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Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Benjamin Grimm May 20 2013 11:35 AM

It looks like there's going to be a lot of talk about Shin-Soo Choo and the Mets over the next few months (unless he signs an extension with the Reds) so let's get this thread started. As I've said before, I pay little attention to out-of-town players, so I'm far from having an opinion on this yet. The New York Mets Need to Sign Shin-Soo Choo This Offseason Yahoo! Contributor Network By Ben Berkon | Yahoo! Contributor Network – Sat, May 18, 2013 2:38 PM EDT COMMENTARY | The New York Mets offense is struggling. The team has a collective .230/.302/.382 triple-slash, with a .684 OPS--which ranks 26th in the major leagues. However, the real issue is with the Mets' outfield. Mets' center fielders have combined for a .530 OPS+ (worst in the majors) and right fielders a .621 (tied for third worst). While Mike Baxter and Andrew Brown, perhaps, deserve a chance to start this season, the Mets need to sign to-be free agent Shin-Soo Choo this coming offseason. Choo was acquired by the Cincinnati Reds in a three-way deal before the season, which sent Trevor Bauer and Drew Stubbs to the Cleveland Indians, and Didi Gregorius to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Choo, a left-handed hitter, quietly developed into a top producer over the past five seasons, owning a .291/.384/.471 line, with a 135 OPS+, 80 HR (about sixteen per season), and 80 SB (about sixteen per season). And even though the Reds are using the 30 year-old in center field, Choo's best position--as according to defensive metrics--is right field (combined 11.0 UZR/150 over 496.6 innings) and left field (-2.5 UZR/150 over 1331.6 innings). Choo joined an already dynamic Reds' offense in 2013, but has certainly made his own mark. The outfielder has posted a .314/.462/.569 line with a 174 OPS+, 9 HR, 19 RBI, 34 R, and 4 SB. His walk rate (15.3%) and OPS+ are career bests. The southpaw has always been a patient hitter, but he's exhibited superior discipline in 2013. Choo is only swinging at 19.8% of pitches outside the zone (compared to a career 24.2%), and has whiffed at just 8.0% of pitches (compared to a career 10.3%). As arguably the best outfield free agent (over Jacoby Ellsbury), Choo will have no shortage of suitors. But that doesn't mean the Mets should back down. Choo has been worth an average of 4.0 WAR in each of the past five seasons, topping out at 6.0 WAR in 2010. Assuming he's a 4.0 WAR player, he might be worth around $70 million over the next five seasons (including yearly inflation of the dollar per WAR). But given the decreasing volume of good free agents (more teams are signing preventative extensions), the Mets--or any team for that matter--would like have to pay a bit more than $70 million for his services. That said, his prospective contract should be more in the vein of what B.J. Upton got (five years, $75 million) than Josh Hamilton (five years, $125 million). If the Mets can sign Shin-Soo Choo for $75-90 million over five seasons, the organization will have added a much needed offensive piece; one that they simply do not possess within their own system.

Swan Swan H May 20 2013 11:36 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

At $90 million the Wilpons may be biting off more than they can Choo.

seawolf17 May 20 2013 11:48 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Pass.

John Cougar Lunchbucket May 20 2013 11:50 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

If you could convince Fred that half of Flushing would come over and watch him play every night I'd be surprised if the Mets didn't sign him (or likely, his cheaper imported version)

Edgy MD May 20 2013 11:55 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

A lot of water to pass between now and then, but seeing a line of .314/.462/.569 makes me kinda delerious. It's for Alderson's team to decide whether that's an illusion, but, like I said, a call for another day.

Frayed Knot May 20 2013 12:15 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

seawolf17 wrote: Pass. A lot depends on a lot of things that go on (or don't) between now and FA season, but a blanket 'Pass' is the one option I would take off the table right now. He's an outfielder (and a good one) which we don't have a lot of at the major or minor league levels, plus he's got bat.

seawolf17 May 20 2013 12:21 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Okay, so "pass" is a bit strong. But that's a lot of money for a guy who's on the wrong side of 30, even though he'd obviously outhit our entire outfield.

Fman99 May 20 2013 12:46 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

I am covetous of Choo.

Edgy MD May 20 2013 12:53 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

You can still do a lot of good for the world after 30. Let's face it --- most free agents are over 30.

Centerfield May 20 2013 01:02 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

I'd be more worried about inflated numbers from that park in Cincy. How was he before this year?

TransMonk May 20 2013 01:04 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Sign Shin-Soo Choo? That's a mouthful.

Frayed Knot May 20 2013 02:03 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

seawolf17 wrote: Okay, so "pass" is a bit strong. But that's a lot of money for a guy who's on the wrong side of 30, even though he'd obviously outhit our entire outfield. Sure, the money will be one of the major factors.

HahnSolo May 20 2013 02:33 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: If you could convince Fred that half of Flushing would come over and watch him play every night I'd be surprised if the Mets didn't sign him (or likely, his cheaper imported version) You might be on to something there.

Zvon May 20 2013 03:16 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

This guy would address a number of problems at once. Gotta take a look see.

Ashie62 May 20 2013 05:46 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Choo has a DUI to his credit..pass

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr May 20 2013 10:32 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Centerfield wrote: I'd be more worried about inflated numbers from that park in Cincy. How was he before this year? .289/.381/.465, 76% stealing and generally good wheels, and a decent corner OF glove. He's a prize. But WE'd absolutely be buying high on him.

