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Prospect season - 2014-15

Frayed Knot Nov 10 2014 12:26 PM

Baseball Prospectus begins with the NL East this year so they chime in first: 1 - RHP Noah Syndergaard 2 - LHP Steven Matz 3 - OF Brandon Nimmo 4 - SS Amed Rosario 5 - C Kevin Plawecki 6 - 2B Dilson Herrera 7 - RHP Marcos Molina 8 - 1B Dominic Smith 9 - OF Michael Conforto 10 - 3B Jhoan Urena Scouting reports hidden behind the pay wall. Some details discussed in comments section.

Edgy MD Nov 10 2014 12:52 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

It's a good thing we don't have a porn filter, or that list would have been blocked.

Frayed Knot Dec 16 2014 12:41 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

John Sickels posts his NYM list (with BA's due out tomorrow). I generally look forward to this review above any others. Not that he's any more likely to be right than anyone else but because he'll go beyond just ten deep, and that he assigns grades and descriptions that go beyond just an ordinal list, and the fact that none of it is hidden behind a pay wall helps too. 1) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade A-: Age 22, 4.60 ERA with 145/43 K/BB in 133 innings in Triple-A, 154 hits. I don’t think there is anything wrong with Syndergaard that getting out of the PCL/Las Vegas won’t cure. Velocity continues to increase, curve continues to improve, just needs to prove that minor health issues aren’t precursor to anything major. 2) Steven Matz, LHP, Grade B+: Age 23, 2.24 ERA with 131/35 K/BB in 141 innings between High-A and Double-A. Great story on Tommy John recovery, power lefty arm with good command, fastball well into the 90s now. Terrific complement to Syndergaard. 3) Dilson Herrera, 2B, Grade B+: Age 20. Hit .323/.379/.479 with 13 homers, 23 steals, 47/96 BB/K in 524 at-bats in High-A/Double-A. His reputation is growing but if anything he may still be under-estimated. 4) Brandon Nimmo, OF, Grade B/Borderline B+: Age 21, hit .322/.448/.458 in High-A but just .238/.339/.396 in Double-A. I love Nimmo’s on-base abilities and overall approach, but I am hesitant to go full-bore B+ or higher at this time due to serious platoon split problems. For now I have Herrera ahead, which is likely a minority view. That should be seen as praise for Herrera, not any disrespect towards Nimmo, who is one of my favorite prospects. 5) Kevin Plawecki, C, Grade B: Age 23, hit .309/.365/.460 between Double-A and Triple-A. Just a solid all-around prospect, not deadly against bsaerunners but otherwise very skilled on defense, not a big home run hitter but should maintain solid average and OBP with gap power. Great backup for Travis d’Arnaud, can start if necessary. He would also make attractive trade bait. 6) Rafael Montero, RHP, Grade B: Age 24. People seem a little down on him but I’m not really sure why: he’s pitched very well in the difficult environment of Las Vegas and the PCL (3.31 ERA in 169 innings, 158/59 K/BB, 154 hits), and while he doesn’t have blistering stuff, the complete package has always played up. He needs to adapt his command to the majors but he could be the Jake Odorizzi of 2015. I think there is some prospect fatigue with this one, everyone looking for shiny new toys and overlooking a guy who has always gotten the job done. 7) Michael Conforto, OF, Grade B: Age 21. Very advanced college hitter with above-average power and good strike zone judgment, should not need very long in the minors. Hit .331/.403/.448 in New York-Penn League. Athleticism may be underrated but his defense still needs polish, which is OK if he hits as expected. 8) Marcos Molina, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B. Age 19, Flavor of the Month after dominant turn in the New York-Penn League (1.77 ERA, 91/18 K/BB in 76 innings, 46 hits), impeccable statistically with good reports on mid-90s fastball and change-up, breaking stuff still needs some work and we need to see what kind of workload he can handle. With Syndergaard and Montero likely graduating to the majors in 2015, Molina could be top of the list next year. 9) Amed Rosario, SS, Grade B-/Borderline B. Age 19, hit .289/.337/.380 in NY-P. Scouting reports and defense are ahead of his offensive production at this point, hardly atypical for his age of course. High ceiling with both bat and glove, needs work with the strike zone and defensive reliability. Like Molina, could shoot to the top of the list next year. 10) Jhoan Urena, 3B, Grade B-: Age 20, switch-hitter from Dominican Republic hit .300/.356/.431 in the NY-P with 20 doubles. Long-term defense and future home run production are unanswered questions, but there is a lot to like here. Mets fans are aware of him but he is just now earning national attention. See more via the link including prospects 11-20, an overall assessment of the system as a whole, and (as time goes on) comments and discussion from the prospect nerds who frequent that site, comments which can range from insightful to downright silly.

Edgy MD Dec 16 2014 01:00 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Open Conforto in St. Lucie, you think?

smg58 Dec 16 2014 01:16 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

I think Montero's stock has suffered a bit because he didn't make a good first impression here -- which is ironic, because Thor didn't pitch well enough to make any first impression here. I'm still bullish on him. I'm not one for jumping guys past a level unless they were spectacular, and Conforto's .851 OPS in rookie ball says "maybe" more than "hell yes." Molina was spectacular, but he's at an age where I'd be careful unless he forces me to think otherwise.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Dec 16 2014 01:21 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Montero looked to me like a guy who was scared to death at first but also trying not to look that way, and the preoccupation intefered with his mojo. We might get a better idea of what he's all about when he chills a little.

