Master Index of Archived Threads
Most Hated Shortstop in Met History
Most Hated Mets Shortstop
Ron Gardenhire | 1 votes |
Kazuo Matsui | 1 votes |
Rey Ordonez | 18 votes |
Other | 6 votes |
mlbaseballtalk Dec 13 2005 04:43 PM |
Thinking about the Ron Gardenhire entry in UMDB where the memory writer says he heard Ed Randall describe, laughably, the current Twin manager as "a beloved former Met" (also I think Topps has Gardenhire in their "All Time Fan Favorite" sets but to be fair he only played MLB as a Met, never as a Twin) and it kind of dawned on me that Gardenhire kind of was the Kaz Matsui/Rey Ordonez of his day. Probably not as heavily promoted though.
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ScarletKnight41 Dec 13 2005 04:45 PM |
I loved Gardenhire. He signed a ball for me during 1985 spring training, and his enthusiasm for the game and for the Mets was wonderful. He was a nice guy - definitely not worthy of hatred.
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DocTee Dec 13 2005 04:53 PM |
I voted other, since I detest Jose Oquendo.
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Zvon Dec 13 2005 04:56 PM |
Jeeze...wheres the love for Rey?
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Zvon Dec 13 2005 04:58 PM Re: Most Hated Shortstop in Met History |
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oh,...there was that....
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 13 2005 05:02 PM |
Hate is an ugly emotion.
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KC Dec 13 2005 05:15 PM |
I voted for Rey, but the description leaves a lot to be desired. Rey played
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MFS62 Dec 13 2005 05:21 PM |
I voted "other" and was thinking of Al Moran as soon as I read the title of the thread.
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metirish Dec 13 2005 05:24 PM |
I voted "other" but couldn't name any SS I hate...Kurt Abbott, Mike Bordick, Joe Mc...nah, as for Rey I admit when I first started following the Mets I loved Rey, I was amazed by what he could do with the glove, as time went on I became frustrated with his lack of skills with the bat...still he was one of the first Mets that was a fave so I like him....I've gotten over ripping the fans.
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Edgy DC Dec 13 2005 06:44 PM |
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TheOldMole Dec 13 2005 06:53 PM |
I don't think I've ever hated a Mets shortstop.
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Valadius Dec 13 2005 07:09 PM |
Hated? No.
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vtmet Dec 13 2005 07:18 PM |
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I just saw the Ambler Rey Ordonez Death Watch article the other day for the first time (ok, I must not keep up with everything that has ever happened at the MOFO apparently)...that was one of the funniest things ever...Ambler doesn't really look like that guy in that article, does he?
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KC Dec 13 2005 07:24 PM |
Yeah, that's really him.
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Elster88 Dec 13 2005 07:37 PM |
I hate Kevin Elster.
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Nymr83 Dec 13 2005 08:00 PM |
how about Mike Bordick? Ordonez gets hurt and everyone is all like "wow this guy is great, he's the savior, he can hit" and he came here and laid an egg.
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cooby Dec 13 2005 08:05 PM |
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I'm with old mole. How can you hate a shortstop? They are too little.
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Zvon Dec 13 2005 09:06 PM |
great pic Edge.
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Elster88 Dec 13 2005 09:44 PM |
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I don't think anyone who had a clue was "like" this.
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Nymr83 Dec 13 2005 11:04 PM |
everyone was saying it at the time, the Mets got him mid year while he was having an amazing season with the Orioles--
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 05:31 AM |
A HBP didn't help his postseason any. I think he had a broken threumb or something.
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Elster88 Dec 14 2005 06:58 AM |
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Who are you referring to? If you're talking about WFAN callers, then what I said still stands: Anyone who had a clue didn't say this.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 07:14 AM |
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Elster, there are amnesiacs here who'll deny it, I expect, but Rey had dozens of vociferous defenders on the old MOFO. I probably have a few Rey/anti-Rey threads saved on my hard drive, but take my word for it, some of these nutjobs made Rey into one of the Mets' most indispensible players, maintained that his hitting was eminently acceptable in the context of his great glove work, that Rey was underappreciated, that he was a much better hitter most people thought, etc. And, far from KC's memory, I freely conceded that Rey was a fabulous defender. My argument was that he could be the best defensive player in baseball, and might well be, but since the value of defensive play was limited, he was an overall drag on the Mets and was getting many more innings than his overall play warranted. I thought rey would have been fine as defensive replacement and utility infielder and that Bobby V. made a huge mistake in slotting him in as a regular shortstop.
