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AL Playoff Matchup

d'Kong76 Oct 01 2014 09:06 AM

Guess I could have stayed up a little longer! KANSAS CITY, Mo. - The Kansas City Royals, their eyes stinging from the champagne, their throats burning from screaming, kept trying to make sense of it all. They know they somehow won this crazy game, one that was already being declared as the most exhilarating postseason victory in franchise history. But they still can't find the words. "It was the craziest game I've ever been part of, in all my life,'' Royals left fielder Alex Gordon says. "It didn't look good there for a while, but we just kept battling and battling. It's like we weren't ready to go home. "And then we won. Please don't ask me how.'' The Royals pulled out a stunning 9-8, 12-inning victory over the Oakland A's, refusing to quit when it would be so easy to do so.

d'Kong76 Oct 02 2014 08:34 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Detroit at Baltimore When: 5:30 PM ET, Thursday, October 2, 2014 Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland SportsDirect Inc. The Detroit Tigers are enjoying their fourth straight American League Central Division crown but are still looking for their first World Series title since 1984. The Baltimore Orioles, who host Tigers in Game 1 of the AL Division Series on Thursday, are appearing in the postseason for the second time in three years after a drought of 15 seasons. The AL East champion Orioles battled into the last week for the best record in the AL after running away with the division. Detroit has been in postseason mode for the last month while fighting off the Kansas City Royals in the Central and appear primed for the series with Justin Verlander coming around to solidify the rotation. The question with the Tigers has always been the bullpen, but closer Joe Nathan did manage to put together four straight scoreless appearances to close the regular season and Anibal Sanchez has been added to the setup mix. Baltimore does not have the big-name starters like Detroit but overcame the loss of Manny Machado and Chris Davis on offense thanks in part to a bullpen that ranked third in the AL with a 3.10 ERA. TV: 5:37 p.m. ET, TBS PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Max Scherzer (18-5, 3.15 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Chris Tillman (13-6, 3.34) Scherzer is set to make a killing in free agency this winter and can only increase his market value with another successful postseason. The reigning Cy Young Award winner appeared in four playoff games last fall and went 2-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 22 1/3 total innings. Scherzer has not faced Baltimore since a pair of starts in 2013, when he allowed four runs in 14 innings. Tillman had a string of 20 straight starts allowing three or fewer earned runs come to an end in his final regular-season turn at Toronto on Friday, when he was reached for four runs and 11 hits in six frames. The 26-year-old did not walk a batter in that start and has issued two or fewer free passes in each of his last five outings. Tillman last faced the Tigers in Detroit on April 6 and held them to one run on five hits in 8 1/3 innings to pick up the win. WALK-OFFS: 1. The Tigers took five of six in the regular-season series, though all six contests happened before mid-May. 2. Orioles 1B Steve Pearce (wrist) missed five of the final nine games, but will be in Thursday's lineup. 3. Detroit 1B Miguel Cabrera went 10-for-25 with a pair of home runs and nine RBIs in the six meetings with Baltimore and finished the season strong with a 1.118 OPS in September. ************************************************ Kansas City at LA Angels When: 9:00 PM ET, Thursday, October 2, 2014 Where: Angel Stadium of Anaheim, Anaheim, California SportsDirect Inc. Jered Weaver will try to cool down Kansas City when the Los Angeles Angels host the revved-up Royals in Game 1 of the American League Division Series on Thursday. Kansas City recorded a wild 9-8, 12-inning victory over the Oakland Athletics in Tuesday’s wild-card game, stealing seven bases to match a postseason record and scoring twice in the bottom of the 12th for the win. The Angels led the AL with 98 victories and won the AL West by 10 games. There was a lot of chatter about Garrett Richards supplanting Weaver as Los Angeles’ ace until Richards suffered a season-ending knee injury. Weaver ended up tied for AL lead in victories and he is being counted on to step up in a postseason in which Los Angeles expects to reach the World Series. The Royals, who displayed big-time resilience in the wild-card victory, will start Jason Vargas – Weaver’s former college teammate at Long Beach State. TV: 9:07 p.m. ET, TBS PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals LH Jason Vargas (11-10, 3.71 ERA) vs. Angels RH Jered Weaver (18-9, 3.59) Vargas had a rough September, going 1-3 with a 6.57 ERA in five outings. He had a 6.10 ERA in two no-decisions against Los Angeles this season and is 5-4 with a 3.02 ERA in 15 career appearances (14 starts) against the Angels. Vargas went 9-8 with a 4.02 ERA for Los Angeles in 2013 before leaving as a free agent and signing with Kansas City. Weaver didn’t face the Royals this season and is 7-4 with a 2.21 ERA in 12 career starts. This will be his fourth career postseason start and he is 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA in six appearances (three starts). Weaver went 3-2 with a 3.66 ERA in five September starts and gave up three homers while losing to Seattle in his final regular-season start. WALK-OFFS: 1. The teams split six regular-season meetings this season. 2. Los Angeles LF Josh Hamilton (shoulder) pronounced himself ready after missing 22 of the final 23 regular-season contests. 3. Kansas City DH Raul Ibanez is 15-for-36 with four homers against Weaver, while LF Alex Gordon is 4-for-20 with nine strikeouts.

bmfc1 Oct 02 2014 10:44 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Raise a Natty Boh and go O's!

Frayed Knot Oct 02 2014 06:41 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Tigers have tried four or five different guys at SS and have had trouble there all year long.

Frayed Knot Oct 02 2014 06:43 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Joba Chamberlain in for Detroit

Lefty Specialist Oct 02 2014 06:50 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Ha. Joba still sucks.