Edgy MD Dec 16 2014 02:13 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

smg58 wrote: I think Montero's stock has suffered a bit because he didn't make a good first impression here -- which is ironic, because Thor didn't pitch well enough to make any first impression here. I'm still bullish on him. I'm not one for jumping guys past a level unless they were spectacular, and Conforto's .851 OPS in rookie ball says "maybe" more than "hell yes." Molina was spectacular, but he's at an age where I'd be careful unless he forces me to think otherwise. I don't really think of Brooklyn-to-St. Lucie as necessarily skipping. It's more of a half skip. Brooklyn doesn't seem higher than Savannah, so much as a short-season version of the same level of competition.

Frayed Knot Dec 16 2014 02:20 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Edgy MD wrote: Open Conforto in St. Lucie, you think? You would think that a top-drafted player from a major college program would be able to handle it. Not sure if blowing him past low-A Savannah even qualifies as 'skipping a level' as the org sometimes uses a start in Brooklyn as more of a brief showcase than anything. Montero: What we have to remember about Montero is that he went from the DSL to the majors in three years so some adjustment period is to be expected. He even looked as if he was starting to settle down very late in the season.

Benjamin Grimm Dec 16 2014 02:25 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

I expect Montero is likely to be traded. When someone asks for Syndergaard, Sandy will say no, but how about Montero? Some will say no thanks, but I think eventually someone will say okay.

Frayed Knot Dec 16 2014 02:30 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

The comments section got an extra thumbnail sketch for Matt Reynolds who was left off of a top-20 although (another reason I like Sickels) he warns folks not to pay too much attention to the exact order as the similar grades guy in the 10-20 guys are pretty much indistinguishable from each other. And that there are more C+ or better grades (he rates C+ as an above average prospect) than could fit into the top 20 is in itself a good sign. Anyway, on Reynolds: he is not really a .343 hitter (his 2014 avg) but he’s not really a .226 hitter, either (2013). In college he was projected to be a solid utility player who could hit .260-.270 with enough gap power and OBP to be helpful. Although he’s yo-yoed from season to season so far, the overall career line is exactly within those expectations. Defensively, he’s reliable in terms of avoiding errors and is no butcher at shortstop, but his range fits best at second base. Grade C+.

MFS62 Dec 17 2014 08:31 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

I think the Baseball America list is due out today, but haven't seen it yet. OE: Here it is: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2 ... prospects/ No new insight there. Later

Vic Sage Dec 17 2014 09:04 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

they include Cecchini over Uhrena; otherwise same top 10.

Frayed Knot Dec 17 2014 10:53 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Q & A session on that list here

Frayed Knot Dec 17 2014 01:32 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Some answers from that Q&A involving IF prospects: ** Gavin Cecchini doesn’t have a carrying tool, but the 20-year-old shortstop also has no glaring weakness. He put in the work last offseason to add strength and it paid off with more power production in 2014. Plus as the Mets note, Cecchini improved his offensive production at both Low-A Savnnah and High-A St. Lucie after an initial adjustment period, e.g. he logged a .355 OBP and 25/22 BB/SO ratio over 47 games from mid-July to the end of the FSL season. He doesn’t switch-hit or show plus speed, so he profiles better as a starter at shortstop or second base rather than a utility infielder. ** L.J. Mazzilli, a fourth-rounder in 2013, has improved his defense from poor to passable as he climbed from college ball in 2013 to High-A St. Lucie in 2014. He has hit at every stop, including the Arizona Fall League, so the Mets view him as an offensive second baseman in the making. He just missed this year’s [team] top 30, but he’s a prospect. ** I see Dilson Herrera as a starting second baseman on a good team. Maybe he’s just shy of all-star level, but I would expect a high AVG and plenty of gap power. He ranks ahead of C Kevin Plawecki on our list because he fits his positional profile a bit better. In other words, Herrera’s strengths (hit, field, power) are exactly what big league teams seek from regular second basemen. also, projects "five to seven" from the NYM list to crack the overall Top-100 and sees the system over "definitely in the top-10" and "could make a case for" them being top five.

Edgy MD Dec 17 2014 01:38 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

I see Dilson Herrera as a starting second baseman on a good team. I'm struggling over whether or not to infer the words "this season" in this statement. The question seemed to be talking about the present status.

Benjamin Grimm Dec 17 2014 01:58 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

I think assuming "this season" is probably a stretch. My guess for Dilson is that they'll keep in in Las Vegas until May (the usual ploy to delay arbitration and free agency) especially since, with Murphy likely to at least start the season as a Met, they won't need to rush him. Where he's at in July or August is anyone's guess. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Dilson start 2016 as the Mets regular second baseman.

Ceetar Dec 17 2014 02:00 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Given that he couldn't hit in his limited showing last year, and hasn't played at AAA at all, yeah, this season is a stretch.

