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2013 OF options

Mex17 Aug 27 2012 04:21 PM

It's pretty clear to me that they really need to import at least two-thirds of a new outfield for next year (assuming LF will be a Duda/Bay platoon at least at the start). Maybe I can live with Nieuwenhuis platooning with a righty (I'll get to that later), but I think that would be far from ideal and a lot would have to go wrong this winter before that happens I would hope. So, with that in mind, I took the liberty of identifying some potential guys that they can go for. The FA's are listed in order of preference (one list each for CF and RF), and the trade targets (which are purely speculative, obviously I don't know what all the other GM's are thinking) are in no particular order. . . Oh, and unless I indicated otherwise, these guys are all righhanded bats. I think that this needs to be the priority, given their trouble against leftys this year. Also, I'm not thinking as much with regard to who to give up in a trade yet (although I have a few ideas in mind. . .we can get to that if the conversation takes off). I'm just thinking of potential targets as a first step. Free Agents: CF: Michael Bourn (Lefty, but more of a leadoff type. I was thinking more righthanded bat with pop insofar as for the middle of the order) Shane Victorino (Switch) B.J. Upton RF: Nick Swisher Delmon Young (primarily a leftfielder though) Trade Targets: CF: Jacoby Ellsbury (Lefty, same concept as Bourn. Red Sox look to be unloading) Peter Bourjous (candidate to platoon with Kirk) Coco Crisp (platoon with Kirk) Drew Stubbs (platoon with Kirk) Chris Young Dexter Fowler (switch) RF: Jose Bautista (Toronto went nowhere this year. . .maybe they want to dump salary?) Jeff Francoeur (we know what he is. . .can do better but can do worse) Josh Willingham (see Delmon Young. . .primarily a leftfielder) Corey Hart Justin Upton (not totally speculative. . .I remember hearing scuttlebut that he was/is on the market) Michael Cuddyer Plan A for me is Bourn/Upton (or Bourn/Bautista if Bautista is actually available). Ellsbury/Swisher is second. Bourn/Willingham might not be bad either. Discuss. . .

Ceetar Aug 27 2012 05:10 PM Re: 2013 OF options

first off, I'm worried about over-compensating for the lefty thing. If Duda and Nieuwenhuis end up not being true major leaguers, we don't quite have a lefty problem anymore. Ike and Murphy and Thole, but I'm not sure that's worrisome, especially if they trade Murphy or do upgrade with Thole. (although I wouldn't rule out his year this year being concussion related) Do we need two? maybe. ruling out Bay. anything we get from him is "good problem to have'. Personally I think you might keep Torres, although he's been so streaky, so let's just say '4th outfielder' along with Hairston who hopefully they resign. so yeah, two. Duda and Nieuwenhuis probably float around, but having two other guys would help. I doubt you make two big free agent signings there though. so I suspect they'll bring in a second guy via trade and probably a lesser guy. Justin Upton is the dream, I doubt it happens though. B.J. doesn't seem worth what he's going to get, but I'd certainly take him at something reasonable though, he's a good age and plays good D and CF which I think is really important for next year. iffy on Bourne. He's not excellent or anything. But he's speedy, plays good defense, will be 30. Wouldn't want to give him too big a contract either though, and it seems like he's going to get one. Victorino will be 32, and is having his worst year of his career. seems on the down swing. Swisher? ugh. He's really not that good, bolstered numbers by YSIII, really bad defensively.. Older..Pass. Delmon Young seems like a prefect candidate to come to New York and Jeremy Burnitz it. Michael Cuddyer, or Chris Young, or Jacoby Ellsbury I'd consider in various trades though. i'm really not sold on this outfield market. McHugh, Familia and Murphy for Justin Upton? *Shrugs*

smg58 Aug 27 2012 06:55 PM Re: 2013 OF options

Before discussing free agency, I'd need to know how much spare change we have to work with, and whether that number will change if we extend Wright and/or Dickey. I wouldn't pay full price on Justin Upton off this season, but I check in on him at least. Willingham and Cuddyer were not put on the market in July and have team-friendly deals (especially Willingham). I wouldn't hold my breath. I'd ideally like a leadoff hitter plus a slugger, but I'd sacrifice one for the glove of Bourjos if the price is right. The Angels could have sold very high on Bourjos this past offseason if they wanted to; instead he got off to a rough start, Trout got the call, and he was basically Wally Pipped. I think his numbers would look a lot better if he got regular ABs, but he can't command as much on the trade market now. There might be a buy-low opportunity there. I think Duda should be traded to the AL, and Nieuwenhuis should be kept as a platoon starter. But that depends on what resources are available.

