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Thirty-Seven-Year-Old 20-Game Winners

Edgy MD Nov 27 2012 12:20 PM

In 1904, Cy Young won 26 games at the age of 37. He had 9.0 WAR. The next two years, he had 7.1 and 1.8. It's tough to sustain, that level of performance. But he found himself again, and in 1907, at the age of 40, he had 21 wins. That year, he achieved 7.3 WAR. He followed that with 9.3 and 3.0. If you guessed that he pulled it off again in 1908, you were right. In 1908, he had 21 wins again, at the age of 41. That (as noted) gave him 9.3 WAR. The next two years, he had 3.0 and 2.2. That's Cy Young --- the greatest old pitcher ever. But even he, when reaching peak performance, had trouble sustaining it, averaging a 48.4% dropoff in productivity in the two years following his 20-win seasons. Let's go on. In 1915, a 37-year-old George McConnell (who?) won 25 fluffernutting games. Twenty-five!! The next year he won four, dropping his WAR from 2.5 to 1.9. (Hmmm...) The year after that, he was done in the bigs. How did he pull that off? Well, his 25 win season happened in the Federal League, which wasn't really a major league. So, this isn't really an illustrative example at all, but I started typing before I realized that his 25 wins were in a dubious scenario. We bounce ahead to 1982. Steve Carlton won 23 games at the age of 37. He had 5.2 WAR. His next two seasons, he had 5.1 and 2.0 --- an average of a 31.7% dropoff in productivity from his 20-win season. Warren Spahn. Spahnnie. Now we're in Met territory. Warren won 23 games in 1963 at the ripe old age of 42. Of course, two were against the Mets and four against the Colts, but what an accomplishment. He wuldn't have known it, but that was good for 3.7 WAR. His next two years, he clocked in with -2.1 and 0.4, a heartbreaking 123.0% decline in productivity over the next two seasons, on average. I could go on: Phil Niekro and his knuckler, Gaylord Perry and his greaser, or Roger Clemens and his steroids, but I have a job, and I hope my point is taken. I want R.A. Dickey re-signed. I love him and want to be held by him when I cry. But any move that considers his sustained level of productivity to be locked in over even the short-term ignores history.

Chad Ochoseis Nov 27 2012 12:52 PM Re: Thirty-Seven-Year-Old 20-Game Winners

I have no clue what to do about Dickey. But before him, no pitcher in the history of the game had ever achieved his first ever 150+ IP, sub-3 ERA season at the age of 35. So the case can be made that history doesn't apply here.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 27 2012 12:54 PM Re: Thirty-Seven-Year-Old 20-Game Winners

If you can get a 22 year old centerfielder who slugs 600, then you better do that.

TheOldMole Nov 28 2012 04:31 PM Re: Thirty-Seven-Year-Old 20-Game Winners

The Colt .45s.

MFS62 Nov 29 2012 01:40 PM Re: Thirty-Seven-Year-Old 20-Game Winners

Speaking of CY Young, does the WAR statistic look even better (or worse) when you remember he played a 154 game schedule, or does the stat factor that in? Never really thought about it until this thread. Pitchers made many more starts in those days, so maybe that smooths out the number. Is there such a thing as a WAR/start or WAR/IP stat? IMO, that would be era-equalizing. Later

Ceetar Nov 29 2012 01:48 PM Re: Thirty-Seven-Year-Old 20-Game Winners

MFS62 wrote: Speaking of CY Young, does the WAR statistic look even better (or worse) when you remember he played a 154 game schedule, or does the stat factor that in? Never really thought about it until this thread. Pitchers made many more starts in those days, so maybe that smooths out the number. Is there such a thing as a WAR/start or WAR/IP stat? IMO, that would be era-equalizing. Later WAR is all about era-equalizing. and it's a cumulative thing. so more starts=more WAR (unless you have an Ollie P start I guess..) And there's a lot of park-adjusting/league-adjusting stuff tossed in too.

Edgy MD Nov 29 2012 01:48 PM Re: Thirty-Seven-Year-Old 20-Game Winners

I don't want to make too much out of WAR itself, because I don't mean to use it to compare different pitchers across generations, but rather particular pitchers (37-year-old 20-game winners) to themselves over the next two seasons.

MFS62 Nov 29 2012 01:53 PM Re: Thirty-Seven-Year-Old 20-Game Winners

Edgy MD wrote: I don't want to make too much out of WAR itself, because I don't mean to use it to compare different pitchers across generations, but rather particular pitchers (37-year-old 20-game winners) to themselves over the next two seasons. Yes, and Ceetar's explanation made that comparison clearer. Later

metsmarathon Nov 29 2012 03:02 PM Re: Thirty-Seven-Year-Old 20-Game Winners

using bbref: cy young's war/9ip in the year in question: 0.213 dickey's: 0.216 for fun: pud galvin in his wacky 19.9 war, 636 inning campaign way back in 1884: 0.282 gooden's in 84: 0.388 pedro in 2000 (11.4 war in a scant 217 innings): 0.472 - crazy good!