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AL MVP vs TC

Frayed Knot Sep 19 2012 01:11 PM

There's a decent chance this year of Miguel Cabrera winning the triple crown - and then at the same time NOT being the AL MVP He's currently leading in two categories and close in the other. BA: 1st = Cabrera .333 2nd = Trout .327 HR: 1st = Hamilton 42 T-2nd = Cabrera 40 T-2nd = Encarnacion 40 RBI: 1st = Cabrera 129 2nd = Hamilton 123 But then there's Mike Trout, who certainly has the RoY sewn up but also, many still think, is the leader for MVP as well. He's right there with Cabrera in BA, has 27 HRs despite spending the first month in the minors, and is nowhere near the top in RBI mainly as the result of leading off exclusively But then Trout leads the league in both SBs (46 of 50) and in runs scored (despite the missed month) and is right up there in OBA (tied with Cabrera for 3rd at .396) He also leads the league in both WAR and Offensive WAR, is 4th in slugging (Cabrera = 1st) and 2nd (to Cabrera) in OPS And then there's the whole [crossout:w8d682v2]good[/crossout:w8d682v2] great CF vs mediocre (at best) 3Bman thing to consider. I think that, not all that long ago, winning a TC would have automatically clinched the MVP award (and probably unanimously) for whoever got it, but I'm not so sure now.

metirish Sep 19 2012 01:41 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Can you explain Edwin Encarnacion's numbers? http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ed01.shtml

Frayed Knot Sep 19 2012 01:51 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

metirish wrote: Can you explain Edwin Encarnacion's numbers? http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ed01.shtml Everything is virtually the same except that he's managed to turn about a dozen or two doubles into HRs. Nice trick if you call pull it off.

metirish Sep 19 2012 01:55 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

His name jumped out because my first thought was Juan? Hamilton will be a FA?, big payday ahead.

Vic Sage Sep 19 2012 01:58 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Hamilton will be a FA?, big payday ahead. yeah cuz there's no risk with him!

HahnSolo Sep 19 2012 02:03 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

I almost hate to imply this, but don't overlook all that scrappy white-ness Trout has.

Mets – Willets Point Sep 19 2012 02:04 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Vic Sage wrote: Hamilton will be a FA?, big payday ahead. yeah cuz there's no risk with him! "New York City will just be full of temptations for Hamilton to fall off the wagon," every ignorant sports journalist will write.

Vic Sage Sep 19 2012 02:07 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Cabrera has a small lead in OPS+ and Runs Created, but Trout has such a huge lead in WAR (10.3 to 6.3), that it would take a September collapse for Cabrera to catch him overall. And that might be happening, with Trout cooled off and Cabrera red-hot in the midst of a division & WC race. If that keeps up, Cabrera is a lock.

Vic Sage Sep 19 2012 02:13 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

HahnSolo wrote: I almost hate to imply this, but don't overlook all that scrappy white-ness Trout has. one would have to expect that, just as recent CY voting has indicated a new generation of younger writers comprise the voting majority (as demonstrated by elections of CYs with fewer wins and better SABRmetric profiles), that such new voters would be less and less influenced by the sins of their fathers. except, you know, if they're choosing between a pale scrapper and a melanin-rich malingerer...

dinosaur jesus Sep 19 2012 02:16 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Frayed Knot wrote: I think that, not all that long ago, winning a TC would have automatically clinched the MVP award (and probably unanimously) for whoever got it, but I'm not so sure now. It's hard to say what "not all that long ago" means, since no one's done it since 1967. But there have been Triple Crown winners since they started giving the MVP, and only six have won the award. In 1934 Gehrig finished fifth in the voting. Suck on it, Biscuit Pants.

Edgy MD Sep 19 2012 02:18 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

I don't trust Trout. Firstly, he has yet to face the Mets. Secondly, he's cocking himself to the left (his right) in every photo I see of him. What's that about? You want my vote, kid? I vote that you get your spine aligned.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 19 2012 02:22 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

It may have something to do with fluid in his ears.

seawolf17 Sep 19 2012 03:13 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Or maybe he just has a neck thing. DON'T MOCK THE DISABLED.

The Second Spitter Sep 19 2012 03:35 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Edgy DC wrote: I don't trust Trout. Firstly, he has yet to face the Mets. Secondly, he's cocking himself to the left (his right) in every photo I see of him. What's that about?. He's a moderate Republican?

