dWAR

MFS62
Jun 28 2013 08:13 AM

When the Mets played the LA earlier this month, I got into an arguement with the VYF in my office about who was the better defensive First Baseman - Keith Hernandez or Don Mattingly. They were two of the best I've ever seen. So I decided to check out Baseball-Reference. I was shocked by what I saw.
First, I looked at players who passed the eyeball test as superior defenders at some other positions
to see if the dWAR ratings were consistent with their reputations. Here's what I found:
3B - Brooks Robinson - 38.8 , Clete Boyer - 21.5
ss - Ozzie Smith - 43.4
2B - Bill Mazeroski - 23.9 , Bobby Grich - 16.2
OF - Clemente - 12.1 (surprisingly Joe DiMaggio 3.2, but in a shorter career and Al Kaline - 2.5 in a long one)
Seemed to pass the eyeball test.

But when I got to the first basemen, I was astounded:
Keith Hernandez 0.6
Don Mattingly MINUS 6.8
So I looked at Gil Hodges Minus 5.4

What is it about first base dWAR that seems to cause dWAR to measure two of the greatest fielding first baseman the way it did?

Maybe this would be something to be discussed at the next SABR meeting.
I'd like to know what they say.
Later

Chad Ochoseis
Jun 28 2013 08:44 AM
Re: dWAR

A couple more good defensive 1Bs and their dWARs from Baseball Reference:

Wes Parker -3.0
J.T. Snow -11.2

The explanation says that the dWAR includes a "position adjustment". I suspect what that means is that 1B, because it's a less demanding position than the "average" position, has a baseline negative value. So it takes a Keith Hernandez-level 1B to contribute as much defensively as, say, a league average 3B. And even a good 1B is going to have a negative net defensive value.

MFS62
Jun 28 2013 08:55 AM
Re: dWAR

Position adjustments?
Doesn't a first baseman handle more chances than players at other positions? (Except maybe catcher on a strikeout staff)? That means more chances to make an error.
But they are comparing those guys I looked at to the average schlub replacement first baseman. Are they awarded wins when they dig a throw out of the dirt, range into the hole to start a double play or dive to stop a "sure double" down the line that those schlubs wouldn't have done?
Doesn't make sense.
Maybe, as you said, the definition of that "average" first baseman is different. Why should it be when it comes to wins contributed by their defense? A win is a win.
Later

Ceetar
Jun 28 2013 09:10 AM
Re: dWAR

It's all positionally adjusted. There's definitely a baseline and it's definitely negative for first baseman. These things are very much a work in progress, although people ARE making progress. I think first basemen, and catchers, are two of the trickier ones. It's trickier to measure, statistically, the value of framing pitches and digging throws out of the dirt.

Height plays in too. I suspect you could find a correlation between player high and dWAR at first base. (and long arms) A player with a long reach is actually shortening the distance of a throw and increasing the size of the target the thrower has to not make an error.

dWAR is a fielding stat, but so much of what first baseman do is not fielding.

Edgy MD
Jun 28 2013 10:05 AM
Re: dWAR

It makes lots of sense. First base may be the position that handles the most chances, but it's clear that he makes the least difference defensively of anybody on the field. Ergo, the least talented defenders (Lucas Duda) gravitate there.

Put the worst shortstop --- say, Justin Turner --- at first, he's more or less going to handle it. Put the best firstbaseman --- Hernandez (there is no argument to made on this subject) --- and it's a long, long night ahead.

Frayed Knot
Jun 28 2013 10:07 AM
Re: dWAR

dWar = Dionne Warwick's street name from back in her banger days.

seawolf17
Jun 28 2013 10:20 AM
Re: dWAR

DON MATTINGLY SUCKS

Edgy MD
Jun 28 2013 10:30 AM
Re: dWAR

Yeah, thanks. There's that.

Edgy MD
Jun 28 2013 10:34 AM
Re: dWAR

Firstbaseman of the last 30 years who were better than Mattingly:

[list:1g1aekvk][*:1g1aekvk]Hrbek[/*:m:1g1aekvk]
[*:1g1aekvk]Clark[/*:m:1g1aekvk]
[*:1g1aekvk]Snow[/*:m:1g1aekvk]
[*:1g1aekvk]Brogna[/*:m:1g1aekvk]
[*:1g1aekvk]Buckner (yeah, I said it)[/*:m:1g1aekvk]
[*:1g1aekvk]Probably Segui[/*:m:1g1aekvk]
[*:1g1aekvk]Mark Grace[/*:m:1g1aekvk]
[*:1g1aekvk]Wally Joyner[/*:m:1g1aekvk][/list:u:1g1aekvk]

Jon Olerud, half asleep in footie pajamas, was better than Don Mattingly.

batmagadanleadoff
Jun 28 2013 10:37 AM
Re: dWAR

Edgy MD wrote:

Jon Olerud, half asleep in footie pajamas, was better than Don Mattingly.

Sometimes, I think that John Olerud is one of baseball's most underrated players. And that's saying something, because he's regarded, rightfully so, as a star. But however good they say he is, or was, he was even better.

Edgy MD
Jun 28 2013 10:45 AM
Re: dWAR

Put Jon Olerud on the 1973 Mets, and you'd be selling them real hard.

But he's a damn crappy neighbor.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Jun 28 2013 10:50 AM
Re: dWAR

I don't think that Oly is regarded as a star by anyone who didn't root for one of his teams. I'd wager that most fans who haven't looked at the numbers/seen him up close for a long spell would probably rate him below, say, Grace or Garvey or Gil... when, really, he's right at the HoF borderline in Keith/Tony Perez/Bill Terry land.