Vic Sage Dec 17 2014 02:14 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15 Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 17 2014 02:15 PM

All-Prospect lineup: Nimmo CF Rosario SS Herrera 2b Conforto LF plawecki c Uhrena 3b Beccera RF D.Smith 1b

Edgy MD Dec 17 2014 02:15 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Ceetar wrote: Given that he couldn't hit in his limited showing last year, and hasn't played at AAA at all, yeah, this season is a stretch. Outhit Flores. Outhit Campbell. Outhit Brown. Outhit den Dekker. Heck, going by his rates, he outhit a bunch of starters --- Lagares, Young, Tejada, and Wright (WRIGHT!) --- so I wouldn't conclude at all that he couldn't hit. He hit the ball hard. A .710 from a 20-year-old is sweet.

Ceetar Dec 17 2014 02:30 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Edgy MD wrote: Ceetar wrote: Given that he couldn't hit in his limited showing last year, and hasn't played at AAA at all, yeah, this season is a stretch. Outhit Flores. Outhit Campbell. Outhit Brown. Outhit den Dekker. Heck, going by his rates, he outhit a bunch of starters --- Lagares, Young, Tejada, and Wright (WRIGHT!) --- so I wouldn't conclude at all that he couldn't hit. He hit the ball hard. A .710 from a 20-year-old is sweet. Well, small sample and all. and it was .625 before he had 1 good game at the end and then didn't play again. (Did he get hurt? I'm blanking.) He did hit the ball hard. Nice solid contact when he connected, which is what boosted the SLG. But he didn't hit it enough. It wasn't an overall good performance. Not to say I wasn't very encouraged by what I saw though. Solid contact, and the ability to draw walks. Didn't embarrass himself as a 20 year old. Very encouraging. Definitely not ready as I see it. Wouldn't be surprised if he only needs another 20-30 games though, and certainly if he was a SS I'd almost say just give them to him at the Major League level.

Edgy MD Dec 17 2014 02:40 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Ceetar wrote: Well, small sample and all. Interesting that it's a meaningful sample when you conclude that he didn't hit, but it's too small when that is demonstrated to be untrue. and it was .625 before he had 1 good game at the end and then didn't play again. The bottom line is the bottom line. (Did he get hurt? I'm blanking.) Yes. Hurt his quad. He did hit the ball hard. Nice solid contact when he connected, which is what boosted the SLG. You say the opposite above. But he didn't hit it enough. It wasn't an overall good performance. Extrapolated for 162 games, that's 27 homers and 99 RBI. What does enough look like? Not to say I wasn't very encouraged by what I saw though. Solid contact, and the ability to draw walks. Didn't embarrass himself as a 20 year old. Again, you say above that he didn't hit at all. Very encouraging. Definitely not ready as I see it. Definitely? You didn't even recall that he got hurt? How can anybody be definite? Wouldn't be surprised if he only needs another 20-30 games though... How do you get from definitely not ready to possibly needing only 20-30 games? I don't know what he is. I just disagree that he didn't hit at all. He did, certainly.

Ceetar Dec 17 2014 02:52 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

you're just arguing to argue. The default state is 'not good enough for the Major Leagues' because it's hard. I was convinced, based on what I saw, that he wasn't ready. He didn't hit enough. Maybe all he needed was 20-30 more games of reps. That he hit at all is obvious, yes, he had 13 hits. But he hit .220. Yes, 27 HR from a MI would be very nice and maybe even enough to sorta excuse a .303 OBP, but the correlation of a guys first 66 PA to an overall season is pretty low. But that stat line, his overall progression in development (no AAA) and the current state of the team overall, I'm comfortable saying he didn't hit enough in his 66 trips to the plate for me to think he's ready to be a regular player on the 2015 Mets.

Edgy MD Dec 17 2014 03:06 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Ceetar wrote: you're just arguing to argue. I like to think I'm advocating for facts.

Frayed Knot Dec 17 2014 03:07 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Edgy MD wrote: I see Dilson Herrera as a starting second baseman on a good team. I'm struggling over whether or not to infer the words "this season" in this statement. The question seemed to be talking about the present status. Yeah, fans tend to think more short term whereas the BA staff is geared towards taking the longer view especially since whether or not he's in the starting lineup depends on so many other factors. My guess for Dilson is that they'll keep in in Las Vegas until May (the usual ploy to delay arbitration and free agency) especially since, with Murphy likely to at least start the season as a Met, they won't need to rush him. Keep in mind that he already has 31 days of ML service time under his belt so, strictly from a FA/arb clock POV, the math changes on him vs someone like say Syndergaard who has yet to play. I think he can use some AAA time myself - on account of the lack of upper-minors ABs (<300 above A-ball), the low BA, and the nearly 30% K-rate during his short stint. And mainly there's the incumbent(s). I suspect that come April we'll either have Muffy still on the team OR we'll a new SS which allows Flores to play 2B. Either way the path is, at least temporarily, blocked.

Centerfield Dec 18 2014 07:36 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Edgy MD wrote: I see Dilson Herrera as a starting second baseman on a good team. I'm struggling over whether or not to infer the words "this season" in this statement. The question seemed to be talking about the present status. He said "good team". He's obviously not talking about this season, unless, wait...OMG HERRERA'S GOING TO BE TRADED.

