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Prospect Lists 2012-13

Frayed Knot Dec 17 2012 01:30 PM

It's that time of year again. And by nice coincidence, several of the major sites that follow such stuff all have their NYM lists popping out at about the same time. BA came out on Friday with its usual Top-10 list along with some 'best' categories and various long-term (and highly speculative) lineup projections. The downside is that their list is just an ordinal reading with little basis for comparison among each NYM prospect much less compared to the league as a whole, and that their on-line discussion plus scouting reports are available only to subscribers. John Sickels unveiled his list this morning and takes the liberty of assuming that the Dickey deal goes through so treats both d'Arnaud & Syndergaard as if already NYM property. He also includes a thumbnail sketch of his top 20 with grades, plus an overall review of the system as a whole. That the comments section below featuring the prospect nerds who frequent his place spends most of its time arguing over who wasn't included on the list but should have been is a mostly good sign IMO. Nothing worse than straining just to include 20 worthwhile subjects. Excerpts: 1) Travis D'Arnaud, C, Grade A-: Borderline B+. He's not perfect, but D'Arnaud is either the best catching prospect in baseball or the second-best behind Mike Zunino. Could use a bit more polish with his throwing and his plate discipline and immediate stardom is unlikely, but overall he's the complete package. Don't expect him to be Mike Piazza, but he should be a long-term solution. 2) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+. Aside from some control wobbles in Triple-A, he had a terrific year. Projects as a number two starter. Can he duplicate what Matt Harvey did? It's possible. 3) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+. He's ahead of where Wheeler was at age 20. Strong sinking fastball, good changeup, breaking stuff coming around, solid command, good body, good makeup, strong sabermetric profile. Just needs to stay healthy. I like him more than many people do, but I really like him. Baseball Prospectus has the Mets next on their list so I expect to see that in the next day or two, although they too will hide most of the guts behind their pay wall.

Edgy MD Dec 17 2012 01:47 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

What's interesting is Mejia is either forgotten, dismissed, or considered graduated from prospect status. Hard to figure out what kind of asset he is at this point.

Frayed Knot Dec 17 2012 02:34 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Mejia, with 140 days of ML experience, is considered graduated out of the prospect realm. As, obviously, is Harvey. I think Sickels mentions Mejia in response to a question somewhere in the comments section of his piece if you feel like wading through all the petty discussions to find it. But, yeah, I don't have a good handle on where he is or where I think he's going either at this point.

Edgy MD Dec 17 2012 02:46 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

I have him slated for the 2013 bullpen, but he could he's either a starter or reliever, in Las Vegas or New York, and he's either good or bad. No possibility seems more likely than the other.

Frayed Knot Dec 18 2012 07:29 AM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

BP weighs in: Wheeler d'Arnaud Syndergaard Fullmer Flores Cecchini Tapia Familia Nimmo Montero And a composite of sorts among the three lists (BA, BP & Sickels) 1 - Wheeler 2 - d'Arnaud 3 - Syndergaard 4 - Flores 5 - Fullmer 6 - Cecchini 7 - Nimmo 8 - Familia 9 - Montero 10 - Mateo 11 - Tapia 12 - Mozzoni The good news, much better depth and overall quality. The bad news, 8 of the 12 are RHPs and, of the hitters, only d'Arnaud and (maybe late in the season) Flores have a shot at contributing to the big club this year - or even next year for that matter.

Edgy MD Dec 18 2012 08:21 AM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Only one from the dazzling 2012 Brooklyn rotation of Cessa/Ynoa/Lara/Mateo/Robles/Hilario. Were they all pitching below their age level or something? Robles had a WHIP of 0.784. He's given up three homers in 235.1 innings as a professional, and none in 72.2 innings last year. Plus, wherever he went in Brooklyn, he left a trail of crumbs. What's a guy gotta do?!

Frayed Knot Dec 18 2012 08:42 AM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Which all goes to show the limitations of a small and purely ordinal list. Some years there might only be six or seven worthy candidates on a top-10, others there could be fourteen or fifteen deserving ones. Sickels mentions several of your crew: Lara, Robles, Ynoa, along with Ceciliani & Matt Reynolds under his "other C+" players at the end of his top-20 -- and remember that he considers a C+ grade to denote an above average prospect. Again, that those guys didn't make the cut even on his longer list is a tribute to a deeper system and if you're forced to leave some of those similar type players off you start with those further down the totem pole. One of the reasons I like reading Sickels about this sort of stuff (even though his site is filled with fantasy geeks) is that, rather than pretending that a list putting player A above B nails him as unarguably better, he'll admit that many of the players in the fat part of the curve are pretty much interchangeable and not to take the exact order too seriously.

