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Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

John Cougar Lunchbucket Feb 26 2013 06:13 AM

So Doodoo is being held out of the next few games to get his shit together. Terry sounded a bit irritated, as though it wasn't just a routine recovery from the wrist injury holding him back but the notion he's out of shape generally (this is my interpretation of his tone anyway). I'm thinking, that's bad. If the fans get on him this year (and he's got to be first in line as he's the most visible representative of an outfield the fans will want to express their disapproval of) I can't see him overcome that. Really I see him becoming this year's version of Pelfrey: A big supposedly talented guy who struggles to dominate and gets a rep as a "head case." All that said I kind of like Doodoo as an idea: he's got powa but also a good base-hit stroke, so if it goes right for him he could be a 25/90/280 kinda guy playing every day. But this latest development has me worried. What's your prediction for Duda in 2013?

Ceetar Feb 26 2013 06:18 AM Re: Duda Right Thing

I think he'll have a good year and I don't buy the head case thing, but I haven't read up on this latest..sitting out thing? I'd be surprised at an out of shape thing considering he's been there for weeks. a Spring Training of hard work with his swing and approach should pay off in my mind. .270/.365/.475 28 HR I do agree that he's going to be the scapegoat.

metirish Feb 26 2013 06:26 AM Re: Duda Right Thing

I can see him being out of shape, perfect fit his future as a DH. It would be harsh for the fans to give him Pelfrey treatment, wouldn't be surprising though. In a platoon by mid May.

Ceetar Feb 26 2013 06:31 AM Re: Duda Right Thing

metirish wrote: I can see him being out of shape That people can see it is I think is the main basis for such reports.

Frayed Knot Feb 26 2013 06:36 AM Re: Duda Right Thing

He's 0-fer-7 with 6 Ks so far this spring, a performance that got him out of yesterday's lineup and onto a back field for remedial help to hope he can "find his swing" [Kernan - NY Post]. Various quotes follow talking about it being a 'timing issue' which could be attributed to the off-season wrist injury and the lack of swings because of it.

Edgy MD Feb 26 2013 07:17 AM Re: Duda Right Thing

I don't think he's out of shape so much as (1) adapting to his injury, and (2) Lucas Duda. I'd never use the term head case --- pejorative and as broad as to be useless ---- but he strikes me as having a terribly awkward personality. And that's a shame because he seems to have the most complete skill set as a hitter of anybody to come down the road for thee Mets since Wright. Good contact stroke, good power. But he gets lost for six weeks at a time. So if the Mets are trying to intervene before he falls into one of those holes, best wishes to them. A challenge, try to find a photo of Duda, where you think, "Man, that's one relaxed and easygoing dude.": He strikes me as the big guy that jerky little guys picked fights with, just to make them look goofy when they fight themselves to maintain composure while fighting back.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Feb 26 2013 07:22 AM Re: Duda Right Thing

I understand the official explanation, and I'm perfectly willing to believe that, it was just the tone in Terry's voice as he discussed it that led me to believe that it's a timing issue ... that ought to have been worked on before he arrived at camp, or ... wouldn't be such an issue were he not so fat, or ... hasn't been addressed by Duda to Terry's satisfaction thus far, etc etc I agree "Head case" is not a good term but that's what'll be used. He's Pelfrey all over I'm convinced.

Benjamin Grimm Feb 26 2013 07:42 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

Hope JCL doesn't mind... I made this the IPP thread for Lucas Duda. I've tended to always see Lucas Duda as, at best, another Jeromy Burnitz. On Mets Hot Stove last week, Daniel Murphy said that "the Dude" is the guy to watch this year, the player who's going to have a breakout year that will surprise everyone. I hope it happens, and if it does, I'll be one of those who are surprised. I'm afraid that 2013 is going to be his last hurrah with the Mets, and that he'll play himself out of the conversation for the 2014 outfield. I'll say .239, 15 homers, 120 strikeouts, benched by August.

seawolf17 Feb 26 2013 07:44 AM Re: Duda Right Thing

I think the Duda Bides, although Burnitz is a scary parallel. .260/33/88 in 140 games.