Frayed Knot Oct 02 2014 06:54 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

From the 'Rooting Interest' thread Frayed Knot wrote: Mets Guy in Michigan wrote: How about a little love for Motown and the Detroit Tigers! The Mets won a World Series more recently, with Tigers not winning a World Series since the Bless You Boys team of 1984. It's our turn!! Now all they need is a closer and a SS I believe I had that one.

Edgy MD Oct 02 2014 07:36 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Birdland is rocking tonight.

Lefty Specialist Oct 03 2014 03:42 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

So is the downtown residential population of Kansas City.

Edgy MD Oct 03 2014 06:18 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Frayed Knot wrote: Tigers have tried four or five different guys at SS and have had trouble there all year long. They should try Mickey Stanley.

Edgy MD Oct 03 2014 07:50 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

The Aoki Strategy: Run back and forth in confusion and then make a last-second stab. How long is that gonna work?

d'Kong76 Oct 03 2014 08:30 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Detroit at Baltimore When: 12:00 PM ET, Friday, October 3, 2014 Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland SportsDirect Inc. Nelson Cruz settled for a one-year, $8 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles in the offseason and has already proved to be a great bargain. Cruz will look to continue his postseason dominance when the Orioles host the Detroit Tigers in Game 2 of their American League Division Series on Friday. Cruz hit a two-run homer in Thursday’s Game 1 victory and has 15 home runs in 35 career postseason games while being a particular pest to the Tigers. Cruz homered six times in a six-game series win over Detroit when he was with the Texas Rangers in 2011 and picked up right where he left off with a first-inning blast Thursday as the Orioles went on to grab a 12-3 victory. There were five home runs in total in Game 1, with the Tigers managing three solo blasts and nothing else. The big question surrounding Detroit coming into the series was in the bullpen, and the team did little to answer those concerns as Joba Chamberlain, Joakim Soria and Phil Coke combined to give up seven runs while recording two outs in the eighth inning. TV: 12:07 p.m. ET, TBS PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Justin Verlander (15-12, 4.54 ERA) vs. Orioles LH Wei-Yin Chen (16-6, 3.54) Verlander seemed like a candidate for the bullpen in the postseason until turning things around over the final two weeks with back-to-back strong outings. The former MVP allowed a total of two runs and 14 hits in 15 1/3 innings to earn wins over Kansas City and Chicago. Verlander is 9-2 with a 3.43 ERA in 15 career starts against Baltimore but was knocked around for five runs in six innings at Orioles Park at Camden Yards on May 14. Chen allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last five starts but took the loss in the last two. The Taiwan native issued only 35 walks in 185 2/3 innings in 2014 and yielded just one home run in those five September outings. Chen missed Detroit earlier this season and is 1-0 with six runs allowed in 11 total innings over two starts in his career against the Tigers. WALK-OFFS: 1. Cruz has 16 RBIs in seven career postseason games against the Tigers. 2. Detroit OF Rajai Davis (sprained pelvic ligament) was removed from Game 1 and is day-to-day. 3. Baltimore LHP Zach Britton was used for only five pitches in Game 1 while LHP Andrew Miller used 32 pitches over 1 2/3 hitless innings. ******************************* Kansas City at LA Angels When: 9:30 PM ET, Friday, October 3, 2014 Where: Angel Stadium of Anaheim, Anaheim, California SportsDirect Inc. Matt Shoemaker recovered from an oblique injury and draws the start for Game 2 when the host Los Angeles Angels try to even their American League Division Series against the Kansas City Royals on Friday. Shoemaker suffered the injury against Seattle on Sept. 15 and was pronounced fit after a bullpen session. “That was the most encouraging thing in coming out of the bullpen,” Shoemaker said at his Thursday press conference. “It felt like I just played a few days before that instead of being off two weeks.” The Royals won Thursday’s opener 3-2 as Mike Moustakas hit the game-winning homer in the 11th inning, his first blast since Aug. 25. Rookie Yordano Ventura receives the ball for Kansas City just three days after experiencing a rough relief outing and allowing a three-run homer to Oakland’s Brandon Moss in the AL wild-card game. “I learned that things do happen very quickly, and that I got myself into trouble in that situation,” Ventura said at his press conference. “Even though I don’t treat it as a different game, it is a different game.” TV: 9:37 p.m. ET, TBS PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Yordano Ventura (14-10, 3.20 ERA) vs. Angels RH Matt Shoemaker (16-4, 3.04) Ventura won five of his last six regular-season decisions to cap off an impressive rookie season. Despite his lack of experience, Ventura was picked as the No. 2 starter despite the presence of tough left-hander Danny Duffy and veteran righty Jeremy Guthrie. “Well, if you watched this kid pitch all summer long, he’s got great composure for a young guy,” Kansas City manager Ned Yost said in his press conference. Shoemaker is 0-1 with a 10.00 ERA in two 2014 starts against the Royals and was roughed up for eight runs and 11 hits in four innings in the second outing. “That was probably his worst start of the season,” Angels manager Mike Scioscia said in his press conference. “If you look at Matt when he’s thrown the ball well and probably his last eight starts, arguably he was our best pitcher.” Shoemaker won seven consecutive decisions to end the regular season. WALK-OFFS: 1. Both teams had just four hits in the opener with Los Angeles going 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position. 2. Kansas City RHP Greg Holland picked up the save Thursday and has converted 21 straight opportunities dating back to July 24. 3. The Angels’ 2-3-4 trio of CF Mike Trout, 1B Albert Pujols and 2B Howie Kendrick were a combined 0-for-13 in Game 1.

Frayed Knot Oct 03 2014 12:41 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Tigers get 5 off of Chen and the O's but Verlander, w/a high-pitch count, can't get out of the 6th. 5-3 Detroit but with those dreaded words for Tiger fans: it's now a battle of bullpens

Gwreck Oct 03 2014 01:22 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Tigers have elected to forego using their regular relievers for a while and instead used starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez (came off the DL about a week before the playoffs) in relief of Verlander. Tigers got an extra insurance run on a Victor Martinez double in the top of the 8th.

