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IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

G-Fafif Jul 29 2013 09:41 PM

Mets didn't sink Monday. Will wonders ever cease? Hopefully not Tuesday night, as Zack Wheeler goes up against Nick Eovaldi -- or, more accurately, each pitcher goes up against the other pitcher's teammates.

Fman99 Jul 30 2013 06:08 AM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

G-Fafif wrote: Mets didn't sink Monday. Will wonders ever cease? Hopefully not Tuesday night, as Zack Wheeler goes up against Nick Eovaldi -- or, more accurately, each pitcher goes up against the other pitcher's teammates. They will also face each other, thanks to the fact that the bastardization of baseball (the designated hitter) is not in place in the Senior Circuit.

Ceetar Jul 30 2013 08:17 AM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

image from [url]http://www.metstradamusblog.com/2013-articles/july/it-has-happened.html

Zvon Jul 30 2013 01:46 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Fman99 wrote: G-Fafif wrote: Mets didn't sink Monday. Will wonders ever cease? Hopefully not Tuesday night, as Zack Wheeler goes up against Nick Eovaldi -- or, more accurately, each pitcher goes up against the other pitcher's teammates. They will also face each other, thanks to the fact that the bastardization of baseball (the designated hitter) is not in place in the Senior Circuit. Anyone see that thing on ESPN last night about how close the NL was to going with a DH, back in the late 70s early 80s. That was pretty amazin'. According to that if the Phillies GM wasn't away fishing the NL would have had the DH since 1982.

Ceetar Jul 30 2013 01:48 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

I don't watch ESPN, but there was this on For The Win by Ted Berg [url]http://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/07/the-national-league-nearly-adopted-the-dh-rule-in-1928/

Ceetar Jul 30 2013 01:49 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Young (7) Murphy (4) Wright (5) Byrd (9) Davis (3) Buck (2) Lagares (8) Quintanilla (6) Wheeler (1)

Zvon Jul 30 2013 01:53 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Ceetar wrote: I don't watch ESPN, but there was this on For The Win by Ted Berg [url]http://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/07/the-national-league-nearly-adopted-the-dh-rule-in-1928/ wow. Talk about gettin trumped, lol. 1928! That had to be considered crazy talk in 1928.

G-Fafif Jul 30 2013 01:57 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Fish gotta swim... Yelich LF Hechavarria SS Stanton RF Morrison 1B Lucas 3B Solano 2B Marisnick CF Mathis C Eovaldi P

Zvon Jul 30 2013 02:05 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

My goal is to someday never have to type a word again and communicate solely thru images. Kinda like Harpo but w/pictures.

Frayed Knot Jul 30 2013 02:11 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Ceetar wrote: Quick, somebody photoshop Swannie's face onto Parnell's!

Ashie62 Jul 30 2013 04:27 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Perfect park and opponent for Zach to shine...

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 05:52 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Seven out of eight first-pitch strikes. Twenty-five pitches to get through eight batters. Twenty-one of the first 25 pitches for strikes. (And then he strikes out number nine on three pitches. Twenty-four out of 28!)

Frayed Knot Jul 30 2013 05:52 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Ashie62 wrote: Perfect park and opponent for Zach to shine... Accurate so far. Nothing not to like about 3 perfect innings in under 30 pitches.

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 05:55 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

OK, let's get some runs. If this is to be Marlon Byrd's end, I would have it be SUCH an end.

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 05:56 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Wow, bringing the infield in for a scoreless tie in the fourth. That's a manager without confidence.

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 06:04 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Triple for Señor Doble! You know who would have caught that shot by Lagares? Lagares.

Zvon Jul 30 2013 06:05 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

A two out triBOOM by Lagares drives in Wright and Buck! 2-0 Mets

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 06:38 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Miró Shmiró. Tell me this ballpark's colors are anything but unappealing.

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 06:44 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

HEY! That's Reid Cornelius coachng the bullpen!

Zvon Jul 30 2013 06:45 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Edgy MD wrote: Miró Shmiró. Tell me this ballpark's colors are anything but unappealing. Way too much green. Intrinsically you would think it would work. But it don't. The green of the field should be a contrast to all other colors in a stadium.

