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I'm Gonna Break Your Thumbs - Gambling Thread

Ceetar Jan 08 2015 10:10 AM

Super Bowl Boxes! Was invited to two $50 a box leagues. Got me thinking, are the odds better if I get two in one, or one in two? Until the numbers are drawn, each box has an equal chance of winning. 1%, plus 4 chances. (ignore that I can win on connected in this pool) so 4/100 per box, or 8/100 total regardless of which two pools I pick. But.. I have the small chance at doubling up if I have the same box in each. It's a crazy small chance, 1/1000, that i have the same box and even smaller that AND win. But.. then I have less coverage so I have a 4/100 chance to win in the same-box scenario, but twice the money. So I have 1000 different combos in the two pool scenarios. 999 of them I have an 8% chance of winning. the other 1 have a 4% chance of winning twice as much. The expecting value of a win is exactly the same. So the question is would you take the infinitesimal drop in probability of winning anything to 7.996% on the .004% chance that you could win say $2000 instead of $1000?

Nymr83 Jan 08 2015 10:21 AM Re: I'm Gonna Break Your Thumbs - Gambling Thread

I'd do the 2 separate pools.

cooby Jan 08 2015 10:35 AM Re: I'm Gonna Break Your Thumbs - Gambling Thread

Cemetery my head is spinning like a roulette wheel Edit: Ceeter not cemetery. Stupid autocorrect

Ceetar Jan 08 2015 11:20 AM Re: I'm Gonna Break Your Thumbs - Gambling Thread

cooby wrote: Cemetery my head is spinning like a roulette wheel Edit: Ceeter not cemetery. Stupid autocorrect I'll give you a third chance.

cooby Jan 08 2015 12:16 PM Re: I'm Gonna Break Your Thumbs - Gambling Thread

Dang. Create Create Create! Ceetar

HahnSolo Jan 08 2015 12:24 PM Re: I'm Gonna Break Your Thumbs - Gambling Thread

I'm not the best odds guy in the world, so I'm probably going to get something wrong here, but hey, it's only the internet... Are the odds really 4/100 on one box? I understand you have four payouts, 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, and Final, but aren't they all 1/100 odds? And yes, I would go with the two different pools. But that's just for fun; you don't really think you have a shot to hit the same number combination on two separate pools?

Ceetar Jan 08 2015 01:06 PM Re: I'm Gonna Break Your Thumbs - Gambling Thread

HahnSolo wrote: I'm not the best odds guy in the world, so I'm probably going to get something wrong here, but hey, it's only the internet... Are the odds really 4/100 on one box? I understand you have four payouts, 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, and Final, but aren't they all 1/100 odds? And yes, I would go with the two different pools. But that's just for fun; you don't really think you have a shot to hit the same number combination on two separate pools? my math up there is fairly embarrassing. working on it. but yeah, 1/100 chance of winning each quarter.

sharpie Jan 08 2015 02:45 PM Re: I'm Gonna Break Your Thumbs - Gambling Thread

I won my office Super Bowl pool last year ($1000 to me and my friend who went in on it with me). I had picked two boxes and ended up with the numbers 3 and 8 both ways. Very early in the 4th quarter those numbers came up. We were screaming our heads off for the rest of the game for nothing to happen. Luckily, both the Colts and Seahawks ran a bunch of running plays and punted all the time. A game that everyone else had probably and should be turning off was thrilling to us. Best Super Bowl ever.

MFS62 Jan 08 2015 03:09 PM Re: I'm Gonna Break Your Thumbs - Gambling Thread

sharpie wrote: Best Super Bowl ever. The best for me, fan-wise and gambling-wise was Super Bowl III. The Jets won, and my bet on the Jets at 7 1/2:1 (man-to-man, the 18 point spread didn't pay off as much) was nice. I bet a week's pay, and if I had lost, wifey would have disemboweled me. Ka-ching! She was happy! And, other than picking one box in SB pools, I haven't bet on a sporting event since. OE: I guess that means one box per grid. Later

Frayed Knot Jan 08 2015 03:31 PM Re: I'm Gonna Break Your Thumbs - Gambling Thread

... I have the small chance at doubling up if I have the same box in each. It's a crazy small chance, 1/1000, that i have the same box and even smaller that AND win. Actually, it's a 1/100 chance that you draw the same number. - Remember that your first draw is a given in that you don't know what it's going to be but it's going to be something. Your draw in a second pool then has exactly 1 of those 100 boxes that will match your 'Game 1' digits. (the odds of drawing a match on a specific combo is 1/1,000 but that's not what you're doing) So if you do get the match then it's 4/100 of 'hitting double' on a winner vs 8/100 by playing twice in one pool or if you draw the (likely) scenario that the two-game strategy doesn't draw identical numbers. Personally I'd go with having different numbers based on the idea that you give yourself better odds of walking out with more money than you walked in with (always the goal IMO) and because you'll have more outcomes to root for (re: Sharpie's experience) which can make a sometimes dull game worth watching. Remember also that (depending on how the pool is set up) a Final Score payout is usually more than the 1Q or 3Q types so even a doubled hit with the one strategy might not pay off as much as a single will with the other and, again, there are greater odds of hitting with a second number.

Ceetar Jan 08 2015 04:06 PM Re: I'm Gonna Break Your Thumbs - Gambling Thread

yeah, my math was really faulty there. did some other calculations too. Doesn't really matter, since it's all just dumb luck. Bonus payout on the adjoining squares as well.

Ashie62 Jan 09 2015 09:09 PM Re: I'm Gonna Break Your Thumbs - Gambling Thread

Never liked boxes. Give me a team, a total, and tails lol.