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2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada
Benjamin Grimm Mar 14 2013 06:58 AM |
I like Ruben Tejada. I don't think that he's likely to be a future All-Star or anything like that, but he does seem to be good enough to be part of a contending team's infield. He may have a long run as the Mets shortstop, unless Gavin Cecchini says otherwise.
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Ceetar Mar 14 2013 07:06 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
I would love if he 'bulked up' a little, power wise, to get to 30 doubles.
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Vic Sage Mar 14 2013 08:44 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
An empty .275 -- no power, no speed -- with a decent, but not spectacular, glove. He's been a part-timer so far, either due to injury or performance, and i wouldn't be surprised to see him miss 40-50 games again this year. He hasn't broken 2WAR in a season yet, and i see no reason to think he will now.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 14 2013 09:21 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
I seem to remember being a lot more excited about this guy's potential to be something at this time last year but his stock is down in my mind.
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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 14 2013 10:27 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Mar 14 2013 11:23 AM |
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He broke 2 wins last year, as per Fangraphs... starting 2/3 of the season; he was on pace for more than that the year before. His walk rate backslid a lot, but before that had increased in three straight seasons, to just shy of 10 percent (and patience/pitch selection tends only to increase with time, no?). His line-drive percentage and slugging went up-- he's hitting the ball harder; if the patience returns-- even in part-- he'll be better this year... maybe significantly. You want to get rid of a cheap 3-win shortstop? It would be prudent to replace him with someone who's All-Star level, or even cheaper/just as solid; it's tougher than you think. Gimme some bounce-back to a 7-8 percent BB rate, and this: 615 PA, 72 R, .289/.350/.368, 5 HR, 64 RBI, 33 XBH, some kind of clutchy cult nickname
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Edgy MD Mar 14 2013 11:20 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
.304 / .381 / .422 / .794.
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Ceetar Mar 14 2013 11:27 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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what's the fourth number?
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Edgy MD Mar 14 2013 11:38 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Bad math.
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Vic Sage Mar 14 2013 01:28 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
yeah, it should, but it's been .667 so far.
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Ceetar Mar 14 2013 01:39 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
If I'm reading this right, the NL OPS+ in 2012 for SS was 90. So he's not really far off.
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metirish Mar 14 2013 01:51 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
5th in the WRC?
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metirish Mar 14 2013 01:53 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Seriously though
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Ceetar Mar 14 2013 02:00 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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It's scaled like OPS+ in that 100 is average and you go by percentages off of that. It's basically multiplying how much more you get on base than league average by the average runs scored per PA by the league. So last year players scored .114 runs per plate appearance for example. wOBA for the league was .315 (.304 for Ruben, so not great) so if you had a .315 you'd be at 100 if I'm reading that correctly. There are park/league adjustments as well in wRC+.
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Benjamin Grimm Mar 14 2013 02:04 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
I think I would have loved this stuff 30 years ago. Now I don't even care to think about it.
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Edgy MD Mar 14 2013 02:32 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
His WAR is very much a product of his games played --- his injury curtailing his playing time and possibly surpressing his productivity upon his return. The second point is obviously speculative, as is whether you think is injury is indicative of a developing pattern or a harbinger of a chronic impingement on his abilities. Projected over a workload the size of Jose Reyes', for example, you get 2.6 WAR (using the lower bb-ref figure), comparable to Reyes' 2.8. That won't redeem last season, certainly, but it may promise more hope than his injury shortened season provides on its own.
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Edgy MD Mar 14 2013 02:56 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
His comparables through age 22 include some darn good players, including 2/3 of a poem.
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Ashie62 Mar 14 2013 03:30 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Needs to bulk up and play 150 games..Enough with the quad injuries...Bats .270 10SB not much else
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Edgy MD Mar 14 2013 03:53 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
If Buddy Harrelson was the Mets shortstop today, he might get hatfuls of hate.
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Benjamin Grimm Mar 14 2013 03:59 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
I'd hope that they'd cut him some slack. After all, he's 68 years old.
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Ceetar Mar 14 2013 04:07 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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Still got more range than Derek Jeter though.
