Master Index of Archived Threads


Adventures in Closerland

Frayed Knot Jun 11 2013 07:33 AM

I've been tracking closers this year with the idea of getting some season-long data on save situations and the percentage of successes and failures*. So towards that end I've been checking out box-scores and line-scores of games other than ours and marveling sometimes as the stuff that goes on in late innings and how it's so much easier to take when you don't have a personal stake in the result. To wit, last night in Tampa (well, actually it's in St Pete): - In a game that started with the BoSox jumping to a 6-0 lead before Rays hurler Alex Cobb could record the first out, and one that was well past the three-hour mark by about the 7th inning ("Forget Jake, it's Beantown"), the Rays fought all the way back to tie the game at 6 in the bottom of the 8th (Sox got seven hits in the 1st then two total in innings 2-thru-9 ... sound familiar folks?). Anyway, game goes to the 10th and the Sox score twice in top half and in comes 'designated closer' Andrew Bailey for the relatively simple (near 90%) two-run save. Except that Bailey starts the inning: HR, Walk, Walk, Single, Walk and now not only has Tampa tied the game but the bases are loaded, none are out, and, oh yeah, Evan Longoria is due up. But Bailey stays in (he was already Boston's 6th pitcher) and gets Longoria to hit into a 5-2-3 DP and then gets the next hitter as well and it's on to the 11th!! Sox later won it in the 14th. Game clocked in at 5:24 * But you're going to have to wait until the season is over for the results

cooby Jun 11 2013 08:04 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

I have a particular horror of relief pitchers, so I am going to enjoy this thread

Frayed Knot Jun 20 2013 07:46 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Philly will supposedly listen to offers for closer Jonathan Papelbon as the trading deadline approaches. (no, I'm not suggesting him for Queens). Funny thing is that the Phils aren't totally out of things and even had a chance to move ahead of Washington this week if they swept the head-to-head series. Only problem is that Papelbon chose this series to get his first TWO blown saves of the season. Phils actually came back to win one of the games after he served up a tying HR in the 9th. Not so lucky last night though as the Phils went on to lose in extras on an Ian Desmond Grand Slam. Pitt's Jason Grilli-- exhibit A in the argument that you never know where the next dominant closer is going to come from--blew his first save of the season last night in Cincy by giving up a 1-out HR to Jay Bruce. Grilli, a 36 y/o in his 11th ML season with his 6th team, was 25-for-25 [1.10 ERA; 0.765 WHiP] in saves opps prior to last night despite coming into this season with 5 career saves. Pitt also lost in extras and missed a chance to pull with a 1/2 game of Cincy for 2nd (they play again today) and within 3 games of StL in what suddenly looks like the toughest division in baseball.

Frayed Knot Jun 23 2013 08:20 PM Re: Adventures in Closerland Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jun 24 2013 05:56 AM

Papelbon wasn't the only closer to have a tough weekend. - Tigers DFA'd Jose Valverde and will almost certainly be looking for someone between now and the trading deadline. Remember that they essentially released him following last year's series of playoff disasters before giving him another shot once the season started. - And in Saturday's DBacks/Reds game, closers Heath Bell and Aroldis Chapman took turns sucking. Bell was handed a one-run lead but immediately gave up a walk followed by a 2R HR to Jay Bruce leading off the top of the 9th. He got out of the rest of the inning without further damage. So then it was Chapman's turn to try and win the game with a one-run lead but instead handed the [crossout:3nxgz8r6]Reds[/crossout:3nxgz8r6] DBacks a walk-off win with an inning that included two hits + two walks + a wild pitch without ever recording an out. Some days you just never know.

Edgy MD Jun 24 2013 05:55 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

You mean, he handed the Diamondbacks a walkoff win.

Frayed Knot Jun 24 2013 05:56 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Yeah, that. oe: And speaking of Chapman, something seems to have gone wrong with his control lately. He was handed the "Cookie Save" on Sunday (one inning, three run lead) and almost gave it away even after getting the first two outs. So with two out and none on he proceeded to give up a single, then a steal and an RBI Single, then Wild Pitch-ed that guy over, then HBP'd the next guy, then finally got a fly out with the tying runs on. Maybe those consecutive pitches he winged over Nick Swisher's head a few weeks back during the Reds/Indians series really were accidental.

