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KTE-Mini, 6/21-6/23: Philling Holes

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Jun 21 2013 10:43 AM

The Breakdown:

The season's only just turned to summer, but to Phils fans, it must seem like it's been the longest day of the year for at least a month now. They've seen the long shadow of the DL all season long; Halladay's gone for the year, Utley's been gone for a month, and Ruiz has been around less often than opposing scouts checking out Cliff Lee as a rent boy. Even the ones who've made it to the field more often than not-- Howard, Rollins, Mike Adams-- have been gritting their teeth when they swing or throw.


"I never thought I'd be doing this [Purses lips]... but it's really kind of fun." [Unbuttons shirt slowly] [Puts on another team's shirt]

It's not surprising, then, that for the last month, they've been squeezing out a product that belongs in cans with white labels. They've been bad-if-not-humorously-bad with both bat and glove: 18th in the league in team wOBA; 19th in pitching WAR/23rd in ERA. They've made... um... interesting personnel decisions: Young pitch-to-contact specialist Jon Petitbone pitches to way too much contact (36 hits-- 12 for extra bases-- in 25 innings over the last month) and keeps his rotation slot; older, higher-ceiling Tyler Cloyd comes up, delivers 4 Quality Starts (that are actual quality starts) in 6... and gets sent back down.

So how are they just shy of .500, 5 games up on Metsie, and a full 4 games above their Pythagorean projections? Probably a big, griddle-fried, sauteed-onion-stinkin', pork-byproduct-crusted pile of chopped, Grade B luck. But don't tell Ruben Amaro that.

"If I have to make changes, it's about going sideways," Amaro said. "If I have to go sideways to get better for later on, then that's something I have to consider."


LET'S GO HALF-MEASURES! [Clap, clap, clapclapclap]

The Ups:

-- RF Domonic Brown. .271/.316/.536, with 19 HRs, and 8 SBs in 9 tries. There's more breakout here than in a roomful of 13-year-olds watching The Great Escape.


Not pictured: Ball, hiding in the clubhouse closet. Because it's scared.

-- 3B Michael Young. .290/.357/.402 doesn't seem like much... but in 66 games! This guy! In the field, no less!

--Um... Mayberry? Kevin Frandsen? Or maybe one of the guys-- Steven Lerud? Cesar Hernandez-- who achieved his life's dream by reaching the majors for a week? LET'S GO, PERSPECTIVE! [Clap, clap, clapclapclap]


"SOME THINGS ARE MORE IMPORTANT, GUYS! [Sexually assault mailbox]"

The Downs:

-- Guys In Masks. Erik Kratz (.229/.290/.436, with iffy defense) and Humberto Quintero (.245/.288/.367, with iffier defense) have been pretty tough to stomach (22% combined CS%, 0.3 combined WAR). Between that and a Kratz owie last week, the situation's gotten so dire that Carlos Ruiz was forced back into action from a half-healed hamstring injury (he's "almost running normal")... and he's toting sub-.300 OBP and slugging numbers for the abbreviated season.

-- OFs Who Are Not Domonic Brown. What's your flavor? Big and mediocre? Little and squirmy and swings at everything? Or wide and likely diabetic and swings at everything?

-- Training/Medical Staff. FIRE THEM ALL! BOO! BOOOOOOOO!


"See, kids, what you have to do is lift with your back."

The Matchups:

Friday, 6/21: Oklahoma OK vs.
LHP Cole Hamels (15 GS, 94 IP, 2-10 record, 4.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 89 K/28 BB, 12 HR allowed, 89 ERA+): Living behind in the count this year, and getting pounded-- especially by right-handers-- where he lives.


? No one knows what it's like... to be the bad man... to be the be the sad man... behind purse dogs ?

Saturday, 6/22: Gee, You Smell Unhorrific vs.
RHP Jonathan Pettibone (11 GS, 61 1/3 IP, 3-3 record, 4.40 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 38 K/21 BB, 8 HR allowed, 89 ERA+): On the plus side, he's around the plate a lot; on the minus side, he's around the plate a LOT, and has some of the league's worst swing-and-miss numbers. Three subpar starts in his last four, which-- along with the low upside-- has people considering bringing up... um... an old friend to replace him in the rotation.

Sunday, 6/23: HarveyDay! vs.
LHP John Lannan (4 GS, 19 2/3 IP, 0-1 record, 5.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 11 K/3 BB, 1 HR allowed, 72 ERA+): Staten Island's Own. After a month on the DL, he's just excited to be back.


"Sure, I'm a pro, but I'm not sticking my neck out for these guys."

Catching Up With The "Guys?" In The Bullpen (brought to you by Camel In The Office)



"Some of these Guys, guys, turn over like they're ballpark franks in a dryer. Guys like sinister Antonio Bastardo, sore Mike Adams, and simian Jonathan Papelbon, you know, probably. Guys like Chad Durbin and Raul Valdes? They used to work here, but not anymore. Guys like Justin De Fratus are great at striking out minor-league hitters, customizing their paddles, and giving wedgies to new Guys like Jake Diekman. Guys like Michael Stutes and Joe Savery, you've seen them before, but you don't know where exactly-- it's okay, they get that a lot. You don't like these Guys? Just wait a month."


LGM.

Swan Swan H
Jun 21 2013 10:57 AM
Re: KTE-Mini, 6/21-6/23: Philling Holes

Last night my son pointed out that if the Mets sweep they will be tied with the Phils in the loss column - but still two games behind, by virtue of having played four fewer games.

The Mets and Twins have played 69 games each. The Red Sox and A's have played 75 each, and five other teams have played 74. I know the weather has been a big factor, but this seems like a pretty big gap for this stage of the season.

