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Waiting for Wheeler

A Boy Named Seo
May 31 2013 12:57 PM

Read this by Rubin and it confused me pretty good. If Super 2 status is based on a very specific amount of service time (I've read 2 years, 119 days to be exact), why is there conjecture? Seems there should be an exact date for every player who would be eligible based on their first day of service time. Uh, right?

Rubin's piece:

Execs predict Super 2 'safe' date for Wheeler
May, 24, 2013
MAY 24
6:10
PM ET
By Adam Rubin | ESPNNewYork.com

The Mets are expected to wait until after the Super 2 deadline to promote Zack Wheeler, so the pitching prospect is paid close to the major league minimum and not at an arbitration-influenced rate in 2016. So when is that?

The Mets' projection, at least as of a couple of weeks ago, seemed to be a little bit earlier than some other teams -- somewhere in the early June range, to no later than June 10.

A front-office executive from another team told ESPNNewYork.com that promoting a prospect after June 11 is "mostly safe" and after June 20 is "super safe."

An executive from a different organization estimated June 15 "and possibly a few days later.”

Said a third team's exec: "Mid-late June is usually safe."

So figure about three more starts for Wheeler with Triple-A Las Vegas.

Wheeler is next scheduled to pitch Monday in Vegas against Salt Lake. Assuming he stays on turn with the 51s, that also would give him Pacific Coast League starts on June 1 and June 7. (There is a team off-day June 5.)

So you're potentially talking June 12 against the St. Louis Cardinals at the earliest for Wheeler -- and maybe a few days after that if the Mets want to be extra cautious with the Super 2 date. His debut come come during the following series, against the less-imposing Chicago Cubs at Citi Field.

If the Mets wait until June 17, they can start Wheeler on the road, as they purposely did with Matt Harvey to try to limit the spotlight and pressure. Of course, the Mets would then be in Atlanta -- which happens to be where Wheeler grew up, which might increase rather than diminish the pressure.

Ceetar
May 31 2013 01:02 PM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

it's not an exact date. It's a percentage of some sort. I could dig for the actual specifics, but basically its' a roving date based on everyone's service time across the league and what not.

It's also something that is probably ultimately bought out via contract extensions these days.

Frayed Knot
May 31 2013 01:12 PM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

A Boy Named Seo wrote:
Read this by Rubin and it confused me pretty good. If Super 2 status is based on a very specific amount of service time (I've read 2 years, 119 days to be exact), why is there conjecture? Seems there should be an exact date for every player who would be eligible based on their first day of service time. Uh, right?


The cut-off for "Super-2" players is NOT specific, and it's intentionally not specific for the very reason that teams would use it to take advantage and effectively delay arbitration by a year*.

What it used to be was that ALL players with 3 years or more plus 1/6 of the players with the most ML service time between two and three years.
I believe that got tweaked slightly during the last CBA but it's still along similar lines.

What Rubin is saying is that the Mets are calculating, based on historical data most likely plus other factors, how late in the season a player can be called up and still fall into the 'Under' category after the 2015 season but that other teams might calculate differently. There's no way to KNOW what the "correct" date is because there are too many factors involving other teams' players -- Seattle just sent Jesus Montero down for instance, so he's not presently accumulating ML time even though he's someone who most would have predicted would be up for good after his initial promotion. His specific status probably won't affect Wheeler's (unless he's down longer than expected) but how long he spends in AAA almost certainly WILL affect the "Super-2" class of 2014.




* When arb first was installed it was for all players over 2 seasons. The owners cried poverty during one of the CBA negotiations and, in a rare example of player give-backs prior to the more recent contracts, the Arb deadline was pushed back to 3 years. The owners then immediately did what owners tend to do in most situations and took advantage of the situation by delaying players call-ups until after the season had started effectively making Arb into a Four-Year requirement. Now, not surprisingly, it was the players' turn to call foul at which point the 5/6 vs 1/6 compromise was reached.

A Boy Named Seo
May 31 2013 01:24 PM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

Frayed Knot wrote:
A Boy Named Seo wrote:
Read this by Rubin and it confused me pretty good. If Super 2 status is based on a very specific amount of service time (I've read 2 years, 119 days to be exact), why is there conjecture? Seems there should be an exact date for every player who would be eligible based on their first day of service time. Uh, right?


The cut-off for "Super-2" players is NOT specific, and it's intentionally not specific for the very reason that teams would use it to take advantage and effectively delay arbitration by a year.



Thanks, dudes. Glad it's all on the up-and-up and no teams are using it exactly for the reason of delaying arbitration anyway, cough cough.

Frayed Knot
May 31 2013 02:23 PM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

The difference now is that teams have to guess when the right day is to call up their prospects and save money down the road instead of knowing it.