Ceetar Aug 27 2012 07:49 PM Re: 2013 OF options

I think Bourjos is basically crap that had a good (not great) one year. But I guess if you could steal him low.. Justin Upton is very good, but he's basically got a free agent contract (I didn't realize that) so if they ARE looking to move him, they can't be demanding _that_ much. 10, 14, 14 basically, after only making 7 this year. So his price tag is only rising and he had a down year. no way to know how much we have to spend. I guess you can figure a modest raise if you can sell it as a really good move to Fred or Jeff. I suspect that's where Alderson is.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 27 2012 08:03 PM Re: 2013 OF options

I'll bet anything that the Mets'll suck doodyballs next year, just the same as this year, and it won't make a damn difference what oufielder (or outfielders) the Mets might get from outside the organization because, given the money Sandy'll have to spend, they'll be lucky to get another Andres Torres. Really. Who mentioned Bautista? Who here thinks the Mets are gonna pick up someone's $14M a year contract for a guy -- one guy -- about as old as Jason Bay? $14M for one player? Toto, I've a feeling we're still gonna spend like the team in Kansas City.

Mex17 Aug 27 2012 08:37 PM Re: 2013 OF options

So say that Bourn commands somewhere in the $9-10 million range as a FA after making I think around $7 million this year. Justin Upton makes $10 next year. . .that would be $20 million for two thirds of the outfield. In 2014 you get Bay off the books, so that more than makes up for Upton's uptick in salary. You still need to work out a trade for Upton, but for the moment that is slightly outside the scope of this conversation. Granted you still have to lock up Wright and Dickey and get the bullpen fixed (K-Rod again at a reasonable rate??), but I think all of that is reasonable provided that we were told the truth about the Wilpons being back in the game once the Madoff stuff got cleared up and they got their minority investors. What I am talking about is nowhere near what the Dodgers are doing and I feel should be totally within expectations for a New York team to be able to afford. If it cannot happen, then; a) we were lied to by Wilpon and Selig, b) they should trade Wright and Dickey this winter, and c) Wilpon should do the honorable thing and sell off to someone who can pay the damn bills!

Ceetar Aug 27 2012 08:48 PM Re: 2013 OF options

Mex17 wrote: What I am talking about is nowhere near what the Dodgers are doing and I feel should be totally within expectations for a New York team to be able to afford. If it cannot happen, then; a) we were lied to by Wilpon and Selig, b) they should trade Wright and Dickey this winter, and c) Wilpon should do the honorable thing and sell off to someone who can pay the damn bills! Probably shades of gray there. I doubt the Wilpons drastically increase payroll (or that Alderson will) without the revenue and winning to back it up. The Dodgers are in a pennant race. Virtually nothing is coming off the books _this_ year. (Torres, Pelfrey, Rauch I guess depending? That's probably enough to spend on the bullpen. Only need 2-3 guys really..) I'm not sure $20 for two players and then futzing with the bullpen is necessarily the way they go. I also don't think they go with two multi-year outfield contracts. But one? sure. Incremental increases. That's probably where the Mets are right now.

Mex17 Aug 27 2012 08:51 PM Re: 2013 OF options

Incremental increases = Wright and Dickey walk after 2013. Not good enough.

Ceetar Aug 27 2012 09:02 PM Re: 2013 OF options

Mex17 wrote: Incremental increases = Wright and Dickey walk after 2013. Not good enough. incremental increases in payroll, not talent. they're probably not as far away as you think. And if you pay them now, which is possible, they're not going anywhere. They may talk a big game, but the biggest think a club can do to "prove they're trying to win" is to give the player questioning it money.

Mex17 Aug 27 2012 09:06 PM Re: 2013 OF options

I think that they are going to want to see some things happen before they put their names on another contract. That's what I would do.

Edgy MD Aug 27 2012 09:13 PM Re: 2013 OF options

They've made pretty clear that they intend to go after Wright and Dickey this off-season. I went down this road with Ashie, but I think you one place too much stock in the notion that a player won't sign a big contract because he isn't seeing other money being thrown around.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Aug 27 2012 09:46 PM Re: 2013 OF options Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 27 2012 09:57 PM

Mex17 wrote: Incremental increases = Wright and Dickey walk after 2013. Not good enough. Well, then, I suppose they'll walk. Because the spending hold is what's going to happen, according to every word spoken by Alderson about the subject-- and every single implication folded into those words-- over the last six months or so.

Frayed Knot Aug 27 2012 09:54 PM Re: 2013 OF options

Mex17 wrote: So say that Bourn commands somewhere in the $9-10 million range as a FA after making I think around $7 million this year. Bourn is a 29 y/o speedster and GG-caliber CFer who should be top 5 in MVP voting this winter coming up on probably his one and only chance at being a FA ... and you think he's signing for under $10mil?!?!?