Fman99 Jul 30 2013 06:46 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Yeah, it's a bit much. This Wheeler kid is throwing some darts tonight.

Gwreck Jul 30 2013 06:48 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Interesting game, here

Benjamin Grimm Jul 30 2013 06:48 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Six hitless innings!

Fman99 Jul 30 2013 06:49 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

1-2-3 in the 6th. Just 66 pitches so far.

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 06:49 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Word to the posts above. This pitching performance is a pleasure. I hope everybody not posting tonight is watching. (Unless garish colors cause seizures or something.)

metirish Jul 30 2013 06:50 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

I love Wheelers easy motion, effortless and throwing 96.

Fman99 Jul 30 2013 06:52 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Fman99 wrote: 1-2-3 in the 6th. Just 66 pitches so far. Gary proves, once again, that he's lurking in the CPF as he cites the low pitch count just now. HI GARY!

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 06:56 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Rookie about to make his MLB debut... ... against David Wright.

Zvon Jul 30 2013 06:58 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Fman99 wrote: Yeah, it's a bit much. This Wheeler kid is throwing some darts tonight. With more command than I expected.

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 06:59 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Muchth

Gonzaga manager gives ball to a Gonzaga pitcher, sez Joshie. And he gets his man. Feast of Ignatius Loyola tomorrow.

batmagadanleadoff Jul 30 2013 07:03 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Fman99 wrote: Fman99 wrote: 1-2-3 in the 6th. Just 66 pitches so far. Gary proves, once again, that he's lurking in the CPF as he cites the low pitch count just now. HI GARY! Plus that Willie Montanez riff from last inning (See Sucking in the Seventies thread).

batmagadanleadoff Jul 30 2013 07:04 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Zvon Jul 30 2013 07:05 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Calm down Zack.

Zvon Jul 30 2013 07:07 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

That should calm him down. Now get out of the inning. Two on, one out.

Fman99 Jul 30 2013 07:08 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Not good. 2-1 good guys.

Zvon Jul 30 2013 07:13 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Nice DP.

Fman99 Jul 30 2013 07:13 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Well that could have been worse, Wheels gets the ground ball he needs to escape at 2-2.

Nymr83 Jul 30 2013 07:15 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Well, this game was going great until my fiance came in to bug me. Way to ruin the no-hitter!!

Fman99 Jul 30 2013 07:16 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Yeah Marlon!

Frayed Knot Jul 30 2013 07:16 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

I think there's some contract somewhere that requires a poor offensive output anytime a young NYM pitcher is in the midst of a gem.

Zvon Jul 30 2013 07:16 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

WOW! Lead off triBOOM for Byrd! I thought that guy caught it. Just a fly ball Ike.

Fman99 Jul 30 2013 07:19 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Ike hanging tough with two strikes.

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 07:22 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Not sure I resist the urge to pinch-hit for Buck here. And he grounds out.

Frayed Knot Jul 30 2013 07:23 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Fman99 wrote: Ike hanging tough with two strikes. Yeah, except that the result was ultimately unsuccessful and at no point was there hint that anything was in danger of being a hit.

Zvon Jul 30 2013 07:24 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Fman99 wrote: Ike hanging tough with two strikes. He swung and fouled off a lot of pitches that were balls there. It was a good at bat just for makin the guy throw so many pitches but that last swing...... Maybe he should only look for curves and sliders. So are we really gonna strand Byrd at third? 2 out now.

Ceetar Jul 30 2013 07:26 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Frayed Knot wrote: Fman99 wrote: Ike hanging tough with two strikes. Yeah, except that the result was ultimately unsuccessful and at no point was there hint that anything was in danger of being a hit. Well the half dozen liners. The pitcher misses his spot by an inch and those are screeching doubles down the line.

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 07:29 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Double steal.

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 07:29 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Nope.

Fman99 Jul 30 2013 07:29 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Well that's disappointing.

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 07:30 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Wheeler come out for the bottom of the inning?