John Cougar Lunchbucket May 21 2013 05:05 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

MFS62 May 21 2013 06:17 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

I'd prefer a righty bat with similar productivity, but any port(as in any bat) in a storm. If this team adds many more lefties, FOX will refuse to cover their games. Later

Benjamin Grimm May 21 2013 06:27 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

They may also be subtracting a left-handed batter or two before the start of the 2014 season.

Edgy MD May 21 2013 07:05 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

What I love about the art of the Simps: in their world, even trains have weak chins.

Edgy MD May 21 2013 07:06 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

MFS62 wrote: If this team adds many more lefties, FOX will refuse to cover their games. Like that would be a bad thing.

batmagadanleadoff May 21 2013 07:48 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

The New York Times weighs in: On Baseball Where the Mets Can Start Rebuilding Reds center fielder Shin-Soo Choo could become a free agent after this season. By TYLER KEPNER Published: May 20, 2013 The Mets spent much of last winter insisting, in the words of General Manager Sandy Alderson, that they were not punting on the 2013 season. He had to say it, because admitting the obvious would have been demoralizing for fans and players. But actions told the truth. The Mets traded a Cy Young Award winner a year after letting go of a batting champion. They were the last team to sign a major league free agent, and when they did so in January, it was Shaun Marcum, who took his fragile shoulder to the mound Monday and lost, 4-3, to the Cincinnati Reds. The first batter to face the winless Marcum could be a big part of the Mets’ future. He was Shin-Soo Choo, the Reds’ center fielder, and if the Mets really want to contend sometime soon, they should make a strong attempt to sign him as a free agent after the season. “He’s the big reason why we are where we are right now,” said Brandon Phillips of the Reds, who hold the second-best record in the National League. “Playing against him when he was with the Indians, I always told everybody he’s one of the best all-around players in baseball — underrated. Right now he’s just being himself. It’s a blessing to have him over here.” Choo came to the Reds from Cleveland in a three-way trade for Didi Gregorius, a promising shortstop who landed in Arizona, and outfielder Drew Stubbs, who went to the Indians. Choo was charged with improving the Reds’ leadoff spot, which produced a .254 on-base percentage last season. He has succeeded wildly, with a .455 on-base percentage that ranks second in the league to his teammate Joey Votto. The catch for the Reds is that Choo is almost certainly headed for free agency after this winter. With so many stars signing long-term extensions with their own teams — and Robinson Cano expected to do so with the Yankees — Choo will headline a class that is likely to include Jacoby Ellsbury, Tim Lincecum and Chase Utley. “I sit down with players and say, ‘Look, these are your options,’ ” Scott Boras, Choo’s agent, said Monday. “I kept telling Choo: ‘You’re special. You’re not going to be good every year; that’s not how the game works. But the reality is you’re special. Be patient, accumulate your record, and these are your choices.’ ” Choo had resisted the Indians’ attempts to re-sign him, and he said he was not thinking about a long-term deal right now. More than ever, he said, he has learned this season to narrow his focus to the next pitch, and nothing more. “A lot of people ask me: ‘Do you want to stay in Cincinnati? What do you want?’ ” Choo said. “That’s too far away. We’re not at the end of the season; we’re not at the end of the first half yet. I know why I’m here. Cincinnati gave up two good players, and they want to win a World Series. That’s what I want, too. I’ve never played in the playoffs. I have a good opportunity to play with a good team.” If winning is a priority, the Mets are never a safe bet. But with their foundation of young pitchers, they have some hope, depending on the Wilpons’ willingness to spend. The Mets have $33 million coming off the payroll next season in the expiring contracts of Johan Santana, John Buck, Frank Francisco, Marcum and LaTroy Hawkins. Choo, at least, should tempt them. The Mets’ starting center fielder Monday was Rick Ankiel, who was recently waived by the woeful Houston Astros. Choo, who turns 31 in July, seems to have skills that will age well. He has speed, with three 20-steal seasons, but does not rely on his legs. Plate discipline is his best tool, and one that is increasingly valued. Choo’s .386 career on-base percentage ranks ninth on the active list, and all but one player ahead of him has earned a contract in excess of $100 million in his career. (The exception, Lance Berkman, has earned $116 million, for four teams, over the last nine years.) So if the Mets want Choo, who has nine home runs and has hit as many as 22, it will cost them. Boras, who is not known for discounts, is well aware of his client’s talent. “The amazing thing about his career is that he’s been hidden,” Boras said. “Even in an off-year, his on-base percentage is .350. He’s got a career .386 on-base percentage and an O.P.S. that’s .856. Go around the league and find an outfielder who has, essentially, 15-homer power and an .850 O.P.S. Couple that with a .290 average — that’s rare air.” Choo, who was born in Pusan, South Korea, might be a sensation in New York, whose metropolitan area has the second-largest Korean population in the United States, behind Los Angeles. He signed autographs Monday for a crowd of enthusiastic fans behind the visiting dugout during batting practice. “I’m excited to play with a lot of Korean fans coming to the ballpark,” said Choo, who lives in Buckeye, Ariz. “Maybe a little bit of pressure, but good pressure.” Choo has faced worse. After the 2010 season, he and pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu — now of the Los Angeles Dodgers — helped South Korea win the gold medal at the Asian Games. Choo was facing a two-year military obligation had he failed. The field has been Choo’s destiny since he attended a baseball-only high school in South Korea. The game was a job then, and Choo said he did not enjoy it. Now he does, he said, and he encourages his 8-year-old son to have fun. His only rule, Choo said, is to smile. “The culture in Korea is hard to change,” Choo said. “But I tell my kid, ‘Enjoy it.’ ” The Reds are enjoying Choo, no matter how limited the engagement. The rest of the teams will soon have a chance for a longer relationship. If the Mets are serious, they will explore it. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/21/sport ... .html?_r=0

TheOldMole May 21 2013 09:03 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

If he signs with the Mets, will he be known as Mr. Choo?