Frayed Knot Jun 25 2013 06:51 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Another rough game for Papelbon as the Phils move out to the west coast. This was wasn't entirely his fault ... but he contributed. Cliff Lee was cruising toward a CG w/a 3-0 lead but when he started the 9th Single-Double, out came the hook. So in comes Papelbon who immediately gives up a 2-RBI single then plunks the next guy. He then got a GiDP with the tying runner moving on to 3rd but w/2 outs ... and a passed ball brought him home. He then walked the next guy before getting the 3rd out which prevented the Phils from losing it right there. They instead lost it in the 10th inning with De Fratus on the mound bringing them to just 3.5 ahead of the Mets That's 4 blown games in a week for Papelbon who's both losing his value to the Phils (8 games out of 1st and falling) and on the trade market at the same time.

Ashie62 Jun 25 2013 08:20 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Would Parnell be for sale... That kid Montero running up the organiztion has master of his fastball working 91-93 9 tops but may be too slight of build to start...And he's cheap!!

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jun 25 2013 08:36 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

With that control and stuff? Montero will almost certainly start, start, and start again until he can't start anymore, slight build or no. Mejia or Familia or Leathersich, though?

Edgy MD Jun 25 2013 08:38 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

If Parnell is to be moved, it probably isn't going to be this year.

Ashie62 Jun 25 2013 10:30 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: With that control and stuff? Montero will almost certainly start, start, and start again until he can't start anymore, slight build or no. Mejia or Familia or Leathersich, though? Problem with Montero is he has no slider and a subpar curve, decent change and serious heat..Sounds like a closer to me. Well. everything comes to a head..

Frayed Knot Jun 26 2013 08:53 PM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Erstwhile closer Carlos Marmol was DFA'd by the Cubs on Tuesday not long after blowing that 3-run lead against the Mets. Signed by the Cubs in 1999 and with the big club since 2006, he had racked up 117 saves over the years (3rd in club history) including 20 last season but they apparently got tired of his increasing unreliability. And now MLBN is saying that he's been picked up by the Braves. oe: Marmol to Braves info apparently NOT accurate.

Frayed Knot Jul 06 2013 06:50 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Ollie Perez notched his second save of the season last night. Came in to start the 9th inning with a 2-run lead in Cincinnati and K'd the side (Jay Bruce, Todd Fraizer, Derrick Robinson) on 11 pitches.

Frayed Knot Aug 07 2013 07:02 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

The Phils brought in Papelbon with a four-run lead last night vs Chicago and he almost blew it. 3 runs via two singles, one double, a walk, a wild pitch, and an E-7 brought the Cubs to within one when he got the final out on a fly out with runners on 1st & 3rd. Wonder if his teammates signed up for that - or if he's just going to go with the 'non-save situation/no-adrenaline' excuse? Too bad either way, Mets could have taken over 3rd place if the Cubs pulled it out.

Zvon Aug 07 2013 01:50 PM Re: Adventures in Closerland

I watched the end of that game. Brown dropped and easy fly ball and even the Phils yakboxes (booth) were wondering if Pap would say nasty things after the game, especially if they lost it. As far as I can see he behaved.

Frayed Knot Aug 08 2013 07:28 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Perhaps with visions of 2011's late-season collapse dancing in their heads, the Braves have been riding Craig Kimbrel HARD lately despite the HUGE lead they have in the NL East. They actually held him out of Monday's game vs Nats and let Jordan Walden close even though it was a 'save situation' (and just a one-run lead at that) but that was Kimbrel's only day off in the last six and they went to him again with a three-run lead in the 9th last night where he survived but only after an arduous 36-pitch trial. In all he's thrown a total of 99 pitches over the last five games/six days - including twice where the Braves had three-run leads.

Frayed Knot Sep 06 2013 02:56 PM Re: Adventures in Closerland

The Closer: Not Quite as Important as You Think Nothing new about that concept of course, but you wonder if this idea will finally gain a bit more traction because of it being printed in the NY Times. Tyner Kepner uses last night's Sox/Yanx game as a kick off point - the one where Mariano failed to convert a save while Koji Uehara continued his (somewhat short) run as a near flawless closer in Boston which includes, according to what I heard last night, the highest percentage of perfect (1-2-3) innings this season. Some of the quotes are kind of fun to read: -- “I don’t want to take away anything from what I did,” Dennis Eckersley said Thursday before the game. “But it’s not as tough as you think.”, and I like that the piece attempts to debunk the idea that 9th innings are so much different than any other (Uehara was Boston's 3rd choice for the job) something I suspect 98+% of media-types repeat as if gospel. And even though the current season is not yet over, it's still tough to remember some of the really bad deals/trades signed over last winter: - Brandon League & Jonathan Broxton- both around 3 yrs/$22+ mil - Boston trading for (and assuming the contracts of) Andrew Bailey (last year) and Joel Hanrahan (this year). None of the four are closing

Edgy MD Sep 06 2013 03:01 PM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Heath Bell broke the Marlins before they even got the whole kit out of the box.