Frayed Knot Sep 19 2012 04:49 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

dinosaur jesus wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: I think that, not all that long ago, winning a TC would have automatically clinched the MVP award (and probably unanimously) for whoever got it, but I'm not so sure now. It's hard to say what "not all that long ago" means, since no one's done it since 1967. But there have been Triple Crown winners since they started giving the MVP, and only six have won the award. In 1934 Gehrig finished fifth in the voting. Suck on it, Biscuit Pants. What I'm saying is that if someone had won the TC during a span from let's say the last one thru maybe a decade or so ago the writers would have almost automatically given him the MVP because he will have led in the only statistical categories that anyone cared about. Now-a-days I'm not so sure. BB writers are far more likely to at least consider other stats and other facets of the game before voting if not as a trump to the TC stats at least in conjunction with them. The non-baseball talking heads are already weighing in on this topic with the expected; "ya gotta give it to Cabrera!" and they'll be as confused by and dismissive of 'those baseball number geeks' if he doesn't win as they were when Felix Hernandez won the CY with his "paltry" 13 wins ... but let them squawk all they want.

Ashie62 Sep 19 2012 04:58 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

metirish wrote: Can you explain Edwin Encarnacion's numbers? http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ed01.shtml Yeah, borrowing Jose Bautista's HGH.

Edgy MD Sep 20 2012 10:01 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

As someone noted on Facebook, we are legally obligated to mention Derek Jeter in any discussion of the American League MVP.

MFS62 Sep 20 2012 10:45 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Speaking of post season kudos, MLB won't stop Melky from winning the batting title. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/b ... index.html Later

Frayed Knot Sep 25 2012 07:26 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Josh Hamilton is back after sitting out nearly a week with what was first called a sinus infection but now is described as blurry vision caused by too much caffeine and energy drinks -- is there anything that guy is NOT addicted to? -- and immediately hit his 43rd HR to re-take the AL HR lead, one ahead of Miggy Cabrera. Cabrera's RBI lead is at 9, his BA lead at .008 HR Race: Hamilton - 43 Cabrera - 42 Adam Dunn - 41 (2 last night while saving the ChiSox's bacon) Edwin Encarnacion - 41 Curtis Granderson - 40 Edgy DC wrote: As someone noted on Facebook, we are legally obligated to mention Derek Jeter in any discussion of the American League MVP. Lots of media types are making sure to mention his name as well. Hell, forget Cabrera & Trout, if Jeter gets more votes than Adam Jones the Orioles should take it to the World Court in The Hague for investigation.

Edgy MD Oct 01 2012 02:34 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Stil leading, but only his RBI title is looking safe. Batting Average: 1. Cabrera (DET) .325 2. Mauer (MIN) .323 3. Trout (LAA) .321 4. Beltre (TEX) .319 5. Jeter (NYY) .318 Home Runs T1. Hamilton (TEX) 43 T1. Cabrera (DET) 43 3. Encarnacion (TOR) 42 4. Dunn (CHW) 41 5. Granderson (NYY) 40 Runs Batted In 1. Cabrera (DET) 136 2. Hamilton (TEX) 127

Frayed Knot Oct 02 2012 07:07 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Four hits including a HR for Miggy last night Batting Average: 1. Cabrera (DET) .329 2. Trout (LAA) .325 3. Mauer (MIN) .322 4. Beltre (TEX) .319 5. Jeter (NYY) .316 Home Runs 1. Cabrera (DET) 44 2. Hamilton (TEX) 43 3. Encarnacion (TOR) 42 T4. Dunn (CHW) 41 T4. Granderson (NYY) 41 Runs Batted In 1. Cabrera (DET) 137 2. Hamilton (TEX) 127 And, with a division clinched and their playoff slot set, he's under no obligation to play in the next two days. Or maybe he'll just lay down a bunt and then sit out.

Vic Sage Oct 02 2012 10:07 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

This race is becoming a real "old school" vs "moneyball" debate. The old-schoolers are saying a triple crown for a division winner should be an automatic MVP, and the Metrics crowd poo-poos the importance of RBI (too lineup and team-dependent) and BA (doesn't measure anything well; OB% and SLG% are better), pointing to WAR instead. The facts are that (1) triple crown winners have failed to win MVPs in the past, (2) the triple crown stats are flawed and don't measure other aspects of a player's game (like Trout's excellent defense in CF and game-changing speed on the bases), (3) the triple crown is an arbitrary standard for an MVP (if Hamilton outslugs him by 1 HR, denying him the triple crown, should his case for MVP really be diminished?), and (4) while Cabrera has carried Detroit to a division title (which was partially due to a ChiSox collapse), Trout similarly turned CA's season around, having the best record in the league since his arrival, with a better record than Detroit overall. So without even getting into a debate about the utility of WAR, I would still make the case for Trout as the best overall player (not just hitter) in the AL. When you factor in his huge edge in WAR, that just verifies my estimation.