Benjamin Grimm May 21 2013 09:15 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

I would just hope that Ralph Kiner gets a chance to ask him about his name.

Ceetar May 21 2013 09:18 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

I presume there's going to be a lot of talk about the Mets and (fill in outfielder who's not dead) over the next couple of months. Hell, I bet there's a column for every free agent outfielder as they play the Mets. I vote Beltran.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr May 21 2013 10:35 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

From a money/length-of-contract standpoint, Beltran would make more sense, it seems? Plus, y'know, Beltran.

Benjamin Grimm May 21 2013 10:44 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

In 2014, Beltran will be 37 in April and Choo will be 32 in July. If you're looking for an outfielder who could hold the position for a year or two, then sure, it would be great to see Beltran come back. But if they want somebody who can be in their outfield for four or five years, then Choo makes more sense. I think you sign a two-year guy when you're a bit closer to contention than the Mets currently appear to be. But maybe things will look different this winter, pending other deals and potential on-field improvement from some of the current players.

Ceetar May 21 2013 10:59 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Benjamin Grimm wrote: In 2014, Beltran will be 37 in April and Choo will be 32 in July. If you're looking for an outfielder who could hold the position for a year or two, then sure, it would be great to see Beltran come back. But if they want somebody who can be in their outfield for four or five years, then Choo makes more sense. I think you sign a two-year guy when you're a bit closer to contention than the Mets currently appear to be. But maybe things will look different this winter, pending other deals and potential on-field improvement from some of the current players. It's hard to understate how much just one more real hitter means to the Mets..and when that players is a likely Hall of Famer? I'm reluctant to commit long term money to outfielders on the wrong side of 30. Despite their recent struggles (and perhaps that's because Beltran expired and they traded Pagan and got burned on Bay/concussion/etc) finding outfielders is one of the easier pieces to find. And I'd rather fill the biggest hole with the biggest plug, rather than just patching it with something that'll work. The Mets can do better than Choo in the next couple of years.

Edgy MD May 21 2013 11:09 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Maybe, but does evidence really suggest that Beltran will be better than Choo over the next couple of years, Hall of Fame or no?

John Cougar Lunchbucket May 21 2013 11:15 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Beltran is never coming back. I mean, he's just not.

Ceetar May 21 2013 11:17 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Edgy MD wrote: Maybe, but does evidence really suggest that Beltran will be better than Choo over the next couple of years, Hall of Fame or no? I think it's more likely. Is it closer to 50% more likely than 100? probably, but you gotta play the percentages. I don't know enough about Choo to guess for sure, but I don't think he's a plus CFer. OBP is one of those things that doesn't fade as fast, so that's nice, but I'm just not sure he's got enough going for him to seek him out. I'd rather make the big commitment to a younger/better player or make the minimal commitment to a guy we know is real good.

seawolf17 May 21 2013 11:19 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Well, you have to figure the money's going to be different. Choo's going to be looking in the $75M+ range over five+ years, whereas Beltran's probably more of a 2 years/$22M kind of package, I'd think. And Carlos has only OPS+ed less than 125 once in the past seven seasons. Beltran's closest B-R similarity score comparison: Andre Dawson. Choo's closest comparison: Bernard Gilkey.

seawolf17 May 21 2013 11:25 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Beltran is never coming back. I mean, he's just not. I remember when you traded me the first time Saying this is it, I've had enough, 'cause like We haven't won a game in a month Now I'm, in a, pennant race. What? Then you come around again and say Baby, I miss you and I swear I'm gonna change Trust me, remember how you went and knocked down Shea I say, I hate you, we break up, you call me, I love you Oooh we called it off again last time But Oooh, this time I'm telling you, I'm telling you We are never ever ever getting back together We are never ever ever getting back together You go talk to Lozano talk To Choo then talk to me But we are never ever ever ever getting back together

John Cougar Lunchbucket May 21 2013 11:33 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

zackly

Edgy MD May 21 2013 11:34 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

seawolf17 wrote: Beltran's closest B-R similarity score comparison: Andre Dawson. Probably his closest knee comparison, too. Beltran was a great Met, whose memory is sadly sullied by the Mets carrying him through a couple of injury years. I imagine all resigning him would do would be to give fuel to the haters by piling a couple of decline years onto that legacy. If the team had every damn piece in place for certain, save one, then yeah, I'd enjoy entertaining the return of Beltran. I think they are awesome, but a lot is far from certain.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr May 21 2013 11:44 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Edgy MD wrote: Maybe, but does evidence really suggest that Beltran will be better than Choo over the next couple of years, Hall of Fame or no? Onfield? Not necessarily. Relative to the financial obligations-- money AND years-- their next contracts will likely involve? Oh, almost certainly. I'm no fanboy-- I like Choo's future more than Beltran's. But I think Beltran-plus-a-free-agent-starter for 2 years, plus 3 years of flexibility is a better place to be than Choo x 6 or 7 at 15-20 per. Moot, though, as I think JCL's on point about Beltran coming back to this particular nepo-team.