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Elster88 Dec 14 2005 07:26 AM |
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I was challenging Nymr's contention that "everyone" was calling Mike Bordick a savior. I doubt anyone was foolish enough to put the words "savior" and "Bordick" in the same sentence. Not saying anything about Rey here or what people thought about Rey.
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 07:27 AM |
I've never had trouble remembering that I was romanced by Rey-O's glove and acrobatics to the point where I argued pretty hard for his retention. My feeling was that Rey given the chance could improve his hitting to the point where he'd be around average at his position, and that his athletic ability asnd eye-hand in the field indicated he could.
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 07:33 AM |
I thought Bordick was a no-brainer, especially after the Larkin deal fell through (Phillips deserves credit for trying there: I think with Larkin we could have won us the WS that year).
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metirish Dec 14 2005 07:36 AM |
I agree with Dickshot, Bordick was a solid pick up at the time, didn't he hit a homer in his first AB?..
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Benjamin Grimm Dec 14 2005 07:38 AM |
I was also glad to get Bordick, although the word "savior" never crossed my mind. I had really grown to dislike Rey Ordonez, and was happy to get a veteran to bridge the gap between Rey and Alex Rodriguez, who everyone just knew would be a Met in 2001.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 07:42 AM |
Sorry, Elster, misread the context of that quote.
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Elster88 Dec 14 2005 07:44 AM |
I don't know why I enjoy reading old forum threads when I wasn't even a participant. You should pop those into the archives, Bret.
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 08:14 AM |
Behold now as Johnny Dickshot creates poetry using only capitalized words from Ms. Met's posts:
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Vic Sage Dec 14 2005 08:19 AM |
Tony Fernandez
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Centerfield Dec 14 2005 08:25 AM |
I've never hated a Mets shortstop, but I can't imagine anyone getting more abuse than Rey.
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Vic Sage Dec 14 2005 08:26 AM |
i miss the days of clubbing Ms. Met like a baby seal...
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 08:31 AM |
Amazin. That was almost 6 years ago!
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KC Dec 14 2005 08:38 AM |
>>>And, far from KC's memory, I freely conceded that Rey was a fabulous defender.<<<
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TheOldMole Dec 14 2005 08:41 AM |
I liked Rey. He gave us some amazing defense, and I'm not too upset by someone saying something dumb in a moment of anger.
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 08:46 AM |
Besides, the Met fans are stupid comment came in response to a question about fans booing Mike Piazza.
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Elster88 Dec 14 2005 08:54 AM |
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WTF? Who clubs baby seals?!? Do you stomp on kittens for a change of pace?
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 08:55 AM |
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Getting me to admit something that I freely conceded any time anyone asked isn't such a trick. The real underlying problem (that I argue persists to this day) is that for his last couple of seasons, Rey's playing time was dictated by his contract and the Mets' refusal to concede that they made a mistake in signing him to it. Before contracts got so pricey, it wasn't uncommon (especially under such managers as Stengel, Weaver, Herzog and the like) simply to bench your $40,000 shortstop to play a $15,000 rookie if the $40,000 guy wasn't giving what you needed at bat. It still required a complete set of testicles to do so, and some judgment as to the rookie's ability, but if a guy wasn't performing adequately, he sat, sometimes for a while, sometimes for a career. I was disappointed that Bobby V. lacked the stones to play Rey in proportion to his actual skills. That, and the same problem with his closer (in an earlier day, when a star closer had a few bad games, you'd pitch him in middle relief for a few weeks until the fans were yelling "Hey, give Mando a shot again--he couldn';t be worse than THESE clowns") but he wouldn't buck the prevailing values of the 21st Century, and for that I felt sadly he had to go. That what I felt let down by, Mole.
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Benjamin Grimm Dec 14 2005 08:58 AM |
I remember thinking the same thing about George Foster way back when. He stayed in the lineup longer than he would have if his salary was lower.
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KC Dec 14 2005 08:58 AM |
I'm convinced there is a web-site for just about everything ...
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Elster88 Dec 14 2005 08:59 AM |
LOL. Beautiful.
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KC Dec 14 2005 09:07 AM |
>>>Getting me to admit something that I freely conceded any time anyone asked isn't such a trick.<<<
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 09:22 AM |
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You're not truly insolent unless you call me "dude" with that "Whatever." Doesn't have the same bracing sting. Ask me to concede part of your list. You may be surprised by how easily certain concessions will be granted. One reason I like reviewing these old Rey and Mando issues is that, perhaps foolishly, I think that after the furor and the defensive arguments die down a bit, we can actually examine the mistakes the Mets made way back when. At the time, as now, people had a very hard time granting that the Mets made any grievous errors in judgment, but now that that concession isn't so hard to wring out of people, I believe maybe we can judge things like maximum contract length for a mediocre player, tolerable and intolerable performances from your closer, etc. This would be a great time for such a discussion, now that Wagner has yet to blow his first game for the Mets. If a blown save in every ten save situations is acceptable to you, then say so, and stay out of Wagner's face as long as his BS/S ratio is under 10%. Hysterical over-reactions in the heat of the moment start more pointless discussions than anything else.