Mex17 Aug 28 2012 04:30 AM Re: 2013 OF options

Frayed Knot wrote: Mex17 wrote: So say that Bourn commands somewhere in the $9-10 million range as a FA after making I think around $7 million this year. Bourn is a 29 y/o speedster and GG-caliber CFer who should be top 5 in MVP voting this winter coming up on probably his one and only chance at being a FA ... and you think he's signing for under $10mil?!?!? Fine. If he commands more, ante up. I think that it makes baseball sense this time. If they were not 7 games over .500 at one point this year and/or they actually had some outfield talent coming up (other than Kirk, who might be OK but was clearly exposed one time around the circuit, got sent down again, and promptly got injured and was not able to finish a second consecutive season) and/or if their two mid-career stars were not coming up against "stay or walk" time I would say stick with the austerity plan and wait it out until you can home grow a team. But, to me, every baseball indicator tells me that this winter is the time to pull some triggers. The only thing that might cause it not to happen is this "Wilpon is broke" stuff. I don't want to totally harp on a single point, but that should not be a factor. Either the guy can afford a baseball team in New York or he can't, it needs to be that simple.

Mex17 Aug 28 2012 04:37 AM Re: 2013 OF options

Unless you are that afraid that Bourn is going to transfigure into Vince Coleman, are you?

Ceetar Aug 28 2012 05:43 AM Re: 2013 OF options

Mex17 wrote: Unless you are that afraid that Bourn is going to transfigure into Vince Coleman, are you? I see him being a lot like Daniel Murphy. Quicker, better on defense at a premium position, but not as good a hitter with fewer XBH, though a few clear the wall. worth a lot of money and a commitment? no. There is no way he's top 5 MVP this season. I'm not sure he should get any votes. He might not even be top 5 on his own team. And he's coming off what looks like a career year. why overpay for that? I disagree that we _need_ speed on the 2013 Mets. I don't want slow guys, but substitute a little smart baserunning and good reads of baseballs on defense. I don't think it's ever wise to pay for speed, unless it's part of a total package and you're retaining your own guy. those things are better left to the rookies and younger guys, not the free agents.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Aug 28 2012 06:31 AM Re: 2013 OF options Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 28 2012 06:34 AM

Ceetar wrote: Mex17 wrote: Unless you are that afraid that Bourn is going to transfigure into Vince Coleman, are you? I see him being a lot like Daniel Murphy. Quicker, better on defense at a premium position, but not as good a hitter with fewer XBH, though a few clear the wall. worth a lot of money and a commitment? no. So, to review... you see him as being a lot like Murphy, only nothing like Murphy? If you're looking for a better Metly comparison, Bourn is, offensively, Angel Pagan-- gap power, similar contact/line-drive rates, speed to burn, and an OBP that's a LITTLE more BABIP-dependent than you'd like from a "leadoff guy." Only he's much better-- and consistently so-- in the field... and probably a little faster, too (at least, game-speed-wise). So the floor's a lot higher than Angel's (or, say, Torres'). And this "career" year he's having? He had virtually the same year last year. He might be a safer bet than you think.

Gwreck Aug 28 2012 06:32 AM Re: 2013 OF options

Ceetar wrote: There is no way he's top 5 MVP this season. I'm not sure he should get any votes. He might not even be top 5 on his own team. Bourn leads the Braves with 5.7 WAR. That's third in the national league, behind only David Wright (5.9) and Andrew McCutchen (5.8).

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Aug 28 2012 06:35 AM Re: 2013 OF options

Gwreck wrote: Ceetar wrote: There is no way he's top 5 MVP this season. I'm not sure he should get any votes. He might not even be top 5 on his own team. Bourn leads the Braves with 5.7 WAR. That's third in the national league, behind only David Wright (5.9) and Andrew McCutchen (5.8). To be fair, a LOT of that value is in UZR/fielding. To rebut myself, he IS pretty objectively awesome in center, each and every year-- which is to say, he passes the eye test of the Fangraphs/B-R glove numbers.

Frayed Knot Aug 28 2012 06:35 AM Re: 2013 OF options

Ceetar wrote: I see [Bourne as] being a lot like Daniel Murphy. I'll take 'Players I couldn't imagine being more DIS-similar' for $600 Alex

Ceetar Aug 28 2012 06:43 AM Re: 2013 OF options

Gwreck wrote: Ceetar wrote: There is no way he's top 5 MVP this season. I'm not sure he should get any votes. He might not even be top 5 on his own team. Bourn leads the Braves with 5.7 WAR. That's third in the national league, behind only David Wright (5.9) and Andrew McCutchen (5.8). heavily heavily defense weighted. And I very much don't trust the defensive statistics. (not to say he's not good at it, just that it adds that much) Fangraphs had his last three Fld at 19.4, -6.4,17.2. Crazy fluctuation. Actually, he's worse than Daniel Murphy, besides the defense. He's having a similar year to last year, yes, but with a couple more home runs, which you never count on translating to New York and year to year. He's got 9, 4 more than his previous career high in hitter-friendly Houston. This is like Daniel Murphy leading the team with 12 in 2009. outlier. He's got 1 more XBH than Murphy in 100 more PA, and some of those are speed bases whereas Murphy's aren't. So what you're paying for is defense that might drop a bit with age. He's certainly a helpful piece to have (Daniel Murphy is a helpful piece to have) but I don't want to overpay for that. And the Mets need power and he provides basically none.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Aug 28 2012 06:57 AM Re: 2013 OF options