Centerfield Dec 18 2014 07:45 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Edgy MD wrote: you're just arguing to argue. I like to think I'm advocating for facts. You'd like to think so. What you are actually doing is wasting your time. You're arguing with someone who argues simultaneously that: *He did not hit at all during the time that he was here. *He hit the ball hard. Nice contact. *It still was not good enough. *Well, maybe. I guess if you project those numbers over a full season, he hit good enough. But how can you draw conclusions on such a small sample size? *He is definitely not ready for the majors. *But he may only need 20-30 more games in the minors.

Vic Sage Dec 18 2014 08:06 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

forget it, Edge... it's Chinatown.

Ceetar Dec 18 2014 08:09 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Centerfield wrote: you're just arguing to argue. I like to think I'm advocating for facts. You'd like to think so. What you are actually doing is wasting your time. You're arguing with someone who argues simultaneously that: *He did not hit at all during the time that he was here. *He hit the ball hard. Nice contact. *It still was not good enough. *Well, maybe. I guess if you project those numbers over a full season, he hit good enough. But how can you draw conclusions on such a small sample size? *He is definitely not ready for the majors. *But he may only need 20-30 more games in the minors. I forgot the facts only matter when they're your facts. when they're opinions formed on actual statistics (And Frayed Knot said similar things in his appraisal too, so it's not like I'm an oddball here) they're bogus.

Edgy MD Dec 18 2014 08:16 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Ceetar wrote: when they're opinions formed on actual statistics (And Frayed Knot said similar things in his appraisal too, so it's not like I'm an oddball here) they're bogus. But they're not formed on actual statistics. And that's my only point, Johnny Sarcastico. I wouldn't throw him in the deep end either. He's 20, and the team has a qualified second baseman. But it's just not true to assert that he couldn't hit in his limited showing. It's perfectly OK to say "Oh, shit, I was off there. I still wouldn't hand him a job, considering his age and experience, but he acquitted himself perfectly fine in his big league opportunity, brief as it was." Because that's pretty much what you're saying, minus the "Oh shit" part.

Vic Sage Dec 18 2014 08:19 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

if we just disagreed with your opinions, this would be a worthwhile discussion to have. But what people are trying to point out to you is that you contradict your own "facts" and opinions from one post to the next, so much so that it becomes an infuriating waste of time for all concerned. And now you've devolved into wound-licking victimization, which is the big neon indicator that further debate is fruitless. I'd say "enough already", but you'd just reply to this with another link in your illogical ceetardian chain of thought. So i'm done playing.

Ceetar Dec 18 2014 08:20 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Edgy MD wrote: Ceetar wrote: when they're opinions formed on actual statistics (And Frayed Knot said similar things in his appraisal too, so it's not like I'm an oddball here) they're bogus. But they're not formed on actual statistics. And that's my only point, Johnny Sarcastico. I wouldn't throw him in the deep end either. He's 20, and the team has a qualified second baseman. But it's just not true to assert that he couldn't hit in his limited showing. It's perfectly OK to say "Oh, shit, I was off there. I still wouldn't hand him a job, considering his age and experience, but he acquitted himself perfectly fine in his big league opportunity, brief as it was." Because that's pretty much what you're saying, minus the "Oh shit" part. My comment was directed at CF anyway, but you should know by now my default state is Sarcastico. What I'm saying is that I wouldn't give him a job, based on the raw numbers I saw from him last year, and based on the development track he's been on. What I'm also saying that from a purely amateurish scouting standpoint, I liked what I saw from him hit-tool-wise. Liking how he physically struck or 'hit' the ball is different than thinking he turned AB into the statistical measurement 'hits' at a good enough rate to be ready to be a major league 2Bman.

Ceetar Dec 18 2014 08:21 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Vic Sage wrote: if we just disagreed with your opinions, this would be a worthwhile discussion to have. But what people are trying to point out to you is that you contradict your own "facts" and opinions from one post to the next, so much so that it becomes an infuriating waste of time for all concerned. And now you've devolved into wound-licking victimization, which is the big neon indicator that further debate is fruitless. I'd say "enough already", but you'd just reply to this with another link in your illogical ceetardian chain of thought. So i'm done playing. clearly you're not. And in fact, I don't contradict myself. I can't help it if you don't get the nuance.

Edgy MD Dec 18 2014 08:26 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

I'm still missing the "Oh shit" part. There's no nuance between "He couldn't hit" and "He did hit." Please don't try and suggest the inability to reconcile the irreconcilable is on other people. We're not dumb here. You didn't write, "the statistical measurement 'hits' at a good enough rate to be ready to be a major league 2Bman." You wrote, "Given that he couldn't hit... ." It's really easy to say, "Yeah, I guess I overstated that." I more or less agree with you beyond that.

Ceetar Dec 18 2014 08:43 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Edgy MD wrote: I'm still missing the "Oh shit" part. There's no nuance between "He couldn't hit" and "He did hit." Please don't try and suggest the inability to reconcile the irreconcilable is on other people. We're not dumb here. You didn't write, "the statistical measurement 'hits' at a good enough rate to be ready to be a major league 2Bman." You wrote, "Given that he couldn't hit... ." It's really easy to say, "Yeah, I guess I overstated that." I more or less agree with you beyond that. so you're arguing semantics? fine. Oh Shit. I assumed that when I said he couldn't hit it was obvious I meant the statistics. I almost always mean the statistics. hit means 'ball hits grass'. 'contact' means his swing. I never meant to infer Rey Ordonezesque batting ability.

