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2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Benjamin Grimm Mar 10 2014 01:56 PM

It was moderately popular last year, so we'll try it again this year. IPP stands for Individual Player Predictions. These will be threads where we share our expectations of how a player will perform in the current year. Feel free to make your predictions as specific or as vague as you like. (You can find a listing of the 2013 IPPs here.) I'm concerned about Jon Niese's continuing arm troubles, but I'm going to choose to be optimistic that any injuries he has in 2014 will be of the short-term nagging variety. 30 starts. 3.45 ERA, 13 wins, Schaefer Mets Pitcher of the Year.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 10 2014 02:53 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

I'm also concerned about Niese and his shoulder. I kinda see him as a smaller scale disaster of the Davis and Tejada variety -- at least it's injury and not suckiness at the root of it. Doesn't get a whole year in. 5-6, 3.90 in 19 starts. Whiff rate slows then plummets.

Edgy MD Mar 10 2014 03:36 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

I tell you though, as much of a humanitarian as Terry is, if there's anything he and Warthen have shown no patience with, it's folks (particularly pitchers) saying they are healthy when they are not. If he's showing impingement and/or a decline in velocity, he'll be out of there faster than you can say "John Maine." There are just too many enticing options and too little cultural patience going around right now.

Ceetar Mar 10 2014 03:44 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

3.8 ERA over 180 IP. (12-9) 142 Ks. hits .201/.260/.270 and runs into that rare pitcher home-run.

smg58 Mar 10 2014 05:14 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Gets hurt early, opens the door for Montero. Comes back (displacing Dice-K) and finishes with a 3.70 ERA over 120 IP.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 10 2014 07:33 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Mar 12 2014 04:10 AM

Shoulder issues are NO way to set expectations high in your ostensible prime. Great-- like, GREAT-- early, then a slightly-less-steep Johan-in-June-2012 act. I worry about the future beyond that. 19 GS, 119 IP, 8-6 record, 4.39 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 89 K, 6.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9

d'Kong76 Mar 11 2014 12:56 AM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

6 wins, misses a lot of time on DL

MFS62 Mar 11 2014 03:35 AM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

8-7, 4.12, 135 IP, misses at least 45 days to the DL. Later

Centerfield Mar 11 2014 01:33 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

I think he'll be really good if he stays healthy. Which is only slightly more of a prediction than "I think he'll be really good if he plays really good." I'll go for it. 12-9. ERA under 4.00 Only miss a start or two here and there with "dead arm" or "fatigue". No DL trips.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 11 2014 05:42 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Niese going now vs. Cardinals. gave up 2 hits and a walk in the first inning, and a[crossout:10o82jl6]walk, HR and two singles (so far)[/crossout:10o82jl6] all that and a two-run double in the 2nd. [crossout:10o82jl6]2[/crossout:10o82jl6]4-1 Cards (Satin HR for us vs Wainwright)

Vic Sage Mar 11 2014 05:55 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

not feeling it -- 5-9, 4.5 era, DL.

Ashie62 Mar 11 2014 10:30 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Starts on DL...

Zvon Mar 12 2014 03:41 AM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

He'll struggle to start and kinda even out, with a few bright spots. 9-11, 3.63.

Benjamin Grimm Mar 16 2014 06:26 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Uh-oh… Michael J. Fensom/The Star-Ledger wrote: Jonathon Niese, a left-hander and candidate to be the Mets’ Opening Day starter, left his second spring training start Sunday with what the Mets called discomfort in his left elbow.

Frayed Knot Mar 16 2014 09:15 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Rubin: Niese will fly to New York on Sunday night and undergo an MRI with team doctor David Altchek at the Hospital for Special Surgery in Manhattan on Monday. Jonathon Niese doesn't believe the elbow discomfort he suffered Sunday is significant [he] indicated he initially injured it 10 days ago in an intrasquad game. He said the discomfort is in the back of the elbow, not in the vicinity of the forearm ligaments that can lead to Tommy John surgery. He had been taking anti-inflammatory medication for 10 days, and added that the elbow did not pose a problem during his 2014 Grapefruit League debut on Tuesday. It began posing a problem in the second inning Sunday when he hyperextended it on a pitch. "It's the back of the elbow, which is good," Niese said. "I'm almost 100 percent sure it's nothing serious like Tommy John or anything. It's just a little discomfort. I wanted to go back out there. It's something that I could definitely pitch through. I don't know about you, but it's always comforting to me when the patient pronounces it not serious, especially so when he does it before the examination takes place.