MFS62 Feb 26 2013 07:53 AM Re: Duda Right Thing

Frayed Knot wrote: He's 0-fer-7 with 6 Ks so far this spring, a performance that got him out of yesterday's lineup and onto a back field for remedial help to hope he can "find his swing" [Kernan - NY Post]. Various quotes follow talking about it being a 'timing issue' which could be attributed to the off-season wrist injury and the lack of swings because of it. Yesterday's paper (Post?) mentioned that Hudgens felt Duda's swing was too "busy", so has been working with Duda to reduce the extra motion as the pitch arrives. So, he isn't finding his swing per se, he is learing an entirely different swing, including footwork/ stride. And he looks uncomfortable so far. In the article, Hudgens cited Joey Votto as an examle of a good lefty hitter with a quiet stance. Does a quiet, flatfooted, stance make a hitter successful? What about Joe Morgan's flapping elbow, Stan Musual playing "peek-a-boo" and Sadahara Oh standing on one leg? Mybe Duda doesn't look comfortable because he isn't. But I think it will work itself out, and Duda will finish .265 - 26- 86. I made this prediction last year, but I'll make it again this year: Davis and Duda will be the most outstanding pair of Ds seen on a baseball field since Morganna. Later

Edgy MD Feb 26 2013 08:00 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

In education, there's this new model called the Strengths Movement. The theory goes that educators should stop using time and resources on isolating, pathologizing, and treating a child's weaknesses, which serves to stigmatize and discourage a child, and motivates them to aspire to reaching milestones of average, and instead recognize and encourage what a child is best at, which motivates them to excel, and gives them to the confidence to attack their weaknesses in their own way, without shame. It strikes me that managers work from similar poles. You have guys using spring to spend hours upon hours working on the crap parts of their game, and will limit their playing time until they smooth off the rough edges --- this would perhaps be the fictional version (perhaps the real one too) of Art Howe in Moneyball. And then you have the guys who pride themselves on recognizing what works about a guy's game, accepting what does't, and trying to get those guys into a situation that matches their skills. Maybe Davy Johnson is the model of this latter type. Obviously, most managers work somewhere in between, on a case-by-case basis. But considering that Lucas almost always looks like he's on the verge of crying, he strikes me as a delicate case for a manager to be a hardass with.

Edgy MD Feb 26 2013 08:03 AM Re: Duda Right Thing

seawolf17 wrote: I think the Duda Bides, although Burnitz is a scary parallel. .260/33/88 in 140 games. Burnitz can also be a pretty exciting parallel. Burnitz had a damn good career --- just not for the Mets.

metirish Feb 26 2013 08:07 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

IPP ?

Benjamin Grimm Feb 26 2013 08:08 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

metirish wrote: IPP ? It's our newest TLA. It's all the rage!

Vic Sage Feb 26 2013 08:17 AM Re: Duda Right Thing

Edgy MD wrote: I think the Duda Bides, although Burnitz is a scary parallel. .260/33/88 in 140 games. Burnitz can also be a pretty exciting parallel. Burnitz had a damn good career --- just not for the Mets. yeah, you beat me to it, Edge. The guy played 14 years, with a .250/30hr/95rbi line, and a career .825 OPS, not to mention a great RF arm. Duda should be so lucky as to have that kind of career. And i don't see it happening. projection: .240 /16 HRs in around 300 ABs, benched by August

Edgy MD Feb 26 2013 08:22 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

He's pretty much at the point in his career where Burnitz turned a corner, for whatever that's worth.

MFS62 Feb 26 2013 08:22 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

metirish wrote: IPP ? IPP stands for "Individual Player Prediction". Later

Vic Sage Feb 26 2013 08:29 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

He's pretty much at the point in his career where Burnitz turned a corner, for whatever that's worth. not exactly. Burnitz was a late bloomer, who didn't put up a full quality season till age 28, after 5 years in the majors, with 3 different teams. And maybe Duda will need that kind of time and opportunity, or maybe he won't, or maybe he'll never develop regardless of time and opportunity. But Burnitz was given the extended chance because he was a 1st round pick, with a lot of natural athletic talent, who was a pretty good OFer even when he wasn't hitting. Plus he played with intensity and passion, which managers (and fans) tend to like. Duda has none of this, and with a personality bordering on borderline, i don't think he will be given that kind of extended opportunity to turn the corner in his career. I'd like to be wrong.

batmagadanleadoff Feb 26 2013 08:33 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

Duda's the worst defensive outfielder in all of baseball. By any measure. By every measure. He's so bad that he's capable of hitting like an all star all season long and still grading out as an overall liability. If Duda's not in the AL in 2014, then he's the likeliest Met to be asked to put on the Santa suit for next Winter's holiday party.

