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2013 IPP: Ike Davis

Benjamin Grimm Mar 01 2013 07:48 AM

So who is Ike Davis? The guy who hit .160 for two and a half months and looked completely lost? Or the guy who cranked it up in the second half and finished with 32 home runs? I'm counting on it being the latter. I'll admit there may be wishful thinking here, but I think Ike is going to come through pretty big in 2013. He'll approach 40 homers and may even break the club record of 41. He'll drive in about 110 runs. I'll even predict that he'll be the Schaefer Mets Player of the Year. What do you expect from Ike Davis?

MFS62 Mar 01 2013 08:01 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

.278-38-118. Later

Centerfield Mar 01 2013 08:31 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

Wow, really. I'd sign on for both of those right now. I think Ike will continue to struggle with consistency and hitting lefties. .245 - 35 HR - 95 RBI

batmagadanleadoff Mar 01 2013 09:08 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

Benjamin Grimm wrote: So who is Ike Davis? The guy who hit .160 for two and a half months and looked completely lost? Or the guy who cranked it up in the second half and finished with 32 home runs? I'm counting on it being the latter. I'll admit there may be wishful thinking here, but I think Ike is going to come through pretty big in 2013. He'll approach 40 homers and may even break the club record of 41. He'll drive in about 110 runs. I'll even predict that he'll be the Schaefer Mets Player of the Year. What do you expect from Ike Davis? I'm still optimistic on Ike. Enough so that I could envision Grimm's latter scenario without offending my strict personal sense of realism.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 01 2013 09:30 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

30-100/260/350/490

Edgy MD Mar 01 2013 09:53 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

Is the Fever thing done? I don't know, but I like to think he's negotiated with it and knows how to pace himself through the season. .286 / 41 / 124.

Ceetar Mar 01 2013 09:58 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

I guess I should be consistent with my predictions, and I did Ike previously so: .271/.350/.533 41hr, tying the franchise record for HR. It's probably a tad high on the AVG/SLG portion though.

Ashie62 Mar 01 2013 10:16 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

.265 35 HR 100 RBI stays healthy..

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 01 2013 10:38 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

Y'alls have some HIGH RBI numbers for a guy in this offensive environment. 590 PAs, .266/.355/.511, 77 R, 32 HR, 91 RBI, 63 XBH

Edgy MD Mar 01 2013 10:42 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

Yabbut... he's gonna be a runaway train of productivity. And David Wright and Daniel Murphy will be on base for all his homers. Maybe Nieuwenhuis once or twice too! Sometime around week four, Kirk Gibson will walk him to instead pitch to Duda. Oh, mercy, will Kirk regret that.

smg58 Mar 01 2013 12:02 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

.270/.350/.530, with 35 kabooms and an even 100 for an RBI total.

metsmarathon Mar 01 2013 01:49 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

270/360/520 doesn't seem egregiously optimistic, with about 40 homers. i think he's more like hte player we saw at hte beginning of '11 and end of '12, but he'll have to stay healthy for it. i'd like to dream his batting average to be a little higher, but then i'm getting greedy. i think, moreso, that if he could drive in 90 with the season he had last year, he should be able to send ten more metties around hte bases this year with relative ease.

Vic Sage Mar 01 2013 01:53 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Y'alls have some HIGH RBI numbers for a guy in this offensive environment. 590 PAs, .266/.355/.511, 77 R, 32 HR, 91 RBI, 63 XBH This, more or less. Which would be fine.

Zvon Mar 01 2013 03:10 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

I hope he learned last year that if he keeps his fluid swing he does not have to press or swing for the fences. The home runs will come. 36 HR/96 RBI/.276 avg.

