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Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

G-Fafif Apr 17 2014 01:07 PM

Anthony DiComo lifts the curtain on the Mets' plan to hit more. Through hitting system, Mets aim to build winner Players are evaluated, rewarded based upon adherence to club's metric By Anthony DiComo / MLB.com NEW YORK -- About a week before Mets camp drew to a close in Florida, staffers gathered the team's hitters into a meeting room and laid out the organization's offensive philosophy, the tenets of which have long been well-publicized. Players were instructed to be selectively aggressive, swing at good strikes and, for the most part, let everything else pass by untouched. They were later shuffled into private meetings with vice president of player development Paul DePodesta, hitting coach Dave Hudgens, team psychologist Jonathan Fader and one of the front office's video analysts. There, Mets players received statistical breakdowns of their 2013 performances centered upon Bases Per Out, an internally developed metric that seeks to measure a player's overall offensive production. Players with less than three years of service time were told that their BPOs would determine bonuses tacked onto future salary offers. Each base -- one for a walk or single, two for a double -- would earn them $200 more than what they would otherwise receive. Each out would slice off $100. Such is the growing real-world manifestation of the Mets' rigid offensive philosophy. What began as gentle prodding from staff members in general manager Sandy Alderson's regime -- swing at strikes, not at balls -- has evolved into a system in which hitters are graded, judged, evaluated, acquired, traded, released and paid based upon their adherence to the system. The goal is to create a machine-like approach in which selectivity and intelligence can be just as important as sheer offensive talent. This is how the Mets hope to mold a winner out of a team with a mid-tier payroll and, by most estimates, less overall ability than the giants of the league. A team whose offense, through 15 games, has been arguably its greatest weakness. "I don't think it's any secret," Hudgens said. "I don't think it's rocket science. This is what all the top teams in the league do. We're just trying to be one of the top teams." * * * * * Hudgens did not invent this system, but as the Mets' hitting coach, he is its steward, its operations manager. Which, in turn, makes him one of the organization's most important employees. Cutting a hulking figure in the clubhouse, Hudgens is remarkably mild-mannered. When he managed Venezuela's Caracas team this winter and fans began volleying insults at his Twitter account, Hudgens routinely responded with messages such as, "God bless you and your family." Hudgens' offensive philosophy perfectly mirrors Alderson's, which is why he was hired in the first place. "He's an exponent of that, but he's not the only voice," Alderson said. "He's a big part of it, but it's not built around Dave." Hudgens is, in essence, a link between the front office and the coaching staff. Unlike pitching coach Dan Warthen, who is a holdover from Omar Minaya's regime, or third-base coach Tim Teufel, whose Mets ties run back decades, Hudgens has long been an ally of Alderson. The two worked together for years in Oakland, placing Hudgens on a short list of candidates once Alderson took over as GM. That tight relationship gives Hudgens more leeway than a typical hitting coach as he attempts to resuscitate an offense that ranked 12th in runs scored as recently as 2011, but fell to 23rd last year. The Mets' team on-base percentage also fell from .335 to .306 over that span. Still, Mets executives stress the importance of the process over results, which is why the organization considers it so critical for its players to understand not just what the Mets want, but why they want it, and how that will ultimately result in better success. To understand, for example, that walks are a byproduct of the system -- not its goal. That strikeouts are no worse than 400-foot flyouts, even if it means that through 15 games, the team is on pace to shatter Major League Baseball's team whiff record. "We don't want guys thinking in the box," DePodesta said. "We want them to have a certain deep understanding of just what it is we're trying to accomplish." When Alderson first became GM, he and his staff made their views on hitting known, but did not enforce them to any great extent. That changed quickly. By last summer, coaches at each Minor League level were actually keeping score of their players through a point system, which had no correlation with traditional statistics. A hitter who worked a favorable count, for example, earned one point. A hitter who swung at a pitch out of the zone, regardless of the result, lost one. "That was the first time, in my opinion, where they were trying to prove a point of what they wanted," infielder Josh Satin said. "And then this year, it seems like they're even taking it up another level." What is important is approach. In his spring meeting, Alderson -- who helped usher in the Moneyball era with the A's -- gathered his team together and defined the term Bases Per Out, showing them how the BPOs of players throughout the Majors tended to correlate into dollars and cents. The league's richest hitters, in general, are those with the highest BPOs. "It gives you something to shoot for," said outfielder Andrew Brown. The only problem is that to date, the club's offensive approach has not resulted in actual success. The Mets have scored dramatically fewer runs each year under Alderson, DePodesta and Hudgens, going from 718 in 2011 to 650 in '12, down to 619 last season. That makes 2014 a critical juncture for the system, which has now been in place for three full seasons. Over the winter, the Mets targeted free-agent hitters whom they felt would fit into their system, ultimately signing outfielders Curtis Granderson and Chris Young. All spring, they continued to work with the rest of their players -- an almost exclusively homegrown bunch -- on their approach. Now, once again, they are putting all that to the test. "It's getting better and better," Hudgens said. "You've got young guys you see coming up having a little more of an understanding of what we're trying to do. It takes time. It takes consistent work. It takes reminding. I've seen guys get better, but it takes time."