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Zvon Mar 14 2013 06:24 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
.308 avg/8HR/55rbi/12sb
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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 14 2013 07:00 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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Hatfuls and hatfuls. Longevity and sentiment aside, Buddy was Ruben minus the relative power.
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batmagadanleadoff Mar 14 2013 07:20 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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Frayed Knot Mar 14 2013 07:51 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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Harrelson had, IMO, a better glove & range, better speed (63 BSs of 78 for one 3-year stretch), drew lots of walks (career .091 OBA-BA rate), and did come up just as the most most pitching friendly era since the dead-ball days was reaching its peak. Not that all that made him a great player, just one who was very dissimilar to Tejada.
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Ashie62 Mar 14 2013 09:36 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Maybe Tejada can become the Met Icon Harrelson is..
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Edgy MD Mar 15 2013 09:03 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
I don't mean to suggest he was all that similar, tool-wise.
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batmagadanleadoff Mar 15 2013 10:15 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Mar 15 2013 10:23 AM |
Bud Harrelson was, at his peak, an all-star. He was more than adequate for the era that he played in. It's simply unfair to hold a player from 40 years ago to today's standards. Especially a shortstop, because the demands and requirements of the modern shortstop have likely evolved more so than any other position in baseball.
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Edgy MD Mar 15 2013 10:23 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
And I mean to suggest that Tejada fills those needs at a comparable or better level to Harrelson's fulfillment of two generations ago.
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batmagadanleadoff Mar 15 2013 10:24 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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I'm not disagreeing with anything you wrote on this topic, but I'd add that comparing players from different eras is not necessarily the same as holding a player from one era to the standards of another.
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dinosaur jesus Mar 15 2013 11:19 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Even out of the context of the time, I think Buddy compares pretty well with Tejada offensively. Similar OBP, with a lower batting average but more walks. And he was a better baserunner.
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Vic Sage Mar 19 2013 09:58 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Fangraphs weighs in on Tejada:
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MFS62 Mar 19 2013 09:44 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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This. Later
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Benjamin Grimm Mar 28 2013 11:34 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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Edgy MD Mar 28 2013 12:05 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
A slashity slash line of .080 / .193 / .160 // .353 during spring training will make folks reconsider your future fast.
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batmagadanleadoff Mar 28 2013 12:23 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
I see Tejada as a placeholder. But not a bad shortstop. He's not the Mets worst problem, and besides, where the hell are the Mets going in the near future, anyways when Marlon Byrd is a middle-of-the-order hitter slated for, perhaps, hundreds of PA's?
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Edgy MD Apr 06 2013 02:04 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Gotta be something we don't know about Ruben, right? Somewhere among the dreadful spring, the brief period when the Mets were reportedly considering farming him out to start the season, and the head-seemingly-not-in-the game start he's having to this season, is the answer.
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Ashie62 Apr 06 2013 04:46 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
I hope he is not troubled by something that may be going on at home in Panama...
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Edgy MD Apr 06 2013 08:46 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
He made a slick game-ending play just after I submitted that question, so I can only conclude that I motivated him, somehow.
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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 06 2013 08:50 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Was over at some Metly in-laws (in Phillie country, no less) for most of the day. Brother-in-law insisted after the second error that Terry should bench him tomorrow, no questions asked/answered. I protested-- mostly over the fact that the errors weren't effort-related/approach-related (and the who-plays-short-then issue) but then he asked, "Well, then what do you do?" I had nothing.
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Edgy MD Apr 06 2013 09:00 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Well that's the added challenge of the situation. He might certainly have been farmed out if the team wasn't starved for options. Valdespin has plenty of experience but has established himself as erratic at the position. Turner has nice footwork around second and a decent stick but has very little horizontal range or much of an arm. Quintanilla is a defensible backup, but has little with regard to a future.
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Centerfield May 29 2013 08:08 AM Ruben Tejada |
He doesn't get on base, he doesn't hit for power, he doesn't run fast (and therefore can't steal bases). He doesn't have a strong arm, and this year, he can't even catch the ball. I'm not sure what more we hope to get out of this guy.
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metirish May 29 2013 08:12 AM Re: Ruben Tejada |
He's gotten lazy or something, gotten shit?