HahnSolo Oct 03 2014 01:27 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

And Joba the Fatt allows two baserunners in the 8th bringing the tying run to the plate.

Zvon Oct 03 2014 01:34 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Bases Baltimored, 1 out, 6-4 Tiggers in the 8th.

HahnSolo Oct 03 2014 01:35 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

RBI hit by Pearce off Joba, then Soria walks Hardy to load the bases. Never mind the Tiger bullpen being ineffective, can they get anybody out?

HahnSolo Oct 03 2014 01:36 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

DELMON YOUNG! is alive and well. In the two 8th innings of this series, the O's have scored 12 runs in an inning and a third.

Zvon Oct 03 2014 01:37 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Wow. 7-6 Birds. What a sap of a pitch to Young. On review it wasn't that bad a pitch.

Edgy MD Oct 03 2014 01:38 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

God bless the eighth.

Zvon Oct 03 2014 01:40 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Whats more embarrassing for the Oriole leftfielder. The bobble, or the shot of him picking his nose and wiping it on his uniform?

Zvon Oct 03 2014 01:50 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Orioles win. Impressive comeback.

Lefty Specialist Oct 03 2014 01:58 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

What a concept. A team down 6-3 in the 8th inning comes back to win. Be nice to see that at a Met game occasionally. Oh, and Joba still sucks.

HahnSolo Oct 03 2014 02:06 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

I know they "take it one game at a time" blah blah blah, but this is an awful tough loss to bounce back from. I don't know how Ausmus has any confidence going to his pen at this point. Hope Price and Porcello can go 9, I guess.

Edgy MD Oct 03 2014 02:29 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Or shorten the rotation and tell Porcello he's now a reliever.

Mets Guy in Michigan Oct 03 2014 09:19 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

I was early to an event today so I grabbed a table at a McDonald's to grab a bite and use the wifi. Not far away was a table of older guys nursing their coffee and solving all the world's problems. Then, I heard one of them say, "That Joba Chamberlain, he looks like a terrorist!"

Gwreck Oct 03 2014 11:20 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Another extra inning homer for the Royals. About to take a 2-0 lead on the Angels before the series heads back to Kansas City.

Edgy MD Oct 04 2014 08:59 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

d'Kong76 Oct 04 2014 09:45 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Thundersticked! [youtube:2cs2z4mk]v2AC41dglnM[/youtube:2cs2z4mk]

Edgy MD Oct 04 2014 12:05 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Who doesn't want to hit that kid? He's straight from Central Casting for the role of "Big-mouthed pipsqueak that gets a beating he's totally asking for."

d'Kong76 Oct 05 2014 07:08 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Baltimore at Detroit When: 3:30 PM ET, Sunday, October 5, 2014 Where: Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan SportsDirect Inc. The Detroit Tigers traded for David Price at the deadline so that the former Cy Young Award winner could pitch meaningful games for the team in the postseason. It won’t get any more meaningful than Sunday, when the Tigers host the Baltimore Orioles in Game 3 of the American League Division Series needing a win to stay alive. Detroit is hoping for some length from the left-hander so it can avoid using a bullpen that has been a disaster in the first two games. The Tigers have allowed a total of 12 runs in the eighth inning in the series, with setup men Joba Chamberlain and Joakim Soria combining to surrender nine while recording only four outs. The bullpen breakdowns have obscured great efforts from Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez, who have combined for seven RBIs to pace Detroit's offense. The Orioles are getting more balanced production from their offense, and pinch-hitter Delmon Young delivered a go-ahead, three-run double in Friday’s 7-6 victory to give the AL East champions a 2-0 lead in the best-of-five series. TV: 3:37 p.m. ET, TBS PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Miguel Gonzalez (10-9, 3.23 ERA) vs. Tigers LH David Price (15-12, 3.26) Gonzalez allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last eight starts to lock up a spot in the postseason rotation, breezing through five scoreless frames in his final regular-season turn. The 30-year-old Mexican did not yield a run in three of his last five starts but completed seven innings in only one of those turns. Gonzalez faced Detroit twice early in the regular season and was ripped for a total of nine runs – eight earned – and 11 hits in 5 1/3 innings. Price pitched Detroit to the AL Central title by striking out eight over 7 1/3 scoreless innings against Minnesota on Sunday. The Vanderbilt product was up-and-down over the last five weeks of the season, allowing five or more runs in three of his final seven outings. Price is 1-4 with a 5.06 ERA in his postseason career and was lit up for seven runs in as many innings in the ALDS as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays last season. WALK-OFFS: 1. The Orioles have not won a postseason series since beating the Seattle Mariners in the 1997 ALDS. 2. Tigers CF Rajai Davis (abdomen) left Game 2 in the fourth inning and is day-to-day. 3. Baltimore DH Nelson Cruz is 4-for-8 in the series and batting .400 in eight career postseason games against Detroit. ***************************** LA Angels at Kansas City When: 7:30 PM ET, Sunday, October 5, 2014 Where: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri SportsDirect Inc. The Kansas City Royals look to complete a stunning sweep when they host the Los Angeles Angels in Game 3 of their best-of-five American League Division Series on Sunday. Kansas City won both of the first two games in extra innings on the road to shock Los Angeles, which had the AL’s best record in the regular season. “It’s not the position we want to be in,” Angels manager Mike Scioscia told reporters. “Nobody has their head buried in the sand, we need a three-game winning streak.” Mike Moustakas hit the game-winning homer in the opener and Eric Hosmer smacked the decisive blast in Game 2 as the Royals appeared to play looser than Los Angeles, the heavy favorites. “It’s fun to be the underdog,” Hosmer told reporters. “It’s fun to realize and go out there and play and you don’t have anything to lose and just let it all on the line.” Angels star Mike Trout has been one of his club’s underachievers, going hitless in eight at-bats in the series. TV: 7:37 p.m. ET, TBS PITCHING MATCHUP: Angels LH C.J. Wilson (13-10, 4.51 ERA) vs. Royals RH James Shields (14-8, 3.30) Wilson has struggled mightily on the road, going 4-8 with a 5.31 ERA in 16 starts. He was 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in two outings against Kansas City this season, and Scioscia is counting on a big performance. “C.J. dissects his ability and what he is trying to do on the mound more than anybody I’ve been around,” Scioscia said. “He has to find the balance between finding that edge and keeping his stuff where it needs to be.” Shields somehow has the nickname “Big Game James” despite his postseason ERA rising to 5.26 in seven career starts (2-4 record) after allowing four runs and five hits in five-plus innings against Oakland in Tuesday’s AL wild-card game. He is 6-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 13 career starts against the Angels, and closer Greg Holland said he is the key to Kansas City's starting rotation. “He leads by example, taking the ball every five days and giving his heart and soul,” Holland said in a press conference. “I think once you start rattling off good start after good start, it kind of builds on itself.” WALK-OFFS: 1. Kansas City is the first team in major-league history to play three consecutive extra-inning contests to begin a postseason - and win them. 2. Royals 2B Omar Infante, who is hitless in eight at-bats in the series, is 7-for-15 with two doubles against Wilson. 3. Angels LF Josh Hamilton, who is 0-for-9 in the series, is just 3-for-25 with 11 strikeouts versus Shields.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 05 2014 09:49 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