Edgy MD Dec 18 2014 08:47 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

No, I'm not arguing semantics. Man, you're off the rails.

Ceetar Dec 18 2014 08:51 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Edgy MD wrote: No, I'm not arguing semantics. Man, you're off the rails. fuck it, just trade the guy.

Benjamin Grimm Dec 18 2014 09:05 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

I can just see the headline now: METS DUMP PROSPECT DUE TO FORUM SNIT FIT

Vic Sage Mar 17 2015 08:11 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

SIckels has put 7 mets in his top 100: [indent]"Like most of the major outlets, Sickels is very bullish on the Amazins' system, ranking seven Mets prospects in his top 100 and eight in his top 175. Right-handed pitcher Noah Syndergaard once again leads the pack at 13, followed by left-handed pitcher Steven Matz at 35. Second baseman Dilson Herrera is the first Mets position prospect to make the list, at 41, followed by outfielder Michael Conforto at 78, right-handed pitcher Rafael Montero at 82, outfielder Brandon Nimmo at 83, catcher Kevin Plawecki at 92..."[/indent] and he notes 3 others: [indent]"... and right-handed pitcher Marcos Molina at 152. As if going 175 deep was not enough, Sickels's list also features an extensive section of honorable mentions, which includes Mets infielders Amed Rosario and Jhoan Urena."[/indent]

Frayed Knot Mar 18 2015 11:56 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

The inclusion of Sickels' list gives a five list* average of: 1 - Kris Bryant - 3B, Cubs 2 - Byron Buxton - OF, Twins 3 - Carlos Correa - SS, Astros 4 - Addison Russell - SS, Cubs 5 - Lucas Giolito - RHP, Nationals 6 - Corey Seager - SS, Dodgers 7 - Francisco Lindor - SS, Indians 8 - Julio Urias - LHP, Dodgers 9 - Noah Syndergaard 10 - Joey Gallo - 3B, Rangers 45 - Steven Matz 64 - Dilson Herrera 77 - Michael Conforto 79 - Brandon Nimmo 80 - Kevin Plawecki * Sickels, BA, BP, MLB (Jonathan Mayo), ESPN (Keith Law)

Edgy MD Mar 18 2015 12:19 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Francisco Lindor is interesting. He's kept rising up the prospect charts for four years, despite not having one standout season or flashing one standout tool. And then you realize "Oh, he's, like, kinda good at everything. And he's very good that way." I guess he's like d'Arnaud. Or even Wright. And he's been young for his league all the way through. Checking his profile now, he's been between four and seven years younger than the mean of his league all the way up. Playing with the big kids, just being average has been outstanding.

batmagadanleadoff Mar 18 2015 01:20 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Mets Dominate List. Where have I read that before? [fimg=644]https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7645/16670490559_0025d7b589_o.jpg[/fimg]

Nymr83 Mar 18 2015 01:43 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Edgy MD wrote: Francisco Lindor is interesting. He's kept rising up the prospect charts for four years, despite not having one standout season or flashing one standout tool. And then you realize "Oh, he's, like, kinda good at everything. And he's very good that way." I guess he's like d'Arnaud. Or even Wright. And he's been young for his league all the way through. Checking his profile now, he's been between four and seven years younger than the mean of his league all the way up. Playing with the big kids, just being average has been outstanding. SEVEN years younger? i guess that was AAA as a result of the league average being skewed by veterans who arent "prospects"? thats just damn impressive

Edgy MD Mar 18 2015 01:45 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Yeah, that's playing in AAA at 20, but like Reyes (or Dilson Herrera), he's been typically among the youngest two or three guys in his league. But even a little moreso.

Frayed Knot Mar 18 2015 02:52 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

His time in AAA skewed those numbers a bit, but he's still been between 3.5 and 5.5 years young for his league since breaking into pro ball with the NYP League as a 17 y/o in 2011. And that's all helped him be a top-50 prospect each year since pre-2012. The word on Lindor is that he's long had ML-ready defense plus a promising enough (esp given the age) amount of offense to believe that, even if the hitting never progressed as hoped, his defense alone was would be enough make him a regular ML SS. I also didn't realize he was a draft pick (same year as Nimmo - 5 picks earlier though nearly 8 months younger). I guess I just assumed he was an int'l player but rather is a Puerto Rican who came through Florida. That leaves only Urias, a Mexican, out of that top 10 who is an Int'l FA and he already has 43 pro starts under his belt even though he won't turn 19 until August.

Frayed Knot Mar 18 2015 04:58 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

