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Todd Helton to retire

Gwreck Sep 15 2013 12:57 PM

ESPN story The Rockies have an opening at first base...hmm. Sounds like the perfect place to [crossout]dump[/crossout] trade Ike Davis to.

MFS62 Sep 15 2013 01:35 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

Gwreck wrote: ESPN story The Rockies have an opening at first base...hmm. Sounds like the perfect place to [crossout]dump[/crossout] trade Ike Davis to. Plus, other stories this season have said they might be willing to unload shortstop Troy Tulowitski (sp?). Sounds like a deal could be possible. And he joins Hall of Famer Stan Musial as the only players in major league history with at least 2,500 hits, 550 doubles, 350 home runs and a .310 or higher career batting average. When you're the ONLY person, along with Stan the Man, to accomplish a career thingie like that, then you certainly deserve HOF consideration Later

Gwreck Sep 15 2013 02:01 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

I hate those cherry-picked statistical arguments. Find enough parameters and anyone can be the "only person since..." to do "x, y and z." Career WAR: Helton 61.1 Musial 128.1 Adjusted OPS: Musial 159 (15th all-time) Helton 133 (135th all-time) Good player, sure. Hall of fame? Not a chance. --- Also: Tulowitzki has 8 seasons and $145 million left on his contract. I somehow doubt the Mets are going to assume that payroll obligation.

MFS62 Sep 15 2013 02:40 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

I didn't say "stone cold lock". I said "consideration". Later

Frayed Knot Sep 15 2013 02:51 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

Helton will get a lot of consideration. The biggest question, I think, will be how to figure in the Coors factor coupled with the whole 90s/200s/steroid era factor.

Gwreck Sep 15 2013 03:12 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

Helton's career numbers are somewhat similar to those of Larry Walker, who's received 20-22% in the HOF elections the past three years. Neither one is getting in anytime soon. I wouldn't consider voting for Helton and Walker is a marginal candidate in my mind.

Edgy MD Sep 15 2013 05:30 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

Wait --- Davis for Tulowitzki? Where do I sign up for that craziness?

Frayed Knot Sep 15 2013 05:42 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

A .415 OBA (26th career) is going to be tough for some to ignore, as is his 20th best career OPS (954) The Coors factor comes into effect when you look at the 'Adjusted OPS+' [cue some writers eyes glazing over while they start screaming about nerds with pocket protecters ruining the sport] where he suddenly plummets to 132nd overall.

Edgy MD Sep 15 2013 06:27 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

Yes, but traditional analysts certainly acknowledge the Coors factor. It's just that they view it binarily --- as in, 'He played at Coors, therefore I can throw out his numbers entirely."

Frayed Knot Sep 15 2013 06:48 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

Yes, there are those who will acknowledge that there are mitigating factors but then hate when someone tries to do something radical like quantify the size of it, something that even leads to the point of pushing back against the notion that the factor even matters. Person A) 'Willie Mays was much more than just numbers, you had to see all the things he did with his glove, with his arm, and when running the bases beyond merely steals' Person B) 'Absolutely! In fact Mike Trout is like that too and it's why I think he should be MVP over Cabrera even though Miggy has an edge in the Triple Crown stats' Person A) 'What are you, one of those Bill James-ian keyboard communists?'

Ashie62 Sep 15 2013 10:03 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

Its' not Todd Helton's fault that he played at Coors or in the steroid era but it won't help for sure.. I Believe he will fall short and eventually get in...

metirish Sep 16 2013 08:28 AM Re: Todd Helton to retire

So, after 17 years #17 will retire..will there be any players left that wear that number in homage to .......Mark grace?

Mets – Willets Point Sep 16 2013 09:21 AM Re: Todd Helton to retire

Hooray for a single-team player.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 16 2013 11:17 AM Re: Todd Helton to retire

I have a quick back of the envelope eyeball formula for determining whether a hitter who spent most of his career as a Colorado Rockie deserves to be in the HOF. If he's a corner infielder or outfielder, then his numbers, before adjusting for anything, oughtta look like Lou Gehrig's numbers.

dinosaur jesus Sep 16 2013 12:14 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

Three players, career numbers on the road. All three began their careers within the last 25 years. Games: 1103 PA: 4600 Runs: 527 Hits: 1124 2B: 271 3B: 9 HR: 142 RBI: 547 BB: 635 BA: .287 OBP: .386 SP: .470 OPS: .856 Games: 1062 PA: 4262 Runs: 572 Hits: 1041 2B: 218 3B: 34 HR: 155 RBI: 600 BB: 481 BA: .280 OBP: .360 SP: .482 OPS: .843 Games: 1105 PA: 4576 Runs: 594 Hits: 1157 2B: 250 3B: 6 HR: 121 RBI: 603 BB: 635 BA: .301 OBP: .402 SP: .464 OPS: .865 The first is Todd Helton. The second is Bobby Bonilla. The third is John Olerud.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 16 2013 12:15 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

What about if his mother looks like Lou Gehrig's mother?

smg58 Sep 16 2013 12:16 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

You can't ignore the positive influence Coors had on his stats. I think he's not quite HOF caliber. Olerud is a fair comparison.

