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Philospohical Discussion - How Long Do You Wait?

MFS62 Jan 06 2006 08:06 AM

Spinning off from my observation in the Frank Thomas thread, I just happened to look up Roberto Clemente's career stats. He had one year in the minors, where he hit under .260. In his first five years on the majors, he had a grand total of 100 Bases on Balls. TOTAL. In his fourth year he had 31, then retrogressed to 15 in his fifth year. With today's emphasis on OBP, would you have kept him on your team? The obvious answer should be YES, because he brought other things to the game (gap power, speed, defense, excitement). And those other talents were obvious to the most casual fan. So, how long should we wait these OBP-conscious days for a young player like Reyes? Do we overlook his low walk rate and just sit back, enjoy the other things he does on the field and wait for him to improve his walk rate? Or does it even matter? Later

Bret Sabermetric Jan 06 2006 09:03 AM Re: Philospohical Discussion - How Long Do You Wait?

MFS62 wrote: With today's emphasis on OBP, would you have kept him on your team? Absolutely not. He averaged 34 walks per season in 18 years, as you can see [url=http://baseball-reference.com/c/clemero01.shtml] here [/url]. He sucked at walking. His peak was a lousy 51 walks in a season. I would have kept him in the minor leagues until he went senile. Actually, he had a pretty good OBP, anyway, despite walking at Reyes-rate. How'd he do that? Because he could hit, that's how. Walks aren't what are keeping Jose from getting a decent OBP. They'd help, but walking, strike-zone judgment, a good batting eye, patience, call it what you will, is a real skill, and not so easy to develop. Jose has a better shot at batting like Clemente than walking like Eddie Yost (and a better shot at walking and batting like Ordonez than either Clemente or Yost.)

Yancy Street Gang Jan 06 2006 09:05 AM

I realize this is setting the bar pretty low, but I'm sure Jose Reyes will be a better hitter than Rey Ordonez.

KC Jan 06 2006 09:07 AM

>>>So, how long should we wait these OBP-conscious days for a young player like Reyes?<<< I've lost patience with Jose, he's obviously just another Ordoņez. Soon he'll be wanting a big fat contract and besides he's blocking kids in the organization from getting AB's.

KC Jan 06 2006 09:08 AM

Crap, I have to type faster.

Bret Sabermetric Jan 06 2006 09:10 AM

KC wrote: >>>So, how long should we wait these OBP-conscious days for a young player like Reyes?<<< I've lost patience with Jose, he's obviously just another Ordoņez. Soon he'll be wanting a big fat contract and besides he's blocking kids in the organization from getting AB's. Do you think Reyes will have a lifetime BA closer to Clemente's or Ordonez's? A BB % closer to Yost's or Ordonez's? Another sucker-bet for me?

Bret Sabermetric Jan 06 2006 09:11 AM

KC wrote: Crap, I have to type faster. I have to type faster crap.

holychicken Jan 06 2006 09:17 AM

Did you hear? We traded for delgado.

holychicken Jan 06 2006 09:17 AM

Crap. I have to type faster.

MFS62 Jan 06 2006 09:17 AM

Bret Sabermetric wrote: I have to type faster crap. Bret, the little devil in all of us wants to ask: "Why?You're doing just fine at your current speed." But I won't, because I'm a nice guy. :) Later

KC Jan 06 2006 09:21 AM

>>>Do you think Reyes will have a lifetime BA closer to Clemente's or Ordonez's?<<< Who does Clemente play for? I couldn't find him on ESPN's site.

Nymr83 Jan 06 2006 09:24 AM

Clemente had power even without walking and those were different times in terms of league averages...his OPS+ numbers the first 5 years were 76, 105, 73, 96, 91....those numbers dont earn you a big contract but they dont get you booted to the curb either...particularly before all this nasty free agency business, patience was more affordable then.

Bret Sabermetric Jan 06 2006 09:26 AM

KC wrote: >>>Do you think Reyes will have a lifetime BA closer to Clemente's or Ordonez's?<<< Who does Clemente play for? I couldn't find him on ESPN's site. Did I mess up my very first link?