Vic Sage Dec 18 2012 12:41 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Edgy MD wrote: What's interesting is Mejia is either forgotten, dismissed, or considered graduated from prospect status. Hard to figure out what kind of asset he is at this point. in the comments section, Sickels is asked about Mejia, and he says that, if he were still eligible, he'd rate him a C+ type prospect. For what that's worth.

Edgy MD Dec 18 2012 12:58 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

A lot, I think. Very curious to see if he's looking like a starter or a penboy at the start of spring training.

Edgy MD Dec 26 2012 10:34 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Hey, Cover Boy!

Frayed Knot Jan 29 2013 08:31 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

The first of the Top-100 lists are out with Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com revealing his: Noah Syndergaard #29 Zack Wheeler #8 Travis d'Arnaud #6 I'm surprised to see d'Arnaud up [u:22ymud9l]THAT[/u:22ymud9l] high. I was expecting maybe high-teens/lower-20s No other NYMs in top 100

Edgy MD Jan 30 2013 03:01 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Pretty staggering to think that, had the seemingly trade-averse Alderson not made those two big deals he did, the Mets would (or so it seems) have been shut out of the top 100.

Frayed Knot Jan 30 2013 05:00 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Yup, this list anyway. I suspect Flores might get himself onto the back end of some lists this winter - but certainly all our top guys this year came via the trade route. Of course one could also argue that had Santana & Gee not gone out at virtually the same time then Harvey wouldn't have been called up so early and so he'd be near the top of the prospect pile heading into this season. Such are the fickle nature of these lists. FWIW, John Sickels ranked the Mets as having the 12th best system this year although admitting at the same time that he finds such ordinal lists to be of dubious help at best.

Edgy MD Jan 30 2013 06:43 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Oh, sure, that's why I qualify with "seemingly." Santana and Gee and Pelfrey don't all go down, maybe the season isn't lost. Maybe Harvey gets held back. Maybe Dickulous doesn't get traded.

Frayed Knot Feb 19 2013 10:43 AM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Frayed Knot wrote: The first of the Top-100 lists are out with Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com revealing his: Noah Syndergaard #29 Zack Wheeler #8 Travis d'Arnaud #6 Baseball America: Wheeler = #11 d'Arnaud = #23 Syndergaard = #54

Edgy MD Feb 19 2013 10:53 AM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

I figure d'Arnaud being a catcher with knee injury history should curb at least a little of anybody's ranking enthusiasm for him.

Frayed Knot Feb 19 2013 01:32 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

A little bit anyway, although folks should take note as to whether the injuries are flukey or look like they're leaning toward chronic. This catcher prospect smackdown discusses his strengths, weaknesses and injuries in conjunction with those of Seattle prospect Mike Zunino. Those two are considered the best catching prospects right now, in which order is subject to discussion.

Edgy MD Feb 19 2013 01:42 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

I figure that no knee injury ever completely disappears from a guy's ledger.

Ashie62 Feb 19 2013 04:38 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

I'm more concerned about D'Arnauds disc issue from 2010. I hope these injuries aren't the reason the kid is on his third organization at such a young age.

Frayed Knot Feb 19 2013 09:15 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Ashie62 wrote: I'm more concerned about D'Arnauds disc issue from 2010. I hope these injuries aren't the reason the kid is on his third organization at such a young age. Considering that the two times he's been traded have both been for CY award winners it's not exactly like he's being dumped like last night's fish leftovers. Besides, a decent pct of the prospects who do make it do so in their 2nd or 3rd organization.

Ashie62 Feb 20 2013 12:04 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

I'd like to see D'Arnaud prosper as a leadoff hitter..

Edgy MD Feb 20 2013 12:09 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

I'd like to see Niese prosper as a cleanup hitter, too, but the number of catchers who've prospered from the leadoff position to any degree is about as high as the number of lefthanded starting pitchers who turned into sluggers batting fourth.

Ashie62 Feb 20 2013 12:12 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Thats why it would be such an edge...Didn't Stearns do it???

