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A healthy worry about Johan Santana

Benjamin Grimm Feb 15 2013 06:56 AM

I feel like I should have known this. I'm sure that Santana's contract details have been public knowledge since the Mets signed him five years ago this month, but I didn't remember the specifics. And we've been told, again and again, that Santana's contract comes off the books after 2013 and that this is "almost certainly" his last year with the Mets. But if he manages to pitch 215 innings, that probably won't be the case: NY Mets, Terry Collins have a healthy worry about Johan Santana The two-time Cy Young Award winner’s six-year, $137.5 million deal expires this season, but the contract contains a 2014 player option that vests for $25 million if Santana pitches 215 innings in 2013, and is on the active roster for the final 30 days of the season. By Andy Martino / NEW YORK DAILY NEWS Thursday, February 14, 2013, 11:37 PM PORT ST. LUCIE - Johan Santana, in public and private, has spent the past few months saying that he has not felt this healthy in several years, and is ready for a strong, full season. If that happens, a vesting option in Santana’s contract could present a complication for Terry Collins, and impact the ace’s midseason trade value. The two-time Cy Young Award winner’s six-year, $137.5 million deal expires this season, but the contract contains a 2014 player option that vests for $25 million if Santana pitches 215 innings in 2013, and is on the active roster for the final 30 days of the season. The vesting option will also be triggered if Santana wins the Cy Young Award in 2013. If the option does not vest, the Mets can buy it out for $5.5 million. What are Santana’s chances of hitting that innings target? He has not topped 200 innings since 2008, but did so in every season from 2004-2008. In 2009, his year ended on Aug . 25 because of minor elbow surgery, and 2010 and 2012 were shortened by major shoulder surgery and its aftereffects (2011 was a complete injury-related wipeout). But this year, if Santana is indeed back to a regular schedule, and is pitching well enough to either help the Mets mount a surprise wild-card run or become trade bait, the vesting option - combined with the ace’s full no-trade clause - could become a focus. Would a contending team want to acquire a player who is on pace to top 215 innings and be owed $25 million at age 35? Very likely not, unless the Mets, Santana’s agents, and the acquiring team are able to work out an arrangement (the Mets could include significant money, or the new team could work out an extension with Santana, for example). Collins dealt with a similar situation in 2011, when closer Francisco Rodriguez had a $17.5 million option that would vest for the following season with 55 games finished. The situation was a distraction for Rodriguez, who once charged into the manager’s office and asked to restructure his contract to eliminate the clause (Collins told K-Rod that he appreciated the thought, but was talking to the wrong team official). Collins said that because the front office did not interfere in the K-Rod situation, he is not worried about managing Santana’s innings. "No, I’ve got to get him ready and let him go pitch," Collins said. "The person that makes it easy is the general manager. He doesn’t give me a hassle. Sandy (Alderson) just said, even with K-Rod, ‘You pitch him, you use him. We’ll worry about the other stuff.’ That made it easy - just go do your job." Santana, who will throw his first bullpen session of the spring this weekend, also said that he could not think about the vesting option this early in the year. "I have a lot of things to worry about," he said. "Health is one of them. For me, to go through the whole season with no problems and be able to do it, that’s what I am going to be focused on, and that’s what I’m going to be able to do. Whatever happens will happen." Asked about the no-trade clause, Santana said, "There is not much you can do. I’m here right now, and I’m going to be here helping this team. That’s the approach you’re going to have. It’s hard to talk about something that you don’t even know. "When the time comes, we’ll approach it and it might be different. But for now, I’m just focused on getting ready."

John Cougar Lunchbucket Feb 15 2013 07:25 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

Won't happen. If it does I hope its the move the bankrupts Fred.

Vic Sage Feb 15 2013 07:52 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

F-Rod, Act II. Do they rest him early and often, on the legit pretext that his damaged arm needs as much rest as possible to make it through the season? Or do they shut him down late in the year, after we're out of it, on the pretext of wanting to give Wheeler his shot? Or do they trade him at the deadline, making his contract somebody else's problem? Or do they do what they usually do... nothing.