KC Jan 06 2006 09:29 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jan 06 2006 09:30 AM

avi wuz here

smg58 Jan 06 2006 09:30 AM

It's never an easy question to answer. I certainly don't think Reyes is as untouchable as Wright. But he's also not killing us by a long shot the way Christian Guzman killed the Nats last year, or the way first and second base killed us last year. His glove is fine, and his offense is good for the position even if we all want a much higher OBP out of the leadoff spot. How long you wait depends on factors beyond Reyes too. If another team makes an offer for Reyes like he's a star player, or offers us a star player and asks for Reyes, I'm listening. If Anderson Hernandez sticks around the organization and makes progress this year while Reyes stands still, I'll know I have an option. I think you need to keep realistic expectations of Reyes, but that doesn't mean non-tendering him when he comes up for arbitration.

Nymr83 Jan 06 2006 10:49 AM

one thing is true- its not Reyes' fault that the Mets see him as a leadoff hitter... how bad does he look when we look at him the context of a good-glove 8-hitter? (of course he'd have to get paid like one)

TheOldMole Jan 06 2006 01:20 PM

I'm the type who has to crap faster.

MFS62 Jan 06 2006 02:01 PM

TheOldMole wrote: I'm the type who has to crap faster. We'll just let that pass. Later

Willets Point Jan 06 2006 02:28 PM

MFS62 wrote: ="TheOldMole"]I'm the type who has to crap faster. We'll just let that pass. Later That's what Mole's hoping to do.

MFS62 Jan 06 2006 02:35 PM

Ever notice how quickly this place goes into the crapper when Edgy isn't around? Later

Matt Murdock, Esq. Jan 06 2006 02:56 PM

well, do you know where all threads eventually lead? anybody? Buehler?

rpackrat Jan 06 2006 03:54 PM

Reyes has been on the radar screen so long that I think we tend to forget that he's still only 22. According to baseball-reference.com, his most similar player through age 22 is Jack Doyle, a better-than-average hitter in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. His similar list through age 22 also includes Joe Cronin and Joe Tinker. Of course, there are also a number of below average hitters on ths list, though even these guys had decent careers (Mark Koenig, Red Kress). At this point, I think Jose's downside is a league average shortstop and his upside is much higher than that.

Edgy DC Jan 06 2006 04:24 PM

What's the best offensive season the Mets have ever gotten out of a shortstop?

Yancy Street Gang Jan 06 2006 04:31 PM

Wow. I'd have to say it's Jose Reyes, 2005. My first instinct was to say Howard Johnson, but I looked and he never had a season where he played most of his games at shortstop.

Edgy DC Jan 06 2006 04:40 PM

The funny thing is that one contender is Kevin Ester 1989, in which he sets the Met record for homers by a shortstop with 10. But Howard Johnson also hit 10 homers as a shortstop the same year --- in only 31 games and 81 at-bats.

Edgy DC Jan 06 2006 04:44 PM

Jose Vizcaino 1995 is also a contender, but I'm thinking it's either Elster 89 (not to be confused with our own Elster 88) or Reyes 05.

Yancy Street Gang Jan 06 2006 04:56 PM

Elster in 1989 had 106 hits, 34 walks, and scored 52 runs in 458 at bats. Had 10 homers and 55 rbi. 4 stolen bases. .231. Vizcaino in 1995 had 146 hits, 35 walks, 66 runs, 509 at bats. Hit .287. 3 hr, 56 rbi, 8 steals. Reyes last year had 190 hits, 27 walks, scored 99 runs in 696 at bats. .273 with 7 homers, 58 rbi and 60 steals. Gotta give it to Reyes, I'd think.

Centerfield Jan 06 2006 05:05 PM

Matsui in 2004 had 125 hits, 40 walks, scored 65 runs and hit 32 doubles in 460 AB's. He also hit 7 homers, had 44 RBI and stole 14 bases. His BA was .272.

Elster88 Jan 06 2006 05:09 PM

MATSUI SUCKS!!!!!!