The Kansas City Royals look to complete a stunning sweep when they host the Los Angeles Angels in Game 3 of their best-of-five American League Division Series Stunning? It's three baseball games between good teams. It's practically a coin-flip.

d'Kong76 Oct 05 2014 10:27 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Stunning may be a little strong, but it's hardly a coin flip based on the odds below. And they won the first two in Thunderstick LAnd to boot, which was highly unlikely. Original odds to win the 2014 AL pennant Los Angeles Angels 2-1 Kansas City Royals 7-1 Original odds to win the 2014 World Series Los Angeles Dodgers 5-1 Kansas City Royals 16-1

batmagadanleadoff Oct 05 2014 10:33 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

d'Kong76 wrote: Stunning may be a little strong, but it's hardly a coin flip based on the odds below. And they won the first two in Thunderstick LAnd to boot, which was highly unlikely. Original odds to win the 2014 AL pennant Los Angeles Angels 2-1 Kansas City Royals 7-1 Original odds to win the 2014 World Series Los Angeles Dodgers 5-1 Kansas City Royals 16-1 If, by "original", those are pre-season odds, then they're meaningless now. And if those odds were set after season's end, I'd take those odds and bet the Wild Cards every single season. Wild cards have won five of the 19 wild-card era World Series, and lost five of them -- a showing extremely consistent with the idea that playoff baseball is a coin-flip.

d'Kong76 Oct 05 2014 10:51 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

batmagadanleadoff wrote: If, by "original", those are pre-season odds, then they're meaningless now. Before the playoffs started odds. batmagadanleadoff wrote: And if those odds were set after season's end, I'd take those odds and bet the Wild Cards every single season.Wild cards have won five of the 19 wild-card era World Series, and lost five of them -- a showing extremely consistent with the idea that playoff baseball is a coin-flip. Yeah, lotta coin flipping in these crazy four series. I'm not going to discuss it further with someone who probably isn't even watching the games because he thinks he knows the outcomes before a pitch is thrown.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 05 2014 10:53 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

d'Kong76 wrote: If, by "original", those are pre-season odds, then they're meaningless now. Before the playoffs started odds. And if those odds were set after season's end, I'd take those odds and bet the Wild Cards every single season.Wild cards have won five of the 19 wild-card era World Series, and lost five of them -- a showing extremely consistent with the idea that playoff baseball is a coin-flip. Yeah, lotta coin flipping in these crazy four series. I'm not going to discuss it further with someone who probably isn't even watching the games because he thinks he knows the outcomes before a pitch is thrown. You're the one who seems to know the outcome before a pitch is thrown, not me. I think that's my point: that I have no idea who's going to win -- because I think that every team, more or less, has the same chance to win.

d'Kong76 Oct 05 2014 11:06 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Circuitous mumbo-jumbo.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 05 2014 11:08 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

d'Kong76 wrote: Circuitous mumbo-jumbo. What does that mean?

Frayed Knot Oct 05 2014 11:28 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 05 2014 11:44 AM

batmagadanleadoff wrote: The Kansas City Royals look to complete a stunning sweep when they host the Los Angeles Angels in Game 3 of their best-of-five American League Division Series Stunning? It's three baseball games between good teams. It's practically a coin-flip. Even if one were to agree that each game between a best-in-MLB 98-win team and an 89-win WC team who had to survive an extra-inning playoff game just to get there were essentially 50/50 propositions (coin flips), that the one would sweep the other hardly is. Looked at one way the odds of a KC sweep (or KC being swept) would be .5 x .5 x .5 = 12.5%, aka 1 chance in 8. Another way to arrive at the same answer is to realize that there are 32 possible outcomes of a five game series [5 events with 2 possible outcomes = 2^5] In only 4 of those 32 does one of the teams not win a game from among the first 3 -- ex. Team A wins all 5, wins all except game 5, all but game 4, or all but 4 & 5. Now obviously in this set-up you stop playing after the first three all go one way, but those exceptions are still possibilities that exist. Now give the 98-win LAA a slightly better than even shot in a given game -- let's say 55% to reflect their better record + home field edge? -- and the Royals' odds of a sweep drop to more like 9% or 1-in-11 Hardly a 'coin flip'

batmagadanleadoff Oct 05 2014 11:44 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Agreed. I wouldn't think that it's even money whether or not the Royals sweep. Or whether or not the Angels sweep. But the Royals winning the series? I'd say it's a lot closer to even money than the odds reflect.