Frayed Knot Feb 15 2013 07:53 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

12 pitchers threw 215 or more innings last season Verlander - DET Hernandez - SEA Shields - TBR Kuroda - NYY Peavy - CHW Vargas - SEA Dickey - NYM Kershaw - LAD Cain - SFG Richard - SDP Cueto - CIN Hamels - PHI Only Dickey, Peavy, & Kuroda were over 30

metsguyinmichigan Feb 15 2013 08:40 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

I worry that the option will be will be a needless distraction all season. The team should come out and say something like "We hope Johan has a healthy season, wins the Cy Young Award and triggers the option." so we don't have to hear the discussion every time Terry walks out to the mound in the sixth inning.

Edgy MD Feb 15 2013 08:51 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

If he pitches 215 innings, a lot will have worked out well, and it'd likely be a good problem to have.

MFS62 Feb 15 2013 08:55 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

Edgy MD wrote: If he pitches 215 innings, a lot will have worked out well, and it'd likely be a good problem to have. You beat me to that. I agree. Later

Mets – Willets Point Feb 15 2013 09:14 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

Edgy MD wrote: If he pitches 215 innings, a lot will have worked out well, and it'd likely be a good problem to have. This is what I was going to say too. I'd be happy if Santana can pitch that much.

Benjamin Grimm Feb 15 2013 09:25 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

Sure it would be great if he was healthy and productive and pitched 215 innings. But if that does happen, that $25 million in 2014 is going to be problematic. Especially if he's injured and/or sucky in that year.

batmagadanleadoff Feb 15 2013 09:31 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

What's the problem? Eff Wilpon sez the Mets are in the money again and everything is beautiful.

Benjamin Grimm Feb 15 2013 09:38 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

Your sarcasm aside, I think even the wealthiest of teams are handicapped when they have to spend $25 million on a non-productive player.

Edgy MD Feb 15 2013 09:41 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

While that's certainly true. If he logs 215 innings, he will certainly have had a productive year, and the Mets would likely have had a profitable year. He still would be unlikely to be worth that money, but the sting would be lessened.

smg58 Feb 15 2013 10:14 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

He'd have to pitch awfully well and be injury-free to get to 215 innings. The Mets have perfectly sound baseball reasons to exercise caution with him, and it would take Johan in his prime to get the inning count to where it would even become an issue. If he's actually on pace for it at the All-Star Break, we can discuss it further then

Benjamin Grimm Feb 15 2013 10:41 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

I don't think it's anything to panic about either. But I figure it's something we ought to be aware of. And really, I'm surprised that I didn't already know this.

Centerfield Feb 15 2013 11:01 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

I hope he pitches 214 innings and is robbed of the Cy Young because of a prejudice against pitchers on the same team winning back-to-back Cy Young awards when the pitcher that won it the first year was a knuckleballer who is now no longer on the team.

G-Fafif Feb 15 2013 11:28 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

Through 1991, at least one Met pitched 215 or more innings every season save for 1980, strike-shortened 1981, 1982 and injury-ravaged 1987. Since 1991, only four pitchers have pitched at least 215 innings: Hampton in 2000; Martinez in 2005; Santana in 2008; and Dickey in 2012. To the intuitive point that you have to be having a pretty good season to compile that kind of workload, it wasn't always the case. Sub-90 ERA+ for Mets with 215 or more IP: Jack Fisher three times (1964, 1965, 1967), Al Jackson in 1963 and Mike Torrez in 1983.

Benjamin Grimm Feb 15 2013 11:38 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

To get to 215 innings, Santana would have to average just about 7 innings per start over 31 starts. (6.94 innings, if you want two decimal points of precision.) If he makes a full 34 starts (which is the most anybody seems to get anymore) he would need to average 6.32 innings per start. Over his time with the Mets, Santana has averaged 6.57 innings per start. In 2012, it was 5.57 innings per start.

vtmet Feb 15 2013 12:16 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

If they are that concerned about him vesting at 215 innings, then they might as well send him to the WBC...it pretty much had a season limiting effect on just about any Met that attended the 2009 WBC...I know that there are articles that try to prove that the WBC has no effect on injuries; but I disagree with the Mets 2009... Santana had 5 consecutive 215+ inning seasons prior to 2009, averaging 229 innings and 34 starts... http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... g_standard then: 2009: 166 innings; 2010: 199 innings; 2011: nothing; 2012: 117 innings; true, he could have gotten injuries without going to the WBC, but what did the Mets accomplish by sending all of their key players and big contracts to the WBC?