Farmer Ted Feb 26 2013 08:36 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

I broke my hand 30 years ago and my wrist is still limp. Anyway......

Edgy MD Feb 26 2013 08:36 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

not exactly. No, not exactly. Therefore I wrote "pretty much." I'm just noting that: [list][*]Burnitz turned the corner at 28 and about 274 games into his career.[/*:m] [*]Duda is 27 and 250 games into his career.[/*:m][/list:u] I draw no parallels beyond that. I didn't even introduce Burnitz to the thread. While Burnitz may have been given time to come around because of his useful defense, Duda's gotten time because of his.. team's lack of alternatives and their steadfastness, I guess.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 26 2013 11:59 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

Nice debut, second-year terribleness, entering age-27 season... ... I'm feeling optimistic. Let's give him a prorated/tweaked version of Burnitz's third/age-27 season, along with terrible defense: 450 PAs, 400 AB, .255/.356/.470, 18 HRs, 67 RBI, 46 XBH, 55 R, 94 K.

DocTee Feb 26 2013 12:40 PM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

.243/17/68 Hot streaks when the Mets play poorly, cold snaps when they are on a tear. Gone in 2014.

Lefty Specialist Feb 26 2013 01:52 PM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Nice debut, second-year terribleness, entering age-27 season... ... I'm feeling optimistic. Let's give him a prorated/tweaked version of Burnitz's third/age-27 season, along with terrible defense: 450 PAs, 400 AB, .255/.356/.470, 18 HRs, 67 RBI, 46 XBH, 55 R, 94 K. This. I'd say that he'd be in a platoon by mid-season, but I expect all of their starting outfielders will be in that situation and there won't be enough people to platoon with. So he'll stay in the lineup most days for 'maybe he'll run into one' reasons. Just hoping that the 'maybe he'll run into one' isn't one of the other outfielders.

Fman99 Feb 26 2013 07:49 PM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

.291/38 HR/110 RBI, impregnates every 5th woman in Bayside. Big Duda.

Ashie62 Feb 27 2013 09:01 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

The dude looks a little like John Kruk.. 425 AB .229/16/50 Not enough to keep him around.

Vic Sage Feb 27 2013 10:10 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

That would be ok if he he HIT like Krukie, too.

smg58 Feb 27 2013 02:26 PM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

Ashie62 wrote: 425 AB .229/16/50 Not enough to keep him around. Agree with the top line, wish I could agree with the bottom.

Zvon Feb 27 2013 08:45 PM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

Anything "Mets" that hasn't happened yet, I gotta be optimistic about. .269/ 29(with 2 weeks left to the season to hit his 30th and he doesn't do it)/ 83 I think its a good thing they are re-working his approach at the plate. I always thought he was showing too many moving parts. Thought I saw the leg lift/toe tap back today when he got that hit up the middle.

batmagadanleadoff Mar 16 2013 03:56 PM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

From Baseball Prospectus 2013: Zip-a-Dee's WARP scores in 2011 and 2012 show the two poles for a player who hurts his team on the bases and in the field: hit and have modest value or don't hit and be a horrible sinkhole. Duda struggles with the low pitch. Major league pitchers being what they are, and major league advance scouting being what it is, you can guess where Duda was pitched in 2012. The ability to recognize the problem and adjust back will be key to Duda returning to a semblance of his 2011 self. (Apologies to readers who have been waiting all comment for a Big Lebowski joke. Not happening. PA 438 HR 16 .261/.333/.438 WARP -1.5

batmagadanleadoff Apr 17 2013 01:38 PM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

Lucas Duda has 11 walks, ordinarily enough to lead the majors in that category this early in the season. Except that Joey Votto has 21 walks. 21!