John Cougar Lunchbucket May 21 2013 11:49 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

MFYs will employ Beltran to be one of their dozen DHs next year, just watch.

seawolf17 May 21 2013 12:11 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: MFYs will employ Beltran to be one of their dozen DHs next year, just watch. That would SUCK. In all honesty, I'd much rather have Carlos out there at a smaller rate until 2015 than a disabled Choo at $18M per in 2016-17-18.

Edgy MD May 21 2013 12:14 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Fatalism'll kill ye.

batmagadanleadoff May 21 2013 12:15 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: MFYs will employ Beltran to be one of their dozen DHs next year, just watch. So's Carlos can go into Cooperstown with a Yankee cap on his plaque. Natch.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr May 21 2013 12:44 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

"Look at that LWFS-- it doesn't look like he's vomiting so much at all, but there it is, and with such speed. He's so reverse-peristaltically graceful, he makes it look easy."

vtmet May 21 2013 01:41 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

I don't think that I've commented on Choo yet but... Are there any OF options available that can actually hit both LHP and RHP? Choo's almost as bad vs LHP as Ike is...

metsmarathon May 21 2013 01:43 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

so, using only bb-ref's "most similar players through age" as a guide... i'm looking at the most similar players to shin soo choo at age 29 (topped by bernard gilkey) and the most similar players to carlos beltran at age 35 (topped by andre dawson). and i'm looking at the average remainder of the careers of those top six players from age 31 onward, and age 37 onward. it's flawed, i know. the ten players most similar to shin shoo choo at age 29, who were active at age 31, averaged three years of continued play over 371 games, worth 2.3 WAR, with a 0.268/0.329/0.411 slash line and an OPS+ of 94. the six players most similar to carlos beltran at age 35, who were active at age 37, averaged 3 years of continued play over 326 games, worth 2.1 WAR, with a 0.260/0.337/0.439 slash line and an OPS+ of 106 (dale murphy's 26 age-37 games with an OPS+ of 1, , worth -0.9 WAR, tends to hurt the projection) so... based on this highly flawed analysis, you'd probably expect to get about the same total level of production over a three year deal for either beltran or choo, though beltran's production would be higher while he is on the field, and choo being more likely to be on the field forthe duration. mind you, these comparables are really out hte window, as their current production in their age-31 and -36 seasons will upse thte similarity scores a bit. i fully expect, for instance, dale murphy to drop out of beltran's comparables, and an excellent season by choo may also put him into a higher echelon of comparables. but for an early stab in the dark using the wrong type of knife, it's not a wholly unreasonable thing to suggest that there could be a real shoice to be made.

Ceetar May 21 2013 01:59 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

batmagadanleadoff wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: MFYs will employ Beltran to be one of their dozen DHs next year, just watch. So's Carlos can go into Cooperstown with a Yankee cap on his plaque. Natch. It's certainly worked for them, but as a Yankees fan I'd be annoyed at all these guys coming here to pad their stats in a tiny stadium for polishing their career numbers. Beltran has 344 home runs right now. Maybe he finishes at 360. a 2-3 year deal in that place could push him to 450 which would really solidify his case.

Frayed Knot May 21 2013 02:02 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Ceetar wrote: [I don't know enough about Choo to guess for sure, but I don't think he's a plus CFer. Beltran isn't any kind of CFer these days and certainly won't be in coming days. Choo is looking to be decent in CF during this short span with Cincy. Ideally he's a corner OF and absolutely has a plus-arm for RF

Ceetar May 21 2013 02:13 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Frayed Knot wrote: Ceetar wrote: [I don't know enough about Choo to guess for sure, but I don't think he's a plus CFer. Beltran isn't any kind of CFer these days and certainly won't be in coming days. Choo is looking to be decent in CF during this short span with Cincy. Ideally he's a corner OF and absolutely has a plus-arm for RF yeah, I just meant Choo's numbers seem better suited to a centerfielder, not quite the masher you expect from a corner guy. I'd be more willing to sign a guy like Choo for CF. Maybe Lagares or Nieuwenhuis will show us something to be in the running for that job between Beltran and Duda.

Frayed Knot May 21 2013 03:32 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

We are most likely going to be in need of several outfielders.

Ashie62 May 21 2013 04:27 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Ceetar wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: MFYs will employ Beltran to be one of their dozen DHs next year, just watch. So's Carlos can go into Cooperstown with a Yankee cap on his plaque. Natch. It's certainly worked for them, but as a Yankees fan I'd be annoyed at all these guys coming here to pad their stats in a tiny stadium for polishing their career numbers. Beltran has 344 home runs right now. Maybe he finishes at 360. a 2-3 year deal in that place could push him to 450 which would really solidify his case. Beltran aint going to the HOF...