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Vic Sage Dec 14 2005 09:29 AM |
Hey, BS (I love calling you that!), doesn't this remind you of all those pointless debates where we were actually on the same side of the argument?
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 10:33 AM |
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Fine with me, so long as we use the same perspective on the solutions and other options available at the time. For example, you profess wonder that Valentine went with Ordonez for so long -- yet do so without addressing the fact that his available alternatives for the most part sucked bhmc too. I don't mean to step on your point that Rey-o's salary, post the re-sign, and the expectations related to it were a reason he got the opportunities he did. Bigger picture, the Mets in his era were often guilty of a thin farm system and inadequate bench, which made continuing to play disappointing players often the only alternative in spite of their struggles.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 10:45 AM |
Sure. But if something's not working, it's not working. If I sell you a big bag of shit and assure you "It's really delicious" and you get get home and unwrap it and discover it's not as delectible as you'd believed, do you decide to eat it anyway because you paid a lot of money for it? Do you throw it away and go without lunch because you spent your lunch money already?
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 10:47 AM |
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Ahem.
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RealityChuck Dec 14 2005 10:53 AM |
Jose Oquendo
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Benjamin Grimm Dec 14 2005 10:55 AM |
Also, they were winning with Rey. Almost a wild card in 1998, NLCS in 1999.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 11:02 AM |
You know, I'll bet if you could get Bobby into a private conversation at this point, he'd express regrets that he didn't bench Rey and get Phillips and Doublepon angry. If he'd have started Desi Relaford or Marco Scutaro for a few weeks, and told Phillips and the press, "Rey's not hitting, time to try something new," and stuck to it, I can't see the Mets' w-l record having been much worse than it was, and maybe they would have gotten him a better shortstop. Because he DIDN'T act confrontationally, the status quo prevailed.
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 11:16 AM |
I see your point, though in the same private conversation, BV would also admit that both Relaford and Scutaro would be inadequate shortstops for a pennant contender, and that losing Relaford's versatility while placing a bad hitter who only plays one position on the bench would also not serve the goal of contending.
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KC Dec 14 2005 11:26 AM |
What about the .8756 runs per game that Rey Rey saved vs. Scutaro's
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 11:41 AM |
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Good question. But Phillips just flatly predicted that Rey would develop batting skills, and rode that horse into the ground. I'm not sure that there is a timetable, as much as I am sure that you decide what the timetable is in this case and stick to it, instead of just deciding that you'll stick with Rey indefinitely.
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MFS62 Dec 14 2005 11:45 AM |
Maybe they wanted to see how long his one home run per year streak would last?
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Willets Point Dec 14 2005 11:49 AM |
Dear God, the Great Rey Debates rear their ugly head again.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 11:49 AM |
NY Post 5/19/2000
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Elster88 Dec 14 2005 11:50 AM |
Better to debate Rey than to argue over who is the most hated whatever.
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KC Dec 14 2005 11:57 AM |
Bret, do you have the thread that broke the news that Rey was re-signed
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 11:58 AM |
Well, this is all support for my vote: "Rey, hands-down, no one else is even close."
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Hillbilly Dec 14 2005 12:02 PM I voted 'other' |
Hubie Brooks almost killed me once!! My buddies and I were leaving Shea when my friend yells out ‘look out for that BMW!!!” While driving out of the way I could see a terrified Hubie behind the wheel. It was late in 1984 in one his maybe two dozen starts at shortstop. So it’s got to be him on top of my most hated list for being there when my drunk-ass stumbled in front of his car. The nerve of that bastard!!
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KC Dec 14 2005 12:04 PM |
Edgy almost killed me in a similar manner once.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 12:11 PM |
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I don't think I'd started archiving yet. The earliest threads I have date from the early 2000 season, I think.
