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I'd like to see ...

Frayed Knot Jul 23 2014 06:45 PM

A chart, or a graph, or just some stats, on the percentage of No-Hitters completed based on how deep an in-progress NH was. IOW, we know the pct of no-hitters among all games. I mean I don't know that off the top of my head, but it's a known quantity. So then starting with say the end of the 6th inning, what percentage of No-Nos that survive the 6th eventually go all the way? (quite small I'd imagine). And then what pct succeed when a No-no gets to 19 outs, then to 20, then 7 full innings (21), and so on up to what pct fail after 2 outs in the 9th? What triggered all this, quite obviously, is that I found myself wondering during today's game as my rational side (I know he's perfect thru 6 full - but that's still a looooonnng way from pay dirt) was locked in an argument with my romantic side (yeah but wouldn't it be cool if ....). I was even about to type something on the order of 'NOW it's Freakin' On' had Cano (freakin' party pooper) made an out to end the 7th. But even had Bartolo gotten to that point I was thinking, y'know, even with just 6 outs to go the odds were probably still, what, 1 in 50? ... more? ... less? I think you'd have to use no-hitters as your sample because there are just so few PGs, both the successful ones and the near misses, that the data would be so much less meaningful. I'm sure you'd need the folks at Elias to fetch up that stuff, but I'd like to see that kind of data and I don't think I've ever seen/heard anything like it.

Ceetar Jul 23 2014 07:52 PM Re: I'd like to see ...

a ran a query a few years ago for someone about total no-hitters through..6,7,8 innings. Can I find it? (I found my Twitter DM about it. 32 games in 2012 got through 6 innings and 1593 since 1952) If I can find the query itself in one of my .sql files I can rerun through 2013 and change that to 7, 8, 9 innings and do a little math to see percentages.

Ceetar Jul 23 2014 08:07 PM Re: I'd like to see ...

1627,696,331,169 I'm 99% confident in those numbers. I'm pretty sure my query is correct. I calculated 169 no-hitters through 9 and Wikipedia lists 166 from 1952-2013 on the no-hitter list page. Must be 3 that didn't end there due to tie score. you got me curious. Oddly enough, I saved the file in stats/retrosheet and named it nohitterafter7.sql from 1952-2013 there were 1627 no-hitters through 6 innings, 696 through 7, 331 through 8 and 169 through 9 10.38% of no-hitters through 6 finish through 9. (you can ignore those 3 that didn't end, since that's really an argument about the offense) jumps up to 24.28% if you make it through 7. and 51.06% if you make it through 8. my query is on an innings level, I could probably tabulate based on outs somehow but that requires some though.

Frayed Knot Jul 23 2014 09:01 PM Re: I'd like to see ...

Wow, good work. Those odds: roughly 1-in-10 after 6, 1-in-4 thru 7, and 1-in-2 thru 8, are higher than I thought when this hit me during the game - although at the time I was thinking of PGs at the time rather than "merely" no-hitters.

Ceetar Jul 24 2014 07:13 AM Re: I'd like to see ...

I'm curious now what percentage of innings are no-hit innings. and how that relates to the 51% of finishing it after 8th.