Frayed Knot Oct 05 2014 11:50 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Agreed. I wouldn't think that it's even money whether or not the Royals sweep. Then you probably shouldn't have gone out of your way to quote and object to the specific sentence with the adjective 'stunning' in it only to totally ignore the noun, sweep, that it was attached to. In doing so you were arguing against a point that wasn't being made.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 05 2014 11:56 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Frayed Knot wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: Agreed. I wouldn't think that it's even money whether or not the Royals sweep. Then you probably shouldn't have gone out of your way to quote and object to the specific sentence with the adjective 'stunning' in it only to totally ignore the noun, sweep, that it was attached to. In doing so you were arguing against a point that wasn't being made. Depends on your point of view. All the Royals have to do to sweep is win the next game, which if you ask me, is, more or less, a 50-50 proposition. That the Royals won the first two games, doesn't, in and of itself, make it less likelier that they'll win the next game. But, yes, I agree that going into the series, a sweep was unlikely, not just by the Royals, but by any team, in any series.

d'Kong76 Oct 05 2014 12:28 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

d'Kong76 wrote: Circuitous mumbo-jumbo. batmagadanleadoff wrote: What does that mean? batmagadanleadoff wrote: You're the one who seems to know the outcome before a pitch is thrown, not me. Nonsensical, I seem nothing of the sort.

Zvon Oct 05 2014 12:47 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

If the Royals sweep the Angels I will consider the achievement to be pretty stunning.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 05 2014 12:49 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Me too.

d'Kong76 Oct 05 2014 12:57 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Stunning! haha

Zvon Oct 05 2014 02:18 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Balt/Det: 0-0 mid second. I'm really trying to get into these games. But aside from The Royal Surge, all else pales.

Zvon Oct 05 2014 02:32 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

TBS has gone out on me. Anyone else lose the game?

Zvon Oct 05 2014 02:43 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Nevermind.. It's back. Cripes, that was out for over 10 minutes. 0-0 in the 3rd. I'm fortunate that baseball can make time stand still.

Zvon Oct 05 2014 02:57 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Things are getting interesting. Wacky play at 2nd on a pickoff. Never saw a pick-off like that before. The Tiger guy was seriously blocked off the bag, which I think is legal. Challenged and stands. 2nd & 3rd, 2 out, Tigers trying to get on the board...

Zvon Oct 05 2014 03:04 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Ha! Tigers suck. 0-0 Baltimore

Zvon Oct 05 2014 05:22 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Tigers are trying not to suck in the 9th. They score one. 2-1 OrangeBirds

Zvon Oct 05 2014 05:28 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Nope. Tigers suck. Birds fly.

MFS62 Oct 05 2014 05:31 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Before the post game interviews start, I'm gonna' bet a whole bunch of CPF-bucks that none of the Tigers will say, "If we had Derek Jeter, we would have won". But all bets are off as to whether or not one of the reporters will ask it. Later

Zvon Oct 05 2014 05:41 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Trout is out and about. 1-0 Laa's

Zvon Oct 05 2014 05:44 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Damn kid...I'd have jumped right in that fountain for a Trout POSTSEASON homer.

Zvon Oct 05 2014 06:00 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Wow. These Royals are for real! They answer right back in the 1st. Knocks the Laa's pitcher right off the mound already. Holy schmoly! 3-1 KC in the 1st.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 05 2014 06:08 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Zvon wrote: Wow. These Royals are for real! They answer right back in the 1st. Knocks the Laa's pitcher right off the mound already. Holy schmoly! 3-1 KC in the 1st. These Royals are freakin' stunning.

d'Kong76 Oct 05 2014 06:19 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

My coin flip has Angels, but what do I know?

Zvon Oct 05 2014 06:27 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Zvon wrote: Wow. These Royals are for real! They answer right back in the 1st. Knocks the Laa's pitcher right off the mound already. Holy schmoly! 3-1 KC in the 1st. These Royals are freakin' stunning. If you were watching earlier, one of the talking heads on TV did use the word "stunning". I chuckled.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 05 2014 06:35 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Zvon wrote: Zvon wrote: Wow. These Royals are for real! They answer right back in the 1st. Knocks the Laa's pitcher right off the mound already. Holy schmoly! 3-1 KC in the 1st. These Royals are freakin' stunning. If you were watching earlier, one of the talking heads on TV did use the word "stunning". I chuckled. I can't prove this, so I'll probably get it for saying so, but I believe that the media's using the word "stunning" to describe the Royals in this series, simply because they're ahead of the Angels -- i.e., the wild card survivor beating the team with baseball's best record. They'd describe the series as stunning even if the Royals beat the Angels three games to two.

d'Kong76 Oct 05 2014 06:48 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Either way, bro.. it's no coin toss. So far.

Zvon Oct 05 2014 06:50 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

batmagadanleadoff wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: Wow. These Royals are for real! They answer right back in the 1st. Knocks the Laa's pitcher right off the mound already. Holy schmoly! 3-1 KC in the 1st. These Royals are freakin' stunning. If you were watching earlier, one of the talking heads on TV did use the word "stunning". I chuckled. I can't prove this, so I'll probably get it for saying so, but I believe that the media's using the word "stunning" to describe the Royals in this series, simply because they're ahead of the Angels -- i.e., the wild card survivor beating the team with baseball's best record. They'd describe the series as stunning even if the Royals beat the Angels three games to two. The media does tend to latch on to a word and beat it into the ground. I'll back you on that.