MFS62 Apr 17 2014 01:16 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

Each base -- one for a walk or single, two for a double -- would earn them $200 more than what they would otherwise receive. Each out would slice off $100. If they hit into a double play, does it cost them $200? Later

John Cougar Lunchbucket Apr 17 2014 01:22 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

This is the secret metric they ran on Chris Young and decided they couldn't go another season without him.

Benjamin Grimm Apr 17 2014 01:32 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

What's the formula for BPO? If you double and then advance to third on a groundout, do you get credit for two bases, or three?

G-Fafif Apr 17 2014 01:37 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

"We don't want guys thinking in the box," DePodesta said. "We want them to have a certain deep understanding of just what it is we're trying to accomplish." Trying to figure out if that means in the batter's box (they should just react to what they've had hammered into them) or "inside the box," corporate-speakishly.

batmagadanleadoff Apr 17 2014 01:37 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

The issue is whether a major leaguer whose natural hitting style is inconsistent with this Met metric can adjust. I mean, you can take Ruben Tejada into a room and tell him from here to eternity how a home run is worth more than a single until you're blue in the face. But if you expect ol' Ruben to start hitting HR's like he's Mike Trout, you're nuts. If it's true that Chris Young scores high on this metric --whatever this metric is-- then his acquisition might be worthwhile if the metric really does correlate highly with winning. Because it's probably easier to exploit this metric by getting guys like Young who might be extremely undervalued according to this metric than it would be to hope major leaguers mostly set in their ways are going to change their stripes dramatically. We'll see.

G-Fafif Apr 17 2014 01:42 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

The only problem is that to date, the club's offensive approach has not resulted in actual success. The Mets have scored dramatically fewer runs each year under Alderson, DePodesta and Hudgens, going from 718 in 2011 to 650 in '12, down to 619 last season. Subtract Reyes and Beltran and I don't know what the BPO will do, but it wasn't optimal for runs scored. I don't know if any of this is going to help Daniel Murphy, but if your Nimmos and Smiths come up and are "machines," then such geniuses!

G-Fafif Apr 17 2014 01:46 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

Mets allowing a second peek behind the curtain of their program in the last three weeks. I wonder how much of that is "cripes, we're not drawing, we have to convince people we're doing something besides striking out" since we've never seen any of these specific-type stories before. This visit to the statistical sausage factory, plus the game over .500, and be sure to arrive early for your free shirt Friday t-shirt.

Ceetar Apr 17 2014 01:48 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

sounds like it might simply be a ratio stat 2x Total Bases / Outs Made. It's not about home runs though, it's about making solid contact. Tejada has had a high line drive % in the past. It's no secret that pitches on the outside corner are harder to drive. So you zone in on a spot, and go for it. "Oh, this guy occasionally throws sliders that stay up a little when they're inside, I'm going to wait for that". This has benefits and drawbacks, much like any approach. It might help guys avoid swinging at junk pitches designed for weak contact or balls that tend to drop out of the zone. But it also might lead to more Ks, especially with 2 strikes where if you're only going to swing at certain pitches you're leaving part of the strike zone exposed. But obviously the whole thing is more nuanced than that. I'm sure there's a different 2-strike philosophy and that it differs for each player. Hudgens and (I don't remember the assistants name yet) are doing more than repeating rhetoric. It makes sense that a high-K high-power guy like Chris Young fits with their philosophy. I don't know if it's the "Best" philosophy, but it's seemingly viable enough. Ultimately though, it's about getting good players overall. You might be able to milk a little extra value out of these guys via a uniform system, but you can't put lipstick on a pig or hypnotize a 4th outfielder into being a star.

G-Fafif Apr 17 2014 01:51 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

First peek here.

batmagadanleadoff Apr 17 2014 01:52 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

Ceetar wrote: It's not about home runs though, it's about making solid contact. Tejada has had a high line drive % in the past. It's no secret that pitches on the outside corner are harder to drive. I know. I used HR's as an analogy.

batmagadanleadoff Apr 17 2014 01:54 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Ceetar wrote: It's not about home runs though, it's about making solid contact. Tejada has had a high line drive % in the past. It's no secret that pitches on the outside corner are harder to drive. I know. I used HR's as an analogy. How many 25 year olds with terrible walk rates transformed themselves into excellent base on ballers?

Edgy MD Apr 17 2014 01:58 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

Are we speaking of Tejada? Or somebody else in particular?