Edgy MD Feb 20 2013 12:23 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

He certainly could have, at least on occasion, but no, he never did. Not even once, according to the IMDB. Jason Kendall is pretty much the only catcher in history to gain any traction as a leadoff hitter. [list]Catchers with 20 or More Games Batting Leadoff in a Season 119 Jason Kendall 2004 90 Jason Kendall 2006 75 Jason Kendall 2005 52 Jason Kendall 2001 51 Jason Kendall 2002 43 Rollie Hemsley 1939 32 Paul Lo Duca 2001 29 Butch Wynegar 1980 24 Kurt Suzuki 2008 20 Russell Martin 2008 17 Russell Martin 2010[/list:u] Considering nothing in the scouting reports indicates that his speed is any better than typical for a catcher, and his plate discipline is behind his other batting skills, I think it's a safe bet to say that you're gonna be disappointed if you're hoping for him to prosper in that role.

Ashie62 Feb 20 2013 05:30 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

How about a nice career as a plus bat Catcher. Paul LoDuca led of for the Mets briefly, and this Travis? Well, he is no LoDuca!

Edgy MD Feb 20 2013 06:00 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Lo Duca never batted leadoff for the Mets either. But yeah, if d'Arnaud maximizes what he is, we're in good shape.

Ashie62 Feb 20 2013 07:39 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

[url]http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7999 Catchers batting leadoff..

Frayed Knot Feb 25 2013 02:36 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Baseball Prospectus: Zack Wheeler - 6 Travis d'Arnaud - 15 Noah Syndergaard - 28 Michael Fullmer - 98

smg58 Feb 25 2013 07:15 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Ashie62 wrote: Thats why it would be such an edge...Didn't Stearns do it??? After looking back at his stats a couple of weeks ago, I wouldn't argue with anybody who said that Stearns ought to have led off.

Nymr83 Feb 26 2013 07:04 AM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

interesting that BP has Fullmer, a guy I've never even heard of, 98th overall while having Nimmo as the Mets' 9th best prospect while Law has Nimmo 4th and barely missing his top 100 and doest even mention Fullmer.

Edgy MD Feb 26 2013 07:23 AM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Time for you to adopt Sally League Sexpot Michael Fulmer.

Frayed Knot Feb 26 2013 07:31 AM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

The best explanation is: opinions vary. Fulmer (spelled with one L) is a RHP out of an Oklanhoma HS who was the 44th overall draft pick the same year Nimmo was 13th (2011). That he was a compensation pick from the Yanquis in exchange for their signing of Pedro Feliciano makes his progress a win-win-win situation so far. But once you get to that part of the list you're really just hair-splitting anyway. I'm sure someone else could make the argument that Nimmo deserves to be on the inside of the top-100 and Fulmer outside and it's not like it's going to make any difference.

Frayed Knot Mar 13 2013 02:28 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

John Sickels pre-season prospects list. d'Arnaud = 13th Wheeler = 15 Syndergaard = 22 Fulmer = 86 Flores = 118

Frayed Knot Mar 13 2013 03:14 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