With all due respect... if you think that Michael Bourn is inferior to Daniel Murphy in any baseball-playing way other than "ability to get white Met fans to buy green shirts with his name/number on the back," you're foockin' high, boyo. Bourn is objectively better at walking than Murphy, and his on-base skills (walk rate/ground-ball rate) are both better than DM's AND getting better. He benefits from good BABIP numbers, yes, but he's also the rare kind of player-- namely, a speedy lefty-hitting one-- who can sustain such rates. The one-- ONE-- real area* where Murphy has the career edge-- isolated power-- he really doesn't have an edge in anymore; his isoP numbers have dropped steadily and precipitously in each of the last three years. *Murphy also strikes out a lot less; but he does pop up/make weak contact a LOT more, it seems... so it more or less evens out

Ceetar Aug 28 2012 07:10 AM Re: 2013 OF options

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: With all due respect... if you think that Michael Bourn is inferior to Daniel Murphy in any baseball-playing way other than "ability to get white Met fans to buy green shirts with his name/number on the back," you're fucking high. Bourn is objectively better at walking than Murphy, and his on-base skills (walk rate/ground-ball rate) are both better than DM's AND getting better. He benefits from good BABIP numbers, yes, but he's also the rare kind of player-- namely, a speedy lefty-hitting one-- who can sustain such rates. The one-- ONE-- area where Murphy has the career edge-- isolated power-- he really doesn't have an edge in anymore; his isoP numbers have dropped steadily and precipitously in each of the last three years. Murphy has a higher career OBP than Bourn. And has had a higher OPS in every season except this one. (which would be about equal at Bourn's career SLG w/o the flukey home run numbers) Bourn's OBP last four years: .354, .341,.349,.352. Sure, he's better at getting on than Murphy _this year_ but Murphy still has the better career numbers. (You could toss out Bourn's early years as he was still learning the way it made sense to toss Reyes' early years when talking OBP, but Murphy's played half the time Bourn has so maybe Murphy takes more walks in the future too..) Sure, Bourn does actually walk more, but Murphy strikes out less and hits the ball harder. The comparison is silly anyway, but I was just looking for an in house comparison for offensive production. I don't think you should pay for defense and speed, and his hitting doesn't add enough imo.

metsmarathon Aug 28 2012 07:23 AM Re: 2013 OF options

the mets don't need power, they need production. and michael bourn produces. if you only look at offensive production, he's at 3.4 oWAR (offensive WAR). it puts his at 13th in the NL. wright sits at 5th in the NL with 4.4 oWAR. (hey, look, a fair chunk of david's value is defense. but who needs defense, right?) interstingly, and rather maddeningly, sitting tied with michael bourn at 3.4 oWAR is his near-analogue, angel pagan. ugh, what a fucking stinker of a trade that was. daniel murphy sits at 48th in the NL with 1.8 oWAR. he's tied actually with scott hairston and ruben tejada. ike davis leads the mets with 22 homers. he has plenty of power. but his production, this year, is horrible, at 0.3 oWAR (offensive component of WAR).

Ceetar Aug 28 2012 07:36 AM Re: 2013 OF options

metsmarathon wrote: the mets don't need power, they need production. and michael bourn produces. if you only look at offensive production, he's at 3.4 oWAR (offensive WAR). it puts his at 13th in the NL. wright sits at 5th in the NL with 4.4 oWAR. (hey, look, a fair chunk of david's value is defense. but who needs defense, right?) interstingly, and rather maddeningly, sitting tied with michael bourn at 3.4 oWAR is his near-analogue, angel pagan. ugh, what a fucking stinker of a trade that was. daniel murphy sits at 48th in the NL with 1.8 oWAR. he's tied actually with scott hairston and ruben tejada. ike davis leads the mets with 22 homers. he has plenty of power. but his production, this year, is horrible, at 0.3 oWAR (offensive component of WAR). True. Actually Ike Davis has gotten his OPS+ over 100, which is interesting at least. Wright has had a very pedestrian second half unfortunately. I wouldn't be surprised if he was at 4 oWAR a month ago. sad. hey, we need outfields and Pagan is a free agent right? I wasn't a real big fan of that trade, but I liked getting two players. and we still have those two players..who may or may not help next year. Ramirez has to be better right? this year being the oddity? I'm not saying Bourn isn't productive, i'm saying he isn't more productive than Murphy. I don't want to overpay someone like that, just because they also play good defense. I don't want to be forced into a second-tier option because the Mets are desperate. I think they do need power. They're still actually up there in OBP and even in runs scored. But they need to raise their slugging to better utilize that OBP. It was the same problem last year, and i thought Duda/Davis and maybe Torres and Murphy actually hitting a couple would help. (or Bay? naah) didn't work out that way.