Ashie62 Sep 16 2013 04:49 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

I'd like to see a dozen or so close but not quite guys who did it right wy get in the hall to make up for the dozens who blew their shot with PEDS..

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Sep 16 2013 06:17 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

Defensively superior and-- yeah, I'll say it-- slightly offensively superior, Olerud is a more than fair comparison. Gun-to-head, one game in their prime? Give me Oly, and let's play two.

Edgy MD Sep 16 2013 06:54 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

Beneficiary of one of the most generous calls in history.

Vic Sage Sep 17 2013 08:51 AM Re: Todd Helton to retire Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Sep 17 2013 09:41 AM

Helton has about 4000 ABs at Coors, and a similar number on the road. That's not a small sample size. And the results are pretty clear: Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ Home 1132 1075 4801 4000 867 1381 315 28 225 850 24 15 709 505 .345 .442 .607 1.048 2427 96 29 2 59 99 46 .347 119 Away 1103 1049 4600 3913 527 1124 271 9 142 547 13 14 624 657 .287 .386 .470 .856 1839 89 28 1 33 86 38 .312 80 Like some others (Walker, Dante Bichette and Vinny Castilla coming immediately to mind), Helton was a very good player made great (more than 20% better) when playing his home games in the best hitting park of his era... not just the best, but a historically disproportionate and perception-warping park. He had a 200 pt higher OPS at home, mostly based on the slugging numbers. Was it his "fault" for playing at Coors? uh, no. But neither should he be rewarded for playing there, particularly these days when we can accurately measure park effects. So would you put a .290 BA /20 HR/.850 PS 1bman in the HOF? [on edit] It's not a crazy notion, but if you want to lower the bar that much at that position, he goes in after Jeff Bagwell (obviously, not to mention the PED guys, McGwire and Palmiero), as well as Keith Hernandez, Don Mattingly, Steve Garvey, Fred McGriff, John Olerud, Cecil Cooper, and Will Clark, and maybe just before Al Oliver, Boog Powell, Dick Allen, Norm Cash and Gil Hodges. And that's just off the top of my head. And if you did the same thing with the backlog of players at other positions, as well as lower the bar for future players, the HOF becomes a museum with hundreds of plaques of very good players, and its imprimatur becomes virtually meaningless.

seawolf17 Sep 17 2013 09:31 AM Re: Todd Helton to retire

Love Todd Helton. One of my favorite non-Mets of all time. Great player. Not a HOFer.

dinosaur jesus Sep 17 2013 09:39 AM Re: Todd Helton to retire

Helton has about 4000 ABs at Coors, and a similar number on the road. That's not a small sample size. And the results are pretty clear: Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ Home 1132 1075 4801 4000 867 1381 315 28 225 850 24 15 709 505 .345 .442 .607 1.048 2427 96 29 2 59 99 46 .347 119 Away 1103 1049 4600 3913 527 1124 271 9 142 547 13 14 624 657 .287 .386 .470 .856 1839 89 28 1 33 86 38 .312 80 Like some others (Walker, Dante Bichette and Vinny Castilla coming immediately to mind), Helton was a very good player made great (more than 20% better) when playing his home games in the best hitting park of his era... not just the best, but a historically disproportionate and perception-warping park. He had a 200 pt higher OPS at home, mostly based on the slugging numbers. Was it his "fault" for playing at Coors? uh, no. But neither should he be rewarded for playing there. So would you put a .290 BA /20 HR/.850 PS 1bman in the HOF? If you want to lower the bar that much, he goes in after Jeff Bagwell (obviously) as well as Keith Hernandez, Don Mattingly, Steve Garvey, Fred McGriff, John Olerud, Cecil Cooper, Will Clark, Al Oliver, Boog Powell, Dick Allen, Norm Cash and Gil Hodges (not to mention the PED guys, McGwire and Palmiero). And that's just off the top of my head. I agree with what you're saying, but I think Helton's numbers in a normal park would probably be a bit better than .290 BA /20 HR/.850. You're extrapolating from what he did on the road, but it's normal to do a bit better at home. (Olerud was an exception--if he'd played in better hitting parks, his awesomeness might not be a secret.) Larry Walker was a much better player than Helton--if he'd played somewhere else, he'd be a genuine Hall of Fame candidate. Not quite there, I think, but close. Unlike Castilla and Dante Bichette, he's someone whose reputation might actually have been hurt by playing in Colorado. His MVP was completely legit--his road numbers were terrific that year.

