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2014 Baseball Prospectus-some not so random Mets entries

batmagadanleadoff Dec 08 2014 11:22 AM

Scatttered entries from BP's 2014 print annual, released just before the start of the 2014 season. R.A. Dickey Win Cy Young Award, climb Kilmanjaro, write best-selling memoir, New Yorker profile; quite a bucket list Dickey's been working on. In 2013, he crossed off another item: disappointing star. It wasn't really his fault - how many knuckleballers have ever been staff aces? Like Mark Buehrle, Dickey got off to a poor start, improving when he found the missing miles per hour on his knuckler, which he threw more than ever last year (as though trying to get a grip on it). For the $25 million he's still owed, Dickey seems a dubious investment, but (again like Buehrle) he's likely to eat innings, and he'll play amicable ambassador to fans (he thanked them in September [2013] for bearing the Jays "agonizing season - you deserve better"). If he can master his pet pitch again, maybe he'll cross Comeback Player of the Year off his list before his contract expires.

batmagadanleadoff Dec 08 2014 11:52 AM Re: 2014 Baseball Prospectus-some not so random Mets entries

Mike Trout What do you do to follow a rookie season in which you reach base nearly 40 percent of the time and smash 65 extra-base hits in 559 at-bats? You reach base 43 percent of the time and tally 10 more extra-base knocks. A lightning-quick bat and tremendous strength give Trout ownership of the inner half of the plate, while a great eye, stick control and reach give him lease to the outer half as well. There is not a pitch he can't muscle to the replica of Pride Rock beyond the Angel Stadium fence. Trout's 10 Batter WARP season was higher than the output of several franchises. If he does not win an MVP award soon, Kanye West might need to jump on a stage to get the job done.

batmagadanleadoff Dec 13 2014 07:38 PM Re: 2014 Baseball Prospectus-some not so random Mets entries

John Mayberry Mayberry is the kind of player a team like the Athletics would creatively utilize. With the Phillies since 2009, however, he has been consistently miscast. He has faced right-handed pitching in more than three-fifths of his career plate appearances despite posting a .668 OPS against them (think Elvis Andrus). He also possesses poor instincts and scant range defensively, but that didn't stop the Phillies from putting him in center when Ben Revere was hurt before the [2013] All-Star Break. Mayberry is a mediocre player who can be quite useful when in capable hands. The Phillies don't have anyone on payroll with such hands. Michael Cuddyer By the Black Ink measure, Cuddyer had his career high at age 34, winning the batting title and leading the league in an offensive category for the first time. By somewhat more sophisticated measures - more sophisticated than batting average, you say? - it wasn't exactly a paradigm-shifting performance. His TAv was very good but not exceptional, his .382 BABIP was 70 points better than his career rate and he managed only four home runs in the second half. Tack on his defensive "contribution" and he was arguably a bit overpriced at $10.5 million, and will be even less of a bargain this year [2014] if he slides further down the defensive spectrum.

batmagadanleadoff Dec 23 2014 02:18 PM Re: 2014 Baseball Prospectus-some not so random Mets entries

Hanley Ramirez For Ramirez, [2013] was a tale of heroism and seduction, bookended by injuries. He tore a ligament in his thumb during the World Baseball Classic and missed the first 24 games of the regular season, and was back in action for just five days before a strained hamstring sent him back to the disabled list. He finally returned on June 4th, one day after Yasiel Puig made his debut, and the pair of sluggers proceeded to ignite something special. Ramirez was a monster, accumulating more offensive VORP than any shortstop in baseball despite appearing in just 86 games, posting a TAv that trailed only Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera and flashing a surprisingly nimble glove for the first time in years. Alas, he was pelted by a Joe Kelly two-seamer in the first game of the NLCS, fracturing a rib that compromised his play at the plate and in the field. This is his walk year, the final season in a six-year deal that looked like a bargain, then a burden, and now a crazy steal once more. He's been hurt in two of the past three seasons, and mediocre in two of the past three seasons, and it's not a stretch to say that he'll double his next contract by being neither in 2014. Troy Tulowitzki Tulowitzki has now topped 150 games just once since 2008. In 2013, the cause of dearth was a rib fracture that held him out from mid-June through mid-July. Despite the slew of unrelated injuries Tulowitzki has suffered over the years, there remains nobody in the league who can come close to topping him at the position. Since 2008, only on-again off-again shortstop Hanley Ramirez has a superior TAv. Tulowitzki is by far the superior defender, and there's a strong argument he's the best player in the National League when healthy. PECOTA says so, and who are we to say otherwise?