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 12:14 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 14 2005 12:16 PM |
Heavily Edited (see below)
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Frayed Knot Dec 14 2005 12:14 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 14 2005 12:27 PM |
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What exactly do you expect a GM to say publicly about the SS he just signed to a 4-year deal? "Y'know, he really suxx ... and I truly expect he always will. Can't play, never could" You're treating this as "proof" of something when evidence that would say the opposite is non-existent virtually by definition. Rey's deal came after his best season when there was a plausible reason to believe that he was an improving player. It was one of 3 deals that SP handed out to arb-eligible players (Fonz & Mando were the others) in order to gain "cost certainty" throughout the arb-years and maybe the 1st FA year. He got good value on the two and missed on the 3rd. Going in to 2000, MLB was probably at it's most highly inflationary period (where you always like to lock in costs now "knowing" that it'll only cost you more later) since the beginning of the FA period in the late '70s. The problem with Rey was that - within months of signing the deal - not only did he "age" 1--1/2 years (birth cerrt discrepancy), stop improving, and miss 100+ games with a broken wrist, but the market actually reversed itself and became DEflationary for the first time in years; a condition which lasted until just about a year ago. Phillips bet on an improving player and an inflationary market and got neither.
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 12:21 PM |
rewritten from above avi'd post, I had my years wrong.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 12:34 PM |
My complaint is mostly with how long it took for Phillips to move off "Rey's a MLB hitter, and he's getting better, I just know it" pap to "Uh, we have a real problem here, we need to deal with it realistically, and not as we wish it would be." Far as I know, he never really moved off that all, so I hold him responsible for making an extravagant judgment that turned out to be costly and ruinous.
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Benjamin Grimm Dec 14 2005 12:43 PM |
I remember my disbelief when Ordonez got that contract. Again, the conventional wisdom, such as it was, was that the Mets were a year away from signing Alex Rodriguez as a free agent. My fear was that a commitment to Ordonez meant a lack of interest in Rodriguez.
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 12:51 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 14 2005 12:51 PM |
After 99 the Mets had 3 options eessentially:
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Iubitul Dec 14 2005 01:08 PM |
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Ah yes. Tony "I'll start trying when I get to Toronto" Fernandez.....
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Frayed Knot Dec 14 2005 01:36 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 14 2005 01:54 PM |
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Not suggesting that Phillips be let off the hook here. He backed the wrong horse, at the wrong time, with the wrong deal. btw, my objection to the deal at the time was the "backloadedness" of it which - when combined with the market correction - made the 3rd & 4th years of the deal even worse to deal with. $4+mil/year was bad enough, but when it was structured as more like $2 + $4 + $6 + $6, it made disposing of the contract even more problematic.
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Nymr83 Dec 14 2005 01:44 PM |
yes he did, BUT all GMs are going to make mistakes (hey Billy hows Hatteberg doing? Theo, Renteria?) the question is what do you do about those mistakes once you've made them.
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Frayed Knot Dec 14 2005 02:03 PM |
Well, for those who start with the impression that the contract was a bad deal before it was ever inked, there'll never be a point that's NOT defined as dumping out too late.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 02:04 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 14 2005 02:23 PM |
This is why I'm suggesting the Mets are fundamentally cheap. They've never budgeted for "What if we screw up?" Their answer to that question seems to be "Pretend like nothing's wrong, and maybe it'll fix itself," which hasn't worked out so well.
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seawolf17 Dec 14 2005 02:07 PM |
But ultimately, the dollar determines at least some piece of what they do. Maybe Fred doesn't want to pay guys millions of dollars not to work for him; that's his prerogative. It's all play money to us.
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Benjamin Grimm Dec 14 2005 02:08 PM |
I don't think the Mets are unique in this way.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 02:10 PM |
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Found my new sig line. Thanks
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Benjamin Grimm Dec 14 2005 02:13 PM |
He's sure throwing a lot of money around for someone who doesn't want to pay guys.
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KC Dec 14 2005 02:19 PM |
>>>Look, we fans are usually the last to know.<<<
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Elster88 Dec 14 2005 02:27 PM |
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Vast majority = all
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 02:27 PM |
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Why is it always about me, me, me, KC? Can't we talk baseball for Chrissakes?
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 02:29 PM |
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This is an odd complaint: Is there any team out there over the past few years paying more money for guys not playing for them than the Mets?