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John Cougar Lunchbucket May 29 2013 08:12 AM Re: Ruben Tejada |
Yeah, I'd like to see the team punish Tejada with 2 weeks in Vegas, but apparently there's concern about a lack of organizational SS depth that might make sending Q back down afterward problematic.
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Ceetar May 29 2013 08:14 AM Re: Ruben Tejada |
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Interesting how he's seemingly getting worse every year. the .280/.330/.350 version of Tejada isn't great, but it's average and that's something for a shortstop if he's playing the averagish defense he's capable of..but I dunno what to make of him. Of course, he's still the youngest player on the team (Only Familia younger this year). I don't want to see Quintanilla up here, but I wish we had a Ronny Cedeno type (or hell, play Turner occasionally) to spell him/sit him down.
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Edgy MD May 29 2013 08:15 AM Re: Ruben Tejada |
Turner is a non-option at shortstop, I think. His grace is that he may have more range than Murphy --- which is to say, not much of a grace.
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metirish May 29 2013 08:16 AM Re: Ruben Tejada |
You don't want Quintanilla but would take Cedeno? , for a short spell what's the difference?
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Ceetar May 29 2013 08:30 AM Re: Ruben Tejada |
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Cedeno's actually good, and seemed to perhaps take a step forward last year? Doing well with the Astros too.
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Vic Sage May 29 2013 10:02 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
first of all, Cedeno isn't "good", he's simply a more established major league hitter than Omar, but neither of them are "good" in any objective sense of the word. Omar, however, seems to me a much better glove at SS than Cedeno. But that's all irrelevant since Omar is here and Cedeno isn't. The question is who is best for the Mets to play at SS now?
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Ceetar May 29 2013 02:00 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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well, Cedeno is good, Much much much better than Q but I was on a tangent. The question isn't could Omar have hit better than .210 so far, it's if he'll outhit Ruben going forward. Do you believe in Ruben Tejada as slumping (same goes for Ike probably although at least there are actual hitters you could play there) with likely to play better at any moment, or do you think any success he has was figured out and he's done now? As people so much like to say, 2013 is a lost cause right? So why would you ever play a journeyman/Quad-A player over a 23 year old that's had some success at the position before? There is roughly 0 chance Quintanilla or even Turner is the SS of the future, and however low you think Tejada's chances are, they're certainly not nil. He would be the 6th youngest player on the 51s. You just don't write off a player that young.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket May 29 2013 02:15 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Don't make this too complicated.
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Benjamin Grimm May 29 2013 03:01 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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Yeah, it really is that simple.
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Ceetar May 29 2013 03:03 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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nothing is ever simple.
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Edgy MD May 29 2013 03:19 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Things That Are Generally Simple
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Ceetar May 29 2013 03:23 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Suzyn Waldman? No?
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vtmet May 29 2013 03:52 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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I think that Ruben has already proven that he's a "back up"...or a platoon player...simply not a starting shortstop on a decent MLB team...
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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr May 29 2013 09:14 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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Does this make things simpler, or...
OE: AND there's your Rubin confirmation. Taxi squad, just in case? If more than that-- whether via DL or demotion for young Rube-- who comes off the 40?
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Ceetar May 29 2013 09:24 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Frank Francisco to the 60-day? We haven't heard about him recently have we? We're approaching 60 days at this point anyway.
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Zvon May 29 2013 09:28 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
He led off with an important single and then thought, YES, they wont send me down now. Then he stuck his head back up his ass. In around the 8th he realized he didn't do enough to save himself and started to worry about how he was gonna break the news to his mom about being demoted. In the 9th he saw his out and will call his mom tomorrow and tell her he didn't get demoted. He got injured.
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Edgy MD May 29 2013 09:47 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Things That Are Generally Simple
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Ceetar May 29 2013 10:05 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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Well yeah, his .220/.279/.302 career line fits right in with what Ruben was doing.
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Edgy MD May 30 2013 05:57 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Hey, have a Snickerdoodle, Mr. Bitter Sarcasm.