Edgy MD
Jun 28 2013 11:09 AM
Re: dWAR

Keith/Tony Perez/Bill Terry

Crappy neighbors all, I'd wager.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Jun 28 2013 11:41 AM
Re: dWAR

Oh, you mean Hits-On-Your-Wife-In-Front-Of-You, Dumps-His-Trash-In-With-Yours-And-Pretends-He-Can't-Quite-Understand-Your-English, and Poisoned-Your-Barking-Dog-With-Arsenic?

Swan Swan H
Jun 28 2013 11:53 AM
Re: dWAR

batmagadanleadoff wrote:
Edgy MD wrote:

Jon Olerud, half asleep in footie pajamas, was better than Don Mattingly.

Sometimes, I think that John Olerud is one of baseball's most underrated players. And that's saying something, because he's regarded, rightfully so, as a star. But however good they say he is, or was, he was even better.

I couldn't agree more. Todd Zeile had a pretty good year in 2000, but I would have loved to have Oly on our side in the 2000 WS, rather than frittering his time away in Seattle.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 28 2013 11:55 AM
Re: dWAR

...fuming at his neighbor's tree.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Jun 28 2013 12:03 PM
Re: dWAR

A neighbor like, say, Sisler or Cepeda might not have minded the obstructed view so much. But Olerud? And that eye?

dinosaur jesus
Jun 28 2013 12:22 PM
Re: dWAR

What I loved about Olerud was how well he kept it secret how awesome he actually was. (I could identify with that.) From the attention he got (outside of 1993), you'd think he was just a poor man's Mark Grace--a Hal Morris. The ultimate example of that is what happened in 1996. He didn't have a good year, but he was the best player on the Blue Jays. And they didn't think he was even a major leaguer (with cash for Robert Person?). And that's how my favorite player landed on my favorite team--and suddenly they were good again. What a coincidence.

It's always disappointing when you find out your hero is actually a jerk. But with this tree business he's being a jerk in a very Olerud-like way--quietly, politely. And that's kind of wonderful.

Edgy MD
Jun 28 2013 12:33 PM
Re: dWAR

Jon Olerud was benched in game three of the 1993 World Series. In a season in which he hit .363, reached .473, and OPS'd 1.072, they sat him during a World Series Game. One of their best players was DH Paul Molitor, and they had to play him somewhere during the National League games.

Rather than say, "Hey, Ed Sprague, it's hard to be you," Cito Gaston got a little more democratic, benching Olerud one game, and Sprague the next two. Robbie Alomar got no games off and neither did Molitor. Olerud had the dignity and the humility to take that crap with nary a peep.

But he couldn't find the grace to tolerate his neighbor's tree?

metsmarathon
Jun 28 2013 01:03 PM
Re: dWAR

DAMNIT! i just had a good response and it got clicked away to the ether by me closing a tab i wanted to switch to. razzafrazzafriggafragga.

anyways...

dWAR is flawed, imo.

to get dWAR, you take Rfield (the sum of all defensive runs above average for a player) and add to it the positional adjustment (Rpos) and then do some runs-to-wins conversion that's approximately the same as dividing by 9.5.

for an exactly average defensive firstbaseman, in an average year, he'll have a Rfield of exactly zero runs. the positional adjustment for a first baseman for a full season is about -9 runs. so this exactly average defensive first baseman will have a dWAR of (0-9)/9.5 or about -0.9. it does not make a whit of sense for an average player to be sub-replacement level.

for an offensive player, it makes sense. the exactly average 1b has 0 offensive runs above average. his positional adjustment is -9 runs. but his replacement value is 23 runs. so overall, this firstbaseman with exactly average offense is worth 14 runs above replacement, or about 1.5 oWAR.

for comparing defensive players at a given position, Rtot and Rtot/yr are probably better.

keith has the highest Rtot, at 120. helton is at 106 and pujols is at 105. olerud is fourth at 97. mattingly is way down at 33.

keith's Rtot/yr is at 8, compared to 7 for helton but 10 for pujols. olerud is also at 7, while mattingly is at a paltry 3.

pujols has the highest single season Rtot for a first baseman, at 25 in 2007. he shared second place, with 18 Rtot in 2008, with rod carew ('82), todd helton ('00), and vic power ('60). olerud is tied with some other guys with 17. mex topped out at 16.

in 2000, john olerud has a Rtot of 10. in 2000, todd zeile had a Rtot of 10, but dipped down to 1 in '01. in 446 games at first base, mostly late in his career, todd ziele had a Rtot of 12, with an Rtot/yr of 4. why, yes, that does compare favorably to donnie baseball.

ike davis also sits at 4 Rtot/yr.

in 70 games as a first baseman, mike piazza had an Rtot/yr of -22. yikes!

Swan Swan H
Jun 28 2013 01:21 PM
Re: dWAR

I prefer Gwar to dWAR. This is 'Bloody Pit of Horror.' The title is taken from a Howie Megdal article on the Mets bullpen.

[youtube:3sxkgdzz]lNyvMjohI94[/youtube:3sxkgdzz]

Edgy MD
Jun 28 2013 01:25 PM
Re: dWAR

Edgy MD wrote:
Firstbaseman of the last 30 years who were better than Mattingly:

[list][*]Hrbek[/*:m]
[*]Clark[/*:m]
[*]Snow[/*:m]
[*]Brogna[/*:m]
[*]Buckner (yeah, I said it)[/*:m]
[*]Probably Segui[/*:m]
[*]Mark Grace[/*:m]
[*]Wally Joyner[/*:m][/list:u]

Jon Olerud, half asleep in footie pajamas, was better than Don Mattingly.

Oh, and
[list][*]Helton[/*:m]
[*]Pujols[/*:m][/list:u]
Plus...
[list][*]Isaac Bashevis Davis[/*:m][/list:u]