Ashie62 May 21 2013 04:28 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Frayed Knot wrote: We are most likely going to be in need of several outfielders. Yes..and Choo and Beltran are a little old and a little expensive for the task..

Frayed Knot May 21 2013 06:21 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Ashie62 wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: We are most likely going to be in need of several outfielders. Yes..and Choo and Beltran are a little old and a little expensive for the task.. I'm not saying either has to be one of them, only that both, Choo in particular, should be in consideration. In the meantime, if not one of them, I'm sure we're all ready and willing to listen to alternatives.

Edgy MD May 21 2013 07:10 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Free Agent Outfielders are B'low Starry dudes have options. [list:25il86ir]Alfredo Amezaga Rick Ankiel Jeff Baker Jason Bay Carlos Beltran Shin-Soo Choo Coco Crisp * Nelson Cruz Rajai Davis David DeJesus Mark DeRosa Matt Diaz Jacoby Ellsbury Jeff Francoeur Curtis Granderson Franklin Gutierrez Tony Gwynn Jr. Corey Hart Raul Ibanez Reed Johnson * Austin Kearns Jason Kubel * Nate McLouth Nyjer Morgan Mike Morse David Murphy Xavier Nady Laynce Nix Hunter Pence Juan Rivera Luke Scott Ryan Sweeney Andres Torres Chris Young * Delmon Young [/list:u:25il86ir]

Frayed Knot May 21 2013 07:23 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

I just find it funny that, even though this team desperately needs OFers, we're getting preemptive 'NO WAY' comments five months in advance on two of the guys who are likely to be among the best hitters available.

Zvon May 21 2013 07:25 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Frayed Knot wrote: I just find it funny that, even though this team desperately needs OFers, we're getting preemptive 'NO WAY' comments five months in advance on two of the guys who are likely to be among the best hitters available. Agreed.

Edgy MD May 21 2013 08:45 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Mike Morse? No f'n' way. Hunter Pence? Over my dead body. Just thought I'd get that out of the way and narrow things down a little bit more.

metsmarathon May 22 2013 07:06 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

jason bay - why the hell not! his ops+ of 120 would be a big improvement in our outfield menagerie. also, using hte same method i'd used yesterday to compare beltran and choo, he's expected to generate 2.8 WAR for the final 277 games of his career, spanning three years. i think this proves just how deeply flawed my method is. toldjaso! mike morse, 5 years, 4.7 WAR, 517 games (this includes still-active ryan ludwick's stats) hunter pence, 4 years 8.3 WAR, 561 games (this includes still-active torii hunter's stats) curtis granderson, 3 years, 4.1 WAR, 355 games raul ibanez... is too old for end-of-career comparables. they only go up to age 40. jacoby ellsbury, 5 years, 6.4 WAR, 511 games (this includes still-active david dejesus's and shane victorino's stats) ready for a surprise or two...? david dejesus, 4 years, 8.4 WAR, 472 games coco crisp, 4 years, 7.4 WAR, 518 games so... what did we learn? never let metsmarathon play with an ill-conceived, ill-executed tool.

Edgy MD May 22 2013 07:09 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Seattle guys get some decent OPS+ numbers out of some otherwise pedestrian-looking stat lines. That must be one offense-oppressing ballpark.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 10 2013 07:39 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Shin-Soo Choo’s name has arisen before as the man the Mets might spend on this winter, most notably by our John Harper several months ago. As the offseason draws closer, I can tell you that chatter linking the team to Choo is spreading, both around the league and inside the organization. “Hearing Choo is the guy they like,” said one rival executive last week, and he isn’t the only one in the industry making that connection. I ran that by a Mets official who has been briefed on Sandy Alderson’s thinking, and got this response: “I’m hearing that, too.” A second Mets source said that the team liked Choo -- this is no state secret, as the Cincinnati outfielder has a .425 on-base percentage this year (.389 career), with 20 home runs -- but are not interested in engaging in a crazy bidding war for the 31-year-old Scott Boras client. Basically, the Mets really like the player, but are comfortable turning elsewhere if the market outpaces what they expect (this is an unsurprising public position). If the Mets sign Choo, they would not want use him in center field, as the Reds have. Rookie Juan Lagares’ brilliant defense probably prevents the team from spending on that position, and one team source noted that Choo would fit perfectly in right field, replacing the surprising production the team received this year from Marlon Byrd, albeit with a higher OBP. The Mets will probably look to sign or trade for a second corner outfielder. Eric Young Jr. has done well during his extended audition, but the team views him more as a fourth outfielder (and some in the organization would like to see Young at second base more often). Choo is not without his flaws. Ideally, he would be a few years younger -- and hitting better than .209 against lefties this year. You certainly don’t want to make a borderline platoon player your big offseason signing, though Choo’s .242 lifetime average in that category is slightly more comforting. It is important to note that the Mets have not yet begun their formal meetings about free agency, so these ideas are at an early stage. Whatever stage this is, though, people at Citi Field and elsewhere are anticipating that Choo will be a target.

