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On Benson trade:
]Typical of the Orioles in the Camden Yards era, they made one good and one bad decision last week.
To the good, they added right-hander Kris Benson from the Mets in exchange for reliever Jorge Julio and C+ prospect John Maine. Benson, who gets more attention for his narcissistic better half than for his pitching, immediately becomes the most accomplished member of the O's rotation. This is in spite of being used in the same sentence with "underachieving" and "disappointment" more often than the fifth season of "Alias."
Just 16 months ago, Benson kicked off the sellers' market in pitching by signing a three-year, $22-million deal with the Mets. That contract, signed by a career 4.28 ERA pitcher with just two 200-inning seasons, set in motion a whole winter of expensive free-agent busts.
A year later, with the Season of Ortiz followed by the Era of Burnett, getting Benson at a bit more than $7 million a year for two years looks like a bargain. Paul Byrd, your basic league-average starter with some durability issues, signed with the Indians for just that. Benson posted a 4.13 ERA for the Mets in 28 starts last year, missing time to a pectoral strain in April and shoulder soreness in July, neither of which projects as a problem in '06. For a rotation that has upside players in Daniel Cabrera and Erik Bedard--but the variance that goes with those young arms--a safe bet for 190 league-average innings is more than worth two pitchers who won't likely combine for an ERA below 5.00 next year. |
On Cam/Nady:
]November 18: Acquired OF Mike Cameron from the New York Mets in exchange for INF/OF Xavier Nady.
Quite the coup for San Diego. Cameron is due $6,000,000 in 2006 and has a $7,000,000 option in 2007 with a $500,000 buyout. He offers the Padres an above-average on-base percentage in the top half of the lineup, some potent pop (average of 24.5 home runs/year from 2001-2004), and plus defense in a park that desperately needs good outfield defense.
In various major league stints the last three years Nady was mostly unable to put up the production that was expected of him. He has consistently shown an inability to hit for a decent batting average, and without an exceptional walk rate this leaves him with a below average OBP. He flashed a .511 slugging rate in the first half of 2005 (for an isolated slugging rate of .247) but in the second half he stumbled mightily (.257/.313/.351) to finish the season with an unimpressive line of .261/.321/.439. That just doesn't cut it for someone who is such a spotty defender at every position but first.
Maybe the Mets think Nady will go back to hitting like he did the first half of 2005, but this is more likely a salary dump for them. It seems unrealistic to expect Nady to take a big leap forward as a 27 year old with over 800 major league plate appearances.
There are two ways this deal doesn't work out for San Diego. First, if Cameron suffers from lingering injuries related to his collision last season with Carlos Beltran, he's unlikely to be the the sort of player who is worth $6,000,000. Second, it's not at all clear how Cameron's primary offensive weapon--the home run--will translate to Petco Park. The Associated Press' report on the trade implied that the Cameron will have an easier time hitting dingers in Petco than others because he's a right handed batter. But for the last two years the park factor for HRs in Petco is substantially lower for righties than it is for lefties (59 vs 78). Cameron has played in some extreme pitcher's parks, but nothing like this. Right handed hitters hit almost twice as many homers away from Petco as they did in the park.
Question: With Cameron in CF, Brian Giles in RF, and Dave Roberts in LF, is this now the best outfield defense in baseball? |
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