Mets Guy in Michigan Mar 17 2014 12:13 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Maybe we shouldn't trade our young pitching for a shortstop after all.

Ceetar Mar 17 2014 01:16 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Rubin: Niese will fly to New York on Sunday night and undergo an MRI with team doctor David Altchek at the Hospital for Special Surgery in Manhattan on Monday. Jonathon Niese doesn't believe the elbow discomfort he suffered Sunday is significant [he] indicated he initially injured it 10 days ago in an intrasquad game. He said the discomfort is in the back of the elbow, not in the vicinity of the forearm ligaments that can lead to Tommy John surgery. He had been taking anti-inflammatory medication for 10 days, and added that the elbow did not pose a problem during his 2014 Grapefruit League debut on Tuesday. It began posing a problem in the second inning Sunday when he hyperextended it on a pitch. "It's the back of the elbow, which is good," Niese said. "I'm almost 100 percent sure it's nothing serious like Tommy John or anything. It's just a little discomfort. I wanted to go back out there. It's something that I could definitely pitch through. I don't know about you, but it's always comforting to me when the patient pronounces it not serious, especially so when he does it before the examination takes place. I don't understand why he _stopped_ taking the anti-inflammatories? I mean, he's got that partially torn rotator cuff..

Edgy MD Mar 17 2014 02:33 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Ashie62 wrote: Starts on DL... Adam Rubin wrote: DL expected for Niese to open season Well, that's two opening day starters down.

Ceetar Mar 17 2014 02:43 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Edgy MD wrote: Ashie62 wrote: Starts on DL... Adam Rubin wrote: DL expected for Niese to open season Well, that's two opening day starters down. Not changing my projections. But if this is true (depends strongly on if he makes his next start though arm strength will be an issue given he only threw 2) we can now debate who should be the guy. Wheeler is the logical, but if you're innings capping him, you don't get any extra starts out of him by doing that.

Edgy MD Mar 17 2014 02:48 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

I think Colon is certainly equally logical, if not moreso.

Benjamin Grimm Mar 17 2014 02:53 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

I'd give it to Gee. Let him have a pat on the back for the nice way he rebounded from his bad start last year.

Frayed Knot Mar 17 2014 03:37 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Ceetar wrote: I don't understand why he _stopped_ taking the anti-inflammatories? I mean, he's got that partially torn rotator cuff.. That stuff is for temporary relief, not continual usage. You can't just simply take it forever.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 17 2014 03:45 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

On the bright side, this could really jelp some other rotation jopefuls' chances.

Ceetar Mar 17 2014 03:48 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Frayed Knot wrote: Ceetar wrote: I don't understand why he _stopped_ taking the anti-inflammatories? I mean, he's got that partially torn rotator cuff.. That stuff is for temporary relief, not continual usage. You can't just simply take it forever. so is Toradol. These are ballplayers we're talking about. I thought he was on some sort of regiment though, but I can see where he'd not take them in the offseason. Perhaps periods like this are just what's going to be the norm for him. Perhaps the elbow pain is a side effect of altering mechanics slightly to adjust for other pain. Guess we'll see. sounds like it might be minor, but..

Frayed Knot Mar 17 2014 04:29 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Well I'm going to refrain from playing Web-MD about conditions and treatments I know little about; you're free to continue all you want. What I do know, however, is that taking cortisone for a year or for months on end is neither good for you nor is it some kind of magical injury preventer, so acting as if this past weekend's results were preventable by some easily followed routine is just silly.

Edgy MD Mar 17 2014 04:32 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

And that's why you don't get to train the Oakland Raiders.

Mets Guy in Michigan Mar 17 2014 04:32 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Lots of tweets saying he's OK, no damage, resume throwing in 48 hours.