A bit of a fluff is developing around #1 prospect (acc to this "consensus") Kris Bryant with his agent, Scott Boras not surprisingly, calling out the Cubs and MLB in general for what he assumes will be the Cubs' strategy of keeping Bryant in the minors for at least the first 12 days of the season so as to delay his FA eligibility for an extra year (a topic we also talked about in the Zack Wheeler thread). Bryant leads all MLB thus far with 6 ST HRs and is hitting .435 while doing it (10/23). For their part, the Cubs are claiming that Theo Epstein's timetable for Bryant is in no way dictated but ownership nor do I believe they've specifically stated that they're not going to bring him up for opening day.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 24 2015 12:42 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Some bonerific reviews of the young guys recently in Baseball Prospectus, though sounds like Dom Smith, his crappy attitude and his fat ass are on a one-way train to Bustville. Spring Training Notebook: Grapefruit League March 19, 2015 by Jeff Moore Throughout March, the BP Prospect Team is invading both Arizona and Florida to get some fresh looks at players as they prepare for their 2015 assignments. Between now and the start of the minor league season, they’ll be providing updates (and videos) on the prospects you know and love—and quite a few that you may not. Amed Rosario, SS, Mets Known for his glove, and rightly so, Rosario remains as smooth as ever in the field and more than capable of remaining at shortstop for the duration of his career. His long strides lead to plus range, and a quick easy release and strong arm should make him a plus defender at a premium position. There is plenty of time for his bat to catch up to his glove, given that he’s barely dipped a toe into the full-season waters, but it’s going to take major strides in overhauling his swing. Its current iteration involves far too much movement and a significant weight shift that will give him issues against the better breaking balls he has yet to see. Lastly, at just 19, it’s unsurprising that he’ll need to add weight to ever drive the baseball with any authority, but his frame isn’t one that’s built to support a significant weight gain. He can get stronger, but he’s likely to always be thin. Jhoan Urena, 3B, Mets Soon to be the jewel of the Mets system, this was my third look at Urena and he gets more impressive with each rendition. Still just 20 and slated for his first taste of full-season ball this year, Urena was clearly the best player on any of the four backfields early in spring training, with most top major-league ready prospects still in major-league camp. Our write-up in the Mets top 10 list said “The knock on Urena is a body that doesn’t really look the part and offers some concerns on how it is going to progress into his mid-20s,” but my first look in 2015 already negates that concern. Gone is last year’s baby fat, replaced by muscle and good weight. Urena has gone from soft to svelte and even more raw power has followed, as he put on a show in batting practice, hitting a far-off shed and frightening maintenance workers. He uses a pronounced leg-kick from both sides of the plate, and while his swing is slightly longer from the left side it also features more natural uppercut. He’s built to drive the baseball and attacks it as such. His body change should increases his chances at staying at third base, and while he might never be an above-average defender or have plus range, he has the hands and arm to remain there. Luis Guillorme, SS, Mets There’s a good chance Guillorme never hits enough to play on a regular basis, but putting plus grades on his glove is about as easy as scouting gets. He’s the epitome of smooth, and ideal baseball actions and a plus arm that can play anywhere in the infield. There’s no power in his swing and not much projection left in his 20-year-old frame, but the glove/arm combo is good enough to carve out a role. Michael Conforto, OF, Mets Solid is the best way to describe Conforto, in almost every aspect. A solid build and solid collection of tools project him to be a solid major leaguer. There’s not a lot of flash in his game, nor is their a ton of room for growth, but the close-to-finished product has a high floor and a slew of usable, average tools that make for a future everyday player. His frame isn’t long, which, coupled with a two-hand finish, keeps his swing compact and direct to the ball. There is some natural uppercut lift in the swing that should generate some carry and lead to average over-the-fence power. He won’t wow you with tools, and most of his value is riding on his bat, but he should provide enough to carry him to a nice, long career. Dominic Smith, 1B, Mets Batting practice is Smith’s time to shine, as it allows him to show off his plus raw power that has been otherwise stymied during game action since turning pro. The difference is in the approach. In practice, Smith looks to drive the ball. In games, he does not. A passive approach leads to passive swings instead of attacking the baseball. The good news is that the bat speed is still present. The bad news is that he shows little interest in making adjustments, or much else that’s taking place on the field around him. His body is already worse than it was this time last year, a major concern for a 19-year-old already limited to first base, but his body language may be even worse. Smith had his struggles last year in Savannah, admittedly an incredibly tough place for power hitters, but the Florida State League won’t be much easier this season, so he’ll need to start producing regardless of hitting environment. Additional Notes You know Wuilmer Becerra (Mets) as the last guy from the R.A. Dickey trade that you hadn’t heard of, but now he’s 20 and will be heading to full season ball with still raw abilities but has tremendous raw power

Edgy MD Mar 24 2015 12:53 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Urena has gone from soft to svelte and even more raw power has followed, as he put on a show in batting practice, hitting a far-off shed and frightening maintenance workers. How cinematic! I may print this quote out a few dozen times and paper my cube with it. Urena didn't make mlb.com's top-ten-by-position lists, making third base the first position in which the Mets got shut out. I'm hoping this made him angry.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 24 2015 01:33 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

I saw Urena at Brooklyn last year and was impressed. He's a fireplug kind of build, switch hitter, and really tagged one for a double.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 24 2015 06:10 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

A svelte fireplug, though, right? The relentless, hyperfocused talk about bodies never ceases to creep me out.

Edgy MD Mar 31 2015 06:15 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Bryant farmed out and irate. Union wants to litigate.