Zvon Sep 10 2013 07:52 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

I'm glad they are hearing it.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 10 2013 04:51 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

The case against Shin-Soo Choo By Matt Meyers | ESPNNewYork.com The Mets have turned their attention to the offseason, amid expectations that the Wilpons will be spending like it’s 1998. And the apple of the Big Apple’s eye appears to be Shin-Soo Choo, the Reds right fielder who was second in the NL in on-base percentage. Choo is a fine player, and I can see why he will generate interest as a free agent, but when I look at Choo I see the next version of Jason Bay -- a 31-year-old outfielder with severe flaws coming of a year he is unlikely to replicate. The biggest problem with free agents -- particularly those coming off of great years -- is that it’s easy to assume that their most recent season is their true level of performance when it’s most likely not. The Mets can look at Choo’s .285/.423/.462 line and think he will repeat that for a few years, but what if his future performance is more in line with his 2011 performance: .283/.373/.441? Or even worse, 2010: .259/.344/.390. Considering Choo’s age, he’s much more likely to get worse than better. That would be palatable if he was starting from the level of a superstar, where he would hit the “very good” and “good” levels on his way down. But when you’re starting from “very good,” your decline phase gets ugly a lot quicker. (See "Bay, Jason".) Another other issue for Choo is that he’s useless against left-handed pitching, hitting .215/.347/.265 versus southpaws this season, not far off his career marks. While that OBP is respectable, it’s fueled by 13 hit-by-pitches. That’s actually a repeatable “skill,” but it also makes him more of an injury risk. Also, that slugging is putrid, so you can forget about extra-base hits against southpaws. You want to pay eight figures per year for that? “But he kills righties,” you might be thinking, and that’s true. The problem is that his weakness can be exploited by lefty relievers late in games, so it’s easy to imagine a situation when the Mets are actually playing meaningful September games and their second-best hitter can be neutralized by the Luis Avilans of the world. Furthermore, Great American Ballpark is a great place for left-handed hitters, with a home run factor of 126 for lefties in 2012. (In other words, lefties hit 26 percent more homers there than at an average park.) Citi Field had a home run factor of 92 for lefties that year, which means lefties homered 8 percent less frequently than at the average park. This plays out in Choo’s numbers, as he has a .948 OPS at home and .823 mark on the road. It’s worth remembering that Bay signed with the Mets after playing in Fenway Park, a perfect spot for right-handed power hitters. Citi Field, not so much. Choo would be leaving an environment perfectly suited to highlight his strengths and going to one that is almost certain to diminish them. Factor in his age and his impotence against lefties, and that’s the recipe for a free-agent disaster. The Mets are in good position to sign Choo because they have a protected draft pick. Therefore, they don’t have to give up their first-rounder to sign him, which makes him, or any high-profile free agent for that matter, a lot more attractive. He’d almost certainly be an upgrade over what the Mets have, but with all due respect to Andrew Brown and Lucas Duda, that’s faint praise. And when you consider that Hunter Pence just got a $90 million contract from the Giants without even testing the free-agent market, it’s probably going to take more than that to sign Choo. If the Mets end up giving Choo the $100-plus million it will likely take to sign him, I have a feeling their front office and fans are going to be severely disappointed. I know Mets fans are tired of waiting, but free agency is not a quick fix, and Choo is by no means the cure for what ails New York.

Edgy MD Oct 10 2013 06:14 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Yeah, everybody has seen that Choo is an intriguing investment but comes with few guarantees. But that "spend like it's 1998," line... yeesh. Set the team up to disappoint, whydon'tcha?

metirish Oct 10 2013 06:49 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

He's not a shoo-in for sure .

smg58 Oct 10 2013 07:00 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

You can't blame the park for Jason Bay. He came unglued, pure and simple. Plus Choo gets a high OPS without a whole lot of home runs, which I would think would make him well suited to CitiField. The three issues are 1) his defense, 2) the likelihood that he will never see a righthanded pitcher in a meaningful late-game situation, and 3) the contract hunter Pence just got. That doesn't mean there isn't plenty to like, it's just that there's a limit to how much I'd spend for him even if payroll really isn't an issue.

Frayed Knot Oct 10 2013 07:08 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

I don't see where Choo's defense would be a concern. I'd rate him above average as far as speed, glove, and arm at a corner and at least passable in CF but he's not likely to see CF here except as a fill-in. The splits, the contract (money & years), the age (32 in July), and just the overall thought that they'd be 'buying high' - yeah, those are all questions.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 10 2013 07:26 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

I think they only Choo-Choo Choose him as part of a particular suite of solutions (he'll need a platoonmate for example, and is prolly less likely to come if we get similar production in a trade or signing elsewhere etc etc). So he's an option but hardly the only alternative.

Edgy MD Oct 10 2013 07:37 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: (he'll need a platoonmate for example... ) Right here, Jonny! Check it out! Seriously man, right here! I'm OPEN!

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 10 2013 07:40 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

I like Brown. I got the idea that Terry liked him less than me.

Edgy MD Oct 10 2013 07:52 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

So, are we putting a number on this guy? Four years, and $48 million? Seems reasonable, but if Puig is any indication, they can get Abreu for that kind of cheese.

Vic Sage Oct 10 2013 08:59 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

he's going to want 7 years at the least, and he'll likely get no less than 5. And if Pence is getting $18m/yr, he's going to want no less than 20M. With the Pence deal as his floor, he'll get in the range of 5-6 years, $18-$20m/yr. so we can talk about $12m/yr x 4, which i think approximates his worth at this point, but its unlikely to be meaningful in terms of reflecting what it will take to get him. just for the record, i agree with Meyers. Pass on Choo unless he falls into our lap with an Edgy-like deal.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 10 2013 09:06 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

With his extreme splits, Choo'd make a neat pick in a Strat-O-Matic all-star draft league. But in real life, this guy'll be fork done by the time the Mets are in the playoffs.