TheOldMole Mar 01 2013 07:15 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

.275, 38 HR, 111 RBI.

vtmet Mar 02 2013 11:11 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

Benjamin Grimm wrote: So who is Ike Davis? The guy who hit .160 for two and a half months and looked completely lost? The thing is though...Davis was still a "newbie" when he missed most of the previous season...then had to rehab that ankle injury, which was then compounded by the desert fever thing...Davis's injury occurred on the 36th game of the season, and only the 183rd day of his career (he was hitting .302 with a .905 OPS at that time (and .271 with a .817 OPS in his 183 game career)... So...IMO, the .160 is more of an anomaly, than a normality for Ike's true self...It was basically his spring training after missing a season... He's probably never going to be a "triple crown" candidate because of the Ryan Howard like shift that teams put on him (which he hits into, but would be a clean single for Murphy); plus his bickering with homeplate umps is never going to win him any borderline pitches... I'd say that overall, he's a .270'ish hitter, with an 850+ OPS; 30ish HRs and 60+ Extra basehits...The main plus for him isn't his average/OBP; it's his power potential to be able to crush Homeruns consistently against any pitcher in any ballpark... I was in Tampa last year when he had been struggling, and he absolutely crushed a 3 run Homerun off lefty JP Howell (Howell allowed 7 HRs in 55 games last season with only 1 of those other 6 HRs coming against a Lefty hitter)... http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... r=2012&t=p http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 6120.shtml

TransMonk Mar 02 2013 11:22 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

I'll take the under for Ike's BA with everyone's predictions save CF's 30+ HRs with too many Ks.

Ceetar Mar 02 2013 11:24 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

TransMonk wrote: I'll take the under for Ike's BA with everyone's predictions save CF's 30+ HRs with too many Ks. As Alderson noted the other day, it's probably not too many Ks with 30+ HR if he's also walking occasionally.

TransMonk Mar 02 2013 11:34 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

Unless he can put up triple digit RBIs to go with the 30 HRs, it will be too many in my book.

vtmet Mar 02 2013 12:18 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

TransMonk wrote: Unless he can put up triple digit RBIs to go with the 30 HRs, it will be too many in my book. this is a tough team to produce 100 RBI for...Wright had 662 Plate Appearances, hit .306 while driving himself in 21 times and he only had 93 RBI...Mets have a bunch of #2, #3, #7 and #8 type of hitters, but not a single good choice to "set the table" at the top of the order...Can't really blame the meat of the order when you got mules instead of thoroughbred race horses hitting in front of them...

Ceetar Mar 02 2013 12:31 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

TransMonk wrote: Unless he can put up triple digit RBIs to go with the 30 HRs, it will be too many in my book. That has everything to do with Wright, Tejada, and Valdespin/Cowgill/Murphy/etc and very little to do with Ike.

TransMonk Mar 02 2013 12:47 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

Ceetar wrote: TransMonk wrote: Unless he can put up triple digit RBIs to go with the 30 HRs, it will be too many in my book. That has everything to do with Wright, Tejada, and Valdespin/Cowgill/Murphy/etc and very little to do with Ike. Stranding runners, ending innings, killing rallies...those are the types of Davis Ks that will add up to too many in my book. Eventually someone who comes up after the third spot in the lineup is going to need to be able to hit consistently. I'm not sure I've identified a 2013 Met who gives me confidence that they are the player who is going to do that.

vtmet Mar 02 2013 12:52 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

Funny thing is...how would people feel if this was Ike's "average" season in a long term career? .263 average; .878 OPS; 120 strikeouts; 92 RBI; 83 runs; 32 HRs; 23 doubles; 4 triples... Would that be "great"; "very good"; "good"; "mediocre"; "crap"? the reason I ask? That was Strawberry's average season as a Met...while putting up relatively below average RF defense...Ike is a much better 1st baseman than Straw was a RFer...

TransMonk Mar 02 2013 01:01 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

I'd be more than OK with Ike's final stats from 2012 in 2013...I would only want to see the drastic 1st half/2nd half splits even out. If he maintains what he did in the 2nd half of 2012 for all of 2013...then we've got the potential to have something special going on. My goal for Ike in 2013 would be consistency.

metsmarathon Mar 02 2013 07:58 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

its a slightly different offensive environment, so i'd like to reframe the question. as a met, darryl averaged a 145 OPS+. if ike can finish his long metly career with a 145 OPS+ i will be thrilled and ecstatic. for comparison sake, albert belle finished his career with a 144 OPS+, lance berkman is at 146 OPS+. that said, an 0.878 career OPS would basically mean being consistently in the top 10 in the league for OPS, so it's really nothing to shake a stick at. i'll take it.