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KC Dec 14 2005 02:30 PM |
There's too much of a history. It's a perfectly acceptable question from
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 02:41 PM |
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Well, if you're going to go all high finance on me, there's an adage that applies here: "Don't Send Good Money After Bad," that addresses the problem I'm identifying. If you've made a mistake, it's suicidical to continue with that mistake just to justify having made it. If you've spent 8 million on a stock that's gone into the shitter, at some point you need to take what you've invested and put it elsewhere, even if that means taking a loss on the original mistake. That's precisely what Fred refuses to do, and what I'm fauiting him for here. Look at it in baseball terms for a second. I don;t think anyone disputes that if the Mets had Ordonez at just under $500,000 rather than just under $5,000,000 per year, he would have lost his job. Well, since that money had already been lost by the time everyone on this planet decided that Ordonez deserved to lose his job, and nothing was going to earn Fred back a nickel, why did he keep his job for a few more years? Look, Fred, sometimes your front office is going to make bad choices--if you're not going to allocate some money to take care of your ballteam when this happens, your team is not going to win, and ultimately that will cost you more money than you're saving with your present policy.
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seawolf17 Dec 14 2005 02:42 PM |
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Keep in mind that Senor Bonilla will be on the payroll until the year 2289.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 02:44 PM |
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Well, MoVo was covered pretty much by insurance, right? Who else exactly has been let go with mega-money coming to him recently?
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Frayed Knot Dec 14 2005 02:52 PM Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Dec 14 2005 03:01 PM |
They cut Bonilla w/about $6mil left
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Nymr83 Dec 14 2005 02:54 PM |
Frayed Knot beat me to it....who else would you like to have seen cut with tons of money owed sal? please don't tell us piazza because even if he was making too much there was still no adequate replacement out there.
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 03:05 PM |
Legend had it the Mets were gonna whack Jerry Koosman while still a minor leaguer but for the fact HE owed THEM money.
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Elster88 Dec 14 2005 03:11 PM |
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Hey you're preaching to the choir. Fred should be faulted. But so should every other owner/GM combo in baseball.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 03:21 PM |
First off, I'm not in favor of just cutting someone if you can trade him or package him in a deal where, though you lose money, you get some kind of return and improve your team (but not your profit margin) overall. The value is falling pretty steadily in most of these cases like Alomar and Ordonez, but I believe they could have gotten a better return if they weren't so focussed on $$$$. They start out thinking "We have to get full value on Alomar" and so over-price him, and end up dumping him for even less after that season is lost.
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Elster88 Dec 14 2005 03:22 PM |
2005? I guess you mean Piazza? Minky's butt was placed firmly on the bench in crunch time last year. Glavine came back to form.
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 03:26 PM |
No, I don't believe it was.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 03:28 PM |
Second off, I don't want to get too far afield here, this thread is hopelessly hijacked already, but look at what Larry Brown is doing with the Knicks. He seems to be saying, "I don't give a fuck who makes how much money--you'll play if you're in shape, if you've got talent and intensity, if you do what what I want you to, and if I think you can make the team better someday. You think your multi-zillion dollar deal obliges me to give you "your" minutes? Think again, and do your thinking on my bench."
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 03:41 PM |
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"Take him off our hands for nothing" is asking too much? Man, you're strict. Lowe was a free agent--is every club that lets an FA go guilty of getting nothing? Again, very strict standards. Clement got off to a pretty good start--it's not like he started off bad and the Sox stuck wtih him anyway. By the time he started pitching consistently badly, the season was past the trade deadline. Elster--don't forget about Matsui.
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Elster88 Dec 14 2005 03:44 PM |
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With Kaz they didn't really have any other options, and I think they've been trying to get rid of since the middle of last year. Actually my argument has been all along that Willie was playing Cairo waaaaay too much.
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 03:44 PM |
My point was only to suggest these are issues all teams face.
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Elster88 Dec 14 2005 03:51 PM |
Me too me too.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 04:03 PM |
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And that point is well taken. But some teams cope with the issues better than others. So to return to our originally scheduled discussion, the Mets actually made Ordonez into a much hated figure. If they would have benched him (and taken the hit) he would be viewed as overpriced, certainly, but not so much despised. Might even have helped him out. ("Hmmmm, maybe I need to rethink swinging at those fastballs up around my eyes"). Whenever I hear someone claim that Reyes is showing better strike zone judgment, I think of Ordonez, and say "Show me the stats." Reyes is a lot better than Rey was, but this business of leading him off is so far an experiment that hasn't shown results: when do you just send him to the bottom of the lineup? This year? Next year? Never? If they keep leading him off, and if he keeps turning in a .300 OBP, the Mets will turn Reyes too into a much hated Mets shortstop.
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Elster88 Dec 14 2005 04:07 PM |
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You keep saying this but I'll respond with the same question that I have about benching Kaz. Who in God's name would've stepped in? Your usual contention is that it doesn't matter since we're not in a race, and to play some random kid and see if he shows you something. But in Rey's case, the Mets were in contention for most of his Met-career. What's Rey up to these days?
