Master Index of Archived Threads


There's a 5% chance

Yes

11 votes

No

16 votes

Centerfield Dec 19 2014 07:56 AM

That makes it worth discussing.

Ceetar Dec 19 2014 07:57 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

Well, it was always worth discussing. But the reaction on Twitter makes it look like the Mets are sitting in a room with the Rockies working on paperwork. The letdown (because you know, 5% isn't high) is gonna be painful.

Centerfield Dec 19 2014 07:59 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

I voted No. I think there are big red flags about his health (See Kemp, Matthew). Plus, I think Syndegaard is going to be terrific. Still, it's a tough call. And if Noah ends up being Mike Pelfrey I'm going to be kicking myself.

Edgy MD Dec 19 2014 08:04 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

Maybe the Mets should open an Office of Expectation Management.

batmagadanleadoff Dec 19 2014 08:07 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

That costs money. So 0 to 5% on that idea.

Vic Sage Dec 19 2014 08:14 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

i know Tulo is the best SS in baseball, but when i look at how many injuries he's had, and how many games he's missed, and how half of his great numbers were produced in Coors (not exactly CitiField), and how he's on the wrong side of 30 with a crippling (for the Mets) contract, i have to say no. And its not even about Syndergaard, really. I'm not yet convinced Thor is NOT going to be Mike Pelfrey (or Paul Wilson, or Tim Leary, or... ). But because i know its the kind of deal that, if it DOESN'T work out, will bury the team for years. Tulo is an "all in for this year" kind of move, and i don't think the Mets are there yet. By the time they are ready, it'll be even LESS likely that he'll be productive at CitiField.

Benjamin Grimm Dec 19 2014 08:17 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

I agree with Vic. I'd be reluctant to take Tulowitski even if all the Mets had to give up were some old tomatoes from Joe Pignatano's garden.

Benjamin Grimm Dec 19 2014 08:29 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

Jon Heyman wrote: Considering the Mets' excellent pitching prospect list, the bigger issue may be the money, and if the Mets are to give up top young players they'd expect a decent-sized financial return. Tulowitzki has $118-million remaining over six seasons, which isn't unreasonable considering his immense talent, but the Mets would expect some offset considering the top young players they'd have to surrender in such a deal. The more decent-sized the financial return, the more open to this trade I'd be.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Dec 19 2014 08:37 AM Re: There's a 5% chance Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 19 2014 09:28 AM

Yeah I think you guys are underestimating what Colorado might be willing to do to get rid of Tulo. The Padres got [crossout:33o8caqb]$75 millions[/crossout:33o8caqb] $32 million for taking Kemp. [crossout:33o8caqb]$75[/crossout:33o8caqb] $32 Million! If we are talking real prospects we should be getting back real money. I'm very willing to see where this goes.

Edgy MD Dec 19 2014 08:47 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

Yeah. It's not really about Syndergaard. It's about that contract. It's already killed one GM and it hangs like the Sword of Damocles over his successor. People talk a lot about the Hernandez and Carter and Piazza trades (the Hernandez trade was by far the best), but the Person/Olerud trade has to be considered among the best the team has made, and it was possible because the Jays were suffering serious buyer's remorse on JO's contract, and they sent $5,000,000 along with him. And that was 1996. So, if I'm a Met exec, I want to see what Colorado is willing to eat here. An added upside is, if he does go pear shaped, the Mets current shortstop plan is still in place as their backup plan.

Ceetar Dec 19 2014 08:49 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

Edgy MD wrote: Yeah. It's not really about Syndergaard. It's about that contract. It's already killed one GM and it hangs like the Sword of Damocles over his successor. People talk a lot about the Hernandez and Carter and Piazza trades (the Hernandez trade was by far the best), but the Person/Olerud trade has to be considered among the best the team has made, and it was possible because the Jays were suffering serious buyer's remorse on JO's contract, and they sent $5,000,000 along with him. And that was 1996. So, if I'm a Met exec, I want to see what Colorado is willing to eat here. An added upside is, if he does go pear shaped, the Mets current shortstop plan is still in place as their backup plan. well, would the Mets be sending Flores and/or Tejada along in the deal? I don't really know what the Rockies have, minors/backup wise.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Dec 19 2014 08:51 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

No, Tejada is a dealbreaker.

Edgy MD Dec 19 2014 09:01 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

What the Mets send could certainly compromise their alternative shortstop plans, but the poll says Tulo-for-Syndergaard, so I'm treating the trade (at least the personnel portion of the trade) as just encompassing those two.

Edgy MD Dec 19 2014 09:42 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

My stars, folks are going nuts on the social media over this 5% thingie. 5.1 WAR in just 91 games. You'd be fools not to at least discuss it.