Zvon Oct 05 2014 06:55 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

These little blue Royals might be goin' places. 5-1 KC

Zvon Oct 05 2014 06:58 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Papa Pujols goes BOOM. 5-2 & Kendrick just missed one by >< this much.

d'Kong76 Oct 05 2014 07:01 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Zvon wrote: The media does tend to latch on to a word and beat it into the ground. I'll back you on that. Oh, jeez ... it was a from a sports feed. Nothing beaten into the ground at all.

Zvon Oct 05 2014 07:09 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

d'Kong76 wrote: Zvon wrote: The media does tend to latch on to a word and beat it into the ground. I'll back you on that. Oh, jeez ... it was a from a sports feed. Nothing beaten into the ground at all. I meant just in general. Stunning has plenty of play left, jury is out on that. It just started. We'll see if it pops up more. If the Royals continue this run I'm betting it does.

d'Kong76 Oct 05 2014 07:13 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Ok, and you keep backing people on it!

Zvon Oct 05 2014 07:20 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

d'Kong76 wrote: Ok, and you keep backing people on it! I think the media does that, generally speaking. WHOA! The Royal Surge continues as Moustakas takes one out. 6-2, see the glory of The Royal Surge Just replace Scam with Surge: [youtube]F9D6TkKZW7Q[/youtube]

Frayed Knot Oct 05 2014 07:38 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

The Angels bench coach is named Dino Ebel? I hope he doesn't have siblings named Hearno and Speakno.

Zvon Oct 05 2014 07:43 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

WHOA! Look at all this leather. I officially jump on The Royal Wagon.

Frayed Knot Oct 05 2014 07:44 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Cain is able!

Zvon Oct 05 2014 07:56 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

[fimg=555]http://s3.amazonaws.com/media.wbur.org/wordpress/10/files/2013/07/0726_OAG-George-Brett.jpg[/fimg] "...George is getting excited!"

Frayed Knot Oct 05 2014 08:21 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

According to TBS announcer guy, the team with the best record in the majors has never been swept in the LDS round of the playoffs. So I guess that'll make it officially stunning if KC hangs onto this win!

Zvon Oct 05 2014 08:24 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Frayed Knot wrote: According to TBS announcer guy, the team with the best record in the majors has never been swept in the LDS round of the playoffs. So I guess that'll make it officially stunning if KC hangs onto this win! I can't think of a better word. 8-2 STGOTRS*bows before TRS

Zvon Oct 05 2014 09:11 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

The Royals need 3 more outs. 8-3

Zvon Oct 05 2014 09:12 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

2..

Zvon Oct 05 2014 09:15 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

1...wow,off the pitcher, bare handed from 2nd

Zvon Oct 05 2014 09:16 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

It has started to pour there.

Zvon Oct 05 2014 09:17 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Edgy MD Oct 05 2014 10:11 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

And a couple of Angels' fans end up beating a guy to the brink of death.

Zvon Oct 06 2014 12:27 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Edgy MD wrote: And a couple of Angels' fans end up beating a guy to the brink of death. I was gonna say sore losers, but both the attacker and victim wore LAA stuff. People are strange.

Edgy MD Oct 06 2014 07:28 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

"We're going to walk this guy, Showalter reportedly told the conferencers at the mound. "The next guy's going to hit into a double play, and we're gonna go home." Congratulations to Buck and all the Orioles.

Lefty Specialist Oct 06 2014 07:33 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Ballsy move by Buck, going against the book there. That's having faith in your players to execute.

Frayed Knot Oct 06 2014 08:00 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Beats being a slave to 'the book', or sticking strictly to a pre-arranged 'plan' (hello Matt Williams) But when you're trying to guard against the tying run as much as the winning one, AND the IW sets up a DP, AND the next hitter is weaker/less experienced than the current one, AND you've got the luxury of the two games to none lead, it does become the easier choice. Still, credit to him for going with it.

Ceetar Oct 06 2014 08:19 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

teams only scored .24 more runs with first and second than with just second. The weaker hitter and Britton's pitch profile probably negates that difference.

Frayed Knot Oct 06 2014 08:58 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Ceetar wrote: teams only scored .24 more runs with first and second than with just second. The weaker hitter and Britton's pitch profile probably negates that difference. Yeah but .24 is only an average of all outcomes starting from those situations and it's the 2nd run there, the one you're issuing a free pass to, that's the game loser. The stat you really want here is the percentage of times a team scores fewer than two runs given each set-up vs the pct they score two or more.

Ceetar Oct 06 2014 09:22 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Frayed Knot wrote: Ceetar wrote: teams only scored .24 more runs with first and second than with just second. The weaker hitter and Britton's pitch profile probably negates that difference. Yeah but .24 is only an average of all outcomes starting from those situations and it's the 2nd run there, the one you're issuing a free pass to, that's the game loser. The stat you really want here is the percentage of times a team scores fewer than two runs given each set-up vs the pct they score two or more. By definition it's even less than that. but you can do the math from there. It's all probability. teams score 1 run every 4 times they're presented with that situation, or 2 runs every 8. I mean, it's virtually meaningless anyway. run expectancy, just like calculating expected value in poker, is designed to win out over the long run. Buck makes that decision 100 times all the variables drop out and he's generally allowing about 24 more runs over that span. But if you see an individual situation that makes sense to you, just like if you were in a poker hand and were pretty sure the opponent had nothing, you might make the statistically-wrong call. Also those averages ignore the 'how you got there' state. If I had the time (I don't, nor is the 2014 data readily available to me) I'd like to run these run expectancy charts through a filter of previous state. I think what happened before matters, and I wonder, though doubt, if runs already in matter. But what I'm getting at is that 12- 1 out situations factor in getting there via 2 hits/walks, I'd like to sit the matrix for when you get to 12- 1 out via -2- 1 out versus 1-- 1 out. I bet the difference is even less.