The kicker is that falling on the "right" side of the arb date yields a much smaller savings (and sometimes none at all) than does the FA cut-off and teams know exactly when that is. Either the player has six full years for that one or he doesn't.

A Boy Named Seo
May 31 2013 02:36 PM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

That big league pay bump would be nice for the handfuls of dudes who are ready to make the leap & being delayed weeks (or months) because teams are clinging to that cloudy super 2 date. Unchill.

Edgy MD
May 31 2013 06:14 PM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

There's just something that really really annoys me about strategically manipulating players service time. I get a twitch every time I read the words "Super 2." I don't quite get why it bugs me so deeply.

batmagadanleadoff
Jun 07 2013 06:59 PM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

Source: Mets eye next Friday for Zack debut
By Adam Rubin | ESPNNewYork.com


Zack Wheeler is expected to make
his major league debut against the Chicago Cubs.


WASHINGTON -- The Mets are eyeing next weekend’s series against the Chicago Cubs at Citi Field, and specifically next Friday’s series opener, for Zack Wheeler to make his major league debut, a baseball source told ESPNNewYork.com.

The date is not set in stone because of factors such as potential rainouts in the interim, but is tentatively set.

Wheeler is due to make what his likely his final start with Triple-A Las Vegas tonight at Tacoma.

Jay Horwitz, the team’s vice president for media relations, flew to the West Coast during Monday’s Mets off-day to prep Wheeler for dealing with the New York media.

Wheeler, 23, is 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA in 11 Pacific Coast League starts.

The Mets have been waiting until after the “Super 2” deadline to promote Wheeler. By ensuring he is not in the first portion of MLB prospects called up this season, the Mets can delay Wheeler’s arbitration eligibility by a year, until after the 2016 season. Either way at this point, Wheeler would not be eligible for free agency until after the ’19 season.

Wheeler’s promotion would come amid solid recent performances by Dillon Gee and Jeremy Hefner, which complicates the decision. Still, the Mets might not immediately need to bounce anyone from the rotation because of a doubleheader on June 18 in Atlanta, which will create the need for an extra starter for one turn.


http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/p ... zack-debut

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 08 2013 11:33 AM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

Kevin Burkhardt wrote:
Look for Zack Wheeler to make his Mets debut in Atlanta during the June 17 series vs Braves.

Edgy MD
Jun 08 2013 11:35 AM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

Yeah, it seemed crazy that they'd debut him at home.

Zvon
Jun 08 2013 11:42 AM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

Yeah, against a shitty Cubs team thats 14 games out. Yeah, let him brew long enough to not be nervous about pitching against the Braves. In Atlanta.

Frayed Knot
Jun 08 2013 12:49 PM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

The Mets are eyeing next weekend’s series against the Chicago Cubs at Citi Field ... for Zack Wheeler to make his major league debut, a baseball source told ESPNNewYork.com.


I love the total non-specific nature of "a baseball source", something that could be used to describe anyone from a fan to a clubhouse boy to Sandy to Bud Selig.

But it is the time of year for such things. Pittsburgh is expected to start, Gerrit Cole, their top pitching prospect sometime this week as well.

Zvon
Jun 08 2013 01:15 PM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

I didn't know Wheeler didn't do well last night :(

Edgy MD
Jun 08 2013 01:23 PM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

That yella stripe on the M in Miami just looks like a yorkie peed on everybody's shirt. Looks worse on white, but stil.

Edgy MD
Jun 08 2013 01:29 PM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

That's the way to get out of it.

Frayed Knot
Jun 08 2013 01:30 PM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

Upon further review, we have a flag here on incorrect thread usage. Fifteen yards and loss of down.

Zvon
Jun 08 2013 01:45 PM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

Frayed Knot wrote:
Upon further review, we have a flag here on incorrect thread usage. Fifteen yards and loss of down.


He can fix that in post production.

Edgy MD
Jun 12 2013 08:11 AM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

To read Wheeler's FB updates, he's stressing out trying to act as ticket agent for all the family and friends wanting to see his first start. Step it up, Mets.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 12 2013 08:14 AM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

They should also invite Dan and Ella Gooden and Nelson Figueroa's dad.

Frayed Knot
Jun 14 2013 07:10 AM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

Final* AAA tune-up for Wheeler = 5-2/3; 1 R; 1 H (HR); 2 BB; 7 K in a game the 51s eventually lost 11-0 (even our proxy bullpens suck)
A no-hit, 1-run, 1-inning AAA debut for Rocket Leathersich (a HBP that subsequently scored), but not so good a day if your name is Gonzalez Germen: 1.1 IPs w/7 earned runs, or if it's Robert Carson: 1 inning 2 earned runs.



* 'Final' meaning at least for now, and hopefully for good.