Benjamin Grimm Dec 19 2014 09:47 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

Wait till you see what happens when it hits 7.5%.

sharpie Dec 19 2014 10:00 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

Yes, he's thirty (just) and yes there's a whole bunch of dollars connected to him and yes he has a history of injury, but he's a pretty great ballplayer. Noah might be good, he might not be, but to upgrade our weakest position to make it our strongest position is too tempting for me, especially if Colorado throws some of his salary our way. I vote yes.

d'Kong76 Dec 19 2014 10:33 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

Took no, would rather have Reyes back. (with monetary concessions)

Lefty Specialist Dec 19 2014 10:37 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

If it's straight up with no salary relief it doesn't happen. If there's salary relief enough to make it manageable for the Coupons, the price in prospects in addition to Thor will be such that it doesn't happen. So, checkmate. There'll be lots of talk, but Wilmer's your shortstop come Opening Day.

Ashie62 Dec 19 2014 12:36 PM Re: There's a 5% chance

Yes as a win now move. As far as Noah goes you have to give to get.

Zvon Dec 19 2014 01:33 PM Re: There's a 5% chance

No. I have Noah as untouchable. Pitching wise, Montero is my big chip. d'Kong76 wrote: Took no, would rather have Reyes back. (with monetary concessions) . Whether it worked or not, I'd love to see this^.

Frayed Knot Dec 20 2014 06:42 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

Davidoff preaches patience in any Tulo talks. In the Mets’ most recent conversations with the Rockies, during last week’s Winter Meetings, the Rockies wanted three or four top players — some current major leaguers, some prospects still in the minors — and also wanted the Mets to assume the entire $118 million that Tulowitzki has guaranteed through 2020. That’s a tough ask for a guy coming off the Alex Rodriguez hip surgery [and who] has averaged 111.6 games played over the last seven seasons.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Dec 20 2014 08:59 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

It was 7-0 in favor of "No" when I cast the first "Yes" vote. 8 out of 11 since then!

Edgy MD Dec 20 2014 01:45 PM Re: There's a 5% chance

Frayed Knot wrote: Davidoff preaches patience in any Tulo talks. In the Mets’ most recent conversations with the Rockies, during last week’s Winter Meetings, the Rockies wanted three or four top players — some current major leaguers, some prospects still in the minors — and also wanted the Mets to assume the entire $118 million that Tulowitzki has guaranteed through 2020. That’s a tough ask for a guy coming off the Alex Rodriguez hip surgery [and who] has averaged 111.6 games played over the last seven seasons. That's a lot of nuts.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Dec 20 2014 02:03 PM Re: There's a 5% chance

Okay, if it's gonna be that kind of party, I'm gonna stick my "yes" vote in the mashed potatoes. Along with my dick.

Frayed Knot Dec 20 2014 02:07 PM Re: There's a 5% chance

Yeah, to the theoretical question as to whether I'd deal Syndergaard straight up for Tulowitski I'd say 'Yes' (would that be the most letters ever traded for each other?) - but it doesn't appear as if that offer is ever going to be on the table.

d'Kong76 Dec 20 2014 02:08 PM Re: There's a 5% chance

Things in this thread made better sense when the vote was 8-0 for NO. What the hell happened over night except that the price seemingly went up up and up?

John Cougar Lunchbucket Dec 20 2014 05:20 PM Re: There's a 5% chance

The price isn't going up. The only way the Rockies get anything for Tulo other than a hole in their pocket is to give us a pile of money to take him. We presumably have the prospects they need: How many others do? That's something worth finding out.

Zvon Dec 20 2014 05:31 PM Re: There's a 5% chance

The price isn't going up. The only way the Rockies get anything for Tulo other than a hole in their pocket is to give us a pile of money to take him. We presumably have the prospects they need: How many others do? That's something worth finding out. Bingo. IMO. I liked that article in one of the NY rags today about the Pads eating 29% of his contract, and how if the Rockies did the same we'd be paying Tulo around 15mill a season (82total), which is a great deal. I don't imagine they do that for Montero or down, so it could mean Noah or Wheeler. I'm very leery about that, cuz if we go into 'win now' mode, and Tulo gets hurt and we don't win, it'll be a devastating downer.

Edgy MD Dec 20 2014 07:34 PM Re: There's a 5% chance

Yabbut, that's the thing. They'd still have the current plan as the new backup plan. Part of building this deep system is to become more nimble. Things can go wrong and the team can continue moving forward.

Ashie62 Dec 21 2014 11:05 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

The price isn't going up. The only way the Rockies get anything for Tulo other than a hole in their pocket is to give us a pile of money to take him. We presumably have the prospects they need: How many others do? That's something worth finding out. Bingo. IMO. I liked that article in one of the NY rags today about the Pads eating 29% of his contract, and how if the Rockies did the same we'd be paying Tulo around 15mill a season (82total), which is a great deal. I don't imagine they do that for Montero or down, so it could mean Noah or Wheeler. I'm very leery about that, cuz if we go into 'win now' mode, and Tulo gets hurt and we don't win, it'll be a devastating downer. A devastating downer as opposed to what? The last six seasons.