Nymr83 Jul 30 2013 07:30 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Stranding the leadoff triple?? Argjhhhhhhhhhh

Zvon Jul 30 2013 07:30 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Ceetar wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: Fman99 wrote: Ike hanging tough with two strikes. Yeah, except that the result was ultimately unsuccessful and at no point was there hint that anything was in danger of being a hit. Well the half dozen liners. The pitcher misses his spot by an inch and those are screeching doubles down the line. The thing Ron was saying, about working the at bat until the pitcher makes a mistake, doesn't apply to Ike because he makes the mistake of swinging at shit. Jeezes H Chripes. Forget about trading Byrd. Trade EVERYONE else. 2-2 mid 8th.

dinosaur jesus Jul 30 2013 07:31 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Third base ump is calling all the check swings strikes. Q didn't swing.

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 07:31 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

I'm gonna come out against trading Wheeler. And Harvey. And pretty much everybody else.

Zvon Jul 30 2013 07:32 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Ha! Fish pitcher is a klutz.

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 07:37 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Might've done a double switch if the team had defensible defense from their backup shortstop.

Fman99 Jul 30 2013 07:39 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Solid inning there by Hawk.

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 07:39 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

And toppa the order.

Frayed Knot Jul 30 2013 07:42 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 30 2013 07:43 PM

Ceetar wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: Fman99 wrote: Ike hanging tough with two strikes. Yeah, except that the result was ultimately unsuccessful and at no point was there hint that anything was in danger of being a hit. Well the half dozen liners. "Liners" is a very kind term for what Ike was hitting, and even if you want to classify them as such there was nothing that wasn't at least 20-30 degrees foul. The pitcher misses his spot by an inch and those are screeching doubles down the line. No, Ike merely hits a different foul ball somewhere

Zvon Jul 30 2013 07:42 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Hawkins with a nice and important inning. The rest of this lineup chews on FFman's short hairs. The ones around his anus. A little hittin and this game is ours. OURS!

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 07:43 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Turner as the pinch-hit leadoff guy. Underwhelming. But leadoff guys reaching is over-rated.

Ceetar Jul 30 2013 07:45 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Frayed Knot wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: Fman99 wrote: Ike hanging tough with two strikes. Yeah, except that the result was ultimately unsuccessful and at no point was there hint that anything was in danger of being a hit. Well the half dozen liners. "Liners" is a very kind term for what Ike was hitting, and even if you want to classify them as such there was nothing that wasn't at least 20-30 degrees foul. The pitcher misses his spot by an inch and those are screeching doubles down the line. No, Ike merely hits a different foul ball somewhere Believe that if you like, but it's not true. An inch further on the plate and Ike crushes it. Maybe it ends up right at Stanton, but he was on the pitches.

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 07:45 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

And now we go keeping our closer in reserve.

Zvon Jul 30 2013 07:48 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 30 2013 07:49 PM

Can ol'man Atchy be trusted with the 9th. We shall see. A lead off walk is a Bozo no-no ol'man.

Frayed Knot Jul 30 2013 07:49 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Y'all see that list of late-inning ball-busters, walk-offs, and extra-inning disasters that I posted in the KTE ... I get the distinct feeling that that list is about to be augmented by one.

Fman99 Jul 30 2013 07:50 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Solid throw by Ike to get the lead runner.

Fman99 Jul 30 2013 07:52 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Woo hoo, extra baseball!

Zvon Jul 30 2013 07:52 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Frayed Knot Jul 30 2013 07:53 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Ceetar wrote: Believe that if you like, but it's not true. An inch further on the plate and Ike crushes it. Maybe it ends up right at Stanton, but he was on the pitches. Well then you're watching a different game than I am. I'm reading words here like "hard smash" and "screaming liner" yet I'm seeing two-hoppers to infielders and foul balls landing in Row T. And it's hard to make judgments about pitches being altered by "an inch" when most of what he swung at were out of the zone by "a foot". and when we're talking about a guy who hasn't crushed anything (except maybe some ice) in months.

Zvon Jul 30 2013 07:56 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Zvon wrote: Ha! Fish pitcher is a klutz.

