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Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

Edgy MD Jul 02 2013 10:13 AM

Or is it like a no-hitter, and we ruin it if we mention it?

Frayed Knot Jul 02 2013 10:20 AM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

I brought them up in another thread a few days ago - but it's fine with me if they have their own. Their walk-off win in the 14th on Sunday gave them an ML Best 51-30 record in their quest to at least finish above .500 for the first time in more than two decades and, at best, hold on to their division lead and their 100+ win pace. As we all know, they looked like they were going to bust through at various points over the last couple of seasons as well before falling apart late. Last year they were 45-36 at this point before hitting a high of 16 games over on July 28th (58-42). Then an 11-17 August and a 7-21 September killed it for them.

HahnSolo Jul 02 2013 10:26 AM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

Reminding me a bit of last year's Os. Veteran manager, strong division, average to young lineup with guys ready to put it all together, closer who comes out of nowhere and is virtually untouchable. Yeah, that's my story. They are this year's 2012 Orioles. Book those playoff play-in (or whatever that one game thing is called now) tickets, Bucco fans.

Edgy MD Jul 02 2013 10:31 AM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

That closer has REALLY come out of nowhere. He's a ahead of Scott Rice in his off-the-turnip-truck status, but not much more than that. Grilli's been a major leaguer for a decade, but mostly an ineffective one. Now he's carrying the bullpen of the best team in the majors? Back when we saw them, they really look like a lot of other pretenders --- Braves, Yankees up until a few weeks ago --- in that they seemed to be running half a lineup out there most nights. I figured, like the Yankees, the realities of playing Hide the Scrubs would catch up with them, and the seemingly more well rounded Cards and Reds would knock them down to size. It's almost July 4th and this hasn't come to pass.

Ceetar Jul 02 2013 10:31 AM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

Building too big a cushion for them to fall below .500 looks like. Shame. The Pirates not being bad sorta rocks my world. Water is no longer wet, ice is no longer cold, boobs are no longer cool..wait, that's still true. I was 10 during their last winning season. I have vague memories of them being good and playing the Mets and Van Slyke was a cool name. But I guess the fans deserve it, even if they are all mostly dirty Penguins fans.

Mets – Willets Point Jul 02 2013 10:35 AM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

Party like it's 1991.

dinosaur jesus Jul 02 2013 10:55 AM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

My feelings are a little mixed here. I'm happy that they finally have a good team. It's good for baseball, good for Pittsburgh, and it must be a great experience seeing them winning in that fine new ballpark they have. But I grew up in Pirate country in the seventies, and hated them--hated the stupid uniforms, hated that drawling cornball Bob Prince, hated that "We Are Family" crap, hated Kent Tekulve's tinted pervert glasses. One of the fondest memories of my baseball life is game 4 of the 1979 Series, when I was rewarded for suffering through a long, cold day at Three Rivers, surrounded by Western Pennsylvanians yelling for Scrap Arn and Teke, by getting to see Teke, called in to protect a three-run lead with the bases loaded, getting knocked around the yard by one Orioles pinch hitter after another. That was the last game the Orioles won (and the last World Series game the Pirates have lost), but at least I got to be there. It wouldn't be right to hate them like that now. I hope they finish well this year, and at least make the postseason. And I hope it's not a fluke, and that they can put three or four more good years together. Then maybe I can get some of my old loathing back.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 02 2013 11:23 AM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

It's funny how familiarity can breed contempt. I certainly have more disdain for the Phillies and the Eagles than I would if I didn't live in the Philadelphia suburbs.

Frayed Knot Jul 02 2013 11:52 AM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

HahnSolo wrote: Reminding me a bit of last year's Os. Veteran manager, strong division, average to young lineup with guys ready to put it all together, closer who comes out of nowhere and is virtually untouchable. ... Also like the 2012 Orioles, out-playing their pythagorean projections (5 games at the present) but so far showing no signs of reverting to the norm. Last year's O's finished the season 11 games ahead; 93 wins for a team that out-scored its opponents by just 7 runs for the year.

dinosaur jesus Jul 02 2013 12:11 PM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

Frayed Knot wrote: HahnSolo wrote: Reminding me a bit of last year's Os. Veteran manager, strong division, average to young lineup with guys ready to put it all together, closer who comes out of nowhere and is virtually untouchable. ... Also like the 2012 Orioles, out-playing their pythagorean projections (5 games at the present) but so far showing no signs of reverting to the norm. Last year's O's finished the season 11 games ahead; 93 wins for a team that out-scored its opponents by just 7 runs for the year. Which is why I expected them to fall back this year. But they haven't, I'm glad to see. It's funny sometimes how teams that win more games than they should one year--that really aren't that good--really are that good the next year. Like the 1984 Mets, who had no business winning 90 games. What's funny about that season is that the Pirates did the same thing in reverse. Their Pythagorean had them winning 87 games, but they actually lost 87. And then in 1985 they were legitimately terrible.