Edgy DC Jan 06 2006 05:34 PM

Matsui's case is strong also. Going by [(OPS+) - 60] * PA (Pretending that they spent all season at shortstop, even though some --- particularly Matsui --- got at-bats elsewhere.) Stolen base numbers are also shown. Reyes '05: 14,660 (60 SB @ 80%) Matsui '04: 14,252 (14 SB @ 82%) Elster '89: 13,716 (4 SB @ 57%) Vizcaino '95: 13,464 (8 SB @ 72%) Harrelson '70: 12,958 (23 SB @ 85%) Harrelson '67: 12,663 (12 SB @ 48%) Taveras '79: 12,240 (42 sb @ 68%) Taveras '80: 11,960 (32 sb @ 64%) Not really a contest. Other seasons have approached his, but he blows them away with his legs.

Zvon Jan 06 2006 08:32 PM

Im the slowest typer on the board. Dont deny it. I think Reyes discipline at the plate is key. Id like to see more walks, but id settle for him only swinging at pitches around the strike zone. Also, knowing [u:f72b503943]when[/u:f72b503943] to take a pitch. I want to see him thinking more like a ballplayer who knows the repercussions of his decisions. Who is aware of situational play. What Im looking for experience growth. I do expect to see some of that in some form or another over the 2006 season. Id be happy to afford him the time for this growth. To continue being a lead off hitter at this level he would have to continue to improve.

Bret Sabermetric Jan 07 2006 07:04 AM

What we're saying here, seems to me, is that we've never had an adequate offensive shortstop (outside of HoJo, and he hardly counts as a shortstop), which is fairly amazing. In 40 years, if Reyes is our best offensive shortstop ever, we've never had one who rose above 100 OPS+ for a whole season? Incredible. Is there a team anywhere that went over four decades without a superior offensive season at a position? "Offensive Juggernauts at Shortstop for the Mets" could go on my bookshelf next to "Brilliant Italian Military Strategies of the 20th Century," "The Ethics of Tom DeLay," "Great American Short Story Writers Before Poe."

Nymr83 Jan 07 2006 08:06 AM

] In 40 years, if Reyes is our best offensive shortstop ever, we've never had one who rose above 100 OPS+ for a whole season? who are "we", i thought you weren't a Met fan anymore?

Bret Sabermetric Jan 07 2006 08:49 AM

Rinse and repeat.

Rockin' Doc Jan 07 2006 06:28 PM

Personally, I found many of 0rdonez's seasons to be pretty offensive. Going strictly from memory, Reyes' numbers in 2005 were probably as good as it gets for a Mets shortstop. Matsui in 2004 was probably the standard (offensively) up to that point. Hopefully, Reyes will end all possible debate on this subject with a strong 2006 campaign.

Zvon Jan 07 2006 08:12 PM

Am I the only one who remembers back in the days before Cal Ripken, when 99.9% of all shortstops were primarily valued for their glovework? Im not surprized at all that Reyes has posted numbers that offensively top the list of Met shortstops.

Johnny Dickshot Jan 07 2006 10:03 PM

I'm astonished as I look back, and compare fan expectations to today, that the Mets ever got away with what Jerry Grote (with a spoon) brought offensively his first few years. Look it up! My god. He'd be booed out of the park faster than you can say, "Greg Goossen."

Rockin' Doc Jan 07 2006 10:06 PM

Cal Ripken certainly changed the shortstop position. However, for the majority of their history, the Mets have had shortstops that lagged behind their peers offensively. Roy McMillan, Bud Harrelson, Rafael Santana, Ron Gardenhire, Kevin Elster, Frank Taveras, and Rey Ordonez didn't strike fear in many pitchers.