metsmarathon Aug 28 2012 08:03 AM Re: 2013 OF options

Ceetar wrote: I'm not saying Bourn isn't productive, i'm saying he isn't more productive than Murphy. i think either you don't know what productive means, or you don't know what more means. 3.4 > 1.8. in fact, 3.4 is nearly double 1.8. michael bourn is nearly twice as productive as murphy. and that's only looking at the offensive component of their production. Ceetar wrote: I think they do need power. They're still actually up there in OBP and even in runs scored. But they need to raise their slugging to better utilize that OBP. It was the same problem last year, and i thought Duda/Davis and maybe Torres and Murphy actually hitting a couple would help. (or Bay? naah) didn't work out that way. the average NL team has scored 543 runs to date. the mets have scored 534. the average NL team has a 0.318 OBP, the mets have a 0.321 OBP. the average NL team has a 0.401 SLG, the mets have a 0.389 SLG. it's not that the mets need more power this year, tehy need more production, be it in the form of homers or doubles, or hits or walks or stolen bases. when they were getting non-power production this year, tehy were doing fine. then the non-power production dropped off, and they did as well. lucas duda had more home runs this year than last year, in nearly the same number of plate appearances. but his overall production was shit. ike davis, again, lots of power. overall production, shit. the mets need more production. be it in the form of getting on base, or knocking hte ball over hte fence, tehy need more offensive production. this isn't fantasy, where you need home runs to balance out your stolen bases. if you can build a productive offense just by hitting a shit-ton of singles, walking a lot, and stealing a ton of bases, you do it. whatever works. hitting home runs helps you score runs. but so does getting on base and taking extra bases. the mets need to do either or both better next year. and michael bourn would help in that regard. jose reyes was a rather productive player without hitting too many home runs, ya know.

Ceetar Aug 28 2012 08:12 AM Re: 2013 OF options

I'm talking about Murphy the career player, and Bourn the career player mainly. And what to expect going forward. I would put my money on them playing closer to their career levels than their this year levels. anyway. I still think the Mets need power. I'm not necessarily advocating a 30 HR .310 OBP guy, but I think they need less players that hit 2 or less home runs. (Tejada, Thole, Torres, Murphy not far behind) As you showed, the Mets run scored numbers and OBP numbers are roughly league average even after basically adding 10 games to the denominator and nothing to the numerator. Do we expect this 10 game stretch to be part of the Mets overall 2013 outlook? I expect those numbers to tick back up after they rebound from this anyway. But their slugging is still sub-par, or par at best. The Mets can get on base but they're not particularly fast as a team, don't run the bases well, and hit a lot of singles. There is a lot of value added by hitting one over the fence and capitalizing on those runners the Mets often strand by being more station to station than most. I'm not saying add power at the expense of these other things, but adding that power is a hole in the Mets offensive game that would be valuable to fill. More valuable than adding a guy that's good on defense or speedy and can steal bases or hit lefties or whatever other offensive holes we're looking at.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 28 2012 08:33 AM Re: 2013 OF options

For tomorrow, we can discuss the similarities between Bryce Harper and Dan Murphy to decide whether Sandy Alderson should acquire the Nat rookie phenom.

metsmarathon Aug 28 2012 08:37 AM Re: 2013 OF options

again, if hte mets are to add a 5WAR player next year to the outfield, i really don't give a rats ass if those 5 WAR come entirely from hitting home runs, or singles, or stealing bases, or defense, or if the only time he ever gets a hit is when he hits a ground rule double that bounces off the third base bag and into the visiting dugout but he does it often enough that it tallies 5 fucking WAR. i care about those 5 WAR. give me 5 WAR. i don't care where tehy come from, or how thye are tallied. give me 5 WAR. and get rid of (or just don't play) a guy who isn't going to give me anything. like jason bay. power hitters tally WAR with fewer hits than singles hitters or speedsters. so its easier to find a 5-WAR power hitter than another type of hitter. but those WAR are worth just the same. and those WAR will probably come cheaper if they are not tied to power numbers (market inefficiency, yay!). again, i don't care how hte player accumulates 5 WAR, i want 5 WAR. i'll take more, mind you. but i don't care how i take it. power. speed. defense. a mix of all three. i don't care. i want the production.

