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2013 Rankings Project

Frayed Knot Nov 03 2013 07:30 PM

GO! Top 30 to be chosen from these following stellar candidates: Hitters (sorted by ABs) MURPHY - WRIGHT - BYRD - LAGARES - YOUNG BUCK - DUDA - DAVIS - QUINTANILLA - TEJADA SATIN - TURNER - BROWN - BAXTER - RECKER VALDESPIN - d’ARNAUD - NIEUWENHUIS - FLORES - ANKIEL den DEKKER - COWGILL - LUTZ - TOVAR Pitchers as ranked by IPs GEE - HARVEY - NIESE - HEFNER - WHEELER TORRES - MARCUM - HAWKINS - RICE - PARNELL ATCHISON - AARDSMA - MATSUZAKA - GERMEN - LYON BURKE - EDGIN - MEJIA - HARANG - CARSON BLACK - FELICIANO - FAMILIA - McHUGH - FRANCISCO BYRDAK - HENN - LAFFEY

seawolf17 Nov 04 2013 08:14 AM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

Gah. This team sucked. My "gut" list: Harvey Wright Murphy Byrd Lagares Niese Gee Buck Duda Young Wheeler Satin Parnell Hawkins Quintanilla Rice Hefner Davis Tejada Brown Turner Recker Baxter Torres Aardsma Matsuzaka Valdespin Atchison Mejia Flores

Frayed Knot Nov 04 2013 04:49 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

Maybe it was intentional, but your gut produced a Duda-less list.

seawolf17 Nov 04 2013 05:41 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

Whoops. Fixed. Apparently my gut didn't think he was all that impressive.

Frayed Knot Nov 05 2013 07:01 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

I haven't edited this all down yet or figured out how the pitchers and non-pitchers are going to mesh. I suppose I could wait until I figure it all out and just publish the final list but I'd rather inflict my thinking process on you all. HARVEY -- Unquestionably the best year among pitchers even with the abrupt end factored in GEE - Only starter to go wire to wire and get more than 30 starts. Tough start but strong finish NIESE -- More baserunners than we’re used to from him, plus almost two months blown out of his season HEFNER -- Was the best starter on the team for a short stretch before the premature end PARNELL -- Solid if not spectacular, and then ended early WHEELER -- Talented rookie who alternated pitching like he had talent and like he was a rookie HAWKINS -- Stepped into the closer’s role and didn’t miss a beat TORRES -- Occasionally quite good, plus points for versatility RICE -- Didn’t look like a career minor leaguer most of the time ATCHINSON -- GERMEN -- AARDSMA These three are close enough to put in any order: Atchison goes first with most innings and lowest WHiP, Germen 2nd for lowest ERA and strongest finish MEJIA -- Encouraging five starts MARCUM -- Wasn’t as bad as his record, but then it would be tough to be BLACK -- Looked promising in his short trial EDGIN -- BURKE -- FELICIANO -- CARSON WRIGHT -- Muffy played the entire year and had 1/3 more PAs but 70 pts of OBA and 100 of Slg is a BIG gap so I'm putting a little Sugar on top of the hitters heap MURPHY -- Only position player to play the entire season and, despite seeming to rack up singles most of the time, still managed 52 XBHs BYRD -- Team leader in HRs and more XBHs (51) than Wright despite fewer ABs. May have finished 1st among hitters if he had finished the season here YOUNG -- Not the OBA you want from a leadoff hitter, but played hard, ran well, played some good LF, and was the 4th non-out in the lineup for much of the year LAGARES -- Hitting is still a question but oh that defense was sublime!! DUDA -- Was the better 1B of the year even if that’s like being the tallest midget in the circus BUCK -- Great April then plummeted DAVIS -- Only an improved finish got him this high QUINTANILLA -- Out of place as a starter, but better than the alternative TEJADA -- Total regression to where he wasn’t even as good as his waiver-wire backup SATIN -- Some decent hitting, but contributes almost nowhere else TURNER -- I seem to be less down on him than many of you folks, but still only average in a limited role BROWN -- Gotta like the power off the bench RECKER -- Was good for the occasional HR and, of course, prettying up the team photo d’ARNAUD -- Offense was essentially Recker’s minus the power and we're not voting on future promise here VALDESPIN -- More headaches for his own manager than for the other team's NIEUWENHUIS -- Has yet to adjust to ML pitchers’ adjustments to him after the first time around and, fighting it out for the last couple of places: FLORES -- den DEKKER -- ANKIEL, probably in that order

John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 05 2013 09:15 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