Bret Sabermetric Jan 07 2006 10:28 PM

I'm not saying Bud was, on balance, a terrific player--even in the context of the sixties his numbers are incredibly weak. But by promoting him, and living with his limitations, and others like Garrett and Gentry and Grote and Boswell and Swoboda and Kranepool, the Mets were able to afford the Clendenons and the Staubs. The analogy is to the solutions currently in the farm system, if they would only look for them, who could play a position or two and free up payroll for superstar FAs elsewhere. It's the height of foolishness to pay top dollar for mediocrities like Matsui and Mientkiewicz when there are probably kids in the farm system (someone else's if not ours) who could do a decent job for cheap.

MFS62 Jan 08 2006 04:40 PM

Is it safe to say that the only Met shortstop who went on to hit .300 for another teams after leaving the Mets was Aaron Ledesma? And that was in limited duty. And Felix Mantilla went to Boston and hit over 30 Homers (IIRC) with about a .275 BA. Thise were pretty decent offensive numbers for a pre-Ripken shortstop. Of course, from Vern Stephens and Joe Cronin to Rico Petrocelli, while other teams looked at short as a defensive position as someone said above (Zvon?) , the Sawks always seemed to have decent hitting shortstops in the pre-Ripken days. Later

Yancy Street Gang Jan 08 2006 05:54 PM

Kevin Elster had a big offensive season years after he left the Mets. I think he once drove in 100 runs for the Texas Rangers.

MFS62 Jan 08 2006 06:16 PM

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Kevin Elster had a big offensive season years after he left the Mets. I think he once drove in 100 runs for the Texas Rangers. Close- his textbook definition of a career year saw him hit 24 HR with 99 RBI. (and I wonder if he still blames some slow footed player for not scoring from second on his single) Later

KC Jan 08 2006 06:28 PM

Sal, er, I mean Bret ... when you start talking about the 60's and drawing analogies and say things about living with limitations so a team can do this and that - I wanna do that B film comedy bullshit sneeze thing. It's probably just me. Sorry.

Elster88 Jan 08 2006 07:49 PM

Bret Sabermetric wrote: What we're saying here, seems to me, is that we've never had an adequate offensive shortstop (outside of HoJo, and he hardly counts as a shortstop), which is fairly amazing. Is there a team anywhere that went over four decades without a superior offensive season at a position? So what you're saying is, most teams have had an above average shortstop, and that it takes a rare, very poorly run team to have had the Mets' history at SS?

Elster88 Jan 08 2006 07:50 PM

]top dollar for mediocrities like Matsui and Mientkiewicz when there are probably kids in the farm system (someone else's if not ours) Fortunately, the Mets didn't do this.

Yancy Street Gang Jan 08 2006 09:20 PM

Well, they are paying top dollar to Matsui. I don't remember what Mientkiewicz was making, but I suspect he wasn't that expensive.

Bret Sabermetric Jan 09 2006 05:20 AM

Yancy--Mientk made [url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mientdo01.shtml] $3,750,000[/url] last year, or a smidgen less than Delgado. Personally, I'd rather have had Delgado. KC wrote: Sal, er, I mean Bret ... when you start talking about the 60's and drawing analogies and say things about living with limitations so a team can do this and that - I wanna do that B film comedy bullshit sneeze thing. It's probably just me. Sorry. It's not you. It's total bullshit. There are almost no similiarlties between the economics of 1960s baseball and 2000s baseball, particularly in terms of freeing up FA money. But it wasn't uncommon, especially when Hodges wanted to make a point to complacent and well-paid veterans, for some fresh kid to make the team and sometimes the starting lineup or rotation with a good Spring Training. When's the last time that happened around here?

Bret Sabermetric Jan 09 2006 06:02 AM

Elster88 wrote: ="Bret Sabermetric"]What we're saying here, seems to me, is that we've never had an adequate offensive shortstop (outside of HoJo, and he hardly counts as a shortstop), which is fairly amazing. Is there a team anywhere that went over four decades without a superior offensive season at a position? So what you're saying is, most teams have had an above average shortstop, and that it takes a rare, very poorly run team to have had the Mets' history at SS? No, I'm just saying exactly what I'm saying. I can't think of another team that, since 1962, has never had a superior offensive season at a single position. Off the top of my head, for example, I can easily name you multiple Mets at other positions who've had superior offensive years (as measured by OPS+ over a full year): C Piazza, obviously, Carter, Hundley,maybe even Stearns (I'll suggest that the Mets might actually lead baseball in most OPS+ full seasons for catchers since 1962, despite a very slow start) 1B Hernandez, Olerud, probably Brogna 2B Kent, Hunt SS ???? 3B HoJo, Ventura, Wright RF Straw, Staub CF Agee, Lance Johnson LF McReynolds, Gilkey, Floyd