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Ceetar May 30 2013 07:42 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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dammit, now I want a snickerdoodle. Bitter Sarcasm is my bit. Hell, i tone it down on the internet. Hopefully he comes up and does well. fine with me, I just worry there's inflated expectation from him based on an extremely small sample when he stepped in in an emergency last year. And that people like that his name starts with Q. Maybe he can give us 15 good days and Tejada with rest will get his act together. You can probably get 15 good days, with luck and timing, from anybody talented enough to be in AAA.
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Benjamin Grimm May 30 2013 07:46 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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I thought that your schtick was cockeyed optimism?
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Edgy MD May 30 2013 08:00 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Best way to get the most out of your shortstop, I think, is to try another one when one isn't getting it done. Wonderful motivation. And the first one is still available. And the rest of the team knows you're doing what you can to support their efforts. It's not win-win. It's like win-win-win-win-win! Even if you lose!
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John Cougar Lunchbucket May 30 2013 09:25 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
DL'ed, Quintanilla on his way.
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Benjamin Grimm May 30 2013 12:55 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Nice headline on a New York Times article: First and Short Have That Third-and-Long Feel
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Zvon May 30 2013 05:29 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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BTW, I changed the facts to protect the actual reason Mr T is immature at times. No idea what really goes thru his head. But the end result is the same.
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Benjamin Grimm Jun 28 2013 06:55 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Terry says that when Ruben gets healthy, he's going to Las Vegas or Binghamton, and that he's going to have to win his job back from Omar Q.
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Ceetar Jun 28 2013 07:05 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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that shouldn't be tough. He can probably do that in a handful of rehab games anyway.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Jun 28 2013 07:13 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Terry no like-o Tejadder.
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Frayed Knot Jun 28 2013 07:43 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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Given 200 ML ABs Tejada couldn't prove he can out-play what Quintanilla is currently giving the team, what makes you think he can so easily do so in a handful of Binghamton games? Not that either guy is going to the ASG, but Q's .242/.290/.363 over 91 ABs beats Ruben's .209/.267/.262 over 187
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Ceetar Jun 28 2013 07:57 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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Because Ruben Tejada is a better baseball player, beyond these small samples, and all the data is in his favor. So does any future prospects for these players as well. Quintanilla is not playing particularly well, so why would you stick with the filler guy when you have the guy that's actually worth something and has potential.
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Benjamin Grimm Jun 28 2013 08:04 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
I think a large part of it is that Omar has been playing like he wants to be there (you know Terry likes "energy") and Ruben was, in many ways, going through the motions.
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Frayed Knot Jun 28 2013 08:09 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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Because the fill-in is playing better NOW. Ruben is younger and most likely (hopefully anyway) has a better future but, unless and until Q falters and/or Ruben is tearing it up in Bingo or Vegas, I want to go with the guy making the better contribution at the ML level. That's not the same thing as saying you're betting on him over the next three years, nor will the team lose control of Tejada if he plays the next month or three in either Bingo or Vegas.
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Swan Swan H Jun 28 2013 08:10 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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I also think a large part of it is that Tejada was ten minutes from being demoted anyway, and the clock is stuck at that point. Let him go down there and prove that he's as good as he was in 2010 and 2011, if he can.
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Ceetar Jun 28 2013 08:14 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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The fill in is playing now, certainly. Better than Tejada was when he got hurt? yes. Better than Tejada would if you called him up instead of sending him to the minors? Doubtful. Let's get a fresh start from Tejada, who knows, maybe the leg was bothering him a little prior to actually hurting it. Give him the time he needs to get his timing down, and then promote him unless there is something obvious. And btw, that .529 by Tejada would be better than what Q has done over the last two weeks. (.517)
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Frayed Knot Jun 28 2013 08:19 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
If Tejada wants a fresh start he should be made to show that he's earned a fresh start. That's what Terry (and, by extension, Sandy) is saying and I agree with him/them.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Jun 28 2013 08:20 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
If Tejada gets his head out of his ass, he's a much better player than Omar Q. But I don't mind Terry's tough love even a little. Really he and Ike are the 2 biggest reasons we fell 15 games under .500 this year.
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Ceetar Jun 28 2013 08:26 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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And all I'm saying is that I'm extremely confident that he's going to convince them of that by the time his normal rehab is over. They'll get there and they'll be all "Good job working hard to get back Ruben!" and promote him.