Ceetar Mar 17 2014 04:51 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Frayed Knot wrote: Well I'm going to refrain from playing Web-MD about conditions and treatments I know little about; you're free to continue all you want. What I do know, however, is that taking cortisone for a year or for months on end is neither good for you nor is it some kind of magical injury preventer, so acting as if this past weekend's results were preventable by some easily followed routine is just silly. I wasn't acting like anything, just curious since the reports I see are boring "this is what just happened" reports without the historical context. Was wondering if anyone remember what was going on last year without digging through a bunch of google results.

Zvon Mar 17 2014 08:02 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

metsguyinmichigan wrote: Lots of tweets saying he's OK, no damage, resume throwing in 48 hours. Whew.

Benjamin Grimm Mar 17 2014 08:23 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

My sigh of relief is a small one. Niese's shoulder was cleared just two weeks ago. I feel like this good news today means that he'll be okay until his next MRI in early April.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 17 2014 08:24 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Yeah. Outlook Not Good.

Zvon Mar 17 2014 10:49 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

I think one by one the Mets are becoming head cases. Tejada: Ew, a ground ball, I gotta catch it, I gotta catch it, I gotta catch it, UHMPH!: E-6 Ike: I know what I'll do. I'll walk out there in a boot ! Niese: My arm hurts, my arm hurts!

Edgy MD Mar 18 2014 02:52 AM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

I'm pretty sure neither Ike nor Niese are experiencing psychosomatic injuries.

Ashie62 Mar 18 2014 03:27 AM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Cleared to throw..no structural damage...cortisone shot given... Cortisone shots? ughhh [url]http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/10622278/jonathon-niese-new-york-mets-cleared-throw

Centerfield Mar 18 2014 01:56 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Benjamin Grimm wrote: My sigh of relief is a small one. Niese's shoulder was cleared just two weeks ago. I feel like this good news today means that he'll be okay until his next MRI in early April. Sounds like an Onion article. "Niese Cleared to Throw Until Next MRI" or "Niese Expected to Make his Next MRI".

batmagadanleadoff Dec 06 2014 06:48 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Here's the Baseball Prospectus entry from its 2014 annual, released just before last season began: After signing a four year, $24.2 million extension before the season, Niese started opening day and on some nights looked like a bargain frontline starter. Although his ERA doesn't initially stand up to scrutiny - the strikeouts went down, the walks went up and Niese missed eight weeks with a shoulder strain - it's encouraging that he was much better after returning from the DL. His velocity ticked up a tad, which made his changeup that much more effective against right-handers: Batters put the change in play over 20 percent of the time before the injury, and just 7 percent after. So the next time someone tells you the Mets can't properly rehab an injury, you can point to Niese - and probably no one else. But still!

Edgy MD Dec 06 2014 07:05 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Sheesh. These comments are wacky.

batmagadanleadoff Dec 06 2014 07:29 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

Sheesh. These comments are wacky. You should read the team comment section (in addition to the players comments section, from which I've been posting). In the Mets team comment, Howard Megdal is (as they say in the legal profession) cited with approval. Could you've thunk that? excerpt: It wasn't so long ago that the Mets had a tendency to spend lots of money, sometimes unwisely (see, for example, $153,550,596 in 2009 per Cot's Baseball Contracts - second only to the Yankees' payroll - in exchange for 70 wins). This could be frustrating. But for the past few offseasons, they've had virtually no money at all to spend. That's frustrating in its own way. But this offseason? Going into the winter [of 2013-14], it was hard to know for sure how much money the Mets actually had to spend, because these days, it's not entirely up to them. It depends in part on JPMorgan Chase, to whom they have a loan of around $250 million coming due this Summer [2014]. And that's just the most immediate debt. Overall, as the reporting of Howard Megdal at Capital New York has made clear, the Wilpons, through their various holdings, owe more than a billion dollars. More than $600 million of that, borrowed against television network SNY, comes due in 2015, which means the team and its fans will very possibly have to go through all of this again next offseason. Can the Mets refinance? Can they come up with the money? How much will their creditors allow them to give to capable and pricey players, in the interests of the team's long-term health, before their debt is paid? That last question had been partially answered this Winter, and the answer appears to be: Some, but not enough.

Ceetar Dec 06 2014 11:53 PM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

oh yes, that's certainly...clear.

Ashie62 Dec 07 2014 02:12 AM Re: 2014 IPP: Jon Niese

This is tiring for sure.