Edgy MD Oct 02 2012 10:12 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

I agree. I'm still surprised that a triple-crown winner --- which hasn't existed since I was one --- could fail to win an MVP, but the facts support it.

Frayed Knot Oct 02 2012 10:18 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Yeah, Tyler Kepner in the Times on Sunday was all over the argument that if Miggy goes TC then he should win the MVP but if not it should go to Trout. Deciding that something is so cut-and-dried based not only just on the superiority of these statistics but not those, but also on the vagaries of what various non-contenders for the MVP (Hamilton, Mauer) do in those categories is such limited thinking that, even if you want to argue in favor of Cabrera, don't do it with THAT logic.

MFS62 Oct 02 2012 10:21 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

The old stats VS valuable discussion, and the reason why the Sporting News used to (do they still?) name a "Player of the Year Award" , usually to the player with the best stats, instead of an MVP. You could say the Silver Slugger Awards do the same thing. I hate to say it, but if you take Captain Intangibles out of the Yankee lineup this year, IMO they wouldn't be anywhere close to winning their division. But if you just condider Trout and Cabrera, the record of the Halos with and without Trout in the lineup is a similar situation. Later

metsmarathon Oct 02 2012 10:22 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Batting Average: 1. Cabrera (DET) .329 2. Trout (LAA) .325 be cool if trout caught him in batting average...

Frayed Knot Oct 02 2012 10:23 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

They both got four hits last night.

Nymr83 Oct 02 2012 11:53 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Trout in a landslide imo, the defense he provides blows Cabrera away.

Vic Sage Oct 02 2012 11:58 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

MFS62 wrote: The old stats VS valuable discussion, and the reason why the Sporting News used to (do they still?) name a "Player of the Year Award" , usually to the player with the best stats, instead of an MVP. You could say the Silver Slugger Awards do the same thing. I hate to say it, but if you take Captain Intangibles out of the Yankee lineup this year, IMO they wouldn't be anywhere close to winning their division. But if you just condider Trout and Cabrera, the record of the Halos with and without Trout in the lineup is a similar situation. Later i'm not quite sure i understand your point, but if its about that notion many MVP voters have that "valuable" means the best hitter on a division winner, then i beg to disagree. "most valuable player" was a phrase created in a more genteel time; it has a literary, metaphorical quality, as was the fashion. It wasn't taken literally, beyond the notion that certainly the best player in the league would be most valuable to his team. In 1911, the first 2 MVPs, TY Cobb and Frank Schulte, both played for 2nd place teams. Even after the award changed and was taken over by the BBWAA in 1931, early winners might be found on non-1st place teams (Chuck Klein, Jimmy Foxx, Charlie Gehringer, Joe Medwick, etc.). It's only in the modern era that voters began to take that phrase literally, overlooking better players for those that were good on good teams. It's frankly moronic. Every team has an MVP; so just let the 2 pennant winners pick their own MVPs and they get the award. And we can continue to overlook the best players in the league. yeah, that's sensible. Or we can get truly literal and think of "most valuable" as that player who created the most win shares per dollar of salary. Because if "value" can't be quantified into a dollar sum, i don't know what can. ON that basis, too, i'm sure Trout beats Cabrera.

metirish Oct 02 2012 12:01 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Nymr83 wrote: Trout in a landslide imo, the defense he provides blows Cabrera away. The SNY crew are adamant that his defense will not carry him over the line...it was an interesting discussion , Ron seemed to be the one taking the lead on it......one point brought up was that Trout is not even the most feared hitter ion his own team.....it was a good talk.(anything is better that talking about the game at hand)

metsmarathon Oct 02 2012 12:20 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

and yet, trout is out-hitting the most-feared hitter on his team. albert's slash line is 0.289 / 0.347 / 0.523 good for an 0.870 OPS and a 143 OPS+ trout's slash line is a whopping 0.325 / 0.398 / 0.564 good for a 0.963 OPS and a 170 OPS+

Frayed Knot Oct 02 2012 12:23 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

"Most feared"? Probably not. But he's had a better year than the 'more feared' Pujols and that's what we're supposed to be deciding here.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 02 2012 12:25 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

2012 is Pujols' worst year ever, in a career spanning 12 full seasons. Some worst season.