Ceetar Apr 17 2014 02:03 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

batmagadanleadoff wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: Ceetar wrote: It's not about home runs though, it's about making solid contact. Tejada has had a high line drive % in the past. It's no secret that pitches on the outside corner are harder to drive. I know. I used HR's as an analogy. How many 25 year olds with terrible walk rates transformed themselves into excellent base on ballers? a handful. But Tejada doesn't have terrible walk rates. average more likely, and both 2010 and 2011 he had about a half percentage above average. (he's at 7.5% career and average from 2010-2014 is around 8.1%ish) He's also got above average bordering on great K%. (14% compared to league average up around 19%.) Tejada also has a career .301 BABIP but it was .228 last year and is .258 this year. Also his OBP is a tick above league average so while that's not 'excellent' it's still well, average.

batmagadanleadoff Apr 17 2014 02:06 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

I used Tejada only for the general idea that maybe, a 24 or 25 year old major leaguer is mostly set in his ways. My post wasn't specifically about Tejada or about HR's. And I guess that Tejada isn't yet 24 or 25, so he wasn't a great example, I suppose. Neither was using the HR stat, because hitting HR's prolifically requires sheer physical strength at least as much as, and probably more so, than technique.

batmagadanleadoff Apr 17 2014 02:08 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

Ceetar wrote: Ceetar wrote: It's not about home runs though, it's about making solid contact. Tejada has had a high line drive % in the past. It's no secret that pitches on the outside corner are harder to drive. I know. I used HR's as an analogy. How many 25 year olds with terrible walk rates transformed themselves into excellent base on ballers? a handful. But Tejada doesn't have terrible walk rates. average more likely, and both 2010 and 2011 he had about a half percentage above average. (he's at 7.5% career and average from 2010-2014 is around 8.1%ish) He's also got above average bordering on great K%. (14% compared to league average up around 19%.) Tejada also has a career .301 BABIP but it was .228 last year and is .258 this year. Also his OBP is a tick above league average so while that's not 'excellent' it's still well, average. If anyone's following up on my posts, this isn't specifically about Tejada. I'll take the blame for not articulating my point better than I did.

Ceetar Apr 17 2014 02:12 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

batmagadanleadoff wrote: I used Tejada only for the general idea that maybe, a 24 or 25 year old major leaguer is mostly set in his ways. My post wasn't specifically about Tejada or about HR's. And I guess that Tejada isn't yet 24 or 25, so he wasn't a great example, I suppose. Neither was using the HR stat, because hitting HR's prolifically requires sheer physical strength at least as much as, and probably more so, than technique. This is his age 24 season. I'd actually guess that 24-25 is right around the end of where (most) guys really start getting set in their ways. A college draftee or non-top tier prospect probably is just starting to get to the majors so there's probably still a little bit of polish to go around. Of course, this isn't new. They started in 2011. Tejada was 21. even Daniel Murphy was only 26. It's system-wide. I'd guess it's guys like Nieuwenhuis, den Dekker, and Puello who we'd really want to 'judge' the system on. I wasn't trying to refute your point by using Tejada, just felt like looking up Tejada's stats when you mentioned him. Maybe he IS a good example of a guy who's not quite as talented but they're trying to get a little more value out of by this philosophy?

batmagadanleadoff Apr 17 2014 02:17 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

Ceetar wrote: I'd actually guess that 24-25 is right around the end of where (most) guys really start getting set in their ways. A college draftee or non-top tier prospect probably is just starting to get to the majors so there's probably still a little bit of polish to go around. If I had to guess, I'd guess that they're mostly set by 24, at least philosophically and stylistically. Hopefully, they'll improve their skill-sets, but they won't change the fundamental nature of their skill-sets. A 24yo with a low walk rate probably won't ever become a great walker, for example. And if I wasn't so lazy, I'd look this up so I can back up this post with some research, instead of just giving myself some wiggle room with the "If I had to guess" opening.

Ceetar Apr 17 2014 02:25 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

Skirts the border here, but Carlos Beltran might be a decent example. 21, 1999 6.4% 22, 2000 8.5% 23, 2001 7.7% 24, 2002 9.8% 25, 2003 12% 26, 2004, 13% 27, 2005, 8.6% 28, 2006, 15.4% 29, 2007, 10.9%

MFS62 Apr 17 2014 04:00 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

Just a tangental thought. Isn't rewarding a player like that contraty to MLB contract guidelines? IIRC, you can only include performance bonuses for things like games played or innings pitched, not "counting" kinds of stats. And taking money away for outs? I'm sure the Players' Association would have severe heartburn over that. Later

Ceetar Apr 17 2014 05:46 PM Re: Hit As We Say, Not As You Do

MFS62 wrote: Just a tangental thought. Isn't rewarding a player like that contraty to MLB contract guidelines? IIRC, you can only include performance bonuses for things like games played or innings pitched, not "counting" kinds of stats. And taking money away for outs? I'm sure the Players' Association would have severe heartburn over that. Later That's all BS anyway. they do whatever the hell they want for the most part. It's not quite the same as the contract though, and I think it's more part of rookie contracts under those first 5 years or whatever. i.e. I don't think this applies to David Wright, et al.