Edgy MD Oct 10 2013 09:37 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Vic Sage wrote: he's going to want 7 years at the least, and he'll likely get no less than 5. And if Pence is getting $18m/yr, he's going to want no less than 20M. With the Pence deal as his floor, he'll get in the range of 5-6 years, $18-$20m/yr. so we can talk about $12m/yr x 4, which i think approximates his worth at this point, but its unlikely to be meaningful in terms of reflecting what it will take to get him. just for the record, i agree with Meyers. Pass on Choo unless he falls into our lap with an Edgy-like deal. Pretty much the strategy the Mets took with Michael Bourn, letting the market come to them, and walking when it didn't take that last step. That's fine and good (anybody have a day this year when you regretted missing out on Bourn?), but as much as I admire the restraint, they're likely to go big on somebody, sooner or later.

Ashie62 Oct 10 2013 09:53 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

I suppose Choo would fall in below Pence.... 5-7 years ??? and not cheap... I still like Nate McLouth better but that is for another thread...

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 10 2013 10:20 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

How on earth is Nate McLouth preferable to Choo, other than the fact he'd command considerably less money (with good reason). Less HR power, slugging and OBP, same struggles vs LH pitching, same age, same defensive issues (less effective as CF as he used to be). I think McLouth might make a good 4th OF but not as someone to revitalize a bad offense.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Oct 10 2013 11:55 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 10 2013 12:42 PM

We have, like, three McLouths already, only homegrown/much cheaper, a little-to-a-lot-better defensively, and with their respective lightning-in-a-bottle decent offensive seasons ahead of them. I like Choo just fine, limitations included. But at the price I'd go for Choo (4-for-$50-52M, or 5-for $60M, TOPS), we ain't getting a Choo.

Vic Sage Oct 10 2013 12:15 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Gesundheit

Edgy MD Nov 08 2013 11:10 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Any late bids on Choo? I was thinking four years and $50 million. I was starting to wonder about how much of a lowball that might be when I opened this thread and saw that I went four years and $48 million a month ago. I'm coming up!

metirish Nov 08 2013 11:22 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Puma from the NY Post Mike Puma ? @NYPost_Mets Boras is trying to push Choo as a $90 million player, according to a person who spoke to the agent. pass at that price

Edgy MD Nov 08 2013 11:27 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Yeah, well, you know he's going to come in high.

Ceetar Nov 08 2013 11:36 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Edgy MD wrote: Yeah, everybody has seen that Choo is an intriguing investment but comes with few guarantees. But that "spend like it's 1998," line... yeesh. Set the team up to disappoint, whydon'tcha? 1998 payroll: $58,660,665

Mets – Willets Point Nov 08 2013 11:43 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo, Let's talk about me and you, Let's talk about all the good things and the bad things he may do, Let's talk about Choo!

dinosaur jesus Nov 08 2013 12:36 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Eschew S. Choo.

Zvon Nov 08 2013 02:00 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

ooo, 90m is crazy. I'd like Choo but not at that price. Whats he 32?

Vic Sage Nov 08 2013 02:13 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Choo is 31 (will be 32 in July), with a massive platoon differential, and big career home/road splits (with the 2 Ohio teams having hitter-friendly fields). I like Choo, but not at $90m. 4yr/$50m sounds right to me, but he'll get more than that somewhere else, so i'm not holding my breath for him, and i certainly don't want us sinking limited resources (perhaps VERY limited resources) into an excessive long-term contract for him.

Edgy MD Nov 08 2013 02:18 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Also seems to have a frame that looks like he'll be carrying x-tra weight going forward. It's a baseball-y frame, but not a frame that looks like he'll be an option for center in two or three years. Built like a thirdbaseman, in fact.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 08 2013 02:19 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

dinosaur jesus wrote: Eschew S. Choo. what he said. lololololllololol

Edgy MD Nov 08 2013 02:27 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

The market may well come back from $90 million, though. It did with Bourn, and he ended up getting the 4/$48 million that's in the range of what we're talking about, and so far he hasn't been looking like a good buy. He also has a $12 million option on a fifth year, which vests with 550 plate appearances in 2016. I could live with tacking that on a Choo deal.

metirish Nov 08 2013 06:03 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Heyman talking even crazier money Jon Heyman Baseball Insider November 08, 2013 06:09 PM In the opinion of one high-ranking Mets official, there's one $100 million-plus player on this year's free-agent market, and that player is Robinson Cano. If the Mets as an organization maintain that position, that could severely limit or perhaps even eliminate their chances to land free-agent outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, who they appear to covet. Several people with Mets connections say the team from Queens has identified Choo as a top target. But the way this market looks at the moment, it's very possible Choo may turn out to be a pie in the sky for them. Choo's agent Scott Boras made clear he is targeting at least Jayson Werth's $126 million, seven-year deal, signed three years ago, as one comp for Choo. Boras, who also represents Jacoby Ellsbury (he doesn't fit the Mets as well since they are happy with Juan Lagares in center field), said in regards to his two top-tier free-agent outfielders, "Carl Crawford (who signed for $142 million over seven years) lives. And Jayson Werth signed for seven years at age 32." Of course, one beautiful thing about free agency is that you never know

Ashie62 Nov 08 2013 07:25 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Choo is a part-time player... 54 rbi's last season lands that kinda dough..yeesh...