Edgy MD
Jun 21 2013 11:14 AM
Re: KTE-Mini, 6/21-6/23: Philling Holes

Or any stage.

It seems like every team in the division is messing with each other. They're all in dire straights but maybe trying to let on like it's not so dire, because they're all in dire straights. I'm not sure that, if somebody offered me any team in the division, the Phils aren't at the bottom of my list.

That's on paper. In reality, I don't touch the Nats.

vtmet
Jun 21 2013 11:14 AM
Re: KTE-Mini, 6/21-6/23: Philling Holes

Swan Swan H wrote:
Last night my son pointed out that if the Mets sweep they will be tied with the Phils in the loss column - but still two games behind, by virtue of having played four fewer games.

The Mets and Twins have played 69 games each. The Red Sox and A's have played 75 each, and five other teams have played 74. I know the weather has been a big factor, but this seems like a pretty big gap for this stage of the season.


I really don't get how the Phils are surviving...They are 11th in the NL in "Runs scored" with only 3 more runs scored than the Mets, who have played 4 less games; and the Phils have the 2nd to worst ERA in the NL at 4.22 (only the Brewers are worse)...If you were to take Cliff Lee's 2.53 ERA and 9-2 record & Dom Brown's 19 HRs away from the Phils; I think that you would have an old version of the Marlins runs scored vs runs allowed results...

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/sta ... /league/nl

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Jun 21 2013 11:19 AM
Re: KTE-Mini, 6/21-6/23: Philling Holes

It's weird. Usually, if there hasn't been any big, overarching story that's been in the real news, when I do these things, I'll start out looking at the numbers-- season and recent-- and see if anything jumps out at me. And this go-round... it just didn't make sense. I mean, in terms of standouts/injuries, they're worse off than we are.

And, really, it's got to be either a massive bit of luck (4 games over what RS-RA says is yuge at this point in the season) or great management... and even the decision-making has seemed iffy.

vtmet
Jun 21 2013 11:20 AM
Re: KTE-Mini, 6/21-6/23: Philling Holes

Edgy MD wrote:
Or any stage.

It seems like every team in the division is messing with each other. They're all in dire straights but maybe trying to let on like it's not so dire, because they're all in dire straights. I'm not sure that, if somebody offered me any team in the division, the Phils aren't at the bottom of my list.

That's on paper. In reality, I don't touch the Nats.


I think that the Braves are showing that you can win in the NL with good pitching and Homeruns...which isn't really that far off from what the Giants and Cards have done over recent years (although the Giants pitching outside of SF hasn't been too solid this season)...

Edgy MD
Jun 21 2013 11:32 AM
Re: KTE-Mini, 6/21-6/23: Philling Holes

Bullpenning too.

One thing about the Braves, with Uggla in the past and this year with 2-4 different guys, they'll keep running a dude out there who's hitting under .200. If they keep gamely working at it and hitting the occasional homer, they get to stick around and the team hopes the rest of the team can pick them up. They seem organizationally disposed to putting crisis in perspective.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 21 2013 11:35 AM
Re: KTE-Mini, 6/21-6/23: Philling Holes

Yes, one of the few things that's keeping me a believer in the 2013 Mets is my sense of just how damned unimpressive almost every other team is.

I mean, we've seen complete shit talent-poor fakers like the Yankees near 20 games over .500. The Braves who we could have and maybe should have taken 4 of 5 from are running away with the NL East.

And of course many of the teams we've struggled against have been bad themselves, like the Marlins. It's almost as though Cincinnati might be the only team out there not faking it every night.

This Mets team has enough wrong with it to make a prediction of glory foolish but 1973 happened once.

Zvon
Jun 21 2013 03:39 PM
Re: KTE-Mini, 6/21-6/23: Philling Holes

Good job, thank you LWSF.

Frayed Knot
Jun 21 2013 04:57 PM
Re: KTE-Mini, 6/21-6/23: Philling Holes

Hamels may claim to be pitching (somewhat) better than his 2-10 record indicates - but also indicated is that he's pitching demonstrably worse than his previous self.
ERA: 2011 = 2.79; 2012 = 3.05; 2013 = 4.40
WHiP = 0.97; 1.12; 1.27
BB/9 = 1.8; 2.2; 2.7
HR/9 = 0.8; 1.0; 1.1


And take a look at these splits for Domonic Brown
April - .233/.309/.372; 3 HRs
May = .303/.303/.688; 12 HRs -- that's right, ZERO walks for the entire month (109 PAs)
June = .269/.342/.507; 4 HRs -- and those June HRs were all by the 8th of the month. Since then he's 5 for his last 37, all singles

Fman99
Jun 21 2013 07:31 PM
Re: KTE-Mini, 6/21-6/23: Philling Holes

So, let me get this straight. I can sexually assault my mailbox?

Ceetar
Jun 21 2013 07:48 PM
Re: KTE-Mini, 6/21-6/23: Philling Holes

Or any stage.

It seems like every team in the division is messing with each other. They're all in dire straights but maybe trying to let on like it's not so dire, because they're all in dire straights. I'm not sure that, if somebody offered me any team in the division, the Phils aren't at the bottom of my list.

That's on paper. In reality, I don't touch the Nats.


In terms of going forward, you have to seriously consider the Mets as the team you want to be.

I don't know if the Braves are going to falter enough for a miracle '73 run, but with the Mets pitching..

starter ERA in june: 3.35
reliever ERA in june: 3.84
mets runs per game in june: 3.47

If they could just mix in one good hitter, or a one and a half..they should be comfortably outscoring their runs allowed.