Vic Sage Sep 17 2013 09:56 AM Re: Todd Helton to retire

I love Walker, and his MVP in 97 was totally legit. But overall, he too had a 200 pt differential in Colorado between home and away, and between Coors and Olympique as home fields. So i think the notion that Coors totally pumped his numbers is a fair one. Also, he rarely played a full season, often on the DL. And I think the perception of him as fragile hurts his HOF candidacy as much as the Coors effect. He was an excellent player and better than Helton (as you note) -- he could run better, throw better, get on base more and, when playing in Coors, had more power. He is now a solid HOF candidate (i wouldn't complain if he got in), but if he had played in a neutral park, his power numbers would've been significantly suppressed and he may not have ended up even a borderline candidate. Without the Coors effect I don't see Helton as a borderline candidate. With it, only barely.

Valadius Sep 17 2013 03:52 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

My problem with arbitrary "disqualification" based on the Coors effect is that it essentially says "You played in Colorado? Too bad!" I don't think that's fair to anybody. It's like disqualifying old-time players for smaller gloves or bigger outfields. It's like discriminating against pitchers who pitch in pitcher's parks and hitters in stadiums with short porches or other oddities. It's part of the game. It does nobody any good to ignore it.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 17 2013 05:08 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

Nobody's automatically disqualifying Helton. And it's not arbitrary either. It's adjusting for the Coors Effect. It would be just as unfair not to adjust -- to take Helton's numbers at face value. What if Helton hit 1,200 lifetime HR's because he played in a Little League stadium, where the outfield fence was 300 feet from home plate -- 1,050 HR's at home and 150 on the road? How would you interpret those stats?

Frayed Knot Sep 17 2013 06:53 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

Valadius wrote: It's like disqualifying old-time players for smaller gloves or bigger outfields. No, because something like smaller gloves were universal way back when so no one player had an advantage over others. It's like discriminating against pitchers who pitch in pitcher's parks and hitters in stadiums with short porches or other oddities. It's part of the game. It does nobody any good to ignore it. Nobody is ignoring those factors, merely taking them into consideration.

Frayed Knot Sep 17 2013 06:55 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

From John Sickels' career retrospective on Helton: "Here’s the irony of Coors Field: It undoubtedly helped players put up ENORMOUS numbers. And at exactly the same time, it undoubtedly made those numbers look like mirages. . .you get the sense that if (Helton) had put up significantly WORSE numbers but played his whole career somewhere else, his career might be valued higher." With the proper statistical adjustments, we can work around the Coors issue. Using the "normalizing" tool at Baseball Reference, Helton would have hit something on the order of .292/.387/.496 with approximately 323 home runs* in a neutral park/league environment, still impressive in historical terms. Also keep in mind that WAR adjusts for park effect. His career WAR of 55.7 puts him in the neighborhood with first baseman like John Olerud (57.7), Fred McGriff (57.2), Bill Terry (57.0), Norm Cash (54.6), and Will Clark (52.0). As for the minor league comps, Mark Grace checks in at 45.7, Don Mattingly at 40.7. wRC+ is also park-adjusted, and his 132 mark in that column puts him in territory with Clark (136), McGriff (134), Rod Carew (132), Keith Hernandez (131), and Olerud (130) among first basemen with 8000 or more plate appearances. * as compared to his actual .317/.415/.539 w/367 HRs Full article -- http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/9/1 ... ll-of-fame

Vic Sage Sep 17 2013 09:17 PM Re: Todd Helton to retire

i think those are excellent comps, and the same as the ones i used (that's how i know they're excellent). Virtually none of those guys are in the HOF and Carew got in primarily on the basis of 3000 hits while playing half his career at 2b. I think arguments can be made for Helton, as well as Hernandez, Clark, Olerud, McGriff and Cash (among others) but its definitely a different tier of player from Gehrig, Hank Greenberg, Jimmy Foxx, Stan Musial, Eddie Murray, Harmon Killebrew and Willie McCovey. You either want that tier in or you don't. so far the voters haven't.