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Swan Swan H Jun 28 2013 08:33 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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You are, but the guy who lived with him for two months isn't.
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Vic Sage Jun 28 2013 08:39 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
what exactly has Tejada ever done, minors or majors, to earn the right for the manager to hold his position open for him? In the majors, over 1336 plate appearances (not a small sample size), he's put up a .326/.321 ops/slg line, with an 81 OPS+ to date. His punchless, speedless offense is matched by his sparkless, disinterested defense, which was further marred this season by numerous episodes of baseball stupidity.
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batmagadanleadoff Jun 28 2013 08:48 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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Am in total agreement and was going to post to this effect, but you beat me to it. And saying that Tejada is better than Q is like saying that Charlie Puleo is better than John Pacella. The fuss over Ruben Tejada perplexes me. I mean, he might turn out alright but you read some of his press, and you could think that he might be the next Ozzie Smith, though thankfully, he's not anywhere near as overhyped as Rey O was.
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Ceetar Jun 28 2013 09:04 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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In his last full year in the minors, in 2009, in AA, he was the third youngest player in the entire league. The average age was 24.3. He was 19. he would _still_ be young for the league. Age has a whole lot to do with it. [url]http://patrickfloodblog.com/2012/02/01/optimistically-projecting-ruben-tejada/ No one's making him out to be the savior, but the only thing Quintanilla has going for him is that Tejada played poorly all around most of this season before getting hurt. Ruben Tejada's career wOBA would still put him roughly middle of the pack in the majors for shortstops, and if this season was just a blip, what he did the last two seasons would be top 10. It's not that he can be Alex Rodriguez, it's that capable shortstops who won't embarrass you are hard to find. Tejada has done that in the past, in a much larger sample than what has happened so far this year. If Terry thinks penance is the minors is going to snap him out of some funk that an injury and rehab didn't, then that's fine, but the numbers and logic don't merit leaving him down there long.
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Vic Sage Jun 28 2013 09:47 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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from Mr. Flood:
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Ceetar Jun 28 2013 10:06 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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correct. The main point is to emphasize the bits about how freaking young he is and why you don't give up on him.
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Frayed Knot Jun 28 2013 10:08 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
But, once again, leaving him in Bingo or Vegas until he gets his shit back together (or until Q falls apart) is NOT the same thing as giving up on him.
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Edgy MD Jun 28 2013 10:43 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Certainly.
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Ceetar Jun 28 2013 11:31 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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Quintanilla has already lost it. If the Mets had ANYONE else to play there..
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Edgy MD Jun 28 2013 11:34 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
Quintanilla has lost the job? I thought he had a nice series. As nice as you can do when you're oh for your last 13.
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Ceetar Jun 28 2013 11:40 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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He's basically doing what he did last year, hot start, and then mostly sinking back to the mean. Last year Tejada showed up before he hit it..this year? This is why I'd rather bring Tejada back BEFORE Q goes into a 11/50 slide. (He's 9/40 since David Wright's players-only meeting after the Cubs loss)
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Edgy MD Jun 28 2013 11:41 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
These aren't large sample sizes.
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Swan Swan H Jun 28 2013 11:45 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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From June 26:
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Swan Swan H Jun 28 2013 11:48 AM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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9/40 is still 16 points higher than Tejada was hitting for the season. In fact, 11/50 is 11 points higher than Tejada is hitting for the season. So, these hideous slumps with which you are damning Quintanilla are just about what yer man Ruben was hitting before he got hurt.
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Ceetar Jun 28 2013 12:01 PM Re: 2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada |
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He's not my man. I don't even particularly like him as a player. Maybe If Quintanilla was hitting better, the Mets wouldn't have to play such sparkling defense to save the game? It's good that he's did it, but on a team that still so desperately needs offense.. Quintanilla is at what, -.3 WAR? sure, not as bad as Tejada was, but that's the past, not the future. This is moot anyway, as Tejada is NOT ready to come up. He's still what, a week away at best? Has he started the lateral movement stuff he wasn't doing yet? Given all that, Terry Collins comments are even less useful, since we all know the situation will likely change by then. After all, we still haven't decided whether Gee or Hefner goes away when Wheeler comes up.
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