Frayed Knot Oct 02 2012 12:32 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Agreed that it's a great 'worst year'. That doesn't mean we should base this year's MVP vote on the idea that the totality of his career makes him "more feared" than his younger teammate and therefore treat it as a mark against Trout. It's not as bad as those who argued for Jeter winning the MVP a few years back (2009 I think) as some sort of cumulative achievement award* even while admitting that he wasn't the best that season, but it's still not sound logic. * Let's save those for dying actors, OK?

metirish Oct 02 2012 12:34 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

The point Ron was making more strongly though was if Cabrera wins the Triple Crown then he is clearly in his opinion the overwhelming choice for MVP.....

batmagadanleadoff Oct 02 2012 12:35 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Frayed Knot wrote: Agreed that it's a great 'worst year'. That doesn't mean we should base this year's MVP vote on the idea that the totality of his career makes him "more feared" than his younger teammate and therefore treat it as a mark against Trout. It's not as bad as those who argued for Jeter winning the MVP a few years back (2009 I think) as some sort of cumulative achievement award* even while admitting that he wasn't the best that season, but it's still not sound logic. * Let's save those for dying actors, OK? I haven't been following this story. Do some writers believe that Pujols should win the 2012 MVP based on achievements from prior seasons? Not that it would surprise me.

Frayed Knot Oct 02 2012 12:41 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

No, but I've heard arguments against Trout based on the idea that, because he's teamed with Pujols, he can't be most valuable because he's not "The Man" on his own team. As Vic implies with his most recent post here: some voters and pundits seem to allow themselves to be twisted into knots digging for the most convoluted definition of MVP rather than accepting the simplest and almost certainly original intent.

Frayed Knot Oct 02 2012 12:47 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

metirish wrote: The point Ron was making more strongly though was if Cabrera wins the Triple Crown then he is clearly in his opinion the overwhelming choice for MVP..... And, on that, I disagree. Or at least I disagree with the notion that he should be the MVP solely because of that reason. I'm not dismissing pro-Cabrera arguments, just the ones which lock into that particular 'If/Then' inevitability.

Edgy MD Oct 02 2012 12:49 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Yeah, Cabrera hitting .326 vs. .328 hardly changes his case all that much.

Lefty Specialist Oct 03 2012 09:12 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Cabrera has the first Triple Crown in 45 years on a team going to the post-season. If that isn't MVP material, I don't know what is. Trout will have more chances, whereas Miggy could get into a drunken bar fight and have his hamstring severed by a broken beer bottle this winter.

metsmarathon Oct 03 2012 09:34 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

trout has the second highest OPS in the AL (naturally behind miggy), but also has the most stolen bases in the majors and plays great D. bbref has the defensive difference at over two wins. oh, he's got a higher OPS+, as his home park suppresses offense whereas miggy's boosts it. miggy's season is one for hte history books, sure, but trout's is one for the ages.

Mets – Willets Point Oct 04 2012 02:02 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Nice article on Cabrera's Triple Crown on Grantland written by an acquaintance of mine.

m.e.t.b.o.t. Oct 17 2012 10:46 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

m.e.t.b.o.t. approves. [url]http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8508692/washington-nationals-mike-trout-win-al-mvp-according-wpa-espn-magazine

Edgy MD Oct 18 2012 12:41 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

I like how the URL betrays that the original headline writer didn't know what team Trout played for.

MFS62 Oct 18 2012 01:16 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Edgy DC wrote: I like how the URL betrays that the original headline writer didn't know what team Trout played for. Maybe he was Dizzy. Later

Ceetar Oct 18 2012 01:25 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Edgy DC wrote: I like how the URL betrays that the original headline writer didn't know what team Trout played for. Trout, Harper, it's all interchangable "OMG look at what the rookie is doing!" raving. I keep looking at the title of this thread and wonder what Terry Collins has against the AL MVP.

Edgy MD Oct 18 2012 04:02 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Me too. By the way, the "not the most feared hitter on his team" argument could conceivably apply to Cabrera and Fielder, no? Most valuable --- it's not that complex.

Frayed Knot Oct 18 2012 04:40 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Smoltz was on the verge of demeaning "new age stats" in the AL MVP argument but got cut off by the 3rd out before finishing his point. Here's the part that kills me about much of that kind of discussion: the folks making it are complaining that stats are taking preference over something like the Triple Crown while seeming to be totally ignorant of the fact that the TC itself is based on nothing but stats.

Ceetar Oct 19 2012 06:56 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Frayed Knot wrote: Smoltz was on the verge of demeaning "new age stats" in the AL MVP argument but got cut off by the 3rd out before finishing his point. Here's the part that kills me about much of that kind of discussion: the folks making it are complaining that stats are taking preference over something like the Triple Crown while seeming to be totally ignorant of the fact that the TC itself is based on nothing but stats. but they like those stats better!