metirish Aug 28 2012 08:50 AM Re: 2013 OF options

The Bourn Conundrum

Ceetar Aug 28 2012 09:09 AM Re: 2013 OF options

yes, but WAR is a figurative stat. And I question it's precise value defensively anyway, and suspect that it's overrating good defense, and also overexaggerating Bourn's defense this year and it doesn't seem to have any predictive value on his defensive value next year. Plus Bourn gets a (.5 I think) weight for being a center fielder. That, in general, equates in wins in that sense that the replacement level for center fielders is lower and you'd probably be stuck with someone much less valuable than you would if you were to subtract out a RFer, but it's not actually production per-say. Yes, ultimately Alderson's quote of "we need an influx of productive players" is simple and to the point. What i'm suggesting though, is that adding a 5 WAR slugger to the Mets is going to create more runs than a 5 WAR all around player. 5 oWAR anyway, because the Mets need some offense in the outfield, and defense is definitely important, but as we've seen this past week, preventing runs doesn't help you win if you don't score any. WAR is about league average, but I think the Mets generally have more guys on base than league average, so whereas a home run is equated to ~1.95 runs scored, on the Mets maybe it eclipses 2. Obviously, singles will increase in value too, but you need to bunch them up more. If you take a seasons worth of singles and toss them on the board, you are going to end up with a lot of 2 singles in a row, first and third, no one scores. mix in some home runs to clear the bases. I think that's important here. The Mets this year played a lot of games where they did things like get a couple of hits and walk and only scored one or none. When one guy slumped because the hits weren't falling they didn't score. The Mets had so many games recently, and all season, where slumps and bad luck ran together and they only managed a couple of baserunners. if you traded a couple of those singles for home runs, they win a couple more games. Look at what Ike Davis has done for the Mets this past two weeks. (granted he has a 1.143 OPS over the last two weeks. that's productive no matter how you slice it) He was able to take advantage of a pitchers mistake, but instead of it being a hard single or double, and needing the other productive players on the team to line up hits next to his to score, it left the yard and won the game. That's how you beat good pitchers when they're pitching good, which is sort of required to be successful in this league. I don't think Bourn is a good fit, in part for this reason. But it's easy to over compensate too. Davis might hit thirty home runs this year anyway. If the Mets believe Duda is going to take a step forward, and Nieuwenhuis can contribute, they probably do get enough power there. Maybe Tejada does grow into a little power. Maybe the Mets keep Shoppach around, or get Doumit or someone else with a little back up/platoon pop.

metsmarathon Aug 28 2012 11:29 AM Re: 2013 OF options

the chief offensive problem for the mets this year has been that there were too many offensive black holes, and not that too much offensive production came in the form of singles vice home runs. while, yes, you need to score runs to win games, you also have to prevent the other team from scoring runs, and defense does that. we've had more than enough games where our defense lost the game for us. taken in hte context of a single at bat in the last frame of a tied game, with no runners on base, yes, a home run is preferable to any other outcome. taken over the course of a full season, a whole lot of singles and doubles is preferable to a whole lot of nothing, with a bunch of home runs mixed in. the mets have had some power this season. the problem is that hte hitters who should be able to provide it have not stepped up the rest of their game, and weren't able to then hit enough to hit enough homers. lucas duda had a HR/FB% of 9.8%. that's pretty good - dan uggla, miguel montero, ryan zimmerman range. power hitter! captain kirk, despite his struggles, is at 8.2%, better than league average, and a shade behind wright's 8.8%. the problem with those guys was that they weren't hitting enough fly balls, nor enough in general, for their power to amount to much of anything. 18% of valdespin's fly balls go out of hte yard. but he's hitting 0.242. by the way. michael bourn gets a 2run positional adjustment. murphy, 1 run. the difference is not position, but production. at 26, bourn had 3.5 oWAR, at 27 he had 2.1, and followed that with 3.2 and this year's 3.4 at 26, murphy had 1.9 (injury shortened sure, but it still prorates up to maybe 3.0) at 27, he may well match bourn's 2.1 - he's on track. at this point, i'm more confident that bourn will notch another 3.3ish oWAR season than i am that murphy will. but i hope to be surprised. last year, bourn was replacement level defenisvely, on teh whole. it was the only season his defense was not a plus. you could probably count on him to be worth 1-1.5 wins on defense, conservatively. murphy was a positive defensive contributor late year as well, but thata was on teh strength of his firtbase game. at second, he is not a positive contributer, defenisvely. i think he can still improve, but i don't think he will get up to even close to the level that bourn is at. by every way i can look at it, bourn is more productive than murphy. the giants have no power, with 78 homers on the year. 30 fewer than the mets. they've scored 15 more runs. how? higher batting average, higher on base percentage. oh, and they lead tehir league (for now) there's more thaan one way to produce offensive value. a team does not need to hit a lot of hime runs to be successful, though it rarely hurts. though if you listen to the local media, and i'm not saying you should, one of hte biggest knocks agains the mfy's is that they hit too many home runs. and that's ridiculous, too.

