - Single - Bunt - Walk - Grand Slam (Swisher) - Walk - Single - Single - Sac Fly Yanx continue to hit like idiot savants. Exactly half of their runs this year are via HRs and, despite hitting like shit with the bases loaded (.236) they have more XBHs (14) than they do singles (11) and nearly as many GS (9) as singles. - Tampa gets the Mariners this week and won their 7th straight to keep pace with the Yanx (4 back)

Frayed Knot Aug 14 2012 11:07 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Ceetar wrote: Edgy DC wrote: Derek Lowe on the Yankees is just so right. It's like the universe self-correcting. It's like water finding its level. He has a 0.91 K/BB rate this year. That's awesome. So, naturally, last night he debuts in the Bronx against Texas with 4 full innings of 2-hit, 0 BB, 4 K ball

Ceetar Aug 14 2012 11:27 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Frayed Knot wrote: Ceetar wrote: Edgy DC wrote: Derek Lowe on the Yankees is just so right. It's like the universe self-correcting. It's like water finding its level. He has a 0.91 K/BB rate this year. That's awesome. So, naturally, last night he debuts in the Bronx against Texas with 4 full innings of 2-hit, 0 BB, 4 K ball Prompting the brilliant Mike Lupica to say on his show today that he thinks Lowe will be the #2 in the playoff rotation.

Frayed Knot Aug 14 2012 07:16 PM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Derek Lowe on the Yankees is just so right. It's like the universe self-correcting. It's like water finding its level. He has a 0.91 K/BB rate this year. That's awesome. So, naturally, last night he debuts in the Bronx against Texas with 4 full innings of 2-hit, 0 BB, 4 K ball Prompting the brilliant Mike Lupica to say on his show today that he thinks Lowe will be the #2 in the playoff rotation. That's just fuckin' absurd. Let me guess, his logic has something to do with either: - the mysteriously transformative properties of the mere act of putting on a Yanqui uniform? or - the fact that Lowe had a lousy season followed by a good playoffs eight years ago means he can simply decide to do that again?

Ceetar Aug 14 2012 07:21 PM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

I was only half listening for obvious reasons. coworker I went to lunch with had it on. It was basically Kuroda-hate and no believe in Nova or Hughes.

Frayed Knot Aug 15 2012 07:21 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Well maybe someone should tell Lupica that Kuroda threw a CG 2-hitter at Texas last night. Those two hits (both singles) for the Rangers match the number of DPs they hit into and also the number of times they were picked off in game 1 of the series. There are still two more games to go in this series, but it would have been nice if the visiting team had actually shown up for either of the first two.

Gwreck Aug 15 2012 03:50 PM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Felix Hernandez perfect through 8 innings for Seattle (vs. Tampa)

Frayed Knot Aug 15 2012 03:58 PM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Desmond Jennings, leading off for Tampa

Frayed Knot Aug 15 2012 03:59 PM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Frayed Knot wrote: Desmond Jennings, leading off for Tampa STRIKE - STRIKE - FOUL - FOUL - STRIKE THREE Jeff Keppinger - pinch-hitting

Frayed Knot Aug 15 2012 04:02 PM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

GO to SS One out to go Shawn Rodriguez batting

Frayed Knot Aug 15 2012 04:03 PM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

CALLED STRIKE THREE 12th K of the game - including 5 of the final 6 23rd Perfect Game in history 3rd of the season 2nd in Seattle this season (Humber) 1-0 final, btw. Pressure on all the way.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Aug 15 2012 04:42 PM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

All hail the King.

Edgy MD Aug 15 2012 05:32 PM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

The mountains the Yankees are going to move to get his perfect ass in pinstripes.

Frayed Knot Aug 16 2012 06:42 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Wow, Texas got a whole four more hits yesterday, which brings their total in this series -- calculating -- to SUCK! Although, in their defense, they have been facing the CY-caliber trio of David Phelps, Hiroki Kuroda, and Freddie Garcia, along with the likes of Derek Lowe and Boone Logan coming out of the pen. I hope both Anaheim and Oakland catch and pass you bunch of non-hitting chumps. And speaking of blowing playoff chances, Pitt loses their third straight to the Dodgers (twice by blowout) and now sit 7 games in back of Cincy (we're not exactly helping their cause). McCutcheon suddenly not hitting in August although anything after his .446/.510/.739 July!! was going to seem like a let-down. Each set of chumps has a shot to avoid 4-game sweeps this afternoon.

