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2015 Draft

Edgy MD
Feb 09 2015 08:39 AM

With James Shields signing, the last compensation-attached free agent is off the board, which sets the final 2015 draft order.

Mets pick an un-inspiring 53rd and 88th in the top 100 of the 2015 draft. The old way of making up for that would be to try and drop in the foreign market the money you would've spent in the early rounds of the draft, but spending on foreign bonuses has grown more restricted as well. The third way has seemingly been grabbing young, recently drafted talent in the dumpoffs off veteran talent (Davis, Buck, Byrd, Dickey), sometimes by sending a little unspent bonus $$ along. I guess another back door is using later rounds to grab early round talent who slipped back due to presumed college commitments, and seducing them out of school with bonuses well over slot.

Nymr83
Feb 10 2015 07:40 AM
Re: 2015 Draft

A few things stand out:
-Cuddyer wasn't worth giving up that pick, even if the money wasnt so terrible
-Astros pick 2nd for stiffing Brady Aiken? what a fucking joke. I get that they arent going to overhaul the entire draft system, but if they are going to sit here and have slot payments which you are punished for going over and then give compensation picks for unsigned players there needs to be a rule that if you DONT offer a player at least the "slot" payment then you dont get compensation when he doesnt sign. or better yet, you cant draft a guy if you are unwilling to offer him "slot".

Edgy MD
Feb 10 2015 08:58 AM
Re: 2015 Draft

I'm not gonna sweat it. Here are the #15 overall picks from 1991–2000:

YearDrafting TeamPlayerHiLvBonusWAR
1991MILTyrone HillAA??0.0
1992SLNSean LoweMLB??1.7
1993TORChris CarpenterMLB$0.6 million34.6
1994CHNJayson PetersonA+$0.7 million0.0
1995BOSAndy YountA+$1.0 million0.0
1996SDNMatt HalloranAA$1.0 million0.0
1997CHAJason DellaeroMLB$1.1 million-0.9
1998PITClint JohnstonAA$1.0 million0.0
1999CHAJason StummAA$1.8 million0.0
2000PHIChase UtleyMLB$1.8 million61.5


The average number of WAR you're getting from those picks is 9.69. While that may be more than you expect out of Cuddyer over two years (it's more than I expect), that's spread out over a lot more years than two. Beyond that, if you move past the average, you're getting a median return of zero WAR. Beyond that, there are other ways to spend the bonus money that would have gone to Johnny 15.