Ceetar Aug 28 2012 11:59 AM Re: 2013 OF options

the chief offensive problem for the mets this year has been that there were too many offensive black holes, and not that too much offensive production came in the form of singles vice home runs. The Mets have not been no-hit this year. But they've been shut out plenty. What if some of those 3-singles games were 2 singles and a home run? Hell, what if it were two singles and a roaring double off the wall, one of those that you have no doubt isn't going to be caught and allows you to score from first even if you're slow? Especially on a young team that's constantly adjusting and learning, as the Mets were and will be next year too, there is value in having that sudden run-scoring ability. When various members of the team go into offensive black holes, they can still occasionally score runs. Doing more with less. When guys are slumping the chances of stringing together hits for multiple runs is tough, but if all it takes is the one swing you might be able to steal 2 or 3 runs. Look at how the Mets performed with Davis being a disaster, compared to how they did with Duda being a disaster. Davis was occasionally putting one over the fence. Obviously it's not the only difference, but it's a factor. There were games Davis won 'by himself' when he was slumping. Duda did not, leaving runners on and if he did occasionally get a walk or a single that fell in, he didn't score because he's slow and he had singles hitters behind him. You could see it early on the season as well, when the Mets were being outscored because they'd score a lot and win games, or they'd score only a few and lose. Randomness suggests that if you've got more well rounded production spread out like that, sometimes it'll fall together and you'll get runs, and sometimes you'll strand a runner an inning. Whereas if you have bigger strikes of production, it puts runs up on the board and strands less. Every non-home run strands a runner. It dictates bullpen usage as well, which played into the run differential early. The Mets didn't score runs, so despite the game being close, lesser pitchers were brought in, putting the game out of reach. Many games where the pitching faltered put the Mets far enough behind that a run or two here and there wasn't catching them up, and Collins would use the back end of the bullpen instead of the front end. He'd take out starters early for offense. This is all without mentioning the ancillary affects of a pitcher's approach to you, even when you're slumping, if they know if they screw up you'll still crush it. Or allowing the opposing manager to keep in a righty reliever and squeak past Thole or Murphy and save the bullpen because even if they singled, they'd get the next guy. Valdespin sucks, but the value of power late in the game can't be more evident. Sometimes these quality relievers only give you one or two hittable pitches an inning. Again, I'm not advocating a one-dimensional Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn, but I think it's important to get a guy that can put up a better than average slugging percentage, and Bourn doesn't impress me. I wouldn't hesitate to predict Murphy to have a better OPS next year over Bourn either. I really, really doubt Bourn will be worth a double digit per year 4+ year deal, and I don't want the Mets to pay him that if it's going to be a tight budget.

Edgy MD Aug 28 2012 12:03 PM Re: 2013 OF options

This is way too complicated. The Mets lack production. The place they could probably use more of it is in the outfield, particularly left, where it's lack has been most acute.

metsmarathon Aug 28 2012 12:18 PM Re: 2013 OF options

i don't have the split for the exact day he was sent down, but at the end of hte first half, duda had 12 homers and 44 rbi, davis 12 and 49. at the end of the first half, duda had a higher SLG and OPS than davis. how was duda hurting hte team and davis helping? they were both hitting some homers and not much of anything else. when all your hitters are slumping, all you can do is hit the ball over hte fence, and get one run. when your hitters are good hitters, and tehy get on base and get hits, there are more of them on base to get driven in to score, be it via a home run or another lesser hit. if, htis year, the mets had been able to magically wave a wand and turn jason bay into a 5 WAR hitter, and he was able to attain those 5 WAR solely by hitting singles, the mets would likely gain 5 wins in teh standings. if hte mets were able to wave their magic wand a different way and turn jason bay into a hitter who was able to generate those 5 WAR by only hitting home runs, the mets would likely gain 5 wins in teh standings. it would take a lot more singles than home runs to total 5 wins, sure, but for a guy to net 5 WAR solely through home runs, he's going to have to set some records. my thesis remains, production, no matter how it comes, is good. one home run here and there is every bit as good as a few more singles here and there. some games the home run makes the difference. some games, the extra singles and doubles make the difference. and some games, teh run saved on defense makes teh difference. the mets need to improve. and if michael bourn is indeed a 5 WAR player, like he' is this year, then i hope hte mets do not turn a blind eye to him simply because they think they need to hit more home runs. over the course of a season, a 5 war player is going to make a difference of about 5 wins. it may not be as easy to pin down as a walk-off homer in a game where he was the only offensive production, but ove rhte course of a long season, the difference will be made, in the form of bases gained and outs avoided and runs prevented.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 28 2012 12:39 PM Re: 2013 OF options

I think that the fact that the Mets showed more patience with Davis than they did with Duda hints at the team's relative regard for the two players. I'm very curious to see what they'll do for the 2013 outfield. My guess is that Bay remains, at least for a while, as a fourth or fifth outfielder, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him released late in spring training. They'll probably cobble together a starting outfield out of three of the following: Hairston, Baxter, Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Valdespin, den Dekker and one offseason acquisition. I have to wonder who is tradeable on the Mets. Their depth seems to be with young pitching, but I suspect they won't want to part with Harvey or Wheeler. Gee would have been a good trade chip if not for that out-of-nowhere shoulder problem. Would they trade Niese? Maybe. Does Francisco have any trade value? Given how teams overvalue closers, I suppose it's possible. Murphy? I would think not as much as he did three months ago. I saw someone speculating that the Mets could trade Pelfrey, but if the Mets tender him his contract would likely be too high for a pitcher who hasn't pitched since April. Some teams may want to give Valdespin a try, but none of these guys seem like anyone who will bring back real quality.

metirish Aug 28 2012 12:45 PM Re: 2013 OF options

I guess if the Mets paid most of Francisco's salary they might be able to trade him.....owed $6 million something....so many questions going into next season. The young starting pitching that seems to be in the org makes me hopeful.