Zvon Jul 30 2013 07:59 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

^The fact that he stumbled is one thing. That he did it while giving a big gung-ho-rah-rah pump is fuckin priceless.

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 08:00 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Even the grass stain on Stanton's chest looks fugly.

Zvon Jul 30 2013 08:01 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Redeem thyself Sir Ike of Ineptitude .

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 08:03 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

I'm not so sure I resist the temptation to pinch-hit for Buck here either.

Zvon Jul 30 2013 08:03 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

I'll take the walk, tyvm. Bases all busy with absolutely no out.

Fman99 Jul 30 2013 08:04 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Yeah Bucky!

Zvon Jul 30 2013 08:04 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Buck lines a first pitch 2 RBI single right up the middle. Damn nice. 4-2 Mets

Nymr83 Jul 30 2013 08:05 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

SUCK IT Marlins!!

Zvon Jul 30 2013 08:07 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Lags bunts to put two in scoring position for Q. They will walk Q-man and Satin will be battin. I like.

Nymr83 Jul 30 2013 08:07 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Come on Satin!!

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 08:07 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Satin over Brown here? I guess going for contact over the clout. But contact could mean a DP. Go for the fly-ball guy.

Zvon Jul 30 2013 08:08 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Wow. Fk u Lucas

smg58 Jul 30 2013 08:09 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Hmm. I don't sacrifice with a guy who's 4 for 4 getting on tonight, and I don't intentionally walk Q to face two better hitters with the bases full.

Zvon Jul 30 2013 08:12 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

smg58 wrote: Hmm. I don't sacrifice with a guy who's 4 for 4 getting on tonight, and I don't intentionally walk Q to face two better hitters with the bases full. I agree with the sac. Make em sweat for the first out in that situation.

Fman99 Jul 30 2013 08:15 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Muffie with the glove!

Zvon Jul 30 2013 08:16 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Very nice play Muffy.

Frayed Knot Jul 30 2013 08:19 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

1) Nice infieldin' 2) Do NOT let this inning get to Stanton

Zvon Jul 30 2013 08:21 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Good game guys!

Fman99 Jul 30 2013 08:22 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Frayed Knot Jul 30 2013 08:23 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

An extra-inning game where we WIN against the Marlins ... what a concept!!

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jul 30 2013 08:51 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

smg58 wrote: Hmm. I don't sacrifice with a guy who's 4 for 4 getting on tonight, and I don't intentionally walk Q to face two better hitters with the bases full. All the more confounding, these, since Gary and Ron praised both moves so effusively, I thought the half-inning was sponsored by the American Smallball Council. But hey, I'll take a stupid win anyday.

Edgy MD Jul 30 2013 09:04 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

I don't know. I mean, I'm against bunting, but let's not fall into the notion that who Lagares had been earlier in the evening against other pitchers (actually 3-3, with a walk, not 4-4) define who he was at that moment. As for walking the Q, well, there was a whole lot to be said for setting up the double play. Extra-innings are full of such stuff. That marathon against St. Louis that should have been Jerry Manuel's last game, it was going on all night. Guy reaches base, guy gets bunted over, next guy walked to set up double play.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jul 30 2013 09:09 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Leave aside the hitter that he was tonight 'til then... he's still a surer bet than Quintanilla, right? (And certainly a better bet to score runs than Quintanilla-with-one-out.) And as to the second one... the odds that Quintanilla's doing something that isn't getting on-base safely are about 70%. That he's something of a weak spray hitter makes the odds that he won't do something useful with the ball slightly south of that, probably, right? Maybe, say, 60%? What are the odds that an average-to-slow hitter like Satin/Brown hits into a double-play with the corners in and the bases loaded? Are they higher than, say, 60%? (HINT: They're somewhere in the 20-30% range.)

