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Potential Undervalued Market Inefficiences

Edgy MD Oct 30 2012 09:19 AM

A recent rumor has the Mets interested in Melky Cabrera. This certainly doesn't diminish my dim suspicion that maybe Hurricane Sandy Alderson has sought to shop in a depressed marketplace for undervalued players who have sullied themselves with PED violations, but have served their time and are now available at a fraction of the value they would be worth had they never gotten caught, or even below what they would be worth had they never used. And who knows, maybe some residual PED-related amplified ability still flows through their veins. Sort of like trying to gobble up formerly good guys who got thrown on the scrap heap after major surgery, but have hopefully put that behind them, except with a moral angle. [list]Mets Acquired in the Alderson Era with a PED Suspension in Their Backgrounds Ronny Paulino Omar Quintanilla Melky Cabrera? Mets Acquired in the Alderson Era with a Recent Career-Threatening Surgery in Their Backgrounds Taylor Buchholz Boof Bonser Chris Capuano Chris Young Taylor Tankersley Jason Isringhausen Rob Johnson Mets Acquired in the Alderson Era Who Have Switched from Pitching to Hitting or Vice-Versa Adam Loewen[/list:u] Not much of a pattern here, so let's invent one. Where do you want to the impoverished Mets to look for a new market inefficiency. Lefthanded catchers? Fat guys? Gimmicky pitchers? Ex-cons? Fantastic athletes who came late to baseball?

Mets – Willets Point Oct 30 2012 09:27 AM Re: Potential Undervalued Market Inefficiences

Edgy DC wrote: Fantastic athletes who came late to baseball? "Now batting for the Mets, Roy Hobbs."

Edgy MD Oct 30 2012 09:30 AM Re: Potential Undervalued Market Inefficiences

Maybe more like Angel Pagan.

Edgy MD Oct 30 2012 09:35 AM Re: Potential Undervalued Market Inefficiences

Two things the Mets have seemingly had their eyes on recently: [list:2k0anj21][*:2k0anj21]Players who can catch in addition to playing elsewhere around the field.[/*:m:2k0anj21] [*:2k0anj21]Former bonus babies from the foreign marketplace whose original contracts were voided due to shenanigans.[/*:m:2k0anj21][/list:u:2k0anj21]

smg58 Oct 30 2012 08:45 PM Re: Potential Undervalued Market Inefficiences

Paulino minus steroids turned out to be overvalued (at least by the Mets), and calling Quintanilla undervalued would require believing he ever had value in the first place. If they're looking for a market inefficiency, that's a dead end. As for Melky, the 2007-2010 version is worth less than what we paid Torres this past year. Give me a choice between Melky and Scott Hairston at the same price, and I take Hairston. I'd look for weak fielding catchers who can hit. (Miguel Olivo does not qualify.) Pitchers or hitters who were clearly hurt by their home park. (Scott Hairston is a good, positive example. Perhaps the Rangers would consider trading Alexei Ogando for Duda.)

Edgy MD Oct 31 2012 08:57 AM Re: Potential Undervalued Market Inefficiences

smg58 wrote: Paulino minus steroids turned out to be overvalued (at least by the Mets), and calling Quintanilla undervalued would require believing he ever had value in the first place. If they're looking for a market inefficiency, that's a dead end. I don't think that's conclusive. Colorado, for instance, has done pretty well getting production out of post-disgrace Jason Giambi for pennies on the dollar.

Ceetar Oct 31 2012 09:06 AM Re: Potential Undervalued Market Inefficiences

Edgy DC wrote: smg58 wrote: Paulino minus steroids turned out to be overvalued (at least by the Mets), and calling Quintanilla undervalued would require believing he ever had value in the first place. If they're looking for a market inefficiency, that's a dead end. I don't think that's conclusive. Colorado, for instance, has done pretty well getting production out of post-disgrace Jason Giambi for pennies on the dollar. Melky is definitely coming down in value from what he would've gotten if he hadn't missed the last 50 games. It'd be dumb not to try to take advantage of that, particularly given it's an area of need for the Mets. Grabbing him for just his 'prime' years for a reduced rate? buy buy buy.

Vic Sage Oct 31 2012 10:21 AM Re: Potential Undervalued Market Inefficiences

absolutely. His last 2 seasons have been his best, just as he's coming into his prime years, now at age 28. Now maybe his sudden improvement is due to PEDS or maybe just the natural development of a hitter at ages 26-27. Or more likely a combination of the two. In any event, its worth taking a chance to find out. He'll probably be willing to take a cheap 1-year deal just to reestablish his value, probably in the $3m-$5m range, i would guess. which is a good fit for us, given our needs in the OF.