Frayed Knot Aug 16 2012 03:22 PM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Nice of the Rangers to grab [u:2c4axauw]One[/u:2c4axauw] win before getting out of town. Not that they didn't try hard to lose it, blowing an early 4-0 lead and almost a later 7-5 one. Fortunately Joba sucked and gave Texas back the lead plus enough to make a cushion. Yanx only hit one HR, I think that's around 3.5 below their daily average. Jeter got two hits, one actually left the infield.

MFS62 Aug 16 2012 03:32 PM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Frayed Knot wrote: Jeter got two hits, one actually left the infield. He must have found an old stash of Melky's PEDs. Later

Frayed Knot Aug 16 2012 06:07 PM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

I mentioned the Jeter single for two reasons. - One was because I was making a big deal about a week ago about what a large segment of his hits (over 20%) have been IF singles. And since I wrote that I've seen at least 3 different IF singles from him. - I saw the hit today and it should have been: A) an error, and B) a double play, but wound up being neither. The flip from the SS pulled the 2Bman off the base and also caused his relay to be late. Couple more calls like that one and he won't have to get the ball out of the infield in order to pass Rose

Ceetar Aug 16 2012 08:34 PM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Frayed Knot wrote: I mentioned the Jeter single for two reasons. - One was because I was making a big deal about a week ago about what a large segment of his hits (over 20%) have been IF singles. And since I wrote that I've seen at least 3 different IF singles from him. - I saw the hit today and it should have been: A) an error, and B) a double play, but wound up being neither. The flip from the SS pulled the 2Bman off the base and also caused his relay to be late. Couple more calls like that one and he won't have to get the ball out of the infield in order to pass Rose I was briefly toying with it the other day. Fangraphs only seemed to have data for infield hits back to 2002, but it's Ichiro 1, Jeter 2. Jeter and Tejada both at 110 OPS+. Jeter has .30 more OPS, mostly in slugging. (actually .33 more) That's adjusted for league and park, and doesn't seem right.

Edgy MD Aug 16 2012 09:00 PM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Eight hits short of Eddie Murray for 12th place all time. 1. Pete Rose: 4,256 2. Ty Cobb: 4,189 3. Hank Aaron: 3,771 4. Stan Musial: 3,630 5. Tris Speaker: 3,514 6. Cap Anson: 3,435 7. Honus Wagner: 3,420 8. Carl Yastrzemsk: 3,419 9. Paul Molitor: 3,319 10. Eddie Collins: 3,315 11. Willie Mays: 3,283 12. Eddie Murray: 3,255 13. Derek Jeter: 3,247 14. Nap Lajoie: 3,242 15. Cal Ripken: 3,184 16. George Brett: 3,154 17. Paul Waner: 3,152 18. Robin Yount: 3,142 19. Tony Gwynn: 3,141 20. Dave Winfield: 3,110

Frayed Knot Aug 17 2012 07:02 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Ceetar wrote: I was briefly toying with it the other day. Fangraphs only seemed to have data for infield hits back to 2002, but it's Ichiro 1, Jeter 2. Jeter and Tejada both at 110 OPS+. Jeter has .30 more OPS, mostly in slugging. (actually .33 more) That's adjusted for league and park, and doesn't seem right. That Jeter & Ichiro have the most infield hits over the last whatever years isn't surprising seeing as how they both, I'm sure, have among the most total hits over that time. What struck me recently (first by eye, then confirmed by data) is that both the pct and the number of IF for Jeter has gone up in recent years to where it's nearly the highest in his career now at age 38. Some of that could likely be explained by his decreasing power (fewer XBHs means the smaller hits are now a bigger pct of the whole) but the number of IF hits* is going up too and, unlike a speedy, slappy-hitting LHB such as Ichiro, Jeter's IF hits seem to mostly come off of full swings matched with 'you couldn't have placed there any better' good fortune (plus a friendly scoring decision here and there) which you think would just be the result of random chance. And yet it continues. * he's on pace to wind up with nearly twice as many IF hits during his age 36-38 seasons as he had during his 26-28 years

Ceetar Aug 17 2012 07:24 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Frayed Knot wrote: * he's on pace to wind up with nearly twice as many IF hits during his age 36-38 seasons as he had during his 26-28 years In an age when people are shifting more, power (and not just his despite the little league park) is down, how is this even possible?

Ceetar Aug 17 2012 07:28 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

on my way to check his b-r page, and one of the companion searches is "Derek Jeter herpes" apparently he gave Jessica Alba herpes or something. I think i mentioned this in the MFY thread actually, but his worst career OPSs with a meaninful sample size are against the Red Sox, Mariners, White Sox, Rays, and Orioles. He's been pretty bad against the Rays these last couple of years too, in the aggressive shift days. You think the other clubs would learn. Although maybe they have, since he's pretty bad against the AL East that sees him the most.