Vic Sage Apr 01 2015 09:27 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Bryant farmed out and irate. Union wants to litigate. yeah i heard about that. It's complete bullshit. No player or union can tell a team when they should or should not promote a player to a higher league, whatever their reason. Unless there is something in the CBA that requires such decisions be based on their best baseball judgment, not economic considerations. But I doubt the CBA does, though, because how could you possible prove intent? And how can you say the economic and baseball issues are unrelated... doesn't it increase a team's chance of winning over the long run if they're able to keep their best players for longer, before they become so expensive that they either lose them or keep them but are circumscribed in other moves they can make to improve the team? I would think the union would have to prove that the extra money a team saves if a star player reaches arbitration / FA 1 year later would not have otherwise be spent to improve the team's ability to win, but would instead go into the owner's pocket (as if that were a violation of the CBA). I am so rarely on the owner's side of any issue, but this is one i think is purely agent-driven. The union had the reserve clause struck down, and then won the right to arbitrate early in their careers. They have rightly gained the freedom and leverage they sought. But they don't also get to dictate to a GM who stays on the 25-man roster, or how many starts, or save opportunities, or ABs, a manager gives to a particular player, unless the union gets that right through a new CBA.... and good luck to them with THAT.

Frayed Knot Apr 01 2015 10:03 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

... Unless there is something in the CBA that requires such decisions be based on their best baseball judgment, not economic considerations. But I doubt the CBA does, though, because how could you possible prove intent? Actually I think there IS some language in the CBA about how demotions have to be done for baseball reasons, or at least how they CAN'T be done strictly for manipulation of service time which is certainly what this smells like. But of course you then run into the second part of your statement about how one goes about proving it. One thing that would add to the union's position in any theoretical litigation would be if Bryant is called up exactly on the day that would delay his FA time for an extra year so I'm betting we don't see that.

Edgy MD Apr 01 2015 10:49 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

The thing is that exact day is something akin to guesswork.

Ceetar Apr 01 2015 11:05 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Edgy MD wrote: The thing is that exact day is something akin to guesswork. you're thinking of the Super 2 nitration date. The service time calendar is mapped out pretty precisely.

Edgy MD Apr 01 2015 11:47 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

That's true. The super 2 concern is first but hardly foremost, especially when it comes to hitters.

Ceetar Apr 01 2015 12:56 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

how did I change arbitration into nitration? is it because I was half-writing a BeerGraphs post about the Old Howling Bastard I had on nitro last weekend?

Frayed Knot Apr 01 2015 01:11 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Ceetar wrote: how did I change arbitration into nitration? is it because I was half-writing a BeerGraphs post about the Old Howling Bastard I had on nitro last weekend? Or maybe your spellcheck program was drinking. The arbitration cut off is the one that's speculative (usually around 1/3 of the season) but it's also less important. If Bryant turns out to be as good as everyone hopes then what he's going to be paid in year 3 of his career is relatively small potatoes in the grand scheme of things, particularly when compared to the question of being a FA or not in year 7. Plus if he's that good year 3 will probably be over-ridden by a multi-year deal which will cover those carb-years anyway. As far as how things work for FA purposes: the ML season, for accounting purposes, is 182 days long, but players who are on the roster for at least 170 of them get credit for one full year which is where the 12 days thing kicks in. And once a player misses those 12 days there's no way to make them up; no way to earn 'extra credit' so to speak for being active in all 182 days in subsequent years.

Frayed Knot Apr 01 2015 07:51 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Back to prospect rankings for a minute: John Sickels ranks the Mets system as 6th best in MLB 6) New York Mets: There isn’t quite as much star potential here [as compared to the upper five] but there is a LOT of solid talent especially on the pitching side (Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz). Catcher Kevin Plawecki, outfielder Brandon Nimmo, second baseman Dilson Herrera, and 2014 first-rounder Michael Conforto all project as regulars. There are several potential fourth starters and relief options. This is clearly a system on the upswing. Last year: 12th http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/4/1 ... gs-sickels

Frayed Knot Apr 17 2015 06:04 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Frayed Knot wrote: ... Unless there is something in the CBA that requires such decisions be based on their best baseball judgment, not economic considerations. But I doubt the CBA does, though, because how could you possible prove intent? Actually I think there IS some language in the CBA about how demotions have to be done for baseball reasons, or at least how they CAN'T be done strictly for manipulation of service time which is certainly what this smells like. But of course you then run into the second part of your statement about how one goes about proving it. One thing that would add to the union's position in any theoretical litigation would be if Bryant is called up exactly on the day that would delay his FA time for an extra year so I'm betting we don't see that. Or maybe we do. Bryant called up to the big club, will make ML debut this afternoon at Wrigley.

MFS62 Apr 17 2015 07:20 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Forget about Bryant! Was told the Mets are bringing up Muno, but no confirmation/ link yet. edit - here's a link; http://www.amazinavenue.com/2015/4/17/8 ... s-promoted Later

Edgy MD Apr 17 2015 07:38 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

You were told? You have an inside source in Mets management?

