Master Index of Archived Threads
Key Met of 2014
Edgy MD Mar 11 2014 07:20 AM |
Which Mets player do you see as most definitively the key to the 2014 season's potential success or failure? That is, who seemingly offers the team the broadest range of possible outcomes that could deeply impact the team's win total?
|
seawolf17 Mar 11 2014 07:24 AM Re: Key Met of @014 |
I think Colon's your KMo14. If he's Bartolo 2013, then you can survive some growing pains from Wheeler/Niese/Syndergaard/Gee and you find this team in contention for something this summer. If he's a disaster, then we're also dreading being stuck with him for 2015 too.
|
Ceetar Mar 11 2014 07:25 AM Re: Key Met of @014 |
Tempted to say d'Arnaud, but I'm going with Ruben Tejada (and/or Stephen Drew?). If he can put up a .350 OBP type year again he's worth quite a bit more than the SSs of last year. It'd be a big swing and right now I see SS as the biggest potential to be an absolute black hole in the lineup, killing rallies left and right.
|
Edgy MD Mar 11 2014 07:28 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
I like Wheeler. It's highly unlikely that he can give the team what Harvey did last year, but if he can give 80-85%, it can take the heat off of so many other players.
|
Centerfield Mar 11 2014 07:30 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
I think it's Ike Davis. He can put up an .850 OPS and hit 30 HR's or he can be released by May.
|
Edgy MD Mar 11 2014 07:54 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
My second choice.
|
batmagadanleadoff Mar 11 2014 07:57 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Tom Seaver could come out of retirement and win the Cy Young Award pitching for the Mets or he could stay in California, overseeing his grapes.
|
Benjamin Grimm Mar 11 2014 08:04 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
I'm gonna say Chris Young. I think the Mets will have three productive hitters in Wright, Granderson, and Murphy. Having a fourth solid bat will, if not make their offense strong, at least make it less weak. Davis could also be that guy, but I'm not counting on him for anything at all.
|
John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 11 2014 08:05 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Doodoo. I think he's gonna be the first baseman when the bell rings and you're gonna need your first baseman to hit or else.
|
themetfairy Mar 11 2014 08:08 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Wheeler. The pitching staff desperately needs an anchor, and he's the best candidate.
|
batmagadanleadoff Mar 11 2014 08:12 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
I don't even know if I understand this question. Who, for example, would you say was the key 1973 Met -- so I get an idea of what I should be predicting?
|
Edgy MD Mar 11 2014 08:21 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Well that makes two entries by you in the "Who can hijack the fastest?" contest.
|
batmagadanleadoff Mar 11 2014 08:27 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
It's a trick question, because the Mets'll be out of it by the Fourth of July. Otherwise, they're gonna need a lot contributing. Why don't you just ask us who we think will be the Mets best player? The best player is usually also the most valuable player, and the key player, too. I mean, it'd be a nice surprise if whoever the hell gets most of the starts at first base can hit 25+ homers and on-base close to .375, but if Wheeler pitches like Harvey 2013, it's gonna take some convoluted and contrived thinking to convince me that the first baseman was more key than Wheeler.
|
MFS62 Mar 11 2014 08:31 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
TDA, for the fourth productive bat in the lineup.
|
Edgy MD Mar 11 2014 09:25 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
|
Or you could.
|
dinosaur jesus Mar 11 2014 10:55 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
The key Met of 1973 is actually a pretty easy call. It's either Wayne Garrett or George Stone. Everybody else did what you'd reasonably expect them to do.
|
Vic Sage Mar 11 2014 11:16 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
I think Mags is saying you already have asked that question, in essence. But i disagree with him. If by "key" we're talking about the player whose unpredictability is tied to the widest possible range of outcomes, where if he's at the top of the range he's the Mets best player, but if he's at the bottom, he drags the team down like an anchor (which is my interpretation of the question), then i guess it's not really a question of who is the Mets best player, but who we think WILL be the Mets best player in 2014 despite that not necessarily being the case as of today, and despite the fact that he might end up as one of the worst instead.
|
batmagadanleadoff Mar 11 2014 11:32 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
|
I would also disagree with myself after reading your post, but that's only because you gave a definition to the phrase "key Met". I guess that "key Met" is subject to different interpretations. I loved George Stone in 1973 but I have a hard time understanding how he was more key than, say, Tom Seaver. If the Mets couldn't have afforded to be without Stone's contributions, then doesn't that go quadruple for Seaver's season? This exercise seems more like a word game than anything else. I also like your analysis of d'Arnaud, but unfortunately, this all reminds me of the talking heads who pontificate that this team has to stop the other team's cleanup hitter in order to win the Series. And then the other team's cleanup hitter goes 10 for 15 with four HR's in the series anyway but his team still loses.
