Sep 22 2012 12:31 PM
Re: The Cy Young Award Watch-v2012.NL
September 22, 2012, 11:05 am
Mets’ Knuckleballer Has an Honor at His Fingertips
By TYLER KEPNER
| Terry Collins, the Mets’ manager, sat gloomily at a news conference after his team lost to Philadelphia on Monday. His staff ace, R. A. Dickey, had lost despite allowing only two earned runs in seven innings. The Mets badly want Dickey to reach 20 victories, the magic threshold for a starting pitcher. “You feel for him because all’s he’s done is give himself a chance to win baseball games,” Collins said. “We’ll go back at the end of the year and re-count the number of games he didn’t get a decision, or didn’t get a win. Hopefully, it doesn’t come back to bite him too bad.” Collins should not worry. By now, the writers who vote for the Cy Young Award understand that won-loss record, while useful for telling the story of how frustrating or rewarding a season has been, is not vital to judging who has pitched best. Three of the last six Cy Young Awards were given to pitchers with no more than 16 victories — Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke in 2009, and Felix Hernandez in 2010. Last season’s winners were easy: Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw both topped 20 wins while leading their leagues in strikeouts and earned run average. Both were unanimous selections. This season’s races are much tighter, and a crowded field of starters could allow a reliever to emerge. Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel, who had 38 saves in 41 chances, with 105 strikeouts in 571/3 innings entering Saturday, would seem to have the best chance among closers. But only one reliever has captured the award in the last 19 years, and that pitcher — Eric Gagne of the Los Angeles Dodgers, in 2003 — had to go 55 for 55 in save chances to do it. Advanced metrics value starters much more than relievers, because starters pitch so many more innings. Innings should be important to the Cy Young discussion. Pitching deep in games not only helps rest the bullpen, but projects a sense of calm to the rest of the team: It’s O.K., I’ve got this. Durability ought to count for a lot. Take Gio Gonzalez, who was 19-8 for the Washington Nationals. The record was exceptional, and his 2.95 E.R.A. was also sharp. But Gonzalez did not record an out in the eighth inning until Aug. 3. The Giants’ Matt Cain had done that 11 times, and Madison Bumgarner, Dickey, Cole Hamels and Kershaw had done that 10 times. Of course, a pitcher can labor for more than seven innings but not necessarily pitch well. So what about high-quality starts — say, starts lasting at least seven innings, with no more than three earned runs? Win or lose, almost every such start is an ace-worthy performance. Dickey and Kershaw (who is probably done for the season with a hip injury) had made 19 such starts. Cincinnati’s Johnny Cueto has made 17, and Hamels 16. Gonzalez had made only nine. From June 3 through July 19, Gonzalez never even lasted seven innings. Gonzalez, of course, is headed to the playoffs, where his relatively light workload could make him fresher than other top starters. He could win a World Series ring for his efforts, and that is the ultimate prize for a player. But the league’s highest individual pitching honor should go to Dickey. He strikes out a lot of hitters, and few reach base. Entering Saturday, he had a National League-best 2.67 E.R.A. and also led in innings, with 212. He has mastered baseball’s most unpredictable pitch, the knuckleball, and made it the most effective pitching weapon in the league. The American League race may be even closer.... |
http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/2 ... ingertips/