Ceetar
Jun 14 2013 07:16 AM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

Edgy MD wrote:
To read Wheeler's FB updates, he's stressing out trying to act as ticket agent for all the family and friends wanting to see his first start. Step it up, Mets.


This happens to everyone. I'm sure the Mets are handling it, but family and friends are still going to call _him_, especially since they're going to want to offer their congratulations and tell him they'll be there, etc etc.

Edgy MD
Jun 14 2013 09:31 AM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

Rock solid in his final minor league start (hopefully ever):

5 2/3 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO, 1 HR

Unfortunately, in what hopefully won't foreshadow Metly things to come, that one homer in the sixth inning was enough to get him tagged with the loss, as the bullpen matched the offensive ineptitude down the stretch in route to an 11-0 loss to Tacoma.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 14 2013 10:46 AM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

That thoughtful article by the Tacoma fan who had sympathy for the 51s made it all better though.

Frayed Knot
Jun 18 2013 10:15 AM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

Not surprisingly, Zack Wheeler gets John Sickels' 'Prospect of the Day' treatment.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/6/1 ... but-braves

Swan Swan H
Jun 18 2013 10:17 AM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

Harvey wearing 33, Wheeler 45.... maybe when Montero comes up they should give him 78.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 18 2013 10:31 AM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

Interesting choice. I think I would have given him a number with less Mets history. Like maybe 46 or 38 or something.

Edgy MD
Jun 18 2013 10:48 AM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

Which do you prefer?

[list=1:12yqm6i2][*:12yqm6i2]Harvey and Wheeler
But we need Willie Keeler!

[/*:m:12yqm6i2]
[*:12yqm6i2]Some Wheeler, some Harvey
Now how 'bout some Garvey?!

[/*:m:12yqm6i2]
[*:12yqm6i2]Got Matt and got Zack
We need some Stan Hack!

[/*:m:12yqm6i2]
[*:12yqm6i2]Sure, we got Zach, and damn, we got Matty
But all of the hitters play for Cincinnati[/*:m:12yqm6i2][/list:o:12yqm6i2]

[crossout:12yqm6i2]Harvey[/crossout:12yqm6i2]
Wheeler is supposedly being optioned down after this start as a sort of procedural move to get more guys on the roster before his next start.

Swan Swan H
Jun 18 2013 11:11 AM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

Wheeler will be optioned. Already you're conflating the two greatest pitchers in Mets history, as people will be saying in 2029.

Swan Swan H
Jun 18 2013 11:13 AM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler

Benjamin Grimm wrote:
Interesting choice. I think I would have given him a number with less Mets history. Like maybe 46 or 38 or something.


He came here with the Twitter handle Wheelerpro45, so I guess he's got some history with the number. I think they gave him 65 in the spring so he would get the message right away that he was not long for the big league camp.

batmagadanleadoff
Jun 20 2013 09:57 AM
Re: Waiting for Wheeler



Debut Tuesday: Two Heralded Prospects Get the Call
By Jonah Keri on June 19, 2013 11:04 AM ET



There's something about big-league debuts in baseball that makes them different than first games in any sport. Maybe it's the anticipation built up through years of minor league toil. Maybe it's the wide range of possible outcomes, from no-hitters to Golden Sombreros. From Junior to Strasmas, baseball fans know to drop everything when a big-time rookie finally gets the call.

The promotions of Wil Myers and Zack Wheeler garnered a tiny fraction of the buzz reserved for the likes of Stephen Strasburg and Ken Griffey Jr. — rightfully so. But with both players getting their first taste of the show on the same day, there was no way we weren't going to watch.

[***]

Mets fans scoff at such complaints. The team is on its way to its fifth straight losing season, the lineup is stuffed with Double-A-caliber talent, and the bullpen has been awful for three years running. But Tuesday offered Metropolitan enthusiasts a rare glimpse of a brighter future.

Before Wheeler could make his debut, the Mets called on their other phenom, Matt Harvey. The game was glorious, stupefying, maddening, and, in the end, a huge relief.

The flame-throwing right-hander had already put up Cy Young–level numbers through his first 14 starts of the year, highlighted by a 10-strikeout, no-run, one-hit, seven-inning gem his first time out and a 12-strikeout, one-hit, no-run performance on May 7 against the White Sox, the only blemish over nine innings coming on an infield hit. His first six innings against the Braves Tuesday might have topped those and every other one of Harvey's killer highlights this year. He recorded 18 swinging strikes on his first 80 pitches thrown. The curveball he deployed to strike out Jordan Schafer in the sixth was obscene, though not nearly as filthy as the 90 mph slider that rung up Reed Johnson, a pitch that plunged to his ankles and likely crushed his soul forever.