Frayed Knot Aug 17 2012 07:37 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

in an age when people are shifting more, power (and not just his despite the little league park) is down, how is this even possible? I dunno, hence my [crossout]obsession[/crossout] ... er, interest in this topic. I don't think it's shifts with Jeter; he's always been an all-fields hitter and swinging bunts or 'tweeners' just can't be defended. Plus I don't see the infield hits he's getting as having any particular pattern to them other than good fortune (or lax official scorers).

Edgy MD Aug 17 2012 07:40 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Well, part of it is that he's hitting a lot more infield grounders, so that a greater number of grounders are available to turn into infield hits. I field dirty just checking is baseball-reference page, you know?

Ceetar Aug 17 2012 07:43 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Frayed Knot wrote: in an age when people are shifting more, power (and not just his despite the little league park) is down, how is this even possible? I dunno, hence my [crossout]obsession[/crossout] ... er, interest in this topic. I don't think it's shifts with Jeter; he's always been an all-fields hitter and swinging bunts or 'tweeners' just can't be defended. Plus I don't see the infield hits he's getting as having any particular pattern to them other than good fortune (or lax official scorers). oh, he definitely gets a bunch of them on reputation. I wonder if he played at a more fair park, if he'd basically be Luis Castillo (well that's an exaggeration) and people would play him in more? He's not exactly a guy tattooing the fences, so if the outfielders played in so his flares to the outfield got caught, the infielders could play in and make the plays on his squibs? But the extra half dozen home runs he gets makes people think he has power. (Well, not A-Rod, he always understood Jeter was the guy you pitched to when you faced the Yankees) Or maybe he's just good enough to hit fastballs well so that pitchers throw breaking stuff, and he's got good enough bat control to bat-on-ball those and it results in all sorts of weird bounces and hops? Edgy DC wrote: Well, part of it is that he's hitting a lot more infield grounders, so that a greater number of grounders are available to turn into infield hits. I field dirty just checking is baseball-reference page, you know? yeah. *shudder* I keep trying to figure out how to add "Gave Jessica Alba Herpes" to his list of nicknames.

Edgy MD Aug 17 2012 07:50 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Yeah, if I'm reading the numbers right, his GB/FB ratio has been ballooning, while his infield hit percentage has remained relatively steady. Season GB/FB IFH% 2002 2.30 6.80% 2003 2.54 6.60% 2004 1.47 10.50% 2005 2.89 7.50% 2006 3.25 8.40% 2007 2.33 9.60% 2008 2.45 8.40% 2009 2.51 7.10% 2010 3.60 7.10% 2011 3.36 8.30% 2012 5.02 8.90%

Ceetar Aug 17 2012 07:52 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

I think he's a decent comp for Daniel Murphy personally.

Edgy MD Aug 17 2012 07:55 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Who did Daniel Murphy infect?

Ceetar Aug 17 2012 08:01 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

Edgy DC wrote: Who did Daniel Murphy infect? baseball comp. Murphy's not big enough to be able to woo the ladies with signed baseballs. (I don't think? maybe?)

John Cougar Lunchbucket Aug 17 2012 08:08 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

I wouldn't consider Jeter and Muffy to be much alike, other than both of them being baseball players.

Ceetar Aug 17 2012 08:13 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I wouldn't consider Jeter and Muffy to be much alike, other than both of them being baseball players. roughly the same power, roughly the same defense qualities and range (although 18 years of experience probably helps one over the other..) good bat control, reputation, if unearned in some cases, as a hard-nosed player?

metsmarathon Aug 17 2012 08:57 AM Re: OOTS: 8/13-8/19

if you consider murphy's season last year to be more indicative of his ability than this season, then he's not all that far off, once you account for hte difference in offensive environments. his obp relative to the league average was 40 points higher, jeters was 50 points higher. his slg relative to teh league average is 50 points higher, jeters was 40. is the difference between their performances attributable to the league environment? maybe. but that's a real useful obp advantage that jeter has. but jeter also had a ton of speed over murphy. also health. and his speed helps take advantage of that edge in obp. defensively, well, shortstop is a tougher position, but in terms of devensive value, its actually a wash right now, murphy at 2b versus jeter at ss at about hte same age. unfortunately, this current season represents a heeyooj step back for murphy, calling into question where his true level of talent is. i'd like to see him develop into something even close, offensively, to what jeter has provided through his career. i'm not terribly confident we'll see it, but it would sure be nice.