vtmet Mar 02 2013 08:38 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

metsmarathon wrote: its a slightly different offensive environment, so i'd like to reframe the question. as a met, darryl averaged a 145 OPS+. if ike can finish his long metly career with a 145 OPS+ i will be thrilled and ecstatic. for comparison sake, albert belle finished his career with a 144 OPS+, lance berkman is at 146 OPS+. that said, an 0.878 career OPS would basically mean being consistently in the top 10 in the league for OPS, so it's really nothing to shake a stick at. i'll take it. true enough... until recent years, I never paid attention to "OPS"; "OPS+"; "OBP"; etc... The way that I always looked at it: The fast guys were supposed to score; the non-fast guys were supposed to hit for power and drive in the fast guys; and the rest better either be good on defense or pitch real well (throw strikes, keep guys off base and not let them score)...

batmagadanleadoff Mar 18 2013 04:43 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

From Baseball Prospectus 2013: Davis's 2012 was reminiscent of those old Tony Bautista seasons where the home runs make you perk up right before the on-base percentage lets you back down. Talk of Davis's nightlife habits surfaced simultaneously with trade rumors in September, but rebuilding teams don't get anywhere by trading young, cheap players at the nadir of their value. Unless there's a real problem in his behavior, he's a bounce-back candidate: He swings at the pitches that power hitters should swing at, takes his walks, hits the ball in the air, and has consistently shown plenty of pop, including posting the 18th-best isolated slugging in baseball last year. Comparables: Don Mincher, Mark Teixeira, Joey Votto Most similar batters through age 25 (from Baseball Reference) Bob Robertson, Carlos Delgado, Mo Vaughn

Benjamin Grimm Apr 19 2013 07:22 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

Okay, so what's up with this guy? A second horrid start in a row makes last year seem much less like an anomaly. Is he again going to stay below the Mendoza line until deep into the summer? Is he becoming a player whose hot streaks, while wonderful, don't compensate for his long periods of hibernation? I had had high hopes that he'd be a long-time All-Star first baseman for the Mets, but that hope has seriously faded. Will he snap out of it? Will Ike be the Mets starting first baseman on their next contending team? Or will they have to move on from him?

Ashie62 Apr 19 2013 07:57 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

Some players are just not worth the aggravation and Ike Davis is one of them....

Edgy MD Apr 19 2013 09:24 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

Disagree.

Ashie62 Apr 19 2013 10:03 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

I'm shocked. He's all yours...

Edgy MD Apr 19 2013 10:15 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

No, actually he's not. Please don't be sarcastic. I just don't see the profit in having Justin Turner or his like at every position. I think that makes sense. You work with who you got until you get somebody in place who eclipses him. OE: I don't understand the issue with aggravation. Is he aggravating because he chases girls and disrespects the flag, or his he just not hitting well enough? I imagine it's the latter. But then, which players are hitting .146 that are "worth it"?

Benjamin Grimm Apr 19 2013 10:21 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

Ike Davis certainly still has potential to be a big impact player. It's just that recent events have been putting that potential more and more in doubt. But as Edgy says, there's no point giving up on him until there's someone better to replace him with. And whether that happens sooner or later depends on Ike. If he starts on a tear tonight and finishes the season with 45 homers, nobody will be talking about replacing him.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 21 2013 09:47 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ike Davis

Everyone goes 3-for-40 (or the like) at some point. That Ike's had his worst stretches at the season's outset two years running just makes them look uglier than they are. If the OBP and K numbers look like last year's at year's end, THEN we can talk. Otherwise... if you want to talk comparables (flawed first basemen with significant offensive upside)... hell, he's making the same money as 34-year-old Carlos Pena, half as much as Mark Reynolds, 1/3 as much as Alex Gordon or Billy Butler, and 1/5 as much as Adam Dunn, Swisher, or Morneau. Even super-bargain post-hype-breakout Oriole Chris Davis is making a little more ($3.3M to $3.1M), and is a year older. Who would you rather have?