Frayed Knot Oct 19 2012 07:23 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Which would be fine if they'd actually say that. But instead what they do is to frame it as a contest between those who believe in the superiority of the triple crown versus those who rely on "stats", as if the former isn't a subset of the latter; or as if believing in these stats somehow automatically incorporates observational judgement stats while believing in those stats automatically excludes it ["I don't read spreadsheets, I actually watch the games!!"]. If someone wants to argue that BA/HR/RBI are better stats than the "new age" ones they're deriding then they should make THAT case rather than treating the two as if they're two wholly different approaches.

Frayed Knot Oct 19 2012 07:57 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Frayed Knot wrote: ... or as if believing in these stats somehow automatically incorporates observational judgement stats while believing in those stats automatically excludes it. I caught a radio interview with Brian Kenny (Kinney maybe?) of MLBN a few weeks back. The host, an admitted skeptic towards, or at least ignorant of, 'new stats' was given to backing Cabrera for MVP simply out of habit but, to his credit, rather than deride the whole concept he knew Kenny would present (something Benigno, Russo, Francesa would do as a reflex) he simply challenged Kenny to make his case for Trout over Cabrera despite the TC season. Naturally part of Kenny's case (his view was not only for Trout over Cabrera but said it's not even close) involved things like the superiority of Trout's defense and base-running and he had a bunch of numbers to back his point including stuff like historically good rates of going 1st-to-3rd or 2nd-to-home on hits and getting to balls in the OF, SB rates, holding runners, etc. So in the process of it all he tried to put it into terms the non-believers could accept by explaining that this was just simply all the stuff 'old school' guys always talked about when discussing how good Mays was or about how Willie's game went far beyond the traditional stats because he did so many of the "little things" in addition to being at or near the top of the league in all the traditional categories. IOW, these new metrics Kenny was backing weren't a substitute for fan/critical observations they were merely a quantifying of and support for what the anti-stats folks think is missing from the newer approaches, and that the time-honored art of of watching the subtleties of the game are quite alive and well with the new regime even as it stomps all over the lawns of the old guard.

Ashie62 Oct 19 2012 07:58 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

The metrics people shall inherit the earth..

Edgy MD Oct 20 2012 06:41 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

On-base percentage has been around forever. And it's value has been well-known, if not frequently built around. It's just resentment of the opinions of mystery outsiders like James that leads anybody to still deride it. Trout is an excellent basestealer, a wonderful baserunner, an ideal on-base man, and a very rangey defender. The idea that these things have value isn't new, isn't esoteric, isn't controversial, and certainly isn't "new age." So, if you detect a value, it's the most natural thing in the world to try and figure out an objective way to measure how much.

Frayed Knot Oct 20 2012 07:48 AM Re: AL MVP vs TC

I actually think that most insider-y baseball cover-ers, writers, and other keepers of the flame have long since come around to the idea that the TC stats and pitcher Wins aren't the alpha and omega of player evaluations. It's more the all-purpose sports guy who says, 'yeah I followed baseball as a kid but now that I'm an adult I spend all my time following sports involving players under age 21 cuz that's what we do here in Bristol, Connecticut'. Plus there's all that time needed for studying betting lines and updating fantasy football rosters so there's no time for silly little baseball. In their minds they knew everything there was to know about that sport by the time they were ten. Those were the ones most likely to have registered shock when Felix Hernandez won his CY a few years back with just 13 wins and are screaming the loudest now at even the thought of Cabrera not winning the MVP. But most in that crowd, by their own admission, have paid only passing attention to baseball in twenty years or more so they simply treat whatever changes in thinking that have taken place since then to be geeky nonsense because it puts them on the outside looking in and because it runs counter to what they knew to be true long before some of these guys telling them otherwise were even born. The good news about that crowd is that they don't vote in these things. The bad news is that they often have the loudest voices.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Oct 21 2012 08:25 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

Frayed Knot wrote: The good news about that crowd is that they don't vote in these things. You'd be shocked how much of that crowd does vote in these things... and I just don't mean "people who hew largely to the evaluative 'oldies,'" but people who pay only passing attention to baseball outside of the town/division they cover(ed), or even-- if retired-- to baseball in general.

Frayed Knot Oct 21 2012 09:14 PM Re: AL MVP vs TC

But, unlike HoF voters who, if they choose, have essentially a lifetime pass to vote once they've earned it via their ten years on the beat, the MVP/RoY/CY voters at least all come from active baseball writers (two per city). So the guy who stopped covering the sport in 1991, thinks no one is as good now as the ones he knew, when asked to name Chicago Cubs can only come up with Ryne Sandberg, and believes that Bill James and his followers are all communist agents, has no influence in post-season awards unless for some reason the current writers opt to listen to him.