Frayed Knot Oct 06 2014 09:43 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Ceetar wrote: but you can do the math from there. It's all probability. teams score 1 run every 4 times they're presented with that situation, or 2 runs every 8. No, that's not what your .24 stat is saying. It's saying (assuming that you're finding the same stats I am: Run expectations of .8623 vs .6235, or ~.24 difference) that teams score One Extra run in every four attempts depending on the base runners. Those are averages you're quoting, not probabilities. The percentage of times that a team will score two or more runs given the extra base runner vs not is a separate number (one which I can't find at the moment).

Ceetar Oct 06 2014 09:45 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Frayed Knot wrote: but you can do the math from there. It's all probability. teams score 1 run every 4 times they're presented with that situation, or 2 runs every 8. No, that's not what your .24 stat is saying. It's saying (assuming that you're finding the same stats I am: Run expectations of .8623 vs .6235, or ~.24 difference) that teams score One Extra run in every four attempts depending on the base runners. Those are averages you're quoting, not probabilities. The percentage of times that a team will score two or more runs given the extra base runner vs not is a separate number (one which I can't find at the moment). yes, specifically 2+ is different, and I don't know where you'd easily find that number without querying the database, but that first run is very important in this regard too, and avoiding it was also part of Buck's reasoning.

Frayed Knot Oct 06 2014 09:57 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Holding team to ZERO runs might increase slightly based on the increased GiDP odds But at the same time the 2-or-more odds have to jump some given that you're freely awarding the winning run the toughest 90 feet to get. I've seen tables like this in the past--ones that show pcts rather than averages--but can't seem to locate one now. And of course you'd want stats that are at least relatively up to date since run scoring in general is down these days. And we have to remember that any of those tables are only generic and can't take into consideration the specific batters & pitchers. I don't have a problem with what Buck did did given the players involved and the two game gap he had to play with. I'd just be curious as to how the individual pcts broke down.

Ceetar Oct 06 2014 10:11 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Frayed Knot wrote: Holding team to ZERO runs might increase slightly based on the increased GiDP odds But at the same time the 2-or-more odds have to jump some given that you're freely awarding the winning run the toughest 90 feet to get. I've seen tables like this in the past--ones that show pcts rather than averages--but can't seem to locate one now. And of course you'd want stats that are at least relatively up to date since run scoring in general is down these days. And we have to remember that any of those tables are only generic and can't take into consideration the specific batters & pitchers. I don't have a problem with what Buck did did given the players involved and the two game gap he had to play with. I'd just be curious as to how the individual pcts broke down. oh, I agree with you. I'm fine with the move. and I'd be interested to see those tables as well, though I don't think I've seen a 2+ runs one though. the numbers I posted were from 2014. Remind me when the 2014 data is available via retrosheet and maybe I'll try to recreate it myself. I'd also like to see an _exactly_ one run chart because while bunting with no outs and 1 on is generally bad and reduces scoring, when it's the bottom of the 9th of a tie game, I'm not so sure it's as bad as it's made out to be somtime.

Edgy MD Oct 06 2014 10:43 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

If it's the matchup you want, it's the matchup you want. Book says, "Don't put the winning run on base." OK, Mr. Smartybook, but if the tying run is at second, and Barry Bonds is at the plate, and Bartolo Colon is on deck, and there's absolutely nobody left to pinch-hit for him, what then? WHAT THEN, MR. SMARTYBOOK?!

metsmarathon Oct 06 2014 01:30 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

viewed strictly under the lens of win probability, walking castellanos added 5% to the tigers' chances of winning hte game.

Frayed Knot Oct 06 2014 07:23 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Edgy MD wrote: "We're going to walk this guy, Showalter reportedly told the conferencers at the mound. "The next guy's going to hit into a double play, and we're gonna go home." Congratulations to Buck and all the Orioles. One thing I hadn't realized is that this was the first time a Showalter team had won a post-season series. NYY 1992 - finished 4th w/Yanx 1993 - finished 2nd in the last pre-WC season 1994 - was in 1st place when the season was canceled 1995 - won the first ever AL WC but lost in 5 games to Seattle after taking a 2-0 leadm then was fired after the season and the Yanx went on to win four of the next five WS Ariz 1998 - finished 5th w/the expansion Diamondbacks 1999 - Won NL West but lost in a 5-game series to the WC NY Mets 2000 - Finished 3rd and was fired after the season, DBacks won WS the following year TEX: 2003 - finished 4th 2004 - finished 3rd 2005 - finished 3rd 2006 - finished 3rd, then was fired after the season BALT: 2010 - took over late in the season, finished 5th 2011 - finished 5th 2012 - Won WC plus the WC play-in game vs Texas, but then lost the 1st round to the Yanx 3-2 2013 - finished 3rd

Frayed Knot Oct 06 2014 09:30 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

... I'd be interested to see those tables as well, though I don't think I've seen a 2+ runs one though. t he numbers I posted were from 2014. Remind me when the 2014 data is available via retrosheet and maybe I'll try to recreate it myself. I'd also like to see an _exactly_ one run chart because while bunting with no outs and 1 on is generally bad and reduces scoring, when it's the bottom of the 9th of a tie game, I'm not so sure it's as bad as it's made out to be somtime. OK, here's an example of what I was talking about. That particular chart is for 1999-2002 but the idea is the same even if the numbers there won't correspond exactly to those of 2014 For the O's/Tigers situation specifically what we're looking at is the difference in scoring in those pre and post IW situations: Runner on 2nd/1 out vs runners on 1st & 2nd/1 out - odds of scoring 0 runs: 59.4% vs 57.4% - odds of scoring exactly one run: 23.0% vs 16.1% - odds of scoring exactly two runs: 9.8% vs 11.0% - odds of scoring 2 or more runs (the sum of the 2 thru 5+ columns): 17.5% vs 26.4% So, as expected, the odds of the O's losing the game in that inning by issuing the IW increased (assuming all other things being equal which they were NOT in this case) and a 9% jump in the odds is not a small difference. I would have expected the odds of no runs to increase slightly after the walk on account of the increased GiDP rate, but maybe the chances of 2 consecutive walks bringing in a run negated that plus a bit more The only odds that did decrease were those scoring exactly one run but that's not because the chances the offense would score at all went down but because the odds of them scoring only one run did.