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 14 2005 04:29 PM |
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Yeah, and I mainly meant to respond to the "2005 slogan" regarding the Sox.
This is what I asked earlier. I think (?) Reyes may be eligible for arbitration next winter, but for our purposes now, let's just pretend he is, and let's pretend he has a 2006 year that's more or less in line with his ZiPS projections of 281/311/400 (he was .273/.300/.386 actual results last year). Given the options, do you: a) trade him b) offer arbitration c) buy out arbitration years with a 3-4 year deal
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Nymr83 Dec 14 2005 04:49 PM |
Bret- i'd have sent Reyes to the 8-hole a long time ago. but i fear that he could lower his already abysmal OBP and STILL be considered a good leadoff hitter by certain people who like to ignore stats.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 14 2005 05:01 PM |
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The 2005 slogan was just a throwaway line. I'd finished my post, noticed that my last line ended "just hang on to every useless player until eternity passes" and, caustic fucktard that I can be, thought that made a pretty funny slogan. Sorry if I poked a sensitive spot. Of the three options, I'd say that the safe answer would be d) see how much he wants to buy out the arb. years, but that's just to kill a little time. It's going to be a LOT, I'm sure, and I don't want to pay a LOT for someone who hasn't shown me that he's actually going to deliver a LOT. I'd say, based on the Rey Rey experience, that choice b) is the winner. If he takes a major step ahead in 2006 (starting with an OBP over over .335) then we reconsider.
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Nymr83 Dec 14 2005 05:40 PM |
right now i've got to go with "offer arbitration." he's done nothing to deserve a multi-year deal.
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Frayed Knot Dec 14 2005 07:34 PM |
Except that a multi-year deal helps the club also - at least the right kind of deal does. What clubs absolutely love as much as sell-outs and good weather is as much "cost certainty" as is possible to have.
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Nymr83 Dec 14 2005 08:02 PM |
lets not forget the injury factor either....he stayed healthy for once but unless he does it a 2nd straight year i wouldnt start counting on him to do it often...
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 15 2005 03:57 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 15 2005 06:25 AM |
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Yes, Captain Obvious, but what can we learn from the Ordonez debacle? To me, it's that if you have a shortstop who struggles to get his OBP above .300, but who shows a lot of potential to develop as a star, maybe you shouldn't be paying him as a star until he gets that OBP up above league average for a couple of years. Until that point, which may well not arrive, pay him year-to-year, and if you lose him, you lose him. Shortstops with good gloves are a dime a dozen, no need to pay them like superstars quite yet. The arbitration process need not be acrimonious: "We love Jose, and really want him to get on base enough to justify leading him off, as we've been doing to the detriment of our ballclub for years in the faith that he will develop this crucial skill. We agree that with better strike zone judgment, which we will do anything to help Jose acquire, he deserves a long term contract at many multiples of the salary he currently warrants, and we hope he gets his OBP up where we can sign such a contract." If you're bound and determined to read that as acrimonious, then I've got to think that acrimony is just a bargaining position meant to justify outrageous demands for a salary level you haven't begun to earn. Further, with such long-term deals, the hidden danger is that the club makes a GOOD deal: say the Mets sign Reyes to a five-year contract at a modest 3 Mil per year (after the kind of 2006 Dickshot projects, .311 OBP etc.). Fabulous, right? But say Reyes then proceeds to get on base at a consistent .375 clip, with power and Gold Glove fielding and 100 steals per year--doubly fabulous right? Not exactly. Then what you've got is one pissed-off shortstop, feeling underpaid and resentful that he could be earning Jeter-money on the open market. Think of how much you'd pay (or give up) to ACQUIRE another player like Reyes just now: a lifetime .303 OBP, some speed, a few flashes of power, good glove. Are you going to swap Beltran to get that? Floyd? He's just not that valuable --yet. Here's his current list of Similar Batters through Age 22 Jack Doyle (962) Mark Koenig (955) Red Kress (951) Jack O'Connor (948) Joe Cronin (947) * Joe Tinker (945) * Mike Caruso (944) Alfredo Griffin (943) Wil Cordero (943) Juan Uribe (942) I'd suggest a weighted average of these players is not worth a long-term big-bucks commitment. Some decent years mixed in here and there, but a lot of pretty poor years as well. If this list doesn't change in a year's time, I'd say that passing on buying out Reyes' arb. years seems pretty sound. (Koenig, for example, had a lifetime .316 OBP in some pretty strong lineups at a time when MLB offense was going crazy.)