At that point, the pitch count hawks started squawking. How long should Harvey stay in? Were the Mets thinking about Johan Santana's no-hitter, the one that took 134 pitches to complete but also preceded a season- and potentially career-ending shoulder injury? In a way, it's encouraging to see everyone from managers to the masses thinking about injury prevention and pitcher preservation, in a way that neither did before. But when alarms are getting sounded at the mere hint of a possibility of a pitch count-related decision two-plus innings later, on a strapping, perfectly healthy 24-year-old who has struck out 12 through six innings and is in complete control of the game and himself, we've probably swung too far in the other direction.

That debate became moot in the seventh, when Lucas Duda's indecision clinched Jason Heyward's safe slide into first (it was to avoid a tag, so we'll allow it), netting the Braves their first hit of the game and the Mets their first cringe-worthy moment of the game. This was the story of the Mets season, in one animated incident of buffoonery: Harvey trying his damnedest to bail out his team, only to have his teammates mess it up. (One of the most depressing stats for the Mets: Heading into Tuesday's games, Harvey and David Wright had combined to net about six and a half wins above replacement — about three times what every other Met combined had delivered to the cause.) Mercifully, Harvey wouldn't end the game with his second nine-innings-and-one-infield-hit performance of the year. Two misplays by Wright, combined with some shaky work by the always suspect pen, nearly cost the Mets the game. But Bobby Parnell tossed 1? innings of killer relief, striking out Chris Johnson on a vicious slider with two outs and the bases loaded in the eighth, preserving a 4-3 lead that New York wouldn't give up.

The 23-year-old Wheeler wasn't quite as sharp as Harvey. But he did fire six scoreless innings of his own, which, combined with the Mets scoring six times between the seventh and eighth, proved enough to complete an impressive road doubleheader sweep.

You could see both Wheeler's strengths and weaknesses on display from the start. He started his evening by issuing a leadoff walk to Andrelton Simmons. When he went to 2-0 on no. 2 hitter Jason Heyward, Wright jogged over to the mound, fake-kicked at the dirt, and said something to Wheeler that made the rookie crack a big smile. Five pitches later, Wheeler had his first major league strikeout, fanning Heyward on a 97 mph fastball, up and just enough off the outside corner to land out of Heyward's reach.

This was a theme Wheeler would repeat often throughout the game. Two batters after the Heyward strikeout came a four-pitch walk to Freddie Freeman, with ball four a pitch that nearly sailed to the backstop. But Wheeler's tailing fastball — regarded as by far his best pitch — didn't disappoint. That was the pitch that got Brian McCann in the second (96), the one that mowed down Chris Johnson two batters later (96), and the one that clipped the outside corner against Paul Maholm (96 again) to wrap Wheeler's first-ever three-strikeout inning.

Wheeler walked Simmons again to lead off the third, struggling that inning to locate his curve and slider. The 3-2 fastball to get Justin Upton for the second out of the inning, though? Yet another belt-high, tailing fastball — this one at 97 — that few, if any, hitters could hope to reach. And while Wheeler got by mostly on killer velocity early on, both his command and game plan improved as the game wore on. He broke two bats on inside fastballs, firing pitches right at catcher Anthony Recker's targets. When McCann came up in a big spot with the score tied 0-0, a runner on second, and one out, Wheeler started pounding in more fastballs. When McCann looked like he might have a read on the heater, Wheeler grasped the hitter's timing and first-base-open situation and unleashed a nasty, biting curve in the dirt. McCann was awarded a walk, though replays suggested he may have gone around for strike three. Either way, it was a great sign for a young pitcher learning how to pitch.

After a mound consultation, Wheeler got a chance to work out of his own jam. Running the count to 2-2 on Dan Uggla, Wheeler again threw an unpredictable pitch, a wicked, 90 mph slider that the Braves second baseman swung through for strike three. Since throwing his third- (or fourth-) best pitch for strike three in the biggest spot of the game wasn't quite enough, Wheeler slung a 1-0 fastball right in on Chris Johnson's fists, inducing an inning-ending popout and preserving the rookie's six shutout innings.

The end result was a 6-1 Mets win, the fifth-ever MLB debut of six-plus innings and no runs for a Mets starter, and a Grade-A beer shower from his teammates at game's end. More than that, the day offered a glimmer of hope for a franchise that sorely needed one. One Mets fan on Twitter described the doubleheader sweep and the knockout performances by Harvey and Wheeler as the team's best day since clinching the NL East in 2006. "Better than the Santana no-no, the only no-hitter ever thrown in the franchise's 51-year history?" I asked. "This is better," he replied. A no-hitter is fleeting, he said, but this could be the day he and his orange-and-blue-wearing pals look back upon in a few years.

Let's hope so. For Mets fans, the past has been filled mostly with heartache and loss. Here's to a bright Harvey-and-Wheeler future.


http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-trian ... t-the-call