Edgy MD Apr 17 2013 01:56 PM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

(Apologies to readers who have been waiting all comment for a Big Lebowski joke. Not happening.) Yeah, that Song of the South joke was much fresher.

dinosaur jesus Apr 17 2013 02:01 PM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

At least he didn't go with "Camptown Ladies."

batmagadanleadoff Jun 25 2013 09:19 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

Lucas Duda can't catch a break Lucas Duda at first base. MLB.tv By Howard Megdal 10:19 am Jun. 25, 2013 Lucas Duda is in a baseball trap. Back in 2011, over 347 plate appearances for the Mets at 24, Duda showed two things. One was that he could hit major league pitching, with a 137 O.P.S.+. The other was that he was a first baseman, and a perfectly good one, but definitely not an outfielder. But the Mets, who also employed Ike Davis and didn't have many outfield options around, decided to try and make Duda into what he wasn't. In 2012, that meant an extended stay in right field, with terrible results. Duda's effort was never in question. But he simply doesn't have the basic quickness required to play the outfield. And it appeared Duda let his defensive struggles affect him at the plate, with his production dropping precipitously. Rather than deal Duda, the Mets kept him and tried him in 2013 in left field. Similar results followed, though Duda's hitting at least stayed relatively steady. And when Ike Davis slumped for two months, and finally got sent to Triple-A, the Mets hesitated even then, first electing to move a perfectly competent Daniel Murphy from second base instead. Only last week did the Mets finally employ the single best option to play first base on the roster, Duda, at first base. And naturally, that's when Duda got hurt, injuring his intercostal muscle and landing on the disabled list this past weekend. Meanwhile, Davis is hitting home runs in bunches for Triple-A Las Vegas, indicating either that his swing is fixed or that flawed sluggers can still hit homers in the Pacific Coast League. Which is the case will be determined shortly, with Adam Rubin reporting Davis could return as soon as Thursday. At which point ... what becomes of Lucas Duda? Are the Mets going to really going to go back to that failed outfield experiment? Has his strong hitting this season and recent stint at first base increased his trade value? Plenty of teams can and are doing worse, production-wise, at first base or designated hitter. But the offense-starved Mets seem more interested in keeping Duda's solid bat in the lineup than worrying about what positions he can or can't play. And the Mets, without other decent options at the position in the system, almost have to keep Duda around as an insurance policy, in case Davis really isn't fixed. The shame of it for Duda is that in the period of Ike Davis exile, he might have put a hold on first base for the Mets, or at least have complicated the decision. Instead, his move there was delayed, and once he got there, he lasted just a few days. Instead of Wally Pipping Davis, he's about to be Pipped himself. And while the Mets find out what Davis can do after a few weeks in Vegas, Duda waits, his prime years squandered by poor circumstances and organizational desperation. http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/s ... t-headline

Edgy MD Jun 25 2013 09:45 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

I don't think Megdal correctly understands the legacy of Wally Pipp.

Ceetar Jun 25 2013 09:46 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

Edgy MD wrote: I don't think Megdal correctly understands the legacy of Wally Pipp. Many don't. Pipp is one of those adjectives that could do with a little less use.

Centerfield Jun 25 2013 09:55 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

Edgy MD wrote: I don't think Megdal correctly understands the legacy of Wally Pipp. Of course he does. He's saying Ike Davis is Gehrig. Megdal is nothing if not optimistic.

Ashie62 Jun 25 2013 10:32 AM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

Duda could end up lost in the sauce..

Edgy MD Jun 25 2013 12:52 PM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

I'm not sure what that means.

Benjamin Grimm Jun 25 2013 01:01 PM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

I think it means he'll be in a large vat of sauce, and won't know how to get out of it.

Edgy MD Jun 25 2013 01:10 PM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

By the way, on my fake OotP team, I got away with putting Lucas Duda in the infield for four innings when Wright got hurt and the bench was empty. For four innings he shifted back and fourth between second and third, made no errors, and started a double play. Make the move NOW, Terry!!!!

Ashie62 Jun 25 2013 04:46 PM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

That had to be a video game..

Edgy MD Jun 25 2013 05:58 PM Re: Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

The version I'm playing isn't much for visuals.