Frayed Knot Oct 15 2013 08:14 PM Re: Adventures in Closerland

[u:3mfbkr2n]Kloser Kwiz[/u:3mfbkr2n] Over the most recent three seasons (2011, 2012, 2013) I count [u:3mfbkr2n]60 different pitchers[/u:3mfbkr2n] who served as their team’s primary closer -- and for purposes of this question, the primary closer is the one who leads his team in saves for that year Of those 60 - 35 led a team in saves for only one of those seasons - 20 led a team in saves exactly twice over those three years - Which of course leaves just [u:3mfbkr2n]Five Closers[/u:3mfbkr2n] who led a team [u:3mfbkr2n]in each[/u:3mfbkr2n] 2011, 2012 & 2013 Kwiz A) Can you name the TWO from that group of five who led [u:3mfbkr2n]The Same Team[/u:3mfbkr2n] in saves the last three years? Kwiz B) Can you name the other three; - two of whom led two different teams during that span (obviously that means he led one team twice and one team once) - and also the one guy who led three different teams once each?

Edgy MD Oct 15 2013 08:31 PM Re: Adventures in Closerland

A) Kimbrel and, um, what's his name... Stumpy Joe.

Frayed Knot Oct 15 2013 08:33 PM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Part A -- Kimbrel & _________ Part B: Led Two Teams ______ & _______ Led Three Teams _______

Edgy MD Oct 15 2013 08:33 PM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Chris Perez.

Frayed Knot Oct 15 2013 08:37 PM Re: Adventures in Closerland

I figured Perez would be the tough part - if for no other reason that no one here pays a lot of attention to the Indians. By the end of this season, Perez had lost his closers job (and been busted for having pot Fed-Exed to his house). Part A -- Kimbrel & Chris Perez Part B: Led Two Teams ______ & _______ Led Three Teams _______

Rockin' Doc Oct 15 2013 09:39 PM Re: Adventures in Closerland

For leading two teams I will take a shot with Joe Nathan with the Twins and Rangers.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 15 2013 09:40 PM Re: Adventures in Closerland

B: Frank Frank and K-Rod?

Frayed Knot Oct 16 2013 06:57 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Remember that the answers here have to have lead some team in saves over the last three seasons. Edgy got the only two who led the same team all three years, the remaining three we're looking for were also the main closer three years running but did so for different squads (in two cases for two teams, in one case for three). - Nathan is not correct because he missed a big chunk of 2011 (Matt Capps led the Twins that year). - Neither KRod nor, more obviously, Frank-Frank led any team in saves this year. Francisco did have two years running prior to this season (2011 w/Jays, 2012 for the Mets). Rodriguez hasn't been a team's main closer since the day he decided it would be a good idea to punch out his F-in-law back in 2011.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 16 2013 07:23 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Papelbum (Phils, Bosox)

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 16 2013 07:28 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Houston Street (Rockies, Oakland)

Frayed Knot Oct 16 2013 07:41 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

And now we're left with only the guy who somehow led THREE teams in saves over the last three years: aka - thanks for saving our games ... now get out. Part A -- Kimbrel & Chris Perez Part B: Led Two Teams Papelbon & Street Led Three Teams _______

HahnSolo Oct 16 2013 08:17 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Soriano?

Frayed Knot Oct 16 2013 09:59 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

HahnSolo wrote: Soriano? Nope. He did lead the Nats in saves this season and the Yanx last year, but back in 2011 he was a mere $12 mil/yr set up man for Mariano.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 16 2013 10:23 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Heath Bell?