30. Harvey 29. Murphy 28. Wright 27. Byrd 26. Gee 25. Niese * 24. Lagares 23. Wheeler 22. Young 21. Parnell 20. Hawkins 19. Buck 18. Rice 17. Duda 16. Hefner 15. Davis 14. Quintanilla * 13. Satin 12. Germen 11. Atchison 10. Turner 9. Brown 8. Aardsma 7. Recker 6. Torres 5. Marcum 4. Edgin 3. Baxter 2. Lyon 1. Valdespin 0. Tejada -1. Burke -2. D'Arnaud -3. Nieuwenhuis -4. Mejia -5. Flores -6. Matsuzaka -7. Harang * -8. Black -9. den Dekker -10. Lutz -11. Feliciano -12. Francisco -13. Familia -14. Ankeil -15. Tovar -16. Henn -17. Byrdak -18. Ceteno -19. Laffey -20. McHugh -21. Carson

metsmarathon Nov 06 2013 07:14 AM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

i don't quite understand how you could have murphy ahead of wright. yeah, he played hte full season, but in 2/3 the plate appearances, wright had 6 fWAR to murphy's 3 fWAR. bbref has it at 5.9 WAR to 1.9 WAR, an even larger margin, due to their harsher assessment of murphy's defense. wright was a stealth MVP candidate before he got hurt, and his prorated production put him at the top of the NL (second, perhaps, only to hanley ramirez). as it is, fangraphs has him as the 4th highest WAR total in the NL, and bbref has him at 8th best. murphy is nowhere near hte top of these lists (82nd and 75th, respectively). wright versus harvey, and murphy versus byrd are tougher calls, but wright versus murphy should be a no brainer.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Nov 06 2013 01:05 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

Harvey Wright Byrd Murphy Niese Lagares Gee Young Wheeler Satin Torres Buck Parnell Hawkins Rice Duda Turner Recker Quintanilla Hefner Davis Brown Tejada Flores Baxter Aardsma Matsuzaka Valdespin Atchison Mejia

Vic Sage Nov 06 2013 03:26 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project Edited 6 time(s), most recently on Jan 10 2014 10:48 PM

30 - Harvey 29 - Wright ---- 28 - Byrd 27 - Gee 26 - Murphy 25 - Young 24 - Niese 23 - Lagares 22 - Wheeler 21 - Hefner 20 - Parnell 19 - Hawkins ---- 18 - Torres 17 - Satin 16 - Duda 15 - Rice 14 - Turner 13 - Brown 12 - Recker 11 - Davis 10 - Buck ---- 09 - German 08 - Atchison 07 - Aardsma 06 - Mejia 05 - Black 04 - Matsuzaka 03 - Quintanilla 02 - d'Arnaud 01 - Tejada Players whose negative impact was amplified by too many PAs or IP: pitchers: Lyon, Marcum, Burke players: Baxter, Valdespin The rest were either bad or mediocre, and with too few appearances to be considered significant.

Frayed Knot Nov 06 2013 04:59 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

30 - HARVEY 29 - WRIGHT 28 - MURPHY 27 - BYRD 26 - GEE 25 - NIESE 24 - YOUNG 23 - HEFNER 22 - LAGARES 21 - PARNELL 20 - WHEELER 19 - HAWKINS 18 - DUDA 17 - TORRES 16 - BUCK 15 - RICE 14 - DAVIS 13 - QUINTANILLA 12 - ATCHISON 11 - SATIN 10 - TEJADA 9 - TURNER 8 - BROWN 7 - GERMEN 6 - AARDSMA 5 - RECKER 4 - MEJIA 3 - MATSUZAKA 2 - BLACK 1 - d'ARNAUD

Ceetar Nov 12 2013 09:58 AM Re: 2013 Rankings Project Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 12 2013 11:02 AM

WRIGHT HARVEY BYRD GEE NIESE PARNELL MURPHY WHEELER LAGARES DUDA HEFNER SATIN DAVIS TURNER GERMEN RICE HAWKINS BROWN ATCHISON TORRES MEJIA BUCK YOUNG RECKER d’ARNAUD EDGIN NIEUWENHUIS MARCUM BLACK AARDSMA

Frayed Knot Nov 12 2013 10:08 AM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

GEE whiz, the guy who pitched the most innings on the team can even crack the top 30?!?!? You're also Lagares-less, Hefner-less, and Shortstop-less. Some of those may be intentional, but I don't suspect all of them are.

Ceetar Nov 12 2013 10:18 AM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

Frayed Knot wrote: GEE whiz, the guy who pitched the most innings on the team can even crack the top 30?!?!? You're also Lagares-less, Hefner-less, and Shortstop-less. Some of those may be intentional, but I don't suspect all of them are. oh crap. I did most of this the other day and thought I was done. I definitely remember putting Hefner in (and am SS-less for a reason) edit: clearly I didn't save. okay, Gee, Hefner, Lagares..placement incoming.

