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Scouting Juan Lagares

Frayed Knot Oct 29 2014 07:01 AM

Even though I'm not the uber-nerdy prospect-head with nine fantasy teams going at once that tend to make up the majority of participants at John Sickels' 'Minor League Ball' site (arguments about who should be the 14th best prospect in each system are beyond both my knowledge and my interest) one of the things I like about that site is that Sickels makes it a regular point to go back and examine past evaluations (both his and others) in an effort to see where they were right, where they were wrong, and/or what's changed in the interim. Yesterday's topic involved one Juan Lagares (and, no, auto-correct Nazi, I don't mean Juan Laggers) and seeing how, going back to 2012, reports initially viewed him as a bat-first left-fielder or future utility man. It's not really clear exactly what changed or why his defensive skills were missed by early observers, but clearly things did as both the naked eye and all defensive metrics put him at the top of his position from almost the minute he reached the majors. Sometimes, as John himself says at the bottom of the comments section, "It is a good example of how we basically don’t know shit. We know more about baseball than we used to. We are learning more every day. We can make better predictions. But they are still just predictions, and Weird Shit will still happen sometimes."

MFS62 Oct 29 2014 07:44 AM Re: Scouting Juan Lagares

Frayed Knot wrote: Even though I'm not the uber-nerdy prospect-head with nine fantasy teams going at once that tend to make up the majority of participants at John Sickels' 'Minor League Ball' site (arguments about who should be the 14th best prospect in each system are beyond both my knowledge and my interest) one of the things I like about that site is that Sickels makes it a regular point to go back and examine past evaluations (both his and others) in an effort to see where they were right, where they were wrong, and/or what's changed in the interim. Yesterday's topic involved one Juan Lagares (and, no, auto-correct Nazi, I don't mean Juan Laggers) and seeing how, going back to 2012, reports initially viewed him as a bat-first left-fielder or future utility man. It's not really clear exactly what changed or why his defensive skills were missed by early observers, but clearly things did as both the naked eye and all defensive metrics put him at the top of his position from almost the minute he reached the majors. Sometimes, as John himself says at the bottom of the comments section, "It is a good example of how we basically don’t know shit. We know more about baseball than we used to. We are learning more every day. We can make better predictions. But they are still just predictions, and Weird Shit will still happen sometimes." Apparently the one defensive stat they all missed (but I didn't when I adopted him) was all those outfield assists. You don't get mid-teen assists with an average arm. You DO get them with a poor arm, because other teams run on you. But none of the scouts said his arm was poor. I had confidence Juan was the real deal. Later

Edgy MD Oct 29 2014 07:46 AM Re: Scouting Juan Lagares

It's good to see Sickels note that Amazin' Avenue was ahead of him and everyone else on seeing the defense. What he's not saying is that Lagares improved because he plays defense differently. And that's the key. He didn't see what was there because he was looking for different things --- or the things he should have seen hadn't shown up yet. Heck, a lot of centerfielders don't even get to play center in the AFL, and I could imagine that what makes him a superior centerfielder wouldn't even show up in left or right.

Frayed Knot Oct 29 2014 08:52 AM Re: Scouting Juan Lagares

Edgy MD wrote: It's good to see Sickels note that Amazin' Avenue was ahead of him and everyone else on seeing the defense. Amazin' Avenue is part of that whole 'SB Nation' network so there's a decent amount of cross-promotion among those sites. But even then, AA wasn't talking about his D until around the time he was called up. The key is why no one seemed to notice it 3 or 4 years ago. What he's not saying is that Lagares improved because he plays defense differently. And that's the key. He didn't see what was there because he was looking for different things --- And nor did just about anyone else apparently. Nickels does some scouting on his own but he also relies on the word of other scouts plus whatever network of contacts he's developed over the years. He wouldn't just be basing his reports on brief AFL observations alone. He even notes how Baseball America's reports were more or less the same as his: "fringy" speed and a LFer's arm. Maybe, for whatever reason, the defense just wasn't there until sometime in 2012 or so. That explanation doesn't make a lot of sense but, like he says, weird shit happens all the time.

metsmarathon Oct 29 2014 09:15 AM Re: Scouting Juan Lagares

without looking too deeply into it, as a converted infielder, he was likely never really looked into as a starting centerfielder all that much until the end of his minor league career, have more "established" centerfielders ahead of him on the depth charts as he moved along. as players moved around, he got his chances to show what he could do, and his skills and abilities translate perfectly to the position.

Edgy MD Oct 29 2014 09:17 AM Re: Scouting Juan Lagares

I think what they were looking for really wasn't there. I don't think it's in his tools. It's in his approach, which likely developed late, wasn't what a scout would be generally looking at, is hard to spot in the micro, and is most visible in center. I mean, he plays a short centerfield. Very aggressively short. That's not going to show up in a corner, because there just isn't the same benefit, as there isn't that triangle to defend. Similarly but different, his throwing isn't going to knock the scouts out because his arm isn't particularly strong. Nor is it needle-threadingly accurate. He gets the job done because he gets to the ball aggressively and releases it economically in the manner of an infielder charging a hopper. I can understand why scouts wouldn't see this until they had an extended look at him in center. I can see why he wouldn't even be showing this until he had a long look in center. Credit to the Mets for seeing it and helping develop it.

smg58 Oct 29 2014 11:44 AM Re: Scouting Juan Lagares

I agree with what mm and Edgy said. It starts with Lagares being a converted infielder; many infielders show good range when put into the outfield, but the amount of time it takes to get a consistent feel for how to read fly balls varies greatly. (Daniel Murphy had better range than most people realize, for example, but too many routine fly balls became misadventures.) Outside of presumably a few people in the organization, nobody had a long enough look at Lagares as an outfielder to see how quickly and uniquely he was getting it.