Forum Home

Master Index of Archived Threads


Glavine 2006 - Shorty Hardball Times Analysis

Rotblatt
Feb 02 2006 07:26 AM

I think most of us already knew where Glavine's second-half came from, but it's kind of nifty to see in graph form.

In short, HT likes Glavine's prospects of being above average next year.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/daily-graphing-tom-glavine/

old original jb
Feb 02 2006 10:04 AM
Using my Time Machine

I used my special time machine to travel into the future and found something quite different; while the trends in pitch usage would predict an improved first half this year, things turn out differently in reality, in some surprising ways.

As it happens, starting in March, Tom Glavine joins this spaceship cult and is visited by the Mahgram of the Mother ship who instructs him to always throw sliders down the middle. No one can say why, but he is told, curtly by his "Celestial Counselor" that "it is not wise to dispute with the Mahgram" and so he complies. After two blowout losses in April, Willie bumps him into the bullpen, sending one of five excess right handed side armed relievers to Norfolk and bringing up in his stead none other than Syd Finch!

Turns out he really did exist, and that furthermore, he has been coaching in the Mets system all along. Billed as the answer to Satchel Paige and Julio Franco, Syd pitches acceptably for about a month, then mysteriously dissapears, leaving behind a note that he has decided to "hike to Fitchberg". He is found eventually living in a pup tent concealed somewhere near Walden Pond, living off of roots and wild berries. "Not interested in baseball" he tells reporters, and that is that.

Meanwhile, heavy litigation errupts around the Kris Benson trade with the absolutely unprecedented result that it is REVERSED and the Bensons in all their glory come back to New York. Kris takes Syd's place in the rotation as a serviceable but mediocre right hander. Anna, having had an epiphany, gets dermabrasion on her "porn star" tatoos, starts wearing button down, collared shirts, buttoned up, and joins the Society of Friends, stating she has chosen to focus on quiet reflection.

By the way, David Wright has a stellar season, Reyes raises his OBP but only by 12 points as of August and Matsui learns to dive and suffers a nasty scrape on his elbow. After giving a news conference about the scrape he has suffered for his team, his countrymen are so moved that he is elected to the lower house of the Japanese Diet and leaves to take his position there. In addition, he becomes a regular tasting panelist on a revival of the Iron Chef series, filling in at various times for photographer Tenmei Kanuo, lower house member Shinichiro Kurimoto and the artist "Korn".

The Mets pencil in some player from stolen from some other team's minor league system and quickly pushed up through the system. He hits a home run every third at bat for two weeks and then never makes contact again. After two months he is traded for a right handed submarine throwing relief pitcher and there is a great outcry.

Pedro's toe heals nicely in his new shoe, resulting in another fine season and a big endorsement contract for the new Nike orthotics devision. In the end, Pedro is hawking everything from orthotic shoes to a new baby-boomer directed product called "sports dentures'. Beltran continues to be a solid all around player and avoids collisions, but never regains his Houston post season form. Carlos Delgado has a fine season, marred only by a controversy in which he refuses on principle to eat tunafish sandwiches served in the clubhouse unless the Wilpons get a letter saying that the fish was line caught. Jeff Wilpon's batty sister-in-law gets in on the act, chaining herself to Billy Wagner's locker, wailing about conditions on his llama farm, until Wagner actually brings in one of the llamas who promptly spits at her.

That's about as far as I got. My time machine's battery was low by the time I got to the end of August. The Mets were in contention at that point, but the jerk I was sitting next to on the subway wouldn't let me see his newspaper, so I didn't see the standings before it was time to go.

Also, there is some possibility that one of the wires in the console is a little stripped, so there is a 35% chance that I slipped off into some alternate universe and none of this is true. That might explain why when I went out to Shea, Flushing was being called "Little Denmark" and all the signs had those o's with the line through them.

KC
Feb 02 2006 10:07 AM

Little early to be hittin' the pumpkin ale, don't ya think jb?

Edgy DC
Feb 02 2006 10:13 AM

Those 12 points of OBP are exciting.

Huzzah, JB.

Willets Point
Feb 02 2006 10:14 AM

I hope this becomes the all-purpose make shit up thread.

old original jb
Feb 02 2006 10:34 AM
Back to the original topic:

Before I owe Rotblatt an apology for an unintended total thread hijack:

1) If this becomes a make up shit thread, then lets leave Rotblatt's original post up as a separate thread.

2) All I'm saying, really, (before I started hallucinating) is that Yogi Berra was right on about making predictions--especially about the future.
It is neat to see things graphed out, but some of the conclusions reached at HBT seem a little overdrawn from fairly modest changes in pitch location and composition.

Yancy Street Gang
Feb 02 2006 10:56 AM

It's not nice to hijack a thread.

I would never do that!

Rotblatt
Feb 02 2006 12:54 PM

I don't mind the hijacking in the slightest--particularly since it's funny--so no apologies necessary.

I mean, I suppose if it you had hijacked a post of mine about some childhood trauma I had experienced to natter on about the ORIGINAL original JB and how he couldn't root for a team if his life depended on it, I'd be a bit miffed . . .

Anyway, I thought the article was nifty more for it's layout of how Glavine changed his pitching style in the second half of 05 than for its projections . . .