Ceetar Oct 07 2014 07:24 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

The obvious caveat is that the league OPS in 2014 was .700 whereas the league OPS from 1999-2002 was somewhere around .765. Nearly 4000 more runs were scored on average in those years than in 2014 and more than a 1000 home runs. Those definitely mess with the scoring numbers, particularly the 'more than 1' bits. (You'll notice it even makes sense to bunt with runner on first no outs in the 9th of a tie game at home) I don't know if Tangotiger re-ran those queries for 2012-2014 or any other time. (The site referenced doesn't exist for pbp data and i haven't found an adequate parser, nor had time to write one, for current data) I don't see it on Fangraphs anywhere but I sometimes can't find that stuff. Just because it's so amazing, i'll include this. Kershaw had a 1.77 ERA this season in this run environment, Pedro Martinez, in 1999 (which was higher than those averages I mention above) had a 2.07 ERA. 1.74 in 2000.

Edgy MD Oct 07 2014 07:30 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Frayed Knot wrote: Edgy MD wrote: "We're going to walk this guy, Showalter reportedly told the conferencers at the mound. "The next guy's going to hit into a double play, and we're gonna go home." Congratulations to Buck and all the Orioles. One thing I hadn't realized is that this was the first time a Showalter team had won a post-season series. This was mentioned in the post-game, and he argued quite seriously that no, he had won a minor league post-season series with Oneonta or Fort Lauderdale or Albany or somebody. The interviewer was all, "Yeah, but.... the big leagues" and Buck was all, "They all count."

Frayed Knot Oct 07 2014 08:08 AM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Ceetar wrote: The obvious caveat is that the league OPS in 2014 was .700 whereas the league OPS from 1999-2002 was somewhere around .765. Nearly 4000 more runs were scored on average in those years than in 2014 and more than a 1000 home runs. Those definitely mess with the scoring numbers, particularly the 'more than 1' bits The specific numbers would change (they'd basically be lower all around) but the relationship between them all would remain more or less the same. IOW, it's not like the odds are going to reverse themselves as compared to how they were a decade ago; a (generic) move of giving the winning run a free pass to 1st will increase the odds that you lose the game in that inning. ... [Buck] argued quite seriously that no, he had won a minor league post-season series with Oneonta or Fort Lauderdale or Albany or somebody. The interviewer was all, "Yeah, but.... the big leagues" and Buck was all, "They all count." Buck was a career minor leaguer as a player and started managing at those levels very young. I'm not surprised that he takes that attitude. btw, do you know that BB-Ref is now tracking manager challenges for each skipper?

d'Kong76 Oct 09 2014 01:13 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Kansas City at Baltimore When: 8:00 PM ET, Friday, October 10, 2014 Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland SportsDirect Inc. The Kansas City Royals are entering their first American League Championship Series since winning the World Series in 1985. The Baltimore Orioles, who host the Royals in Game 1 of the ALCS on Friday, are back for the first time since 1997 and are searching for the franchise’s first pennant since 1983. The Orioles and Kansas City present a contrast of styles but got to the ALCS the same way – with strong starting pitching and dominant bullpen work. Baltimore led the majors in home runs and was last in stolen bases during the regular season while Kansas City was last in home runs but sat on top in stolen bases. The Royals do all the things well that teams need to do to win without hitting home runs, including playing great defense, but started to power up in the postseason with key extra-inning blasts from Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. Even without Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Matt Wieters in the lineup, the Orioles pounded Detroit pitching in the ALDS behind a strong series from Nelson Cruz and consistent production from Nick Markakis in the leadoff spot. TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH James Shields (1-0, 4.91 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Chris Tillman (1-0, 3.60) “Big Game” James was bailed out by his offense after allowing four runs in five innings in the wild-card game against Oakland and surrendered a pair of solo home runs before earning the win over Los Angeles in his lone ALDS start. The free agent to-be’s big-game reputation outpaces the actual results as he is 3-4 with a 4.96 ERA in eight career postseason starts, including 0-2 in the ALCS. Shields picked up a pair of wins over the Orioles earlier this season, yielding a total of five runs and 12 hits in 14 innings. Tillman battled through five innings against Detroit in Game 1 of the ALDS and held the Tigers to a pair of solo home runs in earning the win. The 26-year-old completed seven innings only once in his last seven starts but issued only one walk against Detroit while striking out six. Tillman had no trouble going deep into the game against the Royals on May 16, when he tossed a five-hit shutout. WALK-OFFS: 1. Cruz owns 16 career postseason home runs, including eight in 12 ALCS games. 2. Kansas City DH Billy Butler went 0-for-9 with three walks in the ALDS. 3. Baltimore LHP Andrew Miller totaled 3 1/3 hitless innings in the ALDS.

Edgy MD Oct 09 2014 01:20 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

d'Kong76 wrote: Baltimore LHP Andrew Miller totaled 3 1/3 hitless innings in the ALDS. This should explain those "Mets, Yankees Should Pursue Andrew Miller" pieces rolling out.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 09 2014 01:22 PM Re: AL Playoff Matchup

Also coming your way: "Mets should follow [crossout:1i9ihcai]Red Sox[/crossout:1i9ihcai] Orioles blueprint"