Nymr83 Jul 30 2013 09:52 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Edgy MD wrote: I don't know. I mean, I'm against bunting, but let's not fall into the notion that who Lagares had been earlier in the evening against other pitchers (actually 3-3, with a walk, not 4-4) define who he was at that moment. As for walking the Q, well, there was a whole lot to be said for setting up the double play. Extra-innings are full of such stuff. That marathon against St. Louis that should have been Jerry Manuel's last game, it was going on all night. Guy reaches base, guy gets bunted over, next guy walked to set up double play. I look at Lagares as actually trying to bunt not just for a sac but for a hit there with the side effect of moving the runners up if he fails. i hate bunting, but this wasnt the worst bunt, particularly in a situation (already up 2 runs in the last inning) where increasing your probability of scoring 1 more run at the cost of your probability of adding more than that might not be the worst trade to make.

Ceetar Jul 31 2013 05:26 AM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Nymr83 wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I don't know. I mean, I'm against bunting, but let's not fall into the notion that who Lagares had been earlier in the evening against other pitchers (actually 3-3, with a walk, not 4-4) define who he was at that moment. As for walking the Q, well, there was a whole lot to be said for setting up the double play. Extra-innings are full of such stuff. That marathon against St. Louis that should have been Jerry Manuel's last game, it was going on all night. Guy reaches base, guy gets bunted over, next guy walked to set up double play. I look at Lagares as actually trying to bunt not just for a sac but for a hit there with the side effect of moving the runners up if he fails. i hate bunting, but this wasnt the worst bunt, particularly in a situation (already up 2 runs in the last inning) where increasing your probability of scoring 1 more run at the cost of your probability of adding more than that might not be the worst trade to make. I believe the run expectancy matrix suggests that bunting with first and second and no outs actually leads to more runs than not. Well, successfully bunting does anyway. But that factors in average hitters, not Quintanilla and we don't know.

batmagadanleadoff Jul 31 2013 09:15 AM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Ceetar wrote: I believe the run expectancy matrix suggests that bunting with first and second and no outs actually leads to more runs than not. Impossible. I don't even need to look at any matrix to know this. How can an out increase the number likelihood of total runs scored in the inning? Unless the batter bunts with the bases loaded and the fielder takes so much time to get the only out at first base that in the meantime, all three runners score.

Frayed Knot Jul 31 2013 09:22 AM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

I think what a run analysis may show is that a bunt in that situation increases the likelihood that you'll score [u:n64jz06l]at least one run[/u:n64jz06l] even if the [u:n64jz06l]average number of runs[/u:n64jz06l] decreases overall -- and the argument can be made that an extra run or two there vastly increases the odds of winning the game so it's the better move than playing for the larger inning.

Nymr83 Jul 31 2013 09:27 AM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Ceetar wrote: Nymr83 wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I don't know. I mean, I'm against bunting, but let's not fall into the notion that who Lagares had been earlier in the evening against other pitchers (actually 3-3, with a walk, not 4-4) define who he was at that moment. As for walking the Q, well, there was a whole lot to be said for setting up the double play. Extra-innings are full of such stuff. That marathon against St. Louis that should have been Jerry Manuel's last game, it was going on all night. Guy reaches base, guy gets bunted over, next guy walked to set up double play. I look at Lagares as actually trying to bunt not just for a sac but for a hit there with the side effect of moving the runners up if he fails. i hate bunting, but this wasnt the worst bunt, particularly in a situation (already up 2 runs in the last inning) where increasing your probability of scoring 1 more run at the cost of your probability of adding more than that might not be the worst trade to make. I believe the run expectancy matrix suggests that bunting with first and second and no outs actually leads to more runs than not. Well, successfully bunting does anyway. But that factors in average hitters, not Quintanilla and we don't know. 1st and 2nd nobody out is 1.556 runs (with the chance of scoring at least 1 at 64.3%) 2nd and 3rd 1 out is 1.447 runs (with the chance of scoring at least 1 at 69.8%) so like i said, you are increasing your chances at 1 run while decreasing your chances at more. Also, these numbers assume the bunt was successful. if the bunt is unsuccessful and they get the lead runner (or you pop it up and they get you without runners advancing) your expectancy is down to 0.963 and 42.9%... other things can go wrong too (bunt into doubleplay, bunt foul and lower your chances of getting a hit when forced to swing with extra strike) Frayed Knot wrote: I think what a run analysis may show is that a bunt in that situation increases the likelihood that you'll score at least one run even if the average number of runs decreases overall -- and the argument can be made that an extra run or two there vastly increases the odds of winning the game so it's the better move than playing for the larger inning. Yes, thats what the tables show and I agree (as per my original comment that this wasnt the dumbest of bunts) that the strategy may be an ok one here. but i think we can easily refute the silly notion that bunting "leads to more run than not" here is an article with the charts (i referenced the most recent of the 3 data sets) [url]http://beyondthescorecard.blogspot.com/2013/04/tom-tangos-run-expectancies.html