John Cougar Lunchbucket Feb 15 2013 12:27 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

vtmet wrote: what did the Mets accomplish by sending all of their key players and big contracts to the WBC? The org earned the good graces of Bud Selig, which went a very long way. They also got to advance the image they were trying to craft at the time of the Mets as a kind of model of modern diversity and inclusion. That got Omar a Gary Smith profile in SI.

vtmet Feb 15 2013 12:57 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: what did the Mets accomplish by sending all of their key players and big contracts to the WBC? The org earned the good graces of Bud Selig, which went a very long way. They also got to advance the image they were trying to craft at the time of the Mets as a kind of model of modern diversity and inclusion. That got Omar a Gary Smith profile in SI. Besides Santana... Reyes: 2005-2008: averaged 158 games and 741 Plate Appearances; 2009: 36 games; 166 PA's; http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... g_standard Beltran: 2001-2008: averaged 152 games; 665 PA's; 2009: 81 games; 357 PA's; http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... g_standard Delgado: 2005-2008: averaged 146 games; 632 PA's; 2009: 26 games; 112 PA's; http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... g_standard Wright: 2005-2008: averaged 158 games; 691 PA's; 2009: 144 games; 618 PA's; http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... g_standard Of the less significant players, Putz and Oliver Perez went from 34 starts and 47 games to 14 starts and 29 games respectively; Feliciano and KRod pitched in as many games in 2009 as they did in 2008; Fernando Tatis actually seemed to benefit, playing in 125 games and having pretty decent numbers, up from 92 games in 2008... I think that the NFL should take notice and start having their Pro Bowl prior to the regular season...the WBC may not be directly linked to the injuries, but when you play a 162 game season with a month long Spring Training, you really don't need a "battle of your patriotism" tournament when players are supposed to be getting conditioned for the long haul of the season...

Frayed Knot Feb 15 2013 01:08 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

... Since 1991, only four [NYM] pitchers have pitched at least 215 innings: Hampton in 2000; Martinez in 2005; Santana in 2008; and Dickey in 2012. In three of those cases, the pitcher in question had thrown at least 215 innings the previous year as well (something which clearly won't be the case with Johan here) and Dickey in 2011 was almost there with 208 innings thrown. Those same four 215+ seasons were followed up with years which saw the pitcher: - jump ship and experience a near doubling of his ERA (Hampton) - make eight fewer starts and throw just 132 innings (Pedro) - make seven fewer starts and drop to 166 innings pitched (Santana) - get dealt away and ???? (Dickey) Not that I'm suggesting a cause and effect here based on those pitchers exceeding 215 IPs. Like the WBC data this is just too small a sample to start cherry picking conclusions, however tempting that might be.

G-Fafif Feb 15 2013 02:03 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

... Since 1991, only four [NYM] pitchers have pitched at least 215 innings: Hampton in 2000; Martinez in 2005; Santana in 2008; and Dickey in 2012. In three of those cases, the pitcher in question had thrown at least 215 innings the previous year as well (something which clearly won't be the case with Johan here) and Dickey in 2011 was almost there with 208 innings thrown. Those same four 215+ seasons were followed up with years which saw the pitcher: - jump ship and experience a near doubling of his ERA (Hampton) - make eight fewer starts and throw just 132 innings (Pedro) - make seven fewer starts and drop to 166 innings pitched (Santana) - get dealt away and ???? (Dickey) Not that I'm suggesting a cause and effect here based on those pitchers exceeding 215 IPs. Like the WBC data this is just too small a sample to start cherry picking conclusions, however tempting that might be. One franchise, 21 seasons, four pitchers reaching the mark. It's a rarity around here at this point, so I'm not really worried/enthused about Johan's chances of getting to 215 IP.

Ceetar Feb 15 2013 02:44 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

yawn, chalk this up to "good problem to have" it's also why I floated the gamble of renegotiating his contract into a 3/36 type thing. But there's a fair shot Santana pitching at a 215 inning pace is going to bring the pennant race, and the money that comes with that, to afford it. Bay's money is still coming off the books, and if things are really looking up, and the Mets are looking up on the field, it probably isn't a huge issue.