Frayed Knot Nov 12 2013 10:29 AM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

This thread will be kept open for another few weeks at least so you can take your time and get things right ... not that there's any true "right" answer but you should be in a position where you can justify your choices. Like, for instance, I would think it would take a lot of mental gymnastics to explain Baxter ten slots ahead of Young - but maybe you do.

Ceetar Nov 12 2013 10:59 AM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

Frayed Knot wrote: This thread will be kept open for another few weeks at least so you can take your time and get things right ... not that there's any true "right" answer but you should be in a position where you can justify your choices. Like, for instance, I would think it would take a lot of mental gymnastics to explain Baxter ten slots ahead of Young - but maybe you do. It's because Young was bad and Baxter had 2 walk-offs. I guess that's not entirely fair, I think I was remembering some of Baxter's 2012 since he got so little time. Screw it, off goes Mike. It feels like a tossup after like 12. points for memorable moments or good hair or something.

Frayed Knot Dec 08 2013 02:54 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

Bumpity bump-bump, bumpity bump-bump ... look at rankings go We've got five solid ballots so far here from JCL, FK, Seawolf, Vic Sage & LWFS Also Ceetar who has vowed to re-check his choices and get back, and I believe at least G-FaFiF was talking about submitting one but so far hasn't gotten a round tuit. Additional votes, ballot updates, or just plain comments and insults are still being taken from anyone else. Going to keep this open for the remainder of December before 'putting it into the books'.

Frayed Knot Jan 06 2014 06:57 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

OK this time I actually mean it -- I'm going to close this up by the end of the week. So if anyone has anything to add, update, change, or argue, do so soon or forever hold your peace ... or your piece ... or your pleats.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 06 2014 08:21 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

Do you still count the Schaefer results as one of the voters?

Nymr83 Jan 06 2014 08:22 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Jan 07 2014 06:08 PM

30 Harvey 29 Wright 28 Gee 27 Byrd 26 Wheeler 25 Niese 24 Hawkins 23 Lagares 22 Parnell 21 Murphy 20 Duda 19 Hefner 18 Young 17 Buck 16 Quantanilla 15 Davis 14 Torres 13 Satin 12 Recker 11 Rice 10 Mejia 9 Turner 8 Niewenhuis 7 Atchison 6 Aardsma 5 Brown 4 Baxter 3 Tejada 2 Marcum 1 d'Arnaud Edited to move Mejia down from 20 points to 9 points after my error was pointed out. Edited to drop Tejada, he really sucked

Frayed Knot Jan 06 2014 08:32 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Do you still count the Schaefer results as one of the voters? Yes

Nymr83 Jan 07 2014 08:13 AM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

This was one of those years where you just want to stop after 10 guys and say nobody else contributed at all.

Frayed Knot Jan 07 2014 09:39 AM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

Which accounts for the fact that your 11th place guy is one who pitched all of 27 innings.

Nymr83 Jan 07 2014 12:20 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

There is a strong possibility that i misread a number or the wrong stat line, ill look later

Frayed Knot Jan 07 2014 01:20 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

I'm not saying that vote was wrong necessarily, only that when the guy who got the 18th most time on the mound finishes 11th overall it does pretty much emphasize your statement about a drop-off after the first ten. Personally I think that the amount of playing time has to be a significant consideration. For better or worse, those who did get the ABs and the IPs are the guys who made up the bulk of the 2013 Mets and devaluing them (by over-valuing part-timers) because we wish someone else was in there instead I believe at least partially mis-applies the goal of this little project. Also, just as a general idea, I find projecting small samples as a sign of what a given player would have done if granted more playing time is a bit too faulty and speculative. With Mejia in particular, there's only so much impact one can have with just 5 mid-season starts including the last one when he was pulled after the 3rd inning never to return for the season. Obviously there's always a trade-off between time and productively and there are no rules about how much to weight either.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 07 2014 01:40 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

Frayed Knot wrote: Personally I think that the amount of playing time has to be a significant consideration. For better or worse, those who did get the ABs and the IPs are the guys who made up the bulk of the 2013 Mets and devaluing them (by over-valuing part-timers) because we wish someone else was in there instead I believe at least partially mis-applies the goal of this little project. Also, just as a general idea, I find projecting small samples as a sign of what a given player would have done if granted more playing time is a bit too faulty and speculative. With Mejia in particular, there's only so much impact one can have with just 5 mid-season starts including the last one when he was pulled after the 3rd inning never to return for the season. Is there an internet symbol for rolls eyes 10 times with projectile vomit that travels farther than an R.A. Dickey fastball?