batmagadanleadoff Jul 31 2013 09:39 AM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Frayed Knot wrote: I think what a run analysis may show is that a bunt in that situation increases the likelihood that you'll score at least one run even if the average number of runs decreases overall -- and the argument can be made that an extra run or two there vastly increases the odds of winning the game so it's the better move than playing for the larger inning. There's two different matrixes for run expectancies. One matrix returns values for likelihood of overall number of runs scored in the inning for each base/out situation. According to this matrix, a sacrifice -- an out --always decreases the likelihood of overall or total runs scored in the inning. The second type of run expectancy matrix provides the chances of each specific base runner scoring. According to this matrix, a runner on second base with nobody out, who is then sacrificed to third base is likelier to score. This is the only instance when a specific base runner would be likelier to score after advancing one base on an out. So if you're playing for one run, (e.g. as the home team in a tie game after the eighth inning) it makes some sense to try and sac bunt the runner on second if nobody is out. But using up an out to move that runner on second with nobody out decreases the overall or total number of runs the team could be expected to score in the inning.

dinosaur jesus Jul 31 2013 09:47 AM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

For what it's worth, Baseball Reference give the bunt as having no effect on the likelihood of winning (which was 96% at that point). It's a low-risk, low-yield strategy, but that actually makes some sense in that situation. Normally you want to try to score as many runs as possible, but when you're already up by two in the ninth, there's no real need to. There's not much difference, as far as winning, between one more run and two or three more.

Frayed Knot Jul 31 2013 09:53 AM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

But using up an out to move that runner on second with nobody out decreases the overall or total number of runs the team could be expected to score in the inning. Which is something I wasn't arguing.

batmagadanleadoff Jul 31 2013 09:54 AM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Frayed Knot wrote: But using up an out to move that runner on second with nobody out decreases the overall or total number of runs the team could be expected to score in the inning. Which is something I wasn't arguing. That's right.

Ceetar Jul 31 2013 10:37 AM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Ceetar wrote: I believe the run expectancy matrix suggests that bunting with first and second and no outs actually leads to more runs than not. Impossible. I don't even need to look at any matrix to know this. How can an out increase the number likelihood of total runs scored in the inning? Unless the batter bunts with the bases loaded and the fielder takes so much time to get the only out at first base that in the meantime, all three runners score. You're right, but it's not that far off base. It's not a big different in expectancy and if you look at the second chart you'll see that in that case bunting makes sense. (Or, perhaps, that teams of that age bunted so much in that spot that it's skewing the numbers?) Now, 2013 is closer to the 93-'10 chart, but the last time I looked run scoring overall is down as compared to those years, which shrinks the difference even more. Add in Quintanilla/PH being below the average player and it's probably close to a wash. The chance you score 1 run DOES go up by about 5%, which seems a little negligible in my mind. It's not a bad call really, not one I'd make, but not a bad one.

Edgy MD Jul 31 2013 10:43 AM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

I don't think that's negigible, but it has to be weighted against the likelihood of success, and bunting success rates are not something I've ever seen good data on. Intuitively, I'd say almost nobody bunts well enough to make the 5% bump worth it. But what really matters isn't the expectancy for one run versus the expectancy for two or more, but rather the win expectancy. If you don't know that, it's hard to determine whether an increased chance at one is worth a decreased chance of two or more. I'd say maybe, but again, the success likelihood of the bunter is crucial to the decision.

Edgy MD Jul 31 2013 02:23 PM Re: IGT 7/30/2013: NYM @ MIA -- Abyss You Much

Yesterday was also Duaner Sanchez day. Always nervewracking to be in Florida for Duaner Day.