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I would suck as a scout

Centerfield
Jul 23 2014 08:14 AM

Kind of inspired by the deGrom thread I started going through some of the Met prospects of the recent past and realized I would be a terrible scout. Looking through my past judgments, there are far fewer hits than misses. (I excluded the no-brainers like Reyes and Wright, who everyone got right, and Gregg Jefferies, who everyone got wrong.)

Misses
1. Victor Diaz. Was convinced this guy was going to be a star.
2. Justin Turner. "That guy is definitely an everyday player."
3. Jae Seo. We are really going to regret trading Jae Seo.
4. Dave Magadan. Is going to win the batting title year after year. Future Hall of Famer.
5. Jenrry Mejia. After watching him when he first came up, I didn't think he would be an effective starter or reliever.
6. Carlos Gomez. "Are people really upset that we traded the second coming of Roger Cedeno? Come on. The guy will never hit enough to be an everyday player."
7. Kevin Mitchell. "This McReynolds guy is solid. And we got him for a bench player? Nice!"
8. Jordany Valdespin. Looked like a good hitter to me. Though I guess there is still time for Valdespin to find himself.


Hits
1. Dillon Gee. Everyone said he didn't have major league stuff. But from what I saw, he had a low 90's fastball, good secondary pitches, and great control. He's been better than I would have expected, but I saw no reason why he couldn't be Bobby Jones.
2. Alex Escobar. Looked like crap from the very beginning. Turned out to be crap.
3. Jason Tyner. Really? We spend a number 1 pick on this 120 pounder? Worst #1 pick I can remember.
4. Ike Davis. Eventually anyway. When I saw his swing I thought this guy can't hit in the major leagues. Was happy to be wrong for a while, but eventually his suck potential kicked in. Ugliest swing ever.

Frayed Knot
Jul 23 2014 08:27 AM
Re: I would suck as a scout

I definitely didn't see Carlos Gomez turning into what he's become.

Nymr83
Jul 23 2014 12:47 PM
Re: I would suck as a scout

Frayed Knot wrote:
I definitely didn't see Carlos Gomez turning into what he's become.


6. Carlos Gomez. "Are people really upset that we traded the second coming of Roger Cedeno? Come on. The guy will never hit enough to be an everyday player."


I think I referred to him as a "Jason Tyner clone"!

Edgy MD
Jul 23 2014 12:55 PM
Re: I would suck as a scout

Our senses had been dulled. With Milledge's meh arrival shortly before his, and continuing backwards, Alex Escobar's failure to launch, Brian Cole's death, and Jay Payton's career taking shape only after 17 years of injuries, we had lost all faith in the viability of the Much-Ancitipated, Multi-Dimensional, and Transformative Outfield ProspectTM.

A 21-year-old Willie Mays could have landed in our laps and we wouldn't have seen him for what he was until it became so obvious so as to shame us.

Frayed Knot
Jul 23 2014 01:38 PM
Re: I would suck as a scout

I also think a lot of fan's sense of prospects changed in the internet age - both for good and bad.
The NYC newspapers and what passed for sports talk on other media back in the stone age, barely mentioned minor league ball or minor league players except to maybe tout some highly regarded "phenom" and even that has to go into quotes because because the information about him was as likely to be smokescreen planted by the club as it was an actual, unbiased opinion.
Now the information is out there for all to see an analyze, but so is either misinformation or just shoddy opinions from someone with more bandwidth than actual knowledge.


Looking at CF's lists above:

* Victor Diaz (mostly pre-internet era) -- the main 'buzz' on him is that he had won a batting title at AA or something. But he had few other skills to fall back on so if the BA wasn't up ...

* Justin Turner -- don't remember thinking of him as anything other than a utility player and certainly wasn't billed as such

* Jae Seo -- one of the earlier far-east players so there was some sort of mystique about all that. His problem was that he was strictly a fastball/change-up pitcher who lost some mph off the fastball after an injury and was only briefly what the team hoped because of the lack of difference between the two pitches.

* Dave Magadan (def pre-internet) -- I remember Kieth Hernandez saying that Magadan was going to be the #3 hitter after he (Keith) left NYM. But guys with little power, speed, or positional value to back it up have such a small margin for error. Nice career, just not a great one.

* Jenrry Mejia -- lots of hype coming up through the system but also real young so fans get impatient (constant problem with Caribbean players). Then TJ surgery has a way of throwing a wrench into the works.

* Carlos Gomez -- I already fessed up to blowing this one. I think a lot of people made the mistake of seeing the speed and trying to mold him into a slap-n-run hitter, Minnesota certainly did. I didn't see the defense either.

* Kevin Mitchell -- was tailing off in the 2nd half of his rookie '86 season, but rookie seasons will do that to a guy. But even counting on a bounce-back from that I don't know if anyone saw an MVP in the future.

* Jordany Valdespin -- his flair for the big moment obscured a lack of skills and discipline in some minds I'm sure. I personally never bought into him.
Just called up by Miami btw

* Dillon Gee -- I certainly think few saw the consistency and front of the rotation results that the last 12 months has produced. Now if he could only stay on the field

* Alex Escobar -- a classic case of how the internet age info fooled a lot of people. He burst onto the prospect radar after a terrific year as a teenager [u:3a2e19n0]in low-A ball[/u:3a2e19n0]. He then missed an entire season and never quite got back to the same level. Problem was, most folks never took off that 'Top Prospect' label with him even though it was several years old and only briefly accurate by the time he was called up.

* Jason Tyner -- I actually remember Peter Gammons lauding this pick. Not that he was predicting stardom or anything just that he thought it showed some ingenuity or something. Problem is, you can get away with being a Brett Butler type of hitter only if you can also play the ball-hawking CF[/i[ that Butler was at his best. Tyner, it turns out, was never either.

* Ike Davis -- looked good for a while and was out-performing most of the other 1st basemen taken in that year's 1st round.

Ashie62
Jul 23 2014 04:37 PM
Re: I would suck as a scout

I feel good about Michael Conforti...