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LOBster roll?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr May 11 2014 05:46 PM

40-- FORTY-- left on base this series, including 17 (!) today. Third-worst in the majors with the bases loaded (.129/.194/.226 over 36 PAs). The current RiSP numbers are more middle-of-the-pack, but they're still not, y'know, good. Is the situational hitting-- specifically-- a problem? Is it an approach ("overpatience," e.g.) issue?

Ashie62 May 11 2014 06:13 PM Re: LOBster roll?

Maybe they just suck...

Frayed Knot May 11 2014 06:13 PM Re: LOBster roll?

And 40 is even worse than it sounds when you consider that they only scored a total of 11 runs over 31 innings in those 3 games.

Edgy MD May 11 2014 06:16 PM Re: LOBster roll?

Yeah, too much is made of LoB, and enough is made of the ratio of LoB:RS. I think part of it can be patience, but there's enough hidden value in patience that I can put up with that. The whiffing, however, can't continue. I want their next day off to be one long squeeze bunt clinic. Amazing to see EY make this game a showcase for his skills, such as they are. He may not be great, but he's the best him there is.

Ashie62 May 11 2014 06:17 PM Re: LOBster roll?

Its' hard to do if you tried...

John Cougar Lunchbucket May 11 2014 06:58 PM Re: LOBster roll?

Yeah its becoming difficult to advocate E YJ on the bench, as sensible as it seems. I think if the lineup was more solid top to bottom we'd perform better in this statistic. It's not that every rally comes to an end with Tejada, the pitcher struggles have also been a factor.

Chad Ochoseis May 11 2014 07:17 PM Re: LOBster roll?

The lineup includes four players with decent OBPs- Murph, Wright, Duda, and sometimes Lagares. Then there are five other lineup spots that are yielding abysmal production, clutch or not. So, the attack of the LOBsters isn't a surprise.

Frayed Knot May 11 2014 08:04 PM Re: LOBster roll?

I think the degree to which it's existing is at least a bit beyond normal. It's also been lately that it's gotten worse. I maintain that on the recent road trip there was some bad luck involved, hitting at 'em balls, etc. This series though they simply weren't hitting much and the w/RiSP things just fell totally flat.

batmagadanleadoff May 11 2014 08:52 PM Re: LOBster roll?

It could be worse. At least they're getting on base. Occasionally.

Ceetar May 12 2014 07:40 AM Re: LOBster roll?

Howie and Josh were absolutely beating the strikeout/situational angle to death this weekend. There's some of that. Clearly if you field a power/K team you're going to have some LOB issues but you're also going to have some bloop-blast situations too on the other side where you get two quick hits and two quick runs instead of a single a stolen base, an infield ground out, and a sac fly. It's just that right now those hits aren't quite coming. Wright's not hitting it over the wall, Granderson started way slowly and while he's better, he isn't smoking it either. C. Young..well, he's shown some power and he's had less time. I feel bad discrediting him right now at the depths of the slump the same way I feel like I don't want to overcredit Murphy's team-leading fWAR and 800+ OPS at the height of a hot streak. Lagares is fine but not a power hitter, Eric Young is a great pinch runner or a guy to pinch-hit in one of those obvious contact spots but otherwise he gives you nothing. Tejada, who at least isn't making out at a league-average rate (don't discount the value of a walk in those high-leverage situations as solely quoting average will do). But the weather will heat up and those guys WILL hit there home runs. Sometime soon, we'll be down 3-2 in the 8th with first and third and one out and anti-Kers will be clamoring for 'just make contact' and Granderson will pop one and we'll win 5-3. It might even be tonight.

Frayed Knot May 12 2014 07:48 AM Re: LOBster roll?

Ceetar wrote: Clearly if you field a power/K team you're going to have some LOB issues ... The problem is that they're a Power/K team without the power. And while they might improve on that as the season wears on--considering that they're dead last in HRs & SLG and 4th in Ks they almost can't NOT improve--they're never going to be GOOD at power with this bunch.

Ceetar May 12 2014 07:57 AM Re: LOBster roll?

Frayed Knot wrote: Ceetar wrote: Clearly if you field a power/K team you're going to have some LOB issues ... The problem is that they're a Power/K team without the power. And while they might improve on that as the season wears on--considering that they're dead last in HRs & SLG and 4th in Ks they almost can't NOT improve--they're never going to be GOOD at power with this bunch. That was sorta the rest of my point. If Young/Wright/Granderson/Duda hit more home runs, and they will, most of this is mitigated. It's not crazy top of the league power, but it'd certainly alleviate some of this disaster. And really, the other guys aren't the K guys. Lagares/Tejada/Murphy are more of the contact guys. So as I sorta thought in the offseason, a lot hinges on d'Arnaud. Is he gonna be a high-K/low value contribution this year? Will Flores if they play him instead of Tejada? That honestly might be the difference over the course of the season if they're a frustrating LOB team or an above average offense.

Edgy MD May 12 2014 08:00 AM Re: LOBster roll?

It may not come to pass forthwith, but I think Lagares does have power potential. He's got upper-body strength, maybe as much as anybody other than Recker. Clearly that's only one factor in slugging the ball out, but it's there.

Ceetar May 12 2014 08:10 AM Re: LOBster roll?

Edgy MD wrote: It may not come to pass forthwith, but I think Lagares does have power potential. He's got upper-body strength, maybe as much as anybody other than Recker. Clearly that's only one factor in slugging the ball out, but it's there. 9.9% XBH this season so far. Perhaps as he gets more experience, and perhaps selects better pitches?, a couple more actually go out? I'll buy it. Looking though I was wrong about Juan being a contact guy. slightly above league average K rate.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr May 12 2014 11:32 AM Re: LOBster roll?

Yeah, he's-- at present-- more of a 'not-power' guy than a contact guy. His swing judgement is pretty much the same as last year. Considering that his line-drive percentage is just a little bit higher than last year, and that his BABIP is way up (.386 to .310), the regression-to-mean is coming faster than Juanny closing on a sinking gap liner. As far as the question at hand... I do tend to think it's just normal in-season fluctuation that feels like something more. (The high-strikeout tendencies probably tend to make our team-wide, day-to-day variance in stuff like RiSP just a little bit bigger.) I just wonder if I'm missing something else in the numbers that might explain the sinking feeling my eyes give me.

Benjamin Grimm May 12 2014 11:48 AM Re: LOBster roll?

Edgy MD wrote: Yeah, too much is made of LoB, and enough is made of the ratio of LoB:RS. Yes, I've been thinking this like, forever. An inning in which you score eight runs, but leave three on base, is much different from an inning where you score zero runs and leave three on base. An inning has to end some time, and it's not necessarily a mark of some kind of failure if not every runner scores.

batmagadanleadoff May 12 2014 12:33 PM Re: LOBster roll?

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Yeah, too much is made of LoB, and enough is made of the ratio of LoB:RS. Yes, I've been thinking this like, forever. An inning in which you score eight runs, but leave three on base, is much different from an inning where you score zero runs and leave three on base. An inning has to end some time, and it's not necessarily a mark of some kind of failure if not every runner scores. I totally agree. I never made a big deal about LOB's. I doubt that the stat correlates strongly, or even at all, to winning, or even scoring. It's a MacGuffin.

Frayed Knot May 12 2014 12:46 PM Re: LOBster roll?

Especially since, unless the scoring you're doing ends in a HR, many innings in which you score one or more runs ends with scattered LOBsters in the pot. The problem with this past series, as noted elsewhere, was the high LOBs coupled with the low RCPs (runners crossing plate).