|
Vic Sage Mar 11 2014 11:53 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
i guess the point is that Seaver, like Wright, is sort of the baseline production that the team relied on in 73, but here we're being asked to speculate about what player this year will contribute most (and perhaps unexpectedly) to the production ABOVE that baseline, who will add the most wins ABOVE the contributions expected from the stars on which the season actually rests.
|
d'Kong76 Mar 11 2014 12:00 PM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Granderson will be the key Met in 2014. I'm putting all my
|
Mets Guy in Michigan Mar 11 2014 12:10 PM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
|
I agree with Kong. The pitching will be fine. But we can't continue with the abysmal run support we saw last year. Granderson is the key. he doesn't have to have a monster season. But if he is good enough take some of the pressure off Wright, then they both will thrive. If he is well below expectations, then Wright is hosed -- again -- and we lose a bunch of 3-2 and 4-2 and 2-1 games. I don't think anyone is expecting big things from Ike, Duda and Chris Young and forget about Tejada. Granderson was brought in for this purpose.
|
Lefty Specialist Mar 11 2014 12:43 PM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Agree on Granderson. We're all assuming Duda/Davis will suck, but we're all assuming the Grandy Man will be good. If he's not, we've got 4 years of crap to look forward to. See: Bay, Jason.
|
Ceetar Mar 11 2014 01:13 PM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
|
Eh, I'm assuming both Duda and Davis are unlikely to suck. And if one of them does, they won't have the rope to hang themselves/us with. Granderson as well, doesn't seem a likely candidate to completely suck. the swing just doesn't seem like it'd be that far.
|
metsmarathon Mar 11 2014 02:00 PM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
to piggyback onto vic's definition of 'keyness' i would suggest that the key met is not only the met for whom exists the widest expected variability of likely outcomes, but also for whom there exists the least-good backup plan, and therefore to whom the mets fortunes are the most tied.
|
Zvon Mar 11 2014 06:31 PM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Wheeler. We need him to grow into whatever it is he's going to be.
|
Fman99 Mar 11 2014 06:32 PM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
I also believe Grandy to be the Kay-Mo of 2014.
|
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 11 2014 09:13 PM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
I think Grandy can kneecap this season easier than he can raise it to transcendent heights.
|
John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 12 2014 08:45 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
|
yup
|
d'Kong76 Mar 12 2014 08:51 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
|
Not to reawaken the 'what is key' thing, but that to me is part of the definition of key. I'll work on my other parts of the definition.
|
Vic Sage Mar 12 2014 09:06 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
I completely understand (and share) the fear about Granderson's potential downside because of his contract, which could end up a Bay-like albatross because the Mets refuse to swallow their mistakes and move on, like big-market teams can afford to do. But i don't think that makes him a "key" to the season.
|
Ceetar Mar 12 2014 09:30 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
projecting Granderson to hit his head, twice, and never be the same player does seem like a stretch. Bay had a 105 OPS+ his first year with the Mets. it's not great, but if Curtis does that it will hardly sink the Mets.
|
Edgy MD Mar 12 2014 09:38 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
I don't think it's true that the Mets refuse to swallow their mistakes and move on. Nor do I think that's the issue. Maybe the issue is not making the mistakes in the first place and creating a situation where the redemption of that mistake is too important to the teams success. But the team bought out Jason Bay with a year left on his deal, released Óliver Pérez with a year and $12 million remaining on his contract, and cut Luis Castillo from spring camp with a year and $6 million remaining.
|
Benjamin Grimm Mar 12 2014 09:41 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
The Mets have frequently been willing to swallow the final year of their multi-year mistakes. I don't know if they've ever bailed on someone earlier than that. What happened with Bay was entirely predictable based on what happened with Castillo, Perez, and others going way back.
|
Vic Sage Mar 12 2014 10:53 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
|
All of those players were given opportunities to wreck the team's seasons well after the point that they had all established their lack of utility. They continued to be given a spot in the lineup because they had big contracts. It's not just that they weren't cut earlier, it's that the team continued to give them ABs and IPs. Yes, they were ultimately bought out of their final seasons, but long after they should have been. Every team makes bad deals (some more than others, but that's a separate issue); it's what you do afterwards that makes the difference between successful orgs and less successful ones. Lets see how the Angels deal with the Pujols and Hamilton deals. If those guys continue to fade, it seems unlikely to me the team will continue to run them out there regardless and wait til the last year of those deals to move on. And if they do, they'll have made a tragic mistake.