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Nov 08 2013 08:05 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

As Jayson Werth's case proves, all it takes is one team to do the pony. And, hey, yes, Choo is 32, but it's a well-preserved 32. Like, pickled, I mean.

Frayed Knot Nov 08 2013 08:24 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Ashie62 wrote: Choo is a part-time player... 54 rbi's last season lands that kinda dough..yeesh... RBIs, always an excellent way to judge a leadoff hitter.

Ashie62 Nov 08 2013 10:53 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Never thought of Choo as a leadoff guy...my error. I do think of him as high grade mediocre....

smg58 Nov 09 2013 02:03 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Hunter Pence just got 5 and 90 to re-up with the Giants, and Choo is generally considered (and rightfully, given the high OBP and .900+ OPS against righties) the more desirable commodity. Somebody will bite, but Choo has enough weaknesses at that price that I won't lose sleep over him.

Edgy MD Dec 19 2013 08:37 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Turned down seven years and $140 million from the Yankees before they went to Beltran. What do you think? Texas?

John Cougar Lunchbucket Dec 19 2013 09:09 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Houston, Texas.

Edgy MD Dec 19 2013 09:19 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

They've certainly pared their payroll down to nothing. He would probably be taking home more than half of their payday expenses.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Dec 19 2013 10:03 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Jon Hey Man mentioned it as a possibility, likened it to when Washington gathered in Werth.

G-Fafif Dec 19 2013 10:18 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Edgy MD wrote: They've certainly pared their payroll down to nothing. He would probably be taking home more than half of their payday expenses. I wonder on how many casual dinners with teammates a Choo or (somebody else doing most of the getting paid) would feel compelled to pick up the tab. Even the minimum guys get ample meal money and make a pretty nice haul.

MFS62 Dec 19 2013 10:41 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Edgy MD wrote: Turned down seven years and $140 million from the Yankees .. What's the Korean translation for "schmuck"? I don't think he's going to get close to that from another team. Just my opinion, and, I may be wrong. LAter

d'Kong76 Dec 19 2013 11:15 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

MFS62 wrote: What's the Korean translation for "schmuck"? ???

metirish Dec 19 2013 11:29 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Edgy MD wrote: Turned down seven years and $140 million from the Yankees before they went to Beltran. What do you think? Texas? Did he cite a lack of respect after turning it down?

Zvon Dec 19 2013 01:00 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

MFS62 wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Turned down seven years and $140 million from the Yankees .. What's the Korean translation for "schmuck"? I don't think he's going to get close to that from another team. Just my opinion, and, I may be wrong. LAter My opinion is that Choo's an idiot. Boros is the schmuck.

Edgy MD Dec 19 2013 01:01 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

May I mention that the game isn't over yet? Jay-Z was looking pretty bad for 24 hours after supposedly marching Cano's team out of talks with Seattle. The next day he had his 10th year. And heck, I applaud anybody who tells the Yankees that they don't have enough money to get him to play for them.

Benjamin Grimm Dec 19 2013 01:04 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Definitely. Are we really knocking a guy for turning down an offer from the Yankees? Everyone should do that!

MFS62 Dec 19 2013 01:11 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Maybe he's just holding out until he finds out if Suzyn Waldmann will be re-joining John Sterling when the broadcasts move to WFAN. Later

seawolf17 Dec 19 2013 01:18 PM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

OH MY GAWD CHOO IS IN HAL'S BAWX

Frayed Knot Dec 21 2013 11:38 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

MFS62 wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Turned down seven years and $140 million from the Yankees .. What's the Korean translation for "schmuck"? I don't think he's going to get close to that from another team. Just my opinion, and, I may be wrong. LAter Not sure how official that 7/$140 was in the first place, but, even if that is accurate, 7/$130 from the stRangers is reasonably close, and once you factor in NYS taxes vs (the lack of) Texas taxes (say that five times fast) it's more than reasonable.

Edgy MD Dec 27 2013 11:02 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Cool bit here about Bill Bavasi owning, and willingly taking it on the chin for, the Shin-Soo Choo trade: More than anything else, the trades that year were just good old-fashioned disasters. There was no specific pressure from above to make any specific move at that time. But I was not operating on the same platform they are now. Without going into great detail ... When I got there it was made REAL clear they didn't want any five-year plans … and that I'd get a mulligan in 2004 but, from then on they'd expect consistent improvement toward a postseason. When I say "improvement" I mean relative to our record. So even though we operated under some pressure to tangibly improve on a regular basis, the Choo and Cabrera trades were a product of my own stupidity and good work by the Indians. By the way, I'm not complaining about the "no five-year plans" attitude. Again, without going into detail ... I knew the score going in. We had good things to say about Choo at the time. We certainly didn't know what we know now -- what a star he'd be -- but our people liked him, knew he had skills, great make-up and a high sense of responsibility. We had good, smart people. I just blew it.

Ashie62 Dec 28 2013 08:39 AM Re: Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

Choo passes Rangers physical....Advance to go and collect 7/130.