MFS62 Jan 09 2006 07:15 AM

Bret, you forgot Cleon Jones' 151OBS+ in 1969. Later

Bret Sabermetric Jan 09 2006 08:31 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jan 09 2006 09:24 AM

I forgot plenty. That was just off the top of my flat head. The point is that better-than-average offensive years come, for most teams, 2 out of three years (or more) at 1B or LF, and perhaps 1 in 5 years (or even or 1 in 10) at SS and C. So far, the Mets are 0-for-44 at SS. I think that's very unusual. Elster thinks I'm making some point here beyond that. I'm not. It's just unusual.

Bret Sabermetric Jan 09 2006 08:46 AM

Also, I doubt what I said about catcher--teams since 62 with more strong offensive catcher's season are probably NYY (Howard, Munson, Posada), Cincy (Bench), Detroit (Freehan,, Parrish, Tettleton,) the Cards (Simmons and Porter), Boston (Fisk, Varitek), maybe even Montreal (Carter).

Bret Sabermetric Jan 09 2006 09:42 AM

Just running down the NL since 1962, for example, off the top of that flat head, here's at least one superior offensive season for a team's shortstop (bear in mind that some of these teams have had many such years, and several such shortstops. I just stopped when I remembered one who qualified): Atlanta Blauser Chicago Dunston Cincinnati Concepcion Houston Thon Los Angeles Wills NY Mets ??? Philadelphia Rollins Pittsburgh Alley St. Louis Ozzie San Francisco Aurelia

TheOldMole Jan 09 2006 10:12 AM

SL and San Diego Templeton

RealityChuck Jan 09 2006 11:09 AM

And why does this matter?

Bret Sabermetric Jan 09 2006 11:18 AM

Just geek stuff, 's all. Just numbers. No importance, really. But can you name another team that's been around since 1962 who have a position that's never turned in a positive OPS+ over a whole season?

Elster88 Jan 09 2006 04:26 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jan 09 2006 04:29 PM

]Mientk made $3,750,000 last year, Ugh. That was more than I thought. I retract my previous statement and apologize to the court. ________________ This post had the designation 88) Randy Myers

Elster88 Jan 09 2006 04:28 PM

Bret Sabermetric wrote: Elster thinks I'm making some point here beyond that. I'm not. It's just unusual. I did. It really seemed like you did, still does just from rereading that one post. Thanks for the clarification. SC = zero.

Yancy Street Gang Jan 09 2006 04:51 PM

I didn't realize Mientkiewicz made that much either. That was way more than Mientkiewicz was worth.

vtmet Jan 09 2006 05:06 PM

a minor league contract was more than Doug MieSwingWasMadeForArtificialTurfButMyWheelsWereNotWicz was worth...he panned out like I expected, no wonder why the Sox only wanted an injured single A player for him...

KC Jan 09 2006 05:10 PM

I think the Sox sent some money over with Eye Chart in the trade. I don't know what % of that huge salary though.

Edgy DC Jan 09 2006 05:17 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jan 09 2006 08:26 PM

The cash was $450K to cover the 2006 buyout of Mientkiewicz, available to the Mets if and only if they needed it for that purpose. They needed it for that purpose. Bladergroen wasn't typically described by too many opposing the deal at the time as only an injured single A player.

vtmet Jan 09 2006 05:20 PM

I remember...I was in the "why are we giving up a good power hitting prospect at a position that we are weak for a guy that hits like Rey Ordonez at an offensive positon" group...now I'm just in the "why did we waste roster space and Millions of dollars" group...