A composite list of best overall prospects headed into this season based on five different ones I followed this winter: BA, BP, MLB.com (J. Mayo), ESPN (K. Law), Sickels 1 - Jurickson Profar - SS, Rangers -- Saw ML action late last year and will probably be starting SS from opening day 2 - Oscar Tavares - OF, Cardinals -- Played in AA in 2012; will probably see the big club before the year is out even though he doesn't turn 21 until June. 3 - Dylan Bundy - RHP, Orioles -- 4th overall draft pick in 2011 out of HS in Oklahoma, pitched in low-A, high-A, AA last season plus 5 late season innings for the O's 4 - Wil Myers - OF, Rays -- 3rd round pick (as a catcher) by KC in 2009. Strictly an OF now, was dealt to the Rays over the winter after being briefly linked in rumors to Dickey deals. Either starts the year in Tampa or gets there as soon as they can delay his arb & FA 5 - Gerrit Cole - RHP, Pirates -- #1 overall pick out of UCLA in 2011 (3 years after spurning the Yanx' late 1st-round pick out of HS), will probably start the year in AAA 6 - Jose Fernandez - RHP, Marlins -- 14th overall pick in 2011 (1 slot after B. Nimmo) out of a Tampa-area HS, reached high-A last season and won't turn 21 until late in the year 7 - Xander Bogaerts - SS, Red Sox -- Signed out of Aruba, reached AA as a 19 y/o in 2012 8 - Zack Wheeler - RHP, Mets 9 - Taijuan Walker - RHP, Mariners -- 1st round Supp (43rd overall) pick in 2010 out of Calif HS; played in AA at age 19 and then was fake traded this winter before Justin Upton nixed the deal. 10 - Miguel Sano - 3B, Twins -- 19 y/o (20 in May) Dominican prospect with big power projections. Probably slated for high-A to start 2013 11 - Tyler Scaggs - LHP, DBacks -- No, not a country music star, but the 1st round supp pick (#40) in 2009 by the Angels who was then dealt to Arizona for Dan Haren just a year later. Made six ML starts at the end of 2012 and one would assume he's there for good now 12 - Christian Yelich, OF, Marlins -- 21 y/o; 1st round HS pick in 2010 (23rd); looks to be headed to AA this year 13 - Travis d'Arnaud - C, Mets 14 - Shelby Miller - RHP, Cards -- 1st round HS pick in 2009, got two ML starts at the end of last season 15 - Jameson Taillon - RHP, Pirates -- 2nd overall pick out of HS in 2010; pitched most of last season in high-A at age 20 16 - Billy Hamilton - OF, Reds -- Record-breaking speedster is being converted from 2B to CF. Split 2012 between high-A & AA 17 - Francisco Lindor - SS, Indians -- 8th overall pick from Florida HS in 2011; pitched in low-A last season 18 - Trevor Bauer - RHP, Indians -- 3rd overall pick in 2011 by Arizona out of UCLA, was (to the surprise of many) dealt away this winter to Cleveland where he could start the season 19 - Byron Buxton - OF, Twins -- #2 overall pick just last June, then got 165 ABs in Rookie ball (GCL & Appy) 20 - Mike Zunino - C, Mariners -- 3rd round pick from U-Florida last June. Looks to begin 2013 in AA ------------------------------ 21 - Javier Baez - SS, Cubs 22 - Carlos Correa - SS, Astros 23 - Kevin Gausman - RHP, Orioles 24 - Archie Bradley - RHP, DBacks 25 - Anthony Rendon - 3B, Nationals 26 - Addison Russell - SS, A's 27 - Albert Almora - OF, Cubs 28 - Jonathan Singleton - 1B, Astros 29 - Kyle Zimmer - RHP, Royals 30 - Carlos Martinez - RHP, Cardinals 31 - Jackie Bradley - OF, Red Sox 32 - Mike Olt - 3B, Rangers 33 - Jorge Soler - OF, Cubs 34 - Nick Castellanos - 3B, Tigers 35 - Julio Teheran - RHP, Braves 36 - Danny Hultzen - LHP, Mariners 37 - Aaron Sanchez - RHP, Blue Jays 38 - Chris Archer - RHP, Rays 39 - Gary Sanchez - C, Yankees 40 - Noah Syndergaard - RHP, Mets

Frayed Knot Jul 19 2013 08:50 AM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

John Sickels updates his pre-season Top-150 prospects list with a mid-season Top-75 Wheeler (15th pre-season) is eliminated from the list on the basis of being on his way to losing his eligibility status. Syndergaard, Montero and Flores move up while d'Arnaud loses ground on account of not playing enough this year. Syndergaard (22nd pre-season to 11th) -- JS: His breaking ball looks good enough to me. The stats are there, the stuff is there, the body is there. Montero (previously unranked to 50th) -- has boosted his stock by maintaining command in Double-A and not getting killed after moving up to Triple-A Las Vegas. Flores (118th to 71st) -- Las Vegas inflates his numbers to some extent, but I think he continues to make steady progress. d'Arnaud (13th to 22nd) -- Staying healthy is a tool (or a skill); either way it is a factor, especially for a player in a demanding defensive position.

Edgy MD Jul 19 2013 08:54 AM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Pickles wrote: d'Arnaud (13th to 22nd) -- Staying healthy is a tool (or a skill); either way it is a factor, especially for a player in a demanding defensive position. I think the word he's looking for is "trait."

Frayed Knot Aug 02 2013 10:00 AM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

John Sickels does his Prospects in Review for the Mets. This is not a new list or even a new order, it's his pre-season list with progress/updates noted with a half+ season's worth of new info.

Ashie62 Aug 02 2013 04:48 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Not Exactly bullish on #1's Nimmo and Cecchini....

Frayed Knot Aug 02 2013 06:06 PM Re: Prospect Lists 2012-13

Ashie62 wrote: Not Exactly bullish on #1's Nimmo and Cecchini.... At the moment there's no reason for him to be. But remember that they are 20 & 19 years old; that he does have some good things to say about Nimmo; that they both play in pitchers parks (Nimmo is hitting nearly 100 pts higher on the road); and that their roads have many journeys yet to go.