HahnSolo Aug 28 2012 12:51 PM Re: 2013 OF options

Poking around with my fantasy roster and I caught this tidbit: (Shin-Soo) Choo is unlikely to agree to a contract extension with the Indians and will likely be shopped during the offseason, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports. Any interest?

Benjamin Grimm Aug 28 2012 01:11 PM Re: 2013 OF options

How did he get that name? And what's his wife's name, and what's she like?

Swan Swan H Aug 28 2012 01:33 PM Re: 2013 OF options

Benjamin Grimm wrote: How did he get that name? And what's his wife's name, and what's she like? He got it from his parents. His wife's name is Mrs. Choo, and she likes him, Bub.

Ashie62 Aug 28 2012 11:05 PM Re: 2013 OF options

I was thinking Godzilla in left, Mothra in center for speed and Rodan in right. Now thats production.

Edgy MD Sep 26 2012 08:58 AM Re: 2013 OF options

Andy Martino, wet blanket. Mets will not pursue Upton, Bourn, other top OF this winter BY ANDY MARTINO Let's do this once, to save us a winter of speculation: B.J. Upton? No. Michael Bourn? No. Shane Victorino? No. None of these players will be a Met in 2013, according to two high-ranking team insiders. The Mets - who lost 10-6 to Pittsburgh on Tuesday, done in by the seven runs Collin McHugh allowed in 1-1/3 innings - do not view this offseason as the time to commit significant money to outfielders, so they do not expect to pursue those high-profile players. Although the front office has not finalized its offseason strategy, one source said that it was unlikely the Mets will offer any outfielder even a two-year contract. The reluctance to enter the free agent market does not preclude an offseason busy with trading. Operating on a budget that, according to sources, has not been finalized - but will be only marginally higher than this year’s approximately $90 million - GM Sandy Alderson is ready to build an outfield via the trade market. It has long been clear that nearly every Met will be a trade candidate. The outfield, along perhaps with catching, is the team’s greatest need. Neither Jason Bay nor Lucas Duda nor Mike Baxter has proven himself to be an everyday player. Andres Torres will likely be non-tendered. The Mets see Jordany Valdespin as a versatile utility player, and would like to retain free agent Scott Hairston. In the minor leagues, the club hopes that Matt den Dekker, Juan Lagares and Cesar Puello will develop into major leaguers, but expects none of those players to be ready by the spring. So the Mets will have to construct an outfield somehow this winter - but that project will require creativity, and will not include any of the hot stove’s biggest names.

metirish Sep 26 2012 09:04 AM Re: 2013 OF options

So, if the Mets are not likely according to tracksuits sources give out even two year deals for outfielders but are willing to trade for outfield help I am going guess that those players will not be on long term contracts either......it hardly inspires does it?

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 26 2012 09:05 AM Re: 2013 OF options

I still think they can get Upton.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 26 2012 09:09 AM Re: 2013 OF options

I'll betcha a Blue Smoke fried bologna sandwich and some fries to go with that that the Mets don't get Upton. I don't need Martino to tell me that ain't happening.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 26 2012 09:10 AM Re: 2013 OF options

batmagadanleadoff wrote: I'll betcha a Blue Smoke fried bologna sandwich and some fries to go with that that the Mets don't get Upton. I don't need Martino to tell me that ain't happening. You're on. The upshot is, if you win, you have to come to CitiField in 2013 to claim your prize.

Edgy MD Sep 26 2012 09:11 AM Re: 2013 OF options

Hard to see the relative downside of offering a projected starter a two-year deal. That's not a particularly common length, but they're frequently favorable to clubs.

HahnSolo Sep 26 2012 09:12 AM Re: 2013 OF options

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: I'll betcha a Blue Smoke fried bologna sandwich and some fries to go with that that the Mets don't get Upton. I don't need Martino to tell me that ain't happening. You're on. The upshot is, if you win, you have to come to CitiField in 2013 to claim your prize. And, you have to meet in the Rotunda.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 26 2012 09:12 AM Re: 2013 OF options

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: I'll betcha a Blue Smoke fried bologna sandwich and some fries to go with that that the Mets don't get Upton. I don't need Martino to tell me that ain't happening. You're on. The upshot is, if you win, you have to come to CitiField in 2013 to claim your prize.