Frayed Knot Oct 16 2013 10:50 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Heath Bell? 2011 with Sandy Eggo 2012 for Miami 2013 for the Snakes Big-butted Bell wound up losing the closer job about halfway through this season (he didn't finish 2012 at the Marlins closer either) but his replacement, Brad Ziegler, fell just short of catching him for the Arizona saves lead. The Mets, btw, are one of Nine teams to have a different saves leader in each of the past three seasons: RED SOX -- (2011 - 2013) Papelbon, Aceves, Uehara ROYALS -- Soria, Broxton, Holland ASTROS -- Melancon, Myers, Veras NATIONALS -- Storen, Clippard, Soriano METS -- Rodriguez, Francisco, Parnell MARLINS -- Oviedo, Bell, Cishek CARDINALS -- Salas, Motte, Mujica ROCKIES -- Street, Betancourt, Brothers GIANTS -- Wilson, Casilla, Romo

Frayed Knot Oct 17 2013 05:09 PM Re: Adventures in Closerland

The results of my year-long look into closers and saves (it’s not nearly as nerdy as it sounds - just a few minutes each day gathering the previous night’s results) My motive behind this is mainly that I was just plain curious. Simple raw save numbers and even save percentages are often flawed because obviously not all save situations are created equal. So in order to make them more equal-ish I chose to count only the single-inning saves that have come to define the modern save opportunity and closer usage. IOW, I included only those situations where a fresh pitcher was brought in at the beginning of a close-out inning with a lead of three runs or less. No multi-inning saves; no saves where the closer comes in mid-inning w/runners on; none where he needs to get fewer than three outs. And what I wanted to know about these saves were three things: 1) Was it a one, two, or three run save situation? Obviously in addition to seeing what the overall odds for success are, those odds should be quite different depending on the size of the lead. 2) Was the save successful? Doesn’t matter how ugly as long as the team got out of the inning with the lead and therefore the win. 3) Was the save “perfect”? Since, in addition to complaining about how often their closer blows saves, a common complaint from fans is about how often their guy makes them sweat by putting runners on base. So I wanted to know how common the 1-2-3 inning was in one-inning saves. What I found was this: All Saves Combined - 1,239 Opportunities Pct Saved 87.8% Pct Blown 12.2% Pct Perfect 35.4% An easier way to look at this is that, out of every eight save opportunities: - approximately three are saved in 1-2-3 fashion - four are saved but with some degree of drama added - and one of the eight is blown Broken down further: One Run Saves - 525 Opportunities Pct Saved 80.4% Pct Blown 19.6% Pct Perfect 38.5% Two Run Saves - 396 Opportunities Pct Saved 90.4% Pct Blown 9.6% Pct Perfect 37.4% Three Run Saves - 318 Opportunities Pct Saved 96.9% Pct Blown 3.1% Pct Perfect 27.7% So if you just want to round things off, what you should expect to get out of an average closer is about 1 blown save in every 5 chances when handed a one run lead, about 1 blown out of every 10 when given a two run lead, and the right to demand his immediate flogging when he lets a three run opp get away. I suspect most fans would guess that the percentage of perfect saves would be higher to the point where 1-2-3 innings outnumber the flawed ones even though ‘Not Perfect’ is more common by nearly a 2-1 margin. One thing I found interesting was the higher pct of perfect innings in the closer games. One run saves were slightly more likely to be perfect than were two run saves and each was considerably more common than in three run outings. Pitching to the score?

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 17 2013 06:58 PM Re: Adventures in Closerland

I do think PTTS happens but it's prolly impossible to quantify. You know, for example in a 1-run save you'd be less likely to challenge a slugger wheras the 3-run lead practically encourages it as a practice.

Frayed Knot Oct 17 2013 08:11 PM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Yeah, I think a PttS claim makes a lot more sense in a one-inning situation then say the one the Jack Morris-for-HoF crowd makes in an attempt to explain his high-ish career ERA. The last thing you want to do when coming in to a game with three outs to go is to walk a guy, something which could lead to more hittable pitches. That a single base-runner wouldn't even bring the tying run to the plate in a three-run game might explain why the biggest gap in perfect/not-perfect innings is between the two and three run leads while the gap between one and two is virtually non-existent. It's also possible that managers sometimes don't always use their top reliever in three-run games. My little study here didn't discriminate as to whether the pitcher coming in fresh to start a close-out inning had the 'Proven Closer' stamp on his forehead or not. In some cases, and at least theoretically more often in three run leads, the guy being brought in could be someone giving the regular closer a day off.

Edgy MD Oct 17 2013 09:27 PM Re: Adventures in Closerland

You should make a paper of this.