MFS62 Apr 17 2015 07:58 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Several Mets fans in the office. The Rubin tweet was last night. So ... Later

Frayed Knot Apr 17 2015 03:33 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Frayed Knot wrote: Kris Bryant called up to the big club, will make ML debut this afternoon at Wrigley. Joe Madden had him batting cleanup in his debut but: 4 ABs, 0/4, 5 LOBs, 3 Ks Now we know why he spells his name with a K instead of the standard spelling.

d'Kong76 Apr 17 2015 03:59 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

http://screengrabber.deadspin.com/cubs- ... 1698544054

Edgy MD Apr 20 2015 12:58 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

1) Noah Syndergaard Not showing it yet, with a 4.70 ERA through two starts. More concerning is the six walks and seven strikeouts. 2) Steven Matz Much more compelling is his 2.93 ERA through 15 1/3 innings over three starts (1-1 record). But the wildness is still there, striking out 14, but walking 11. I think too much time in Vegas makes good men a little plate-shy. 3) Dilson Herrera Getting his hitting done, with a .333 / .370 / .405 // .774 line in Vegas. Definitely not ready as I see it. 4) Brandon Nimmo With a .214 / .306 / .381 // .687 start in Bingo, it's not a quick job out of the gate, but it definitely shows him as the three-true-outcome species that he is. Has got two homers in his first 50 appearances, so there's that. 5) Kevin Plawecki His .216 / .237 / .324 // .561 warms few hearts, but as you might have read, that includes something like an 0-20 start followed by an 8-17 run since then. 6) Rafael Montero Spouted a 4.15 ERA over four games as a big league reliever. Coming in for high leverage spots with men on base is probably not a good opportunity to show his trademark control, and it's again been spotty (including walking in a run with the bags juiced). Will be interesting to see if he bounces back as a starter as he heads back to Vegas to re-train for a starting opportunity. 7) Michael Conforto Making St. Luciens happy by putting up MVP numbers in the Florida State League: .366 / .460 / .707 // 1.167, featuring four homers and 13 RBI. 8) Marcos Molina Good start in St. Lucie, with a 3.27 ERA through his first two starts, 12 strikeouts and four walks through 11 innings. Is a rare thing as a 20-year-old starting pitcher in full-season ball. 9) Amed Rosario This one is a 19-year-old in St. Lucie, starting at shortstop and hitting .250 / .302 / .325 // .627. 10) Jhoan Urena Slowing out of the gate with a .238 / .273 / .381 // .654 for the SL Mets.

Centerfield Apr 21 2015 08:09 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

I have really high hopes for Conforto and Herrera. I am hoping that d'Arnaud, Duda, Conforto and Herrera will be the core of the best run in Mets history. Flores and Lagares too. Oh, and they have a little bit of pitching to go with it.

Frayed Knot Apr 21 2015 10:34 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Edgy MD wrote: 4) Brandon Nimmo With a .214 / .306 / .381 // .687 start in Bingo, it's not a quick job out of the gate, but it definitely shows him as the three-true-outcome species that he is. Has got two homers in his first 50 appearances, so there's that. 1) he must have had some good games since you took those stats cuz he's now up to .261/.340/.435 Early season stats will do that. 2) 'Three True Outcomes' has always implied to me a high pct of ABs that end in Ks, BBs, or HRs (often with a low BA). But, except for the ultra-high walk-rates, I don't see that in Nimmo. His Ks were high in 2013 (27%) his first year in full season ball, but fell to under 19% in 2014 even as he rose through two levels. And his HRs so far have peaked at just 10 with a .278 BA, hardly the stereotyped hit or miss swinger.

Edgy MD Apr 21 2015 10:54 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Your point is well taken. Only meant to note that his low batting average to that point had been somewhat mollified by walks and extra-base hits, but I overstated it.

Frayed Knot Apr 24 2015 10:22 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

Dilson Herrera lands in the #9 spot on BA's Prospect Watch for the week with a 15 for 34 week including 5 XBHs 9. Dilson Herrera, 2b, Mets Dilson HerreraTeam: Triple-A Las Vegas (Pacific Coast) Age: 21 Why He’s Here: .441/.472/.647 (15-for-34), 7 R, 4 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBIs, 2 BB, 2 K, 2-for-4 SB The Scoop: Everything is going right for the Mets right now. They have the best record in baseball and a franchise-best 11-game winning streak. And they have one of the most talented teams in Triple-A, which has provided the depth needed to survive injuries to Travis D’Arnaud, David Wright and Bobby Parnell. But the Mets’ success might slow down Herrera’s return to the big leagues. If the Mets had struggled, second baseman Daniel Murphy would likely be a trade target. But now it’s hard to see that happening, which means Herrera will continue teaming with Matt Reynolds for one of the best middle infield combos in the upper minors. In 14 games this year, Herrera has nine multi-hit games.

MFS62 Apr 25 2015 07:11 AM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

From last night's Las Vegas game, a promising peek into the future: Reynolds 2/4 HR 3RBI BB K Herrera 2/6 2B 2RBI Matz 7IP 2H 0ER 1BB 8K (had no hitter broken up in 7th, also had 2 hits) Leathersich 1IP 0H 0ER 0BB 2K Later

Elster88 Apr 28 2015 11:54 PM Re: Prospect season - 2014-15

LAS VEGAS 8, ALBUQUERQUE 0 LAS VEGAS 3, ALBUQUERQUE 2: After getting skipped Friday because of food poisoning, Noah Syndergaard pitched strongly in his return to the rotation in Game 1 of a doubleheader. Syndergaard tossed a seven-inning complete game, blanking Albuquerque while surrendering only two hits. He issued no walks and struck out nine. Syndergaard threw 83 pitches (62 strikes). Matt Reynolds went 3-for-4 with two doubles, three RBIs and three runs scored. Johnny Monell also drove in three runs. In Game 2, Alex Castellanos broke a 2-all tie with a sixth-inning homer. Box 1, Box 2