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 15 2005 05:03 AM |
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I'm not talking about picking some kid out of the stands and putting him at second (though wouldn't that be cool?) Anderson Hernandez would be one such choice--if they'd plucked him out of AAA in June, and said, "Fuck it, let's see what he can do," you think the Mets would have lost a lot more games than they did? Or this Balderis kid that Healey's top-10 link discusses. Or re-acquire Wigginton. I don't care. My point is that if someone does very poorly and he's a minimum salary guy, the call gets made much diferently than if he's a big contract guy, though the baseball qua baseball decision is identical. Now you can argue that the big-contract guy has probably shown ability in the past (else, why the big contract?) but I'm arguing that at least SOME of that decision is an attempt on the part of the guy who signed the player to the big contract to delay, or avoid entirely, HIS looking like a horse's ass. That's what I argue about Kaz Matsui, virtually throughout his Mets career. Someone screwed the pooch in scouting him (no Japanese scout noticed that the guy has no backhand move, and no range? How much sake were these guys drinking?) and this stupid organization bid against itself in signing him to an All-Star level contract--when they saw they weren't getting All-Star level play, they made choices that have nothing to do with an honest appraisal of abilities (or lack thereof) on the field of play. As to Ordonez, to whom the quote above refers, I've already said, "Relaford or Scutaro" or whoever the backup ss was at the time. The object wasn't to improve the team, it was to send the message that persistent inadequate play results in reduced playing time. (In Scutaro's case, the team might have been improved.) And the argument that Rey-O could conly play ss is absurd. Any ss can play any infield position. There's no difference between playing ss and 3b, other than the reduced need for range (because of the foul line) at 3b. The only difference in skills between ss and 2b is learning to cover 1B and learning to turn the DP with your back to the runner, both of which can be learned easily in a few weeks of practice. Otherwise the difference between 2b and ss is the reduced need for a consistently strong throwing arm at 2b. I've never heard of a good ss being inadequate to play any other infield position, and never expect to. Ah, but did Rey-rey want to play another infield position? That may have been the nub of his problem--there were lots of skills he didn't want to acquire, like bunting or laying off high fastballs.
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MFS62 Dec 15 2005 06:46 AM |
Some other shortstops of note. They really may not belong on this list, but their careers certainly frustrated me:
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 15 2005 06:49 AM |
I think this goes in its own thread, labelled "Shortstops you've never heard of and never will and couldn't care less about."
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KC Dec 15 2005 06:56 AM |
Note: I haven't read 62's response yet, but got logged out a couple of times
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Elster88 Dec 15 2005 07:02 AM |
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To some degree? It's still happening to a huge degree. And what boggles my mind is that people say things like "after what he showed last year I'm even more pissed about this deal." I always want to shout at those people and ask them what the hell were you watching last year. It was nice but nothing to make you call for anyone's head. I don't remember who it was, but someone here was even blaming Omar and Willie for the Kazmir trade. Lash out at anyone and everyone if you're cranky. Throw those temper tantrums.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 15 2005 07:10 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 15 2005 07:21 AM |
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There's a real difference between trading a guy off because you don't think he's MLB material for at least a few more years, who then comes up to the majors immediately and starts pitching as well as the older veteran you've swapped him out for, and failing to sign a guy to a long-range contract who's demonstrated very little ability to get on base on the MLB level for the past three seasons. I love Reyes, will be dejected if he doesn't become a big star, but I'm not quite in the "Pay him zillions or risk losing his all-but-certain-stardom!!!" camp yet. Fortunately for the Mets, they're not quite in that position yet, either. Meanwhile, guess who's available to solve the Mets' 2b problem? A player who had a near .900 OPS last year at AAA. http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05342/619237.stm
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 15 2005 07:21 AM |
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EDITED: Oh, I see you mean, amatuer ball. He was pretty average in the Mets' system. [url]http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/enrique-cruz.shtml[/url] Cruz was selected in Rule 5 after 2002, and doesn't appear to have ever led his league in anytthing.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 15 2005 07:27 AM |
Yeah, Cruz had a good year last year at AA Huntsville, but he just turned 25 without having yet played AAA (did play a bit of MLB --poorly--at age 21).
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Frayed Knot Dec 15 2005 07:45 AM |
btw, I'm not arguing in favor of a multi-year deal for Reyes now, or even a year from now; just pointing out that a long-term deal isn't something that a club enters into only when forced to by circumstances. Reyes is under NYM control for the next 4 years (if they so choose) so how they go about paying him over those years is a big decision for them.