G-Fafif Feb 15 2013 04:33 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

May the Mets go so zimmo on the 215 innings Santana throws this year that Fred personally extend him another six years based on the three shutouts he throws in the World Series.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 15 2013 04:40 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

"May we be cursed for a thousand years with such problems!" -The bubbe in my head

Frayed Knot Feb 15 2013 04:50 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

Ceetar wrote: yawn, chalk this up to "good problem to have" it's also why I floated the gamble of renegotiating his contract into a 3/36 type thing. Santana is set to pull down $25.5 this season plus another $5.5 in a buyout even if he doesn't reach the automatic re-up. I don't think he's going to lock himself up for the next two years for what is essentially an additional 5 mill. Best at this point to just let this season play out and re-evaluate then.

Ceetar Feb 15 2013 06:29 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

Frayed Knot wrote: Ceetar wrote: yawn, chalk this up to "good problem to have" it's also why I floated the gamble of renegotiating his contract into a 3/36 type thing. Santana is set to pull down $25.5 this season plus another $5.5 in a buyout even if he doesn't reach the automatic re-up. I don't think he's going to lock himself up for the next two years for what is essentially an additional 5 mill. Best at this point to just let this season play out and re-evaluate then. When I proposed it it was to free up some money this year to make things happen anyway. I don't remember the numbers I suggested, probably was more like 3/45 I guess ,given his contract. It was probably a gamble not appropriate to this team's situation, but thought it was an interesting thought. I'm not one that thinks Santana's washed up and done.

Ashie62 Feb 15 2013 09:33 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

metsguyinmichigan wrote: I worry that the option will be will be a needless distraction all season. The team should come out and say something like "We hope Johan has a healthy season, wins the Cy Young Award and triggers the option." so we don't have to hear the discussion every time Terry walks out to the mound in the sixth inning. This would be ideal but it is New York...You just know we will be hit over the head by the blogosphere around trade deadline time whether the Mets are in First or last... There will likey be a Santana buy or sell type thread on this forum this season if there isn't already...

Benjamin Grimm Sep 26 2013 12:18 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

It looks like this won't be an issue.

Centerfield Sep 26 2013 12:22 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

If we're inviting Dice-K to spring training, I'd extend an invite to Johan as well.

Edgy MD Sep 26 2013 12:26 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

Johan, at some level, will probably command a guaranteed big league job, no? I don't think his brand has degraded quite as much as Daisuke's, even if Matsuzaka is demonstrably healthy. Maybe not.

Centerfield Sep 26 2013 12:34 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

You think? Second shoulder capsule surgery in three years? Chen Ming Wang's phone isn't exactly ringing off the hook.

Edgy MD Sep 26 2013 12:47 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

True enough. But Wang didn't have a pair of Cy Young Awards, plus a no-hitter nailed up after the first surgery. Matsuzaka comes across more as healthy but degraded. Just my impression. You're probably right, and he's more than likely to end up coming to a camp without a big league contract. He just seems less likely to do that than Matsuzaka.

metirish Sep 26 2013 12:54 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

Didn't Wang have back to back 19 or 20 win seasons?

Edgy MD Sep 26 2013 02:01 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

Yeah, but winning 19 for the Yankees and winning the same for the Twins ain't the same thing. Total Career CY Shares Santana: 2.72 Wang: 0.36 Matsuzaka: 0.07 Wang and Santana will be 34 next season. Matsuzaka will be 33.

Gwreck Sep 26 2013 02:58 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

Total Career CY Shares Santana: 2.72 I still maintain Santana earned and was robbed of the 2008 Award.

smg58 Sep 26 2013 06:08 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

If Johan's in any position to pitch next year he'll command a major league deal. It took quite a long time for Wang to get back to that. The Nationals threw a few million away on Wang waiting for him to be ready, if I recall. I wouldn't say no to giving Johan a look, but I wouldn't be in a hurry to open my wallet for him.

Frayed Knot Sep 26 2013 06:17 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

Obviously it's going to depend on how Johan looks when he eventually gets around to throwing in front of whoever is interested in watching him. So with that caveat in mind, I could see Santana getting a deal with a lower guarantee but higher ceiling as compared to what the already-proven healthy Matsuzaka will command.

Ashie62 Sep 26 2013 07:09 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

Personally? screw Santana and give Cano his 305 million!

Edgy MD Sep 27 2013 06:57 AM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

Are you quite sane? You're hijacking a thread, ignoring the subject, coming up with a crazy new subject. If that's what you want to talk about, please do the decent thing and start a new thread.

Ashie62 Sep 27 2013 01:54 PM Re: A healthy worry about Johan Santana

If Matsuzaka is healthy could he get 2 years for 12??