|
Edgy MD Mar 12 2014 11:07 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
I disagree with virtually all of that.
|
Ashie62 Mar 12 2014 11:12 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Jason Bay has done zilch since he left the Mets...Perhaps the Mets signed Bay just as he became washed up..
|
TransMonk Mar 12 2014 11:18 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
It's Granderson.
|
Frayed Knot Mar 12 2014 11:41 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Ron Locke was a key Met in 1964
|
Edgy MD Mar 12 2014 11:45 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Jimmy Key was a Key Blue Jay in 1987. Most every year, really.
|
TheOldMole Mar 13 2014 07:46 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Wilmer Flores. They said Murphy couldn't play second, and they're actually still saying it, but he's playing it well enough to help the club. If Flores can play short well enough, and can hit, he'll make a big difference in the club, even if it's only as attractive trade bait.
|
Ceetar Mar 13 2014 07:49 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
|
They, and only some, doubted Murphy could play second well, but he hadn't done so before. They DID play Flores at short, evaluated him, and decided he couldn't do it. So much so that they moved him to a position blocked by their star player. Maybe the defense becomes less important as they grasp for offense, but I still think it's a Spring Training "explore all options" thing here.
|
Edgy MD Mar 13 2014 08:01 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
They haven't moved Flores to third base, if that's what you're suggesting. He played first, second, and third last season, but mostly second.
|
Ceetar Mar 13 2014 08:07 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
|
After they moved him OFF of SS in 2011 he played mainly 3rd. 87 games versus 27 second. That was still A+/AA. It feels like once he showed he was likely to be able to hit, and they moved him to AAA, they started considering more about _where_ he could play. And all last year, while we had a disaster at SS in the majors, no one thought "hey, why not try him at SS again?" That's telling to me.
|
Edgy MD Mar 13 2014 08:10 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Sure it's telling. But he still wasn't primarily a thirdbaseman last year.
|
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 13 2014 08:12 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
In the majors last year, he was; when he wasn't pinch-hitting, he was playing la esquina caliente.
|
Edgy MD Mar 13 2014 08:18 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Yes, but arguing that he was deliberately moved in the minors to a position that the team's star player has blocked is something like the opposite of noting that he got to play the position in the majors after said star player got hurt and left the position unblocked.
|
Benjamin Grimm Mar 13 2014 08:24 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
I really hope that Wilmer gets 500 at bats for the Mets this year (without the opportunity coming from an injury to Wright or Murphy).
|
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 13 2014 08:28 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
|
Well, but he was moved there. Like Cee said, he played third mostly for the two years before that (amidst a whole lot of Met-org leaks that he didn't "have the feet" for a middle-infield position, IIRC). The 2B move last year seems more like, "Well, third's taken for a while now. Now what?" Also, that his numbers bumped up a bit in Vegas isn't THAT surprising, is it?
|
Benjamin Grimm Mar 13 2014 08:29 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
The 2012 numbers aren't bad either.
|
Ceetar Mar 13 2014 08:37 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
right, it was the continued proving that he CAN hit that forced them to start evaluating where he can play.
|
Edgy MD Mar 13 2014 08:46 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
I'm not arguing that he's destined for shortstop. I'm dismissing the notion that he was deliberately buried behind Wright. He wasn't.
|
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 13 2014 11:44 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Regardless of the wording, I don't think Cee was imputing actual motive to the organ-eye-zation; I know I wasn't. I think it's more that they were so convinced about his lack of short-itude that they moved him to the place where they thought he'd be best suited, regardless of the fact that they were locked in for the next 5-10 years there. They deliberately placed him in a place where he'd probably be logjammed, not that they deliberately logjammed him.
|
Ceetar Mar 13 2014 11:53 AM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
|
Basically. Well, If Flores can hit like he's shown and not embarrass himself at SS, that's certainly a key swing, but it's the downswing that doesn't exist. If he hit's like Quintanilla and his defense makes Jeter look rangy he's not going to play and therefore won't hurt them. Really the expectations for SS in general are so low that it's hard to see it as key to anything.
|
Edgy MD Mar 13 2014 01:17 PM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Wouldn't it be something, though?
|
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 13 2014 04:09 PM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Filling the Kevin Mitchell Memorial Chair? Oh, indeed.
|
Zvon Mar 13 2014 04:56 PM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Bobby 'O said yesterday that Parnell is the key player, and he has a point. But I can't agree that he's the #1 choice.
|
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 13 2014 05:43 PM Re: Key Met of 2014 |
Bobby O says a lot of things.
|