Zvon Dec 21 2014 01:53 PM Re: There's a 5% chance

The price isn't going up. The only way the Rockies get anything for Tulo other than a hole in their pocket is to give us a pile of money to take him. We presumably have the prospects they need: How many others do? That's something worth finding out. Bingo. IMO. I liked that article in one of the NY rags today about the Pads eating 29% of his contract, and how if the Rockies did the same we'd be paying Tulo around 15mill a season (82total), which is a great deal. I don't imagine they do that for Montero or down, so it could mean Noah or Wheeler. I'm very leery about that, cuz if we go into 'win now' mode, and Tulo gets hurt and we don't win, it'll be a devastating downer. A devastating downer as opposed to what? The last six seasons. To my expectations. My expectations for 2015 are pretty high w/o Tulo. With him, they go thru the roof. If the Mets get him, he's out for a month and the team tanks, that to me would be kinda devastating. Ed has a good point but it all depends on who will be on the bench when the season starts. If we did get Tulo, who would be his backup? Tejada or Flores?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Dec 21 2014 02:50 PM Re: There's a 5% chance

Honestly, I think Flores looks better to me as a supersub with OR without Tulo.

d'Kong76 Dec 21 2014 03:04 PM Re: There's a 5% chance

during last week’s Winter Meetings, the Rockies wanted three or four top players — some current major leaguers, some prospects still in the minors — and also wanted the Mets to assume the entire $118 million that Tulowitzki has guaranteed through 2020. When I said the price was going up it was in response to this.

Zvon Dec 21 2014 03:37 PM Re: There's a 5% chance

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Honestly, I think Flores looks better to me as a supersub with OR without Tulo. But as far as short goes (if we got Tulo, which more than likely we are not going to) aren't we looking for a glove off the bench as a late inning replacement? I don't think of Flores when I think of that role. And that's not saying that Flores would have no role on this team. Just not that one.

Edgy MD Dec 21 2014 04:21 PM Re: There's a 5% chance

The Mets have a good season but fail to get over the top because of an injury, I can live with that. Been there plenty. If it's an effective move, it's an effective move, whether the team is otherwise expected to win 100 games or 50.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Dec 21 2014 08:05 PM Re: There's a 5% chance

Zvon wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Honestly, I think Flores looks better to me as a supersub with OR without Tulo. But as far as short goes (if we got Tulo, which more than likely we are not going to) aren't we looking for a glove off the bench as a late inning replacement? I don't think of Flores when I think of that role. And that's not saying that Flores would have no role on this team. Just not that one. If you have a defensively-strong starter-- which we can obtain in Tulo OR, more cheaply, say... Stephen Drew?-- why would you need a late-innings-defense-first guy on your bench? A guy with a bat (ostensibly) who can fake a bunch of positions is SO much more useful.

Edgy MD Dec 21 2014 08:09 PM Re: There's a 5% chance

Yeah, I don't know how he's going to come out on the other side of surgery, but Tulowitzki has generally been highly regarded as a shortstop.

Zvon Dec 22 2014 11:53 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

Edgy MD wrote: The Mets have a good season but fail to get over the top because of an injury, I can live with that. Been there plenty. If it's an effective move, it's an effective move, whether the team is otherwise expected to win 100 games or 50. I can live with that too. We all could live w/it...we've all been Mets fans for 20-50 years. So we will persevere. I'm talking about getting asses in the seats. Selling tickets. Filling up Citi every weekend. But I suppose if we have a good season, that will follow. I'm almost sold. Depends on who is involved and I might be tempted to go above the Montero Line. But only for Gee, Colon, or Noah(being nice by including Gee & Colon in the talks).

MFS62 Dec 23 2014 08:02 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

If you plot the odds on a typical bell shaped curve, it might look something like this: Probable: 2% Likely Probable 9% Probably probable 13% Somewhat Probable 27% Sort of Unlikely 29% Kind of Unlikely 11% Probably Unlikely 7% Unlikely 3% Which means I chalk it up as a definite maybe. Later

Mets – Willets Point Dec 23 2014 08:10 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

Wrong side of 30, injured, Denver numbers, owed a lot of money? Seems like Troy Tulowitzki's Mets' career has a high chance of going down in history alongside Jim Fregosi, George Foster, Bobby Bonilla, Roberto Alomar, and Tom Glavine. I vote no.

Edgy MD Dec 23 2014 08:26 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

Most of those guys didn't come in owed a particularly large amount of money. Some signed with the Mets themselves for a nice chunk. Alomar had a solid contract, but not out of whack with where his career was. The Mets have done a mostly good job of not taking on other teams' bloated contracts at full freight. Most notable exceptions I can think of are Mo Vaughn and Jeromy Burnitz. Carlos Delgado too. I mostly doubt this deal goes down at all. If it does, I feel confident that it won't be at full freight.

Frayed Knot Dec 23 2014 08:30 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

If you plot the odds on a typical bell shaped curve, it might look something like this: As long as it doesn't resemble a Heath Bell curve - cuz man that would be one odd looking graph!

Ceetar Dec 23 2014 08:33 AM Re: There's a 5% chance

Edgy MD wrote: I mostly doubt this deal goes down at all. If it does, I feel confident that it won't be at full freight. I suspect those are related. It's not going to go down because Colorado is asking for the moon and isn't going to back down.