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Jeff Wilpon's mother wears combat boots.
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Alderson can dream, but the Cardinals are in another league
By Howard Megdal
2:37 pm Oct. 14, 20131
ST. LOUIS—It's a time-honored tradition in baseball for the teams at home in October to watch the playoff teams and dream of emulating them some not-so-distant fall.
Mets general manager Sandy Alderson reportedly harbors such an aspiration: "Sandy Alderson dreams of an October sometime in the next few years when the Mets are in a similar position, trying to win a championship on the strength of their young pitching."
A Daily News column on Alderson's dream goes on to allude to the Mets' "surplus of pitching prospects ..."
The Mets do in fact have lots of decent young pitching compared to, say, what Alderson inherited when he took over as the team's G.M. in October 2010.
There's Matt Harvey, who we'll include on this list, despite the fact that he will be recovering from Tommy John surgery next year, as a pitching prospect who will arrive in 2015.
There's also Zack Wheeler, who held his own in a half-season with the Mets in 2013. There's Noah Syndergaard, who dominated for Double-A Binghamton in 2013. There's Rafael Montero, who pitched quite well at Double-A and Triple-A. And there are a handful of second-tier and third-tier guys, like Jacob deGrom and Cory Mazzoni.
So all the Mets need to do is let those guys come to the big leagues, form a Cardinals-like pitching staff in concert with established starters Jon Niese and Dillon Gee, and they'll be all set.
That is, if absolutely everything goes right with health and performance of these guys; if Jenrry Mejia, who's never stayed healthy, stays healthy, then sure, the Mets would have enough pitching.
Unfortunately, that never happens. And it didn't, by the way, even happen for the Cardinals. The Cardinals are where they are because they built up a massive pitching surplus.
Jaime Garcia was their Jon Niese entering the season, mid-20s, signed to a long-term, team-friendly deal. And his season ended in May, thanks to a shoulder injury requiring surgery. The same thing happened to John Gast, who'd posted a 1.16 E.R.A. in seven Triple-A starts, but was lost for the season, having shoulder surgery. These weren't two random guys, but two highly-touted pitching prospects.
Among those who remained, Shelby Miller is five months younger than Zack Wheeler, the current best combination of potential, big league success and health the Mets have. He put up a 3.73 x.F.I.P. this year in 173 1/3 major league innings, compared to Wheeler's 4.21 in 100.
Miller can't crach the Cardinals' postseason rotation. Wheeler is expected to form part of "a Big Three of Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard that could finally make them serious contenders again", per Harper. The Cardinals have Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn in their playoff rotation, along with that Adam Wainwright guy.
"These guys are pretty talented, immensely talented, actually," Wainwright told me at his locker following Game 2 Sunday. "They're great guys, they work hard, they're very talented. What more do you need? From our standpoint, we're kind of in awe what all these guys are doing."
Miller, a truly gifted young pitcher, has so far thrown one inning, total. Why?
Because the Cardinals have even more young pitching out of their bullpen.
There's electric Carlos Martinez, who routinely throws in the upper 90s with his sinker, his four seamer, and then counters with a ridiculous changeup nearly 20 miles per hour slower. Oh, and he's throwing his slider now, which is "a game-changer for him," per Cardinals pitching coach Derek Lilliquist.
There's Trevor Rosenthal, one day older than Wheeler, who put up very similar minor league numbers to Wheeler, then pitched out of middle relief for much of the season in St. Louis, striking out just under 13 batters per nine innings. He can't crack the rotation, either.
Neither can Kevin Siegrist, a lefty starter in the minor leagues, a lefty specialist in the big leagues with a 0.45 E.R.A. this season.
Neither can Seth Maness, an ultra-control artist who walk 0.7 people per nine innings in the minor leagues, and posted a 2.32 E.R.A. in relief for the Cardinals. Neither can Tyler Lyons, a Rafael Montero type who can't even get onto the Cardinals' roster.
By contrast, the Mets's dream bullpen, as described in that News column, is this: "If closer Bobby Parnell returns to form from neck surgery, the Mets could build a similar bullpen, filling it with power arms such as Jeurys Familia, Vic Black, and perhaps a Montero or Mazzoni, plus hard-throwing lefty Jack Leathersich."
I hope so! But that's a pretty big "if" when it comes to Parnell, who is recovering from a neck injury severe enough that his manager said it caused him to lose 30 pounds. Vic Black is a power arm who can't generally find the plate, which is why the Pirates were willing to throw him into the Marlon Byrd/John Buck deal. Leathersich was actually demoted earlier this year, from Triple-A to Double-A.
This is not to say some of these guys couldn't eventually help the bullpen. But any kind of comparison to how the Cardinals did it, staffing their pen with massively successful minor league starters, not fringe minor league bullpen guys, falls apart quickly.
At least the idea is merely that the Mets have enough young pitching, rather than holding onto the idea, propogated back when Matt Harvey (who is super-awesome, but also, just one guy) was healthy, that the Mets have some kind of super-abundance of young pitching they can trade for, you know, hitting. It didn't look terribly realistic then, and it sure doesn't now.
And if you're wondering how the Cardinals got enough hitting to go along with that pitching: Carlos Beltran, the hero of Game 1, signed via free agency. So did Matt Holliday. They developed Yadier Molina, but then they kept him with a massive long-term deal. Even their pitching isn't purely made up of young, low-cost talent. They traded for Wainwright as a minor leaguer, then signed him long-term.
The Cardinals have a lot more young pitching than the Mets do. They've also spent a lot more money than the Mets have. And even if the Mets manage to bridge that enormous talent and budget gap, they'll still run up against the Cardinals, right in their own league, not going anywhere.
"We're still playing this year," Wainwright said. "But it's pretty promising, going forward the next few years, with what our staff is capable of doing."
Other than that, sure, the Mets are the new Cardinals. Maybe they can even trade Zack Wheeler from that pitching surplus for the hitting they desperately need, which is one scenario that's being kicked around.
I mean, you've got to dream, right? |
http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/s ... her-league
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