Ceetar Jan 07 2014 01:53 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

Personally I think that the amount of playing time has to be a significant consideration. For better or worse, those who did get the ABs and the IPs are the guys who made up the bulk of the 2013 Mets and devaluing them (by over-valuing part-timers) because we wish someone else was in there instead I believe at least partially mis-applies the goal of this little project. Also, just as a general idea, I find projecting small samples as a sign of what a given player would have done if granted more playing time is a bit too faulty and speculative. With Mejia in particular, there's only so much impact one can have with just 5 mid-season starts including the last one when he was pulled after the 3rd inning never to return for the season. Is there an internet symbol for rolls eyes 10 times with projectile vomit that travels farther than an R.A. Dickey fastball? 8-)8-)8-)8-)8-)8-)8-)8-)8-)8-):O===

Nymr83 Jan 07 2014 06:07 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

Frayed Knot wrote: I'm not saying that vote was wrong necessarily, only that when the guy who got the 18th most time on the mound finishes 11th overall it does pretty much emphasize your statement about a drop-off after the first ten. Personally I think that the amount of playing time has to be a significant consideration. For better or worse, those who did get the ABs and the IPs are the guys who made up the bulk of the 2013 Mets and devaluing them (by over-valuing part-timers) because we wish someone else was in there instead I believe at least partially mis-applies the goal of this little project. Also, just as a general idea, I find projecting small samples as a sign of what a given player would have done if granted more playing time is a bit too faulty and speculative. With Mejia in particular, there's only so much impact one can have with just 5 mid-season starts including the last one when he was pulled after the 3rd inning never to return for the season. Obviously there's always a trade-off between time and productively and there are no rules about how much to weight either. I've always been a quality of quantity guy when ranking players, but after review i've edited my rankings to move Mejia down from 20 points to 9 points as the innings were just too low. As a rule, I think that once a player gets below the theoretical replacement level (across the board, offensively and defensively) he could have 700 Plate Appearences and I'd still put him very low as he contributed to losing not winning. This year's examples of that principle include Marcum and probably Tejada... I've just dropped Tejada some more as well after looking at things again, he made Rey Ordonez look like Nomar Garciaparra with the bat this year.

Nymr83 Jan 07 2014 06:12 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

I'd like to take issue with JCL's (non) ranking of Mejia, what did Brandon Lyon do to finish higher than him? 34.1 innings of 4.98ERA/1.63WHIP can't be more valuable than 27.1 innings of 2.30/1.17 and they came in starts when you have to face batters multiple times.

G-Fafif Jan 10 2014 09:43 AM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

Strong conviction for a first five (Harvey, Wright, Byrd, Murphy, Gee), very little thereafter. Thus will abstain courteously.

Frayed Knot Jan 11 2014 05:32 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

RANK PLAYER 30 MATT HARVEY 29 DAVID WRIGHT 28 MARLON BYRD 27 DANIEL MURPHY 26 DILLON GEE 25 JONATHON NIESE 24 JUAN LAGARES 23 ERIC YOUNG JR. 22 ZACK WHEELER 21 BOBBY PARNELL 20 LUCAS DUDA 19 JEREMY HEFNER 18 LATROY HAWKINS 17 JOHN BUCK 16 JOSH SATIN 15 SCOTT RICE 14 IKE DAVIS 13 CARLOS TORRES 12 OMAR QUINTANILLA 11 JUSTIN TURNER 10 ANDREW BROWN 9 ANTHONY RECKER 8 SCOTT ATCHISON 7 GONZALEZ GERMEN 6 DAVID AARDSMA 5 RUBEN TEJADA 4 JENNRY MEJIA 3 MIKE BAXTER 2 DAISUKE MATSUZAKA 1 SHAWN MARCUM

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 11 2014 07:26 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

Nymr83 wrote: I'd like to take issue with JCL's (non) ranking of Mejia, what did Brandon Lyon do to finish higher than him? 34.1 innings of 4.98ERA/1.63WHIP can't be more valuable than 27.1 innings of 2.30/1.17 and they came in starts when you have to face batters multiple times. I don't really know as I've long since discarded any notes but most likely Mejia fell to a lower "tier" based on appearances -- not innings -- between pitchers at the lower end of the scale. I'm glad to see my harsh garding hasn't cost him points (or given any to Lyon) in the aggregate, even though my grading might have.

Vic Sage Jan 11 2014 08:24 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

I can see including Baxter over d'Arnaud, (though I didn't), but I'd take Black's few good innings over Marcum's many more (almost exclusively) bad ones.

Nymr83 Jan 11 2014 11:40 PM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

Value in starts vs relief appearances? I'll thino abou5 mak8ng that change

Nymr83 Jan 12 2014 09:59 AM Re: 2013 Rankings Project

This is tough for me, and more so the general philosophy than the specific case of Marcum, I went and dug into his game log, 2 great starts, 2 good ones, and 1 awesome 8 inning relief appearence vs 8 not good starts and 1 bad relief appearence. Is that better than a guy who barwly played? Does starting 12 times have value? Ill keep my rankngs for now, but i acknowledge your criticism is pretty valid and i am 50/50 here on which i think is right.