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 15 2005 08:04 AM |
I raised the Reyes point to demonstrate that while it's easy to criticize deals when they're done, these decisions are rarely so obvious at the time you make them.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 15 2005 09:04 AM |
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And a fine point it was, though I don't really notice this thread becoming filled fast and furious with firm commitments to or against Reyes even a year in advance of any decision, with plenty of time to rethink before the decision needs to be made. What's your call, Johnny? Reyes goes .311 OBP next year, are you eager to sign him to a longterm bigbux deal?
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MFS62 Dec 15 2005 09:18 AM |
Bret, in his first five full years in the majors, Roberto Clemente had OBP numbers of:
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Benjamin Grimm Dec 15 2005 09:26 AM |
Me neither.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 15 2005 09:32 AM |
MFS62--what Dickshot is positing is that AFTER 2006 if Reyes puts up a .311 OBP, do you sign an arbiration deal woith him or go for the bigbux? In fact, since there is a poll here that we're pretty much ignoring, I'll start my own poll on the subject.
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Benjamin Grimm Dec 15 2005 09:34 AM |
If I have this figured right (and I may not) Reyes will be eligible for arbitration in 2007, 08, and 09, and can be a free agent after the 2009 season.
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Johnny Dickshot Dec 15 2005 10:15 AM |
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Keep in mind, when you say "bigbux" you actually mean "usually less $$ overall than the 3 or 4 consecutive 1-year deals it would take to get him to free agency" You say, no LT contract unless his OBP is north of 335 this year. I wouldn't be that rigid (or unrealistic given that a pretty large jump). 311 is still pretty stinky, so maybe I go for a year at a time until he gets into a 330ish range too
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seawolf17 Dec 15 2005 10:57 AM |
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Right, but if he leas the league in triples and SBs and scores 100 runs, then you're going to have a pretty ugly arbitration fight on your hands. He might not just sign a one-year deal.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 15 2005 11:20 AM |
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I think that's what arbitration is: a one-year deal at a figure chosen by Mr. Arbitrator.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 15 2005 11:24 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 15 2005 11:28 AM |
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That's pretty much what I mean, Johnny. If he goes .311, let's see an arbitrator. If he breaks .335 in 2007, I'll go for a multi-year deal. If not, it's back to the arbitrator again. if he gets to his final year of arbitration-eligibility without having broken .335, well, I'll offer him a LT contract, but I don't think he's going to like what I'm offering to pay him.
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Frayed Knot Dec 15 2005 11:26 AM |
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If that's all that's offered, he really has no choice -- at least for the next 4 seasons ('06 - '09) Arbitration is merely a fall-back option that 3rd - 6th year players have to have their salary determined by an outsider if they and the team can't agree on an amount.
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Benjamin Grimm Dec 15 2005 12:42 PM |
I found this website in the UMDB referrer logs. It's all about hating Mets players.
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MFS62 Dec 15 2005 12:49 PM |
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Any such site that doesn't have Al Moran listed among the worst shortstops just doesn't have a proper sense of Mets history. Later
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Nymr83 Dec 15 2005 07:22 PM |
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unfortunately, i don't think Mr. Arbitrator has any idea who Bill James is or what OPS means....guys like Reyes tend (in my opinion) to get more in arbitration than better players with the same service time.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 15 2005 07:43 PM |
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I'm guessing you didn't know that Bill James was the source of my using the phrase "Mr. Arbitrator"--in an essay he wrote on what info you do and don't want to tell Mr. Arbitrator (and James indeed wrote that "You do, in fact, call him 'Mr. Arbitrator' "), he explains at length how you have to make sure not to say anything that Mr. A doesn't understand, how you have to be sure never to say anything incorrect or factually off, etc. James used to make a good chunk of his living, mostly working for players but sometoimes for clubs, testifying as an expert in arbitration hearings and he knows how sophisticaed some (not all) arbitrators are statistically.
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Nymr83 Dec 15 2005 08:42 PM |
i meant "they dont know who he is" more as a knock on their knowledge of sabermetrics in general.
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Bret Sabermetric Dec 16 2005 05:12 PM |
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I think James tried to educate them on the fly. If an agent was claiming that his client stealing 50 bases against 30 caught stealings was positive, James would demonstrate that 50/30 was actually more harmful than if he'd never tried to steal at all. And even if they had a better case, like Reyes' 60/15 ratio, he could quickly and easily show how little value those SBs had.
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Little Napoleon Dec 17 2005 11:57 AM |
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You got it! Mike Bordick. Hits a hr in his first game (against the Cards I think) and then literally and completely disappears for the rest of his time with the franchise. That's a good one. You cant hate Gardenhire- he's a good guy.
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