Frayed Knot Oct 18 2013 07:21 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Edgy MD wrote: You should make a paper of this. I thought I just did. Guys who led their teams in saves in 2013 but didn't start the year in that role Uehara - Boston (Hanrahan) Benoit - Tigers (Valverde) Brothers - Rockies (Betancourt) Jansen - Dodgers (League) 2013 saves leaders who didn't finish the year in that role: Perez - Indians Wilhelmsen - Mariners Veras - Astros (traded) Parnell - Mets (injury) Mujica - Cardiinals Bell - DBacks

Frayed Knot Oct 29 2013 11:42 AM Re: Adventures in Closerland

Final installment here deals with one-inning saves in NYM games Mets had 42 one-inning save opps and converted 37 of them (88%) including 19 of 23 one-run saves (82.5%); 9 of 10 two-run saves; and 9 of 9 three run saves 11 of the 42 opps (24%) were 'perfect' saves Aardsma = 0 saves / 1 opportunity Black = 1/1 Familia = 1/1 Francisco = 1/1 Hawkins = 13/14 Parnell = 21/24 On the other side, NYM batters had an opposing closer come in to try and shut down a game 48 times with Met bats spoiling 11 of those (77% save rate), including 7 of 18 one-run saves; 2 of 15 two-run saves; and 2 of 15 three-run opps. So the bottom line is, that no matter how much we complain about our closers never being good enough or 'making us nervous' even when they are, NYM closers, despite losing their main guy and replacing him with a 40 y/o, survived those one-inning close-out situations at a rate just about even with the majors as a whole. That doesn't mean the bullpen as a whole was great (although it certainly got better as the year rolled on) but that in one inning duels they were just fine. Also that Met bats got to other closers more often then opponents got to ours, even to the point where there were only 10 three-run saves blown all season in MLB and Met bats were responsible for two of those. Mets busted up saves by: Apr 7 - Marlins - Steve Cishek -- Byrd’s 2-RBI single scores Tejada & Nieuwenhuis http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 4070.shtml Apr 24 - Dodgers - Brandon League -- Wright’s 2-out single ties the game. Later won in the 10th on Valdespin’s GS http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 4240.shtml May 3 - Braves - Craig Kimbrel -- Wright’s HR ties the game with one out. Mets win in the 10th http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 5030.shtml May 28 - Yanx - Marinao Rivera -- Murphy’s Double, Wright’s Single, Duda’s Single all with no outs http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 5280.shtml Jun 16 - Cubs - Carlos Marmol (3 Run Lead) -- Byrd’s leadoff HR then Nieuwenhuis’s 3R HR http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 6160.shtml Jun 22 - Phillies - Jonathan Papelbon (2 Run Lead) -- Valdespin HR and latera Murphy RBI Single ties the game. Mets lose in bottom 9 on Frandsen’s HR off Torres http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 6220.shtml Jun 25 - White Sox - Addison Reed -- Wright scores on a 2-out dropped pop-up to tie the game. Mets lose in the bottom half (Hawkins) http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 6250.shtml Jul 1 - DBAcks - JJ Putz -- Byrd’s leadoff double + Satiin’s single ties the game in the 9th. Mets win in the 13th http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 7010.shtml Jul 4 - DBacks - Heath Bell & Chaz Roe -- Arizona scores in the top of the 13th, Recker’s HR off Bell w/2 outs ties it. Arizona agains scores in the 14th, Niewenhuis’s HR ties it. Mets lose in the 15th as finally the Snakes (Brad Ziegler) convert their 3rd save chance of the day. Zeigler pretty much becomes their regular closer after this game. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 7040.shtml Sep 18 - Giants - Casilla/Romo (3 run lead) -- Santiago Casilla, then Sergio Romo, can’t hold a 3-run lead and Satin’s 2-RBI single wins in a walk-off. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 9180.shtml Blown NYM one-inning saves: Apr 29 - Parnell (vs Marlins) -- Double, Single, Sac Fly ties the game Mets go on to lose in the 15th http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 4290.shtml Jun 4 - Parnell (Nationals) -- Three hits and a Sac Fly http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 6040.shtml Jul 22 - Parnell (Braves) -- Mets take a 1-0 lead into the 9th but Parnell gives up 3 singles and a passed ball. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 7220.shtml Aug 2 - Aardsma (Royals) - In the first NYM save attempt after Parnell goes down, Aardsma gives up a leadoff double and eventually a game-tying Sac Fly in a game the Mets eventually won on Young’s HR in the 11th. It was Aardsma's last save opportunity. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 8020.shtml Aug 14 - Hawkins (2-run lead - Dodgers) - Andre Etheir’s 2R HR in the 9th tied the game in LA. Mets go on to lose in the 14th http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 8140.shtml