Ceetar Jul 02 2013 12:27 PM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

dinosaur jesus wrote: Which is why I expected them to fall back this year. But they haven't, I'm glad to see. It's funny sometimes how teams that win more games than they should one year--that really aren't that good--really are that good the next year. Like the 1984 Mets, who had no business winning 90 games. What's funny about that season is that the Pirates did the same thing in reverse. Their Pythagorean had them winning 87 games, but they actually lost 87. And then in 1985 they were legitimately terrible. This is just me theorizing, and I'd try to test it if I had the time and hadn't destroyed my database, but I wonder if it's a function of younger players coming into their own. Not quite getting there, but climbing that final step. Like McCutchen for instance although my theory more applies to pitchers. They pitcher real well, most of the time, but fall apart big on occasions. This creates a game or two or even a bad week where everything goes crazy wrong and it throws the pythagorean off-kilter. Call it the "Manny Acosta factor" since last year people were harping on the Mets out-performing but really they were pretty close if you simply released Manny Acosta.

Ashie62 Jul 02 2013 01:12 PM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

Excellent pitching with a lockdown bullpen....Pedro Alvarez is the mashing 3B...

dinosaur jesus Jul 02 2013 01:29 PM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

In the case of the 1984 Mets, I think it comes down to there being three good to excellent pitchers in the bullpen (Orosco, Sisk, and Gorman), but only one good starter; outside Gooden, the starters were mediocre to awful. If a starter did okay and handed it over to the good relievers, the Mets had an excellent chance (that team was an insane 11-1 in extra innings). If not, the second-line relievers came in to make things even worse. Lots of close wins, lots of blowout losses. Even Gooden fit that pattern. He was fantastic in his wins, and even better in his no-decisions (and the Mets won four out of five of those), but his ERA in his losses was over 9. That's way oversimplified, of course, but I think it at least partly explains what happened. There's also just dumb luck. Dumb luck is a force in this world, and I make my prayers to it every day.

Edgy MD Jul 02 2013 01:33 PM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

Walt Terrell was no baloney sandwich.

Zvon Jul 02 2013 01:56 PM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

If I ever seriously turn my back on the Mets again, this is a team I would have no problem embracing. Ive always been a Davey fan in a Goliath world.

HahnSolo Jul 02 2013 02:15 PM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

Frayed Knot wrote: Also like the 2012 Orioles, out-playing their pythagorean projections (5 games at the present) but so far showing no signs of reverting to the norm. Last year's O's finished the season 11 games ahead; 93 wins for a team that out-scored its opponents by just 7 runs for the year. Without any proof, I would guess that their closers pitching out of their minds contributes a lot to both last year's Os and this year's Pirates out-playing pythagorean projections.

Frayed Knot Jul 02 2013 02:39 PM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

The thing about Pythagorean variations (plus or minus) is that I don't think there's any one trend to constantly beat and/or fall short. Bullpens are often cited but I wonder some time if a [u:333b8ahx]bad pen[/u:333b8ahx] can ofter skew things to the good as 4 and 5 run leads become 1 and 2 run victories. The 90s Yanx constantly exceeded their "earned" win totals which I attribute to Torre's bullpens of extremes. Those Yanx would pull out Rivera, Stanton (yes, he was good for a while) and Jeff Nelson if games were close. But the back half of their pen often consisted of a band of no-names (this was where Steinbrenner would put his foot down in saving money) who Torre would only go to if they were behind. If they succeeded that day the bats had enough time to battle back, but if they didn't they a five-run deficit became a ten-run loss. Or maybe that's all bullshit and I have no idea what I'm talking about. This year's Orioles are playing above their Pythag target although by a much smaller margin than last season -- they're plus three games at the moment with a better RS/RA margin (+28) than what they had after 162 games in 2012.

Edgy MD Jul 02 2013 02:45 PM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

I think part of what I respected about Torre is/was that if he had 18-20 guys he trusted, he didn't let the other guys appear in a heavy leverage situation. Part of what I was trying to say about Terry earlier is that he's taken the longview to the point where he's so trying to work out the salvation of every last man on the roster, that he was willing to lose this weekend in a game started brilliantly by Matt Harvey by putting it in Josh Edgin's hands.

Swan Swan H Jul 03 2013 09:31 AM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

As Buster Olney pointed out today, the Pirates have thrown the most innings from the bullpen in the NL, and second most in the majors. It hasn't hurt so far, as the pen ERA is 2.84, but this could be the sort of thing that catches up with them. It may well be an area they look to shore up at the trading deadline, whether it be a starter who eats more innings or fresh arms for the pen.

Edgy MD Jul 03 2013 09:38 AM Re: Are We Allowed to Talk About the Pirates?

It's certainly been the sort of thing that catches up with the Mets. The collapses of 2007 and 2008 were highly